NON-MFC: Rd 22 2023

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,465]

11 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If Geelong go 2-0 from here they get to 12.5.

That means the likes of GWS, St Kilda and the Dogs need to win 2 more games to stay in front of them. Carlton might only need 1 win if they can somehow get their percentage in front.

So for St Kilda, factoring in a loss to Geelong, they have to beat Brisbane in Brisbane along with Richmond. Unlikely. That would see Geelong pass St Kilda, which right now is enough to make finals unless a side below them passes them.

For sides below them, they all would have to go 3-0 to pass Geelong on 12.5. That requires Sydney to, for example, beat Adelaide in Adelaide and us. Or requires Adelaide to beat Brisbane in Brisbane and Sydney at home. Or requires Essendon to beat North, GWS (away) and Collingwood.

So, in short, unless you think Geelong is going to lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home, they're still odds on to make finals. Sadly.

I think the Saints are bit of a show against Geelong next week being at Marvel, but yeah, Geelong are near certainties to play finals.

Tonight was not a “must win” for Geelong.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

15 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If Geelong go 2-0 from here they get to 12.5.

That means the likes of GWS, St Kilda and the Dogs need to win 2 more games to stay in front of them. Carlton might only need 1 win if they can somehow get their percentage in front.

So for St Kilda, factoring in a loss to Geelong, they have to beat Brisbane in Brisbane along with Richmond. Unlikely. That would see Geelong pass St Kilda, which right now is enough to make finals unless a side below them passes them.

For sides below them, they all would have to go 3-0 to pass Geelong on 12.5. That requires Sydney to, for example, beat Adelaide in Adelaide and us. Or requires Adelaide to beat Brisbane in Brisbane and Sydney at home. Or requires Essendon to beat North, GWS (away) and Collingwood.

So, in short, unless you think Geelong is going to lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home, they're still odds on to make finals. Sadly.

Last time the bulldogs won at Geelong was 2003...

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,465]

21 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Finished 2 after H&A - totally banged up and out in straight sets. Still a way better follow up season than Cats or Dogs. 

Speaking of Melbourne being banged up in last year’s finals series.

Did anyone hear Fagan on SEN the other week on “Fireball Friday”? He mentioned that Brisbane were severely banged up in their semi final against us and that they were out of juice for the following week’s prelim V Geelong.

Perhaps we just weren’t good enough in September last year.

[binman 39,130]

13 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Pies did not run that game out well hey @binman?!

 

Yes, very interesting.

It's possible they have been doing some sort of pre season loading program because they simply don't have the same run they had in the first half of the season. Nowhere near it.

And they are not running out games like they do at their best. 

And they don't have the run we have atm either. Nowhere near it. We are stronger for longer. 

The alternative is they haven't got their program right and that are simply running out of gas late in the season in the exact same way we did last year (our lack of run late in games at this point in the season was equally apparent).

The latter is probably the more likely scenario becuase after a season of being hunted, they have just played their 4th super physical, taxing game in a row. That has to take a huge toll.

And they have the Lions next Friday night. And finish the season against the bombers, which may not be as taxing but will be a packed house and the bombers may be playing for spot in the finals.

So potentially six taxing games in a row, with Daicos and Moore out and queries on Steele's fitness

I watched the last quarter of out round 22 game against the blues prior to this game and it was full on finals pressure, We then backed up against the Pies for another epic and finished the season at the gabba. I have no doubt that run flattened us. 

[layzie 29,848]

Great game of footy. Collingwood look so good when playing against tired and unfit sides.

Edited August 11, 2023 by layzie

[Wodjathefirst 2,439]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

Yes, very interesting.

It's possible they have been doing some sort of pre season loading program because they simply don't have the same run they had in the first half of the season. Nowhere near it.

And they are not running out games like they do at their best. 

And they don't have the run we have atm either. Nowhere near it. We are stronger for longer. 

The alternative is they haven't got their program right and that are simply running out of gas late in the season in the exact same way we did last year (our lack of run late in games at this point in the season was equally apparent).

The latter is probably the more likely scenario becuase after a season of being hunted, they have just played their 4th super physical, taxing game in a row. That has to take a huge toll.

