Everyone Saying We Will Drop

[Clintosaurus 7,942]

12 minutes ago, Webber said:

Where we finish depends on injuries/players available through the season. As it does for all clubs. It’s the single greatest determinant of success, even if the least sexy. 

Yep, and to quote Goody to Mike Sheahan at the Sorrento pub 2021 preseason "if we don't get any major injuries we win it". 

[rpfc 29,007]

6 hours ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

I actually disagree wholeheartedly! I think our year depends largely on the next group stepping up, be it Gus, Rivers, McVee, Salem, Sparrow, Spargo, JVR, Kos, Langdon, Petty, Hunter, Billings & McAdam…

May, Max, Lever, Trac, Viney, Oliver will do their thing no matter what — but the above group is where the heavy-weight of improvement or growth will come, then anything strong (top 10-15 player lvl of perf) from Windsor, JVR, Howes, Kolt, AMW, Fullarton, Adams, Disco is crème!!! But I suspect Windsor might have a roll to play already, which is hard to decipher if it’s a good or bad thing but either speaks to desperate need or a burgeoning, overwhelming talent.

Not how it works. If we don’t get the same or more out of our best - we are an also ran.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,991]

12 hours ago, Docs Demons said:

I'll be putting a few greenies on that!

I did the same with my hanky when reading this thread.

Edited February 7, 2024 by Queanbeyan Demon

[DeeSpencer 26,659]

3 hours ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

Yea, they were.. but it doesn’t change the fact we were the dominant side and we don’t really need to change much at all apart form what we clearly already are working on, being f50 momentum, chain & connection via addressing which players are in that dangerous space (Spargo, Laurie, Windsor, Rivers, Salem, Brayshaw etc) & who’s moving into the i50 space, and where ie shallow AND deep, 15-20m options off of a flare cut or a reverse-lead to create space horizontally, diagonally not just deep and straight or it a pocket, more outside 50m into 50m leads, more swinging of sides with blocks, fake blocks etc it’s an all encompassing strategy that enables more options & better shots, but we’ve still gotta kick em — doesn’t matter who you are, if you keep missing ANYONE will beat you ANY week, simples!

Whilst we played 3/4s of the Pies game on our terms we also never game them any incentive to open the game back up, they were always in front and fought it out that way. They did the same v GWS late in the game. That's the issue with grind it out footy, you have to be extremely good at it to recapture a lead at exactly the right time playing that way.

More run, more skills, more change of direction and creativity with the players you listed above. But that's not always an easy change to flick a switch.

Anyone remember the last time we had a side that made finals a few years in a row and decided they needed to add run and carry?

[Macca 17,121]

Why would anyone take notice of any journo or any ex footballer? 

When it comes to these sorts of predictions they know about as much as the drunk in the pub

And whoever gets it right?  No one as far as I can see.  They might get a few right but lots wrong = no credibility 

2 posters here on this thread have said anywhere between 1st & 12th

What sort of a guess is that?  They may as well have not posted up anything

Edited February 7, 2024 by Macca

[dpositive 1,838]

I hate the emphasis on the gambling industry in our society, and always want to gamble responsibly. 

I know that losses always exceed wins and that winners profit on losers decisions. 

BUT geeeez thats a pretty generous return.

I hope there are many and only demon supporters who win this one as those who dont gamble at all win the flag brag. 

[Roost it far 10,022]

47 minutes ago, Macca said:

Why would anyone take notice of any journo or any ex footballer? 

When it comes to these sorts of predictions they know about as much as the drunk in the pub

And whoever gets it right?  No one as far as I can see.  They might get a few right but lots wrong = no credibility 

2 posters here on this thread have said anywhere between 1st & 12th

What sort of a guess is that?  They may as well have not posted up anything

We get a charmed run with injuries we’ll be hard to beat. If we get injuries to some key players and need to find cover for the likes of Gawn, May, etc we could easily finish 12th. 
You still haven’t had that walk in the sun we talked about have you?

The fact Petty, McAdam and Oliver are all doubtful starters is not making us look all that charmed. Looking at the first 8 rounds and my guess is we’ll be coming from outside the top 4 at the midway mark if we are to win it. 

Edited February 7, 2024 by Roost it far

[leave it to deever 17,614]

It's a fair probability.

I mean there a lot of unknown factors about like Oliver, Petty's fitness and a few others.

But I feel quite confident. It's still a reasonably young life list with a good balance of age and youth.

There are also a lot of players on the list that haven't really been able to show their true colours.

Also a number of players were down on form last year so if they get back to their best I see no reason why we won't be top four again.

