Welcome to Demonland: Jack Billings

[hillie 41]

I’d be interested in picking up Jack Billings. Saints are pushing him out so hardly going to cost much in draft capital. I think if we spread his 2 year contract over 3  years he’s a good james jordan replacement. Think we would like him to push into the midfield and he has ability. We need some depth in the mid with dunstan and jordan and likely harmes off our list. 

[dazzledavey36 54,868]

I'm the same. 

From what I heard this week saints are happy to pay majority of his salary. Been at a club where their development has been really poor for the past 10 years.

Also remember that had we kept pick 2 in the 2013 draft Paul Roos has been on record that Jason Taylor would have picked up Billings, so I'm sure there would be at least some sort of interest. 

The other aspect is the Alan Richardson connection whether that was a positive or negative experience. 

[DeeSpencer 25,681]

Body is shot, and even if it wasn’t he’s either a mediocre wingman or a forward who doesn’t pressure and misses his set shots.

We need pace!

[rpfc 28,386]

I’m a no, but that’s not really against Jack - it’s more that I want to lean into a new focus on what I will call the McVee-Rivers Standard.

Strong counter-attacking HBs, wings, and outside mids who are bold, comfortable with handballing forward, have neat kicks, and provide ‘just in time’ defence - not ‘defence first.’

The difference being that when the ball is in dispute - they are looking to be positive, so that when we intercept - we are off, and when we don’t intercept -we push to block space and get to the corridor.

To me, Billings is a front runner.

Edited October 7, 2023 by rpfc

[Left Foot Snap 2,402]

2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

I’m a no, but that’s not really against Jack - it’s more that I want to lean into a new focus on what I will call the McVee-Rivers Standard.

Strong counter-attacking HBs, wings, and outside mids who are bold, comfortable with handballing forward, have neat kicks, and provide ‘just in time’ defence - not ‘defence first.’

Wow,well put. I would buy what you are selling!

[hillie 41]

I think riv and mcvee are signifficantly positionally different from billings and so can still have both. Brayshaw jordan laurie and harmes minutes he would take if in the seniors. Not riv or mcvee. 
 

i am looking forward to seeing mcvee after another pre season. Work on one on one strength and get him chasing kozzie all pre season. 

[Roost it far 8,260]

12 hours ago, rpfc said:

I’m a no, but that’s not really against Jack - it’s more that I want to lean into a new focus on what I will call the McVee-Rivers Standard.

Strong counter-attacking HBs, wings, and outside mids who are bold, comfortable with handballing forward, have neat kicks, and provide ‘just in time’ defence - not ‘defence first.’

The difference being that when the ball is in dispute - they are looking to be positive, so that when we intercept - we are off, and when we don’t intercept -we push to block space and get to the corridor.

To me, Billings is a front runner.

That goes against how we play. Everyone is lauding the Pies for their “positive” football but in my reality they were the Steven Bradbury of the finals. I like our defensive mindset, it’s tough and uncompromising. I’m certainly in agreement that we need some outside polish and a key forward but I don’t see us making huge changes to a game plan that stacks up against the best. Now Jimmy Gadson my friend, I know you want to out Collingwood Collingwood next year but I just don’t see that happening. Put a fit Petty in there, get Turner to train forward over the preseason, Joel Smith to have an uninterrupted preseason, Fritsch to remain fit, McAdam to have the kind of preseason that has him cherry ripe. Add to that the hoped improvement of Woewodin, Howes and Laurie, a top 5 draft pick and boy oh boy is 24 going to be one sweet ride.

[DubDee 25,848]

Talented player but has only played 11 in last two years. i like him more as a HF. eye for goal great kick. but it would be a risky pick up

remember when he kicked 5 and 30 touches? that was a while back though 

probably a pass 

[Deemac 130]

I would absolutely give him a go from what iv heard he will come cheap a lot of upside 

[Pennant St Dee 13,172]

If the medical and fitness staff give it the thumbs up, worth a look at IMO. Skillful player with good vision and scoreboard impact at his best at 28 still in his good years if the body is right

[rpfc 28,386]

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

That goes against how we play. Everyone is lauding the Pies for their “positive” football but in my reality they were the Steven Bradbury of the finals. I like our defensive mindset, it’s tough and uncompromising. I’m certainly in agreement that we need some outside polish and a key forward but I don’t see us making huge changes to a game plan that stacks up against the best. Now Jimmy Gadson my friend, I know you want to out Collingwood Collingwood next year but I just don’t see that happening. Put a fit Petty in there, get Turner to train forward over the preseason, Joel Smith to have an uninterrupted preseason, Fritsch to remain fit, McAdam to have the kind of preseason that has him cherry ripe. Add to that the hoped improvement of Woewodin, Howes and Laurie, a top 5 draft pick and boy oh boy is 24 going to be one sweet ride.

I know it is an adjustment. We would still have the press but it would give us better looks up forward to our best forwards Fritsch and Pickett in 1-1 situations that may allow us to keep CP5 in the middle longer, or more damaging when he does go forward.

Right now, we are defence first and defence last - all I am trying to do is question that ‘last’ bit and for us to lean into our future - McVee and Rivers - the exact same thing we did with Lever and May to win in 2021.

[58er 6,425]

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

That goes against how we play. Everyone is lauding the Pies for their “positive” football but in my reality they were the Steven Bradbury of the finals. I like our defensive mindset, it’s tough and uncompromising. I’m certainly in agreement that we need some outside polish and a key forward but I don’t see us making huge changes to a game plan that stacks up against the best. Now Jimmy Gadson my friend, I know you want to out Collingwood Collingwood next year but I just don’t see that happening. Put a fit Petty in there, get Turner to train forward over the preseason, Joel Smith to have an uninterrupted preseason, Fritsch to remain fit, McAdam to have the kind of preseason that has him cherry ripe. Add to that the hoped improvement of Woewodin, Howes and Laurie, a top 5 draft pick and boy oh boy is 24 going to be one sweet ride.