And they have the Lions next Friday night. And finish the season against the bombers, which may not be as taxing but will be a packed house and the bombers may be playing for spot in the finals.

So potentially six taxing games in a row, with Daicos and Moore out and queries on Steele's fitness

I watched the last quarter of out round 22 game against the blues prior to this game and it was full on finals pressure, We then backed up against the Pies for another epic and finished the season at the gabba. I have no doubt that run flattened us. 

Or dare I say it (and I hope I am oh so wrong) it would be most concerning that they have been loading because they have a few games in the bank at this stage of the season and will be peaking come September.

I repeat, I hope I am wrong and as an aside, and I feel very dirty saying this…. I hope they beat Brisbane next week… in a gruelling and bone crunching games ( for both sides)

[layzie 29,848]

I really don't care how it goes as long as it gives Collingwood the best chance to lose in that first week of the finals.

[titan_uranus 22,852]

31 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think the Saints are bit of a show against Geelong next week being at Marvel, but yeah, Geelong are near certainties to play finals.

Tonight was not a “must win” for Geelong.

I'll fall off my chair if they lose to St Kilda or the Dogs at home.

But if they lose even a single game, finals are highly likely over for them. 11.5 won't cut it. They have no choice but to go 2-0.

[binman 39,130]

21 minutes ago, Wodjathefirst said:

Or dare I say it (and I hope I am oh so wrong) it would be most concerning that they have been loading because they have a few games in the bank at this stage of the season and will be peaking come September.

That's what I meant.

If they have, extremely risky. Unnecessarily so.

One, that would increase the risk of soft tissue injuries (as per selwyn Griffith) at a time when a two to three week injury to a couple of key players (eg Moore hammy, Sidebottom some foot issue) could disrupt their preparation for finals.

Two, they risk losing one of their biggest advantages - the aura of invincibility.

And three surely you want to be coming into finals with a decent block of games where you are playing your best footy?

Let's say they have gone hard on the track.

Well all three of the above risks have come to pass.

Not that it matters if they are loading and are flying in September.

I have had us as premiership favourites all season.

The market is now catching up (my tip - we will be favourites with the bookies on Sunday morning).

Even with no inury concerns, at their fittest and playing their very best football we have them covered.

Edited August 11, 2023 by binman

[Adzman 2,085]

Josh Daicos is the best winger in the AFL. His decision making is elite.

Amazing to think he was thinking of giving it away a few years ago.

Cats are sold and slow and look like they are in for a big fall.

The cats situation is a cautionary tale for all list managers, you have to keep developing and turning your list over. Topping up and holding firm with your vets only works for a little while before it all goes belly up.

 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,018]

1 hour ago, Fork 'em said:

Not sure you remember ours last year.

Yes we went out in straight set but we did finish 2nd after the home and away with a banged up team.

Pussys aren't making it Fork.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,018]

7 minutes ago, Adzman said:

Josh Daicos is the best winger in the AFL. His decision making is elite.

Amazing to think he was thinking of giving it away a few years ago.

Cats are sold and slow and look like they are in for a big fall.

The cats situation is a cautionary tale for all list managers, you have to keep developing and turning your list over. Topping up and holding firm with your vets only works for a little while before it all goes belly up.

 

It just goes to show you how big a leg up they got with their draw coming home last year and how big  their home ground advantage is.

Once Hawkins packs it in it's over.

Finished.

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by YesitwasaWin4theAges

[demon3165 2,128]

2 minutes ago, Adzman said:

Josh Daicos is the best winger in the AFL. His decision making is elite.

Amazing to think he was thinking of giving it away a few years ago.

Cats are sold and slow and look like they are in for a big fall.

The cats situation is a cautionary tale for all list managers, you have to keep developing and turning your list over. Topping up and holding firm with your vets only works for a little while before it all goes belly up.

 

Not so convinced on your first point and the second point they have been saying that for a few years now and they haven't.

[Adzman 2,085]

1 minute ago, demon3165 said:

Not so convinced on your first point and the second point they have been saying that for a few years now and they haven't.

