NON-MFC: Rd 21 2023

[Watson11 2,240]

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form.  If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event.

They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games.  If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

[Jaded No More 68,867]

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

Missed all games yesterday might as well have been on Mars. Catching up on minis now, what a performance by the Hawks! Showed composure where other teams have melted like butter this year. 

Got laughed at for tipping West Coast understandably and got pretty close. Underestimate my tipping ability at your peril.

Hawks had a free hit. That’s what I loved about the game. 
Nobody would have raised an eyebrow if they went on to lose the game in the last or even got smashed for 4 quarters. 
So they had the psychological advantage. We don’t care if you come back and beat us, we won’t go into our shells. We will continue to attack and hunt you. 
It is the perfect mindset to take into a Collingwood game, who scare teams into believing they’ll come back and beat them.  
 

The shine is wearing off and suddenly they aren’t the comeback kings anymore. Take that psychological advantage off them and they’re suddenly just another good side who have glaring weaknesses. 

[Jaded No More 68,867]

1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form.  If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event.

They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games.  If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

Nobody loads in August. Idiotic and fraught with danger. 
You need to hit peak form just about now to carry that into finals.
Pies have played about 10 grand finals in a row. They’ve had to fight and come back multiple times. Had a number of massive hard contested games in a row. They might just be exhausted because it took so much for them to get here. 
If they are loading then good luck to them 🙄
 

[Adam The God 30,123]

6 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form.  If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event.

They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games.  If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

They're not loading. You can't load and then taper in time for finals...

They're suffering from a similar experience to us in 2022. They've been the hunted most of the year, they've been repeatedly tested, and now sides have worked them out.

Edited August 5, 2023 by A F

[Deebauched 1,220]

Ironically, that huge win against Port at AO  made them look  indestructible and their egos understandably exploded . The media already had Pies holding up the Cup and Nick the Great won the Browny and Normy.

Collingwood players must of thought it was just a matter of rolling up at 1/4 time or half time and we'll win it from there.  Wrong!

They would of been better off losing that game against Port.

I remember watching all the pies hugging each other looking ontop of the world. Even degoey was playing well and not getting arrested at discos.

Welcome back to planet earth Collingwood.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Deebauched

[binman 42,631]

27 minutes ago, A F said:

The commentary on the AFL website has the reason for Collingwood's demise yesterday being they didn't treat Hawthorn with respect. Nothing of sides being able to implement the same blueprint to beat them.

No wonder McRae was twitchy in his post presser. 😉

That presser is amazing.

Mcrae looks like he had been on an all night speed bender at a techno club. 

Feedback. I love it.

[Roost it far 8,176]

2 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Should make up the 1% on Lions today if Freo's defence performs reasonably well and prevents a lions blow away score.

I’m backing Freo to win

[BDA 22,735]

 All the talk early in the season about the Hawks tanking was rubbish. It'll be no gimme when we play them in 2 weeks. I expect a tough game.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Still so much to play out the last few weeks.

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Dee Zephyr

[Deebauched 1,220]

1 minute ago, BDA said:

 All the talk early in the season about the Hawks tanking was rubbish. It'll be no gimme when we play them in 2 weeks. I expect a tough game.

Ive been saying just that all season. Some posters are obsessed with tanking.

Hawthorn doesnt have it in their DNA to tank.  And yes, games against the Hawks are always dodgy. Hopefully hawks will be psychologically spent in two weeks and a bit tired. 

[dazzledavey36 54,244]

Anyone finding Collingwoods recent form of late is eerily similar to ours of last year?

Just on Collingwood, Pendlebury and Sidebottom are cooked. Absolute fantastic players but they were incredibly fumbly last night and have been all year.

Pendlebury is slower in the mind now and he's coughing up the ball badly then I've seen him before. He's not as clean poised is what he's been in thr past.

Both their lack of leg speed on top of Mitchell and Adams is starting to show our.

[Roost it far 8,176]

MaCrae at the press conference 
“The games played above the head more than people realise”. That’s a real problem when you’re the Collingwood coach. 😂

[Macca 16,913]

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form.  If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event.

They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games.  If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

Correct but whilst training harder periodically is a very real thing I'm not sure wins and losses can be attributed accordingly.  Certainly not every time.  And if it isn't every time, which times? 

Collingwood may well be loading but is that the reason why they've lost their last 2 games?  No one knows for sure and having a firm view would be guessing

The same argument can be made for Port Adelaide

When we lost 2 games late in the season last year (also, just getting over the line against the Blues) those who were advocating the loading process were in full voice

They may have been right too but again, who knows for sure?