[leave it to deever 17,614]

15 hours ago, Where Demons Dare said:

Many coaches and football experts say a player reaches his peak performance around the age of 29 and we have a great core of players in that 26-29 age bracket like Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Brayshaw, Lever, Salem, Fritsch, ANB and Langdon which will keep us in good stead for finals contention over the next few years. With further improvement from Petty, JVR, Rivers, Bowey, Pickett etc. I can see us pushing for the flag this year and in 2025. I'm not sure we'll be top 4, but that hasn't really helped us the last couple of years anyway so as long as we're in the 8 I'm happy. 

Good point.

 I think a players peak is 26 and they maintain it for two to three years.

 

[Macca 17,121]

7 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

You still haven’t had that walk in the sun we talked about have you?

Ha ha! 

It's you that needs that walk in the sun, you might then lose a bit of that misery that consumes you from time to time

1st to 12th hey?  You've just about covered all bases there!  

What were you like in the Bailey & Neeld years when we really were crud?

Or have those years taken their toll?  

[Roost it far 10,022]

49 minutes ago, Macca said:

Ha ha! 

It's you that needs that walk in the sun, you might then lose a bit of that misery that consumes you from time to time

1st to 12th hey?  You've just about covered all bases there!  

What were you like in the Bailey & Neeld years when we really were crud?

Or have those years taken their toll?  

I don’t fully trust this team. I watched us fold when Gawn went down in Rd 2 last year. I’ve watched last years finals again and reckon we’re just that little bit fragile. Unless our A Graders are on the park and our mid range go another level there’s every chance Adelaide, GWS, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton are all above us at years end. More than happy to be proved wrong but that’s how I see it. Believe you me this is the first time in many years I haven’t been very bullish on our prospects.

[Macca 17,121]

6 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I don’t fully trust this team. I watched us fold when Gawn went down in Rd 2 last year. I’ve watched last years finals again and reckon we’re just that little bit fragile. Unless our A Graders are on the park and our mid range go another level there’s every chance Adelaide, GWS, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton are all above us at years end. More than happy to be proved wrong but that’s how I see it. Believe you me this is the first time in many years I haven’t been very bullish on our prospects.

In my view now is the time to be bullish - but we can agree to disagree

My theory on how good a team is how many good to top players a team has

And we have about 15-18

And the coaching is good

For now, that'll do me

[Roost it far 10,022]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

In my view now is the time to be bullish - but we can agree to disagree

My theory on how good a team is how many good to top players a team has

And we have about 15-18

And the coaching is good

For now, that'll do me

I’ll add that as a club we should be filthy on last year and wanting to absolutely prove our mettle. I just don’t have the proof that this is the club atm. We’ve been shown to ever so slightly weaken when we’ve really needed to galvanise and push ahead. Injuries have been a factor but they’re not the reason…….

[layzie 34,527]

They gotta write something.

But they're commenting on a parked car right now. They reserve the right to course-correct their journalism when the cars are all moving. 

[Macca 17,121]

4 minutes ago, layzie said:

They gotta write something.

But they're commenting on a parked car right now. They reserve the right to course-correct their journalism when the cars are all moving. 

In a lot of ways it's a fruitless exercise as no one ever gets if all right so there's no bragging rights

Equally, those that get it horribly wrong just end up pointing out all the others who got it wrong

Did Caro predict that the Tigers would win the flag last year?  If so, what was she thinking?  

[leave it to deever 17,614]

In any case it's going to be a very tight and interesting season.

I'm keen to watch the continuing growth of Jvr.

I'll be wrapped if Petty gets a year of no injuries with Fritta likewise alongside him.

I've also been holding out to see Kozzie go to new heights ( as long as he keeps his feet on the ground).

So it's a big year.

 

[DeeSpencer 26,659]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Why would anyone take notice of any journo or any ex footballer? 

When it comes to these sorts of predictions they know about as much as the drunk in the pub

And whoever gets it right?  No one as far as I can see.  They might get a few right but lots wrong = no credibility 

2 posters here on this thread have said anywhere between 1st & 12th

What sort of a guess is that?  They may as well have not posted up anything

I think it’s entirely sensible.

11 teams finished with a percentage of 107-127% last year. The AFL rules work for parity and parity was the outcome.

Geelong, the 2022 premiers finished 12th. Anyone tip them to fall that far post flag? They should’ve been 11th if they hadn’t tanked the last game but 12 it was.

All of the best 11 teams on percentage last year should be solid again. Something might go drastically wrong for a few of them as it did Freo last year. But that might be a straight swap with any of Freo, GC, Ess or Hawthorn who have the talent to push towards finals.

If our percentage range is 105-130% then our ladder position is probably 1st to 12th. 

