Hypothetical

[Guest MFC4Life]

I woke up this morning feeling incredibly positive and found myself daydreaming about the rest of the season. There are a million things that could happen but what if...

MR. POSTIVITY said...

Round 6-We beat Port Adelaide. Neitz, Jones and Green return and we triumph by 3 goals (W1-L5)

Round 7-Bate, Frawley, Holland, Ward available. Whelan, McLean maybe. We defeat an unsuspecting Bulldogs who have paid us no respect by 4 goals (W2-L5)

Round 8-Whelan, McLean ready to return, however will not be risked with intersate trip. Wheatley available. Honorable loss to WC. Don't care by how much but just want to see the guys bust their guts (W2-L6)

Round 9-Robertson maybe but won't be risked. Big win over kangaroos at MCG on Sunday afternoon (W3-L6)

Round 10-Robertson available. Bartram maybe. Melbourne does not stop runnning all day and runs Adelaide of their feet by 2 goals (W4-L6)

Round 11-Melbourne runs rampant in the last quarter to win by 6 goals as young pies run out of legs (W5-L6)

Round 12-A skilled Melboure 22 defeat Richmond under the Friday night lights (W6-L6)

Round 13-Melboune's renewed confidence at the 'G' continues with a hard fought victory over nemisis Essendon (W7-L6)

Round 14-Melbourne outplay tiring young blues at the MCG by 5 goals (W8-L6)

Round 15-Brisbane Lions pip Melbourne at the post as J. Brown runs rampant at our 'home' game at the GABBA (W8-L7)

Round 16-Melbourne defeat Kangaroos in a tough, tight and ragged contest at Telstra Dome (W9-L7)

Round 17-The AAMI woodoo continues as PA defeat Melbourne at their least favourite ground (W9-L8)

Round 18-At Manuka Oval. 2nd week in a row on the road does not bode well for Melbourne as Sydney overrunn Melbourne in the last quarter (W9-L9)

Round 19-Melbourne surprise Bulldogs again on their home turf (if one can call it that at the dome) to come from behind with a 2 goal victory (W10-L9)

Round 20- All guns blazing. Collingwood are out of legs and succumb to Melbourne by 6 goals (W11-L9)

Round 21-Defiant Dockers dismantle demons on march to final four (W11-L10)

Round 22-Melbourne romp home victory against bottow feeding Carlton at the 'G' (W12-L10)

Melbourne finish 7th or 8th. Yay!!!

then...

FINALS!!!

[Rampaging Demons 1]

Need to win this week....

But I like it!!

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

Well, when you look at it that way, it has a good chance of happening. Love it!!

[demonfanjezza 1]

Thanks for sharing your enthusium MFC4Life

Sounds pretty feasible

But one thing i have to say is that our horror start to the year may come back to bite us

[Rogue 585]

Melbourne finish 7th or 8th. Yay!!!

then...

FINALS!!!

In one sense that'd be great. It's certainly optimistic and might be expecting too much from players who come back from injuries without match fitness, but I guess it's possible.

On the other hand I can't help but feel that we're better off finishing down in the dumps somewhere

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

My Cystal ball.

Round 6 - Port. 26 L

Round 7- WB 9 L

Round 8 - WCE 45 L

Round 9 - Roos 16 W (Finally!!!)

ROund 10 - Adel 19 L

Round 11 - Coll 6 W

Round 12 - Rich 23 W

Round 13 - Ess 9 L

ROund 14 - Carlt 35 W

Round 15 - Bris 14 L

Round 16 - Roos 32 W

Round 17 - Port 42 L

Round 18 - Syd 24 L

Round 19 - WB 16 W

ROund 20 - Coll 23 L

Round 21 - Freo - 30 L

Round 22 - Carlt - 1 W

7 - 15 which means about 13th - 14th.

Can't really expect much more given our injuries, MCG form and serious lack of confidence.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

Finishing 7th or 8th, and making zero impact on the finals once more (you can't win a flag from 7th), will do nothing for our future.

I will never support the club tanking, but finishing 14th or 13th and getting a good draft pick, might be more useful to the club in the long term.

I'd love to make the finals, and win a couple, but that is my selfish desire to see us play in September but I don't think it will necessarily do much for the club.

[Guest dee'viator]

Finishing 7th or 8th, and making zero impact on the finals once more (you can't win a flag from 7th), will do nothing for our future.

I will never support the club tanking, but finishing 14