Edited August 6, 2023 by Macca

[Macca 16,913]

I recall that the Crows supposedly started loading towards the end of the season proper before tapering just prior to the finals in '97 & '98

So are teams at their best when tapering?  Does anyone know?  In athletics especially, athletes aren't competing when tapering

Whilst they finished off the season well in '98 (despite losing their first final by 8 goals to the Demons) they did lose 2 of their last 3 in '97

And of course, they won both flags in '97 & '98

The whole subject matter is murky due to the lack of data available.  And the consequences of that often, unknown data

Edited August 6, 2023 by Macca

[binman 42,631]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I may have missed the balanced discussion of Collingwood and loading and recent form.  If it’s good to raising loading whenever we have a dip, then it’s relevant for the Pies. They effectively have had top 2 locked in, finals are still 5 weeks out, and it’s common knowledge that elite athletes peak loads/benefit are 4 weeks before an event.

They are the best 4th qtr team this year but have not run out either of their last 2 games.  If we were clear top 2 and having the same form line (like last year), demonland would be in the middle of a loading/anti-loading war.

I think these are totally reasonable points. 

It is absolutely possible that the Pies evident fatigue and form slump is loading related. I wondered the same thing.

But the conclusion i arrived at is that it is unlikely to be the case. 

You might be right, but i don't think they can be doing it now. 

Teams can only do the extra training loads in and around the bye period, because the two week break gives them some chance to recover. And then maybe a top up after.

Maybe they are still in the post loading phase - they definitely looked fatigued from the get go to my eye. And they never looked like coming back in the last as is their normal modus operandi. But i don't think so.

I would have thought it is way, way too close to finals to not want to be at your very best. Or close to your very best.

It's not just needing time to, for want of better word, taper and be in good shape for finals. Teams also need a few weeks in, or close to, optimal shape to perfect their final's game plan (which only works properly when at full fitness) - and any specific strategies, roles etc. etc.

Take our example.

We have been progressively fresher and running out games from the giants game on. The improvement has been incremental but steady. Each week week stronger and faster for longer. I think we are almost cherry ripe, and will be against the blues next week.

There is no way we play like we did last week in terms of method if we are are not vey close to our optimal shape. We simply would not have the run to implement say the fantastic over lap running or have the ball in constant motion.

Same goes for our wins over the lions and the crow. We need a few weeks of being in top shape to drill our final's method in and play at the elite level we want to play in finals.  

I think it much more likely that the pies were fatigued for the old fashioned reason - two incredibly physically and psychologically draining back to back games against  Port and the blues.

They would not have been able to do anything but recover after those two games - let alone additional loads. No way. And the hawks came out and hunted and smashed them - knowing full well they would be fatigued. 

Port are not fatigued because of loading either i don't think. They are struggling for the same reason as the Pies - back to back epics and now a third.

It is so similar to the last 3 games of our season last year - Pies, Blues and Lions.

I thought we would get there, but really the signs were obvious - we never really had the run in the legs post bye we did in 2021.

When we came up against the pies, we blitzed in the first half but ran out of the steam in the last to go down by 7 in an epic.

We snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the blues the next week, with the Koz wonder goal - but again we were gassed in the last.

We blitzed the Lions at the Gabba by 9 goals  in the last round and i thought we're in top shape - here we go. But again the signs were there - we only kicked 5 goals in the second half, and only one in the last q (we led by 11 goals at half time).

We never got into optimal shape - close, but we just didn't run out out games in the last 6 matches like we did in 2021.

And i have zero doubt those last three games completely flattened us. Even with the pre finals bye, we were gassed and a shell of our best in our two finals. 

That is what Port and the Pies are now experiencing. Except they have it even worse.

Both have just played 3 intense matches in row - with more to come. And i suspect Port and the Pies both have injuries from their games yesterday. 

The Pies have lost two in a row and Port four!

Port have the Giants next week, which even if they win will still be a super tough, physical and taxing game. They play Freo in Perth next and finish the season against the tigers. That is a very tough run.  

And the Pies play the cats next Friday night (off a six day break), the lions at Marvel the following week, which will be incredibly bruising - and finish the season against the Bombers in front of 90k with maybe the bombers needing to win to make finals. Three absolute epic games. And three very, very taxing games. 

That's why yesterdays Cats Port game was so huge.

I reckon Port has to finish second and play week one at AO to have any chance of winning the flag. I cant see them doing so now.

We really need to go nuts today and bank some percentage to ensure we are above the Lions if we finish on equal points with them (go freo!)

Edited August 6, 2023 by binman

[Fork 'em 6,983]

29 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

Ive been saying just that all season. Some posters are obsessed with tanking.