Minimal injuries, new players, youngsters taking steps up, quickly adapting to the new game plan and we finish top 4. 

Too many new injuries, the new guys don’t settle, the players take a while to adapt to the game plan and we look a bit physically and mentally spent we could slip outside the 8. 

The last 3 years dominant full ground defending and dominant contested ball in a game plan designed around Max, Oliver, Viney, Tracc, May, Lever has made us close to a sure thing for top 6 (once that style was established in 2021).

I’m happy to be accused of pessimism but I think it’s time we pull the plug on that assumption before it’s pulled on us by the competition. I’d be opening the game up with more pace, skill and risk and if we’re still great defensively then fantastic, we’ll probably be top 4, but it could just as easily be a step back to go forward year.

[Macca 17,121]

34 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think it’s entirely sensible.

11 teams finished with a percentage of 107-127% last year. The AFL rules work for parity and parity was the outcome.

Geelong, the 2022 premiers finished 12th. Anyone tip them to fall that far post flag? They should’ve been 11th if they hadn’t tanked the last game but 12 it was.

All of the best 11 teams on percentage last year should be solid again. Something might go drastically wrong for a few of them as it did Freo last year. But that might be a straight swap with any of Freo, GC, Ess or Hawthorn who have the talent to push towards finals.

If our percentage range is 105-130% then our ladder position is probably 1st to 12th. 

Minimal injuries, new players, youngsters taking steps up, quickly adapting to the new game plan and we finish top 4. 

Too many new injuries, the new guys don’t settle, the players take a while to adapt to the game plan and we look a bit physically and mentally spent we could slip outside the 8. 

The last 3 years dominant full ground defending and dominant contested ball in a game plan designed around Max, Oliver, Viney, Tracc, May, Lever has made us close to a sure thing for top 6 (once that style was established in 2021).

I’m happy to be accused of pessimism but I think it’s time we pull the plug on that assumption before it’s pulled on us by the competition. I’d be opening the game up with more pace, skill and risk and if we’re still great defensively then fantastic, we’ll probably be top 4, but it could just as easily be a step back to go forward year.

I'm probably the most bullish this year than any other year.  But I was reasonably bullish in 2021, 2022 & 2023

Before that, 2018 & 2019 in terms of finals only

2009 - 2017, not confident at all in terms of contending or finals

@old dee went the early crow in 2021 (predicting the flag) and I'd be interested in his thoughts on this year.  

But old dee is a true realist as a few others are (but most here lean optimistic or pessimistic to varying degrees)

But again, I don't take much notice of the scribes.  Most are looking for a headline or are grandstanders.  But we click away don't we?

Edited February 7, 2024 by Macca

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,812]

You can't expect the media to be all over us after what has happened in the last 2 finals series, plus all of the other shenanigans happening.

I believe we are in a better place/position this year than the last two years.

For me it comes down to our starting Forward Trifecta at the start of our 1st final in 24.

If its our 1st choice trifecta in JVR, Petty and Fritta happy days guaranteed GF appearance.

If not then were pushing 5 hit up the hill.

Let them think what they want.

Glad to be flying under the radar Dessie Hasler style.

Edited February 7, 2024 by YesitwasaWin4theAges

[Macca 17,121]

The title of the thread is quite misleading 

It's not everyone 

[TheWiz 787]

To all the haters…

 

 

[seventyfour 1,248]

I can see us missing the top 4. There will be a lot of good teams this year.

That's fine. It'll be frustrating during the year, but we can go under the radar, then win it from outside the top 4.

[DeeZone 10,573]

I’m bullish, statistically what are the chances of being struck down by injuries in 2019, 2022 & 2023 and again in 2024? We will need to be creative in the early rounds but after round zero we will have JVR, Fritta and The Koz plus ANB, Spargo, Chandler, Billing’s and maybe McAdam plus Tracc spending time forward and hopefully Schache playing fwd/ruck. Every club will have injuries but can they cover them?

[Demon Disciple 12,529]

What were our odds for the flag prior to round 1 2021?

No one saw us coming then, nor could the fathom us saluting in 2024. IDGAF.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,812]

2 hours ago, DeeZone said:

I’m bullish, statistically what are the chances of being struck down by injuries in 2019, 2022 & 2023 and again in 2024? We will need to be creative in the early rounds but after round zero we will have JVR, Fritta and The Koz plus ANB, Spargo, Chandler, Billing’s and maybe McAdam plus Tracc spending time forward and hopefully Schache playing fwd/ruck. Every club will have injuries but can they cover them?

Forgot to mention Tracc drifting forward also Clarry key to this happening.