They won't make the 8 and will need to say goodbye to a number of best 22 vets this year and next. They don't have the cattle to come in and replace them. 

They are done.

[binman 39,130]

8 minutes ago, Adzman said:

The cats situation is a cautionary tale for all list managers, you have to keep developing and turning your list over. Topping up and holding firm with your vets only works for a little while before it all goes belly up.

 

To be fair, they have made finals for, what 12 years, won three flags,  made mutiple prelims and played in a losing gf.

That is an amazing record, one that had made it very hard to restock with quality young players through the draft.

Edited August 11, 2023 by binman

[layzie 29,848]

Guess you could say it's been a hell of a toboggan ride.

Jezza was back tonight.

[binman 39,130]

9 hours ago, Wodjathefirst said:

Or dare I say it (and I hope I am oh so wrong) it would be most concerning that they have been loading because they have a few games in the bank at this stage of the season and will be peaking come September.

I repeat, I hope I am wrong and as an aside, and I feel very dirty saying this…. I hope they beat Brisbane next week… in a gruelling and bone crunching games ( for both sides)

We willl win our last three and so it won't matter if the lions win

But yes to a gruelling and bone crunching game ( for both sides).

Edited August 11, 2023 by binman

[Fork 'em 6,583]

22 minutes ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

It just goes to show you how big a leg up they got with their draw coming home last year and how big  their home ground advantage is.

Once Hawkins packs it in it's over.

Finished.

 

Until they buy a farm on the Bellarine Penisula for another young gun.

[Stiff Arm 4,415]

11 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

Until they buy a farm on the Bellarine Penisula for another young gun.

If the AFL had any skerrick of credibility or transparency they'd call this out as a breach of salary cap and fine them to the firey depths of hell.

Alas....

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,465]

41 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

Not so convinced on your first point and the second point they have been saying that for a few years now and they haven't.

I actually agree the poster.

J Daicos is the best winger in the AFL. He was All Australian last year and will earn another this year.

He’s an absolutely brilliant player.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

It’s crazy how few wins can get teams into finals this year, especially seeing how there is an extra game.

 

[Redleg 38,124]

8 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Speaking of Melbourne being banged up in last year’s finals series.

Did anyone hear Fagan on SEN the other week on “Fireball Friday”? He mentioned that Brisbane were severely banged up in their semi final against us and that they were out of juice for the following week’s prelim V Geelong.

Perhaps we just weren’t good enough in September last year.

Or perhaps he is rewriting history, or perhaps we were just more banged up than them.

One side stopped after half time and it wasn’t the Lions. Max as an example could hardly move. Tracc had a broken bone in his leg. Clarry a fractured cheekbone. Ed fractured ribs. Brayshaw a leg injury. Jackson a destroyed commitment to his team mates. Lever I think had an injured ankle. Viney a leg injury and several more.

[Demon17 4,665]

8 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Speaking of Melbourne being banged up in last year’s finals series.

Did anyone hear Fagan on SEN the other week on “Fireball Friday”? He mentioned that Brisbane were severely banged up in their semi final against us and that they were out of juice for the following week’s prelim V Geelong.

Perhaps we just weren’t good enough in September last year.

10 players carried injusries into the Lions final for us.

Fagan's comment simply confirms how damaged we were _Petracca playing with a hairline  for example - and that Lions simply found out by a far superior team in Prelim .

[Demon17 4,665]

19 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Or perhaps he is rewriting history, or perhaps we were just more banged up than them.

One side stopped after half time and it wasn’t the Lions. Max as an example could hardly move. Tracc had a broken bone in his leg. Clarry a fractured cheekbone. Ed fractured ribs. Brayshaw a leg injury. Jackson a destroyed commitment to his team mates. Lever I think had an injured ankle. Viney a leg injury and several more.

You got that right Redleg.  Fagan is suss IMO. 

Giving Lachie Neale votes in Final round last year in an attempt to beat Clarry to coaches award was equivalent to ball tampring I reckon by him.

[DubDee 21,400]

Cats still a decent chance to make finals. depends how many wins the teams around them get obviously. If the Cats win the last two they are a good chance unfortunately 

probably play the blues or dogs round 1 at the G