Hawthorn doesnt have it in their DNA to tank. 

Of course they do.
How do ya think they got Franklin, Roughead and Lewis in the 2004 draft.
Picks 2, 5 and 7.

Mitchell has followed Clarkesons template.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Fork 'em

[whatwhat say what 22,684]

7 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

Of course they do.
How do ya think they got Franklin, Roughead and Lewis in the 2004 draft.
Picks 2, 5 and 7.

Mitchell has followed Clarkesons template.

exactly

dorks are the poster children for banking tanking to multiple premierships

[Watson11 2,240]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

I think these are totally reasonable points. 

It is absolutely possible that the Pies evident fatigue and form slump is loading related. I wondered the same thing.

But the conclusion i arrived at is that it is unlikely to be the case. 

You might be right, but i don't think they can be doing it now. 

Teams can only do the extra training loads in and around the bye period, because the two week break gives them some chance to recover. And then maybe a top up after.

Maybe they are still in the post loading phase - they definitely looked fatigued from the get go to my eye. And they never looked like coming back in the last as is their normal modus operandi. But i don't think so.

I would have thought it is way, way too close to finals to not want to be at your very best. Or close to your very best.

It's not just needing time to, for want of better word, taper and be in good shape for finals. Teams also need a few weeks in, or close to, optimal shape to perfect their final's game plan (which only works properly when at full fitness) - and any specific strategies, roles etc. etc.

Take our example.

We have been progressively fresher and running out games from the giants game on. The improvement has been incremental but steady. Each week week stronger and faster for longer. I think we are almost cherry ripe, and will be against the blues next week.

There is no way we play like we did last week in terms of method if we are are not vey close to our optimal shape. We simply would not have the run to implement say the fantastic over lap running or have the ball in constant motion.

Same goes for our wins over the lions and the crow. We need a few weeks of being in top shape to drill our final's method in and play at the elite level we want to play in finals.  

I think it much more likely that the pies were fatigued for the old fashioned reason - two incredibly physically and psychologically draining back to back games against  Port and the blues.

They would not have been able to do anything but recover after those two games - let alone additional loads. No way. And the hawks came out and hunted and smashed them - knowing full well they would be fatigued. 

Port are not fatigued because of loading either i don't think. They are struggling for the same reason as the Pies - back to back epics and now a third.

It is so similar to the last 3 games of our season last year - Pies, Blues and Lions.

I thought we would get there, but really the signs were obvious - we never really had the run in the legs post bye we did in 2021.

When we came up against the pies, we blitzed in the first half but ran out of the steam in the last to go down by 7 in an epic.

We snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the blues the next week, with the Koz wonder goal - but again we were gassed in the last.

We blitzed the Lions at the Gabba by 9 goals  in the last round and i thought we're in top shape - here we go. But again the signs were there - we only kicked 5 goals in the second half, and only one in the last q (we led by 11 goals at half time).

We never got into optimal shape - close, but we just didn't run out out games in the last 6 matches like we did in 2021.

And i have zero doubt those last three games completely flattened us. Even with the pre finals bye, we were gassed and a shell of our best in our two finals. 

That is what Port and the Pies are now experiencing. Except they have it even worse.

Both have just played 3 intense matches in row - with more to come. And i suspect Port and the Pies both have injuries from their games yesterday. 

The Pies have lost two in a row and Port four!

Port have the Giants next week, which even if they win will still be a super tough, physical and taxing game. They play Freo in Perth next and finish the season against the tigers. That is a very tough run.  

And the Pies play the cats next Friday night (off a six day break), the lions at Marvel the following week, which will be incredibly bruising - and finish the season against the Bombers in front of 90k with maybe the bombers needing to win to make finals. Three absolute epic games. And three very, very taxing games. 

That's why today's Cats Port game was so huge.

I reckon Port has to finish second and play week one at AO to have any chance of winning the flag. I cant see them doing so now.

We really need to go nuts today and bank some percentage because to ensure we are above the Lions if we finish on equal points with them (go freo!)

Port are in a different position to pies.  Re loading you can search google scholar on elite performance, loading and tapering, and it’s nonsense that loading needs to be mid season if you want to peak at finals.  In AFL it’s about trying to get extra loads in whenever you can as every bit helps and obviously the bye is a good time to do it. But every other elite sport has peak loads 2-4 weeks before when you want to peak.  As Macca said, the word was the crows did it late in season in 97 and dropped from equal 1st to 4th in their last 4 games but were primed for September.  If any team is going to go all in on loading it’s the Pies right now.  Whether that is the case and a reason for their drop only time will tell but it can’t be ruled out.