If ever I had doubts that we have about 85/90% of the puzzle already you have convinced me. 

Other factors I see as crucial are 

(1)

Kossie cutting out some dumb actions and scouting not flying 

(2) 

We have a back up ruck/forward colt in Fullarton who should provide good support for Maxy and forward line in general

(3)

Not sure why Turner trains forward should be third tall in defence most days and Tommo maybe for big beasts.

(4)

JVR to still continue in ruck generally up forward and some cameos elsewhere to gain experience.

(5) 

Game plan is upgraded in pace and aggression as outlined in rpfc's post.

(6)

Change is made to coach of the forward line after 2 years of failure.

Some of this is tweaking but all are important alterations to outlook and performance. 

[DeeSpencer 25,681]

5 hours ago, DubDee said:

Talented player but has only played 11 in last two years. i like him more as a HF. eye for goal great kick. but it would be a risky pick up

remember when he kicked 5 and 30 touches? that was a while back though 

probably a pass 

Billings has kicked 108 goals and 123 points in his career. For a skilful player he’s a dreadful kick for goal and his field kicking doesn’t stack up either.

We’re getting McAdam - 72 goals, 40 behinds for some forward line depth. 

If we had faith in his body he could do Hunter’s job but we don’t need another Hunter.

Of the perennially injured saints players I’d prefer Dan McKenzie who was looking like a very handy quick wingman before his body blew apart. 

[dazzledavey36 54,868]

8 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Billings has kicked 108 goals and 123 points in his career. For a skilful player he’s a dreadful kick for goal and his field kicking doesn’t stack up either.

We’re getting McAdam - 72 goals, 40 behinds for some forward line depth. 

If we had faith in his body he could do Hunter’s job but we don’t need another Hunter.

Of the perennially injured saints players I’d prefer Dan McKenzie who was looking like a very handy quick wingman before his body blew apart. 

Yeah nah, it does.

[Demonsterative 3,020]

The kid can play. If the Saints are giving him away, he provides options to our list. 

[Roost it far 8,260]

3 hours ago, 58er said:

If ever I had doubts that we have about 85/90% of the puzzle already you have convinced me. 

Other factors I see as crucial are 

(1)

Kossie cutting out some dumb actions and scouting not flying 

(2) 

We have a back up ruck/forward colt in Fullarton who should provide good support for Maxy and forward line in general

(3)

Not sure why Turner trains forward should be third tall in defence most days and Tommo maybe for big beasts.

(4)

JVR to still continue in ruck generally up forward and some cameos elsewhere to gain experience.

(5) 

Game plan is upgraded in pace and aggression as outlined in rpfc's post.

(6)

Change is made to coach of the forward line after 2 years of failure.

Some of this is tweaking but all are important alterations to outlook and performance. 

I mentioned Turner forward for 2 reasons. The first simply because he apparently trained forward and the second, as a backup to allow Petty to play back if needed. I didn’t mention JVR because he’s just tracking beautifully as it is. 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

6 hours ago, DubDee said:

Talented player but has only played 11 in last two years. i like him more as a HF. eye for goal great kick. but it would be a risky pick up

remember when he kicked 5 and 30 touches? that was a while back though 

probably a pass 

What happened to the last saints mid we picked up?

[DeeSpencer 25,681]

32 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Yeah nah, it does.

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. 

If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration.

He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing.

He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

[Roost it far 8,260]

4 hours ago, rpfc said:

I know it is an adjustment. We would still have the press but it would give us better looks up forward to our best forwards Fritsch and Pickett in 1-1 situations that may allow us to keep CP5 in the middle longer, or more damaging when he does go forward.

Right now, we are defence first and defence last - all I am trying to do is question that ‘last’ bit and for us to lean into our future - McVee and Rivers - the exact same thing we did with Lever and May to win in 2021.

I can’t disagree that I’d love to see more space forward of the ball 👍

Edited October 8, 2023 by Roost it far

[djr 1,447]

6 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. 

If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration.

He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing.

He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

His average pressure acts are higher than Spargo.

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

it'll be interesting to see if it becomes a hunter-like situation where the aints effectively give him away for sweet fanny adams just to get him and his salary off their books

[dazzledavey36 54,868]

 

17 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. 

If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration.

He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing.

He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

okay..

So based of your own analysis here then, Josh Daicos who is one of the best outside midfielders in the game, but is yet rated exactly similar to Billings in terms of effective kick efficiency which is above average. 

So does that mean Daicos needs to hit a higher percentage of his kicks as well because of his uncontested style?

[dazzledavey36 54,868]

5 minutes ago, djr said:

His average pressure acts are higher than Spargo.

I think @DeeSpenceris trying to throw a few random analysis that he's randomly made up without research and is now getting found out when stats actually back up the complete opposite to what he's spewing out.

[DeeSpencer 25,681]

45 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I think @DeeSpenceris trying to throw a few random analysis that he's randomly made up without research and is now getting found out when stats actually back up the complete opposite to what he's spewing out.

No, I just think footy stats are incredibly devoid of context. I’m better Daicos had a way higher metres gained than even peak Billings, and in things not measured or freely available - speed of ball movement and risk/kick rating I’m tipping he’d move it faster and to better spots. 

Factors ignored by basic stats but evident when one player is All Aus and the other battles away in the VFL for a lot of games because Ross Lyon doesn’t want to play him. 

Maybe I’ve undersold Billings’ field kicking but aside from the significant injury risk I don’t see him as an upgrade at half forward or on the wing. 

[picket fence 17,146]

Billings would add some Method to our attack at the Pointy end!