As an aside I think the pies are vulnerable and have all season, but I just don’t think the hawks have exposed them any more than the hawks exposed us in 2021.

[Macca 16,913]

2 hours ago, A F said:

They're not loading. You can't load and then taper in time for finals...

They're suffering from a similar experience to us in 2022. They've been the hunted most of the year, they've been repeatedly tested, and now sides have worked them out.

So are teams at their best when tapering? Or close to their best? 

In track & field, athletes aren't competing when tapering

But logic says that T&F athletes may not be at their best when tapering otherwise, why go through the whole loading process?

So if the Pies are tapering (not loading) can't we use the same excuse/reasoning for them? 

Now, I'm no authority on the subject matter, far from it.  I don't believe anyone here can speak about the loading process with authority

There's a distinct lack of data at our disposal so at best, we're guessing, AF

Edited August 6, 2023 by Macca

[Adam The God 30,123]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

So are teams at their best when tapering? Or close to their best? 

In track & field, athletes aren't competing when tapering

But logic says that T&F athletes wouldn't be at their best when tapering otherwise, why go through the whole loading process?

So if the Pies are tapering (not loading) can't we use the same excuse/reasoning for them? 

Now, I'm no authority on the subject matter, far from it.  I don't believe anyone here can speak about the loading process with authority

There's a distinct lack of data at our disposal so at best, we're guessing, AF

Post taper is optimum and then fitness fades progressively from there.

We've got three straight years of evidence on how we approach player management. 

There's a possibility that Collingwood are managing loads, but why would you want to enter the finals with a string of losses?

Historically, the premiers enter the finals series on a run of victories. The only outlier is the Bulldogs.

[titan_uranus 24,970]

2 hours ago, A F said:

The commentary on the AFL website has the reason for Collingwood's demise yesterday being they didn't treat Hawthorn with respect. Nothing of sides being able to implement the same blueprint to beat them.

No wonder McRae was twitchy in his post presser. 😉

They did treat Hawthorn with disrespect. Mitchell had said in the week they were going to tag Daicos but no one tried to help him (compare how we dealt with Starcevich's tag on Trac). Sicily's in AA form and they did nothing to tag him (compare what St Kilda did last week, having been taught that lesson earlier this year). They used the game to drop Cox and try a lineup with one ruckman, without bringing in Frampton.

[Jaded No More 68,867]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Still so much to play out, some are so quick with this stuff.

The media has created a situation where this poor kid can’t win. They made us all believe he’s the best player on planet earth and not in fact a 20 year old in his second season who is bound to have poor games. 
I feel bad for him. Pies will need to manage his mental well being carefully 

[beelzebub 23,313]

The wheels on the bus fall on the ground, on the ground, on the ground....the wheels on the bus fall on the ground...   if its a Black and White one !!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[titan_uranus 24,970]

1 hour ago, A F said:

They're not loading. You can't load and then taper in time for finals...

They're suffering from a similar experience to us in 2022. They've been the hunted most of the year, they've been repeatedly tested, and now sides have worked them out.

On your theory, does loading have to take place mid-season in order to have effect in September? Or does it only take place then because that's when we get the bye and some longer breaks and can therefore afford to do it whilst minimising impact on games?

If it's the latter, why can't Collingwood be doing it now in an effort to increase their aerobic capacity, if they can afford to lose games now because of their ladder position? They're locked into top 4, and nearly locked into top 2.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, BDA said:

 All the talk early in the season about the Hawks tanking was rubbish. It'll be no gimme when we play them in 2 weeks. I expect a tough game.

1 hour ago, Deebauched said:

Ive been saying just that all season. Some posters are obsessed with tanking.

Hawthorn doesnt have it in their DNA to tank.  And yes, games against the Hawks are always dodgy. Hopefully hawks will be psychologically spent in two weeks and a bit tired. 

41 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

Of course they do.
How do ya think they got Franklin, Roughead and Lewis in the 2004 draft.
Picks 2, 5 and 7.

Mitchell has followed Clarkesons template.

This whole tanking speculation discussion involving various teams this year is a whole lot of BS IMV. I've seen no evidence in any game this season of this happening. Yes, lots of poor performances, reversals of form, close wins & losses involving lower-positioned teams (which is not the safest way to tank).

When Melbourne was accused of tanking back in the 2009 season there was clear incentive to do so, because there was a known formula in place that if you won 4 games or less 2 seasons in a row you got a priority draft pick prior to the first round of the draft. That hasn't been the case since the 2012 pre-season. it's been clear from recent performances of both West Coast & North that neither want to finish bottom of the ladder. i.e. even the incentive of getting access to Harley Reid isn't enough to overcome the shame of getting the wooden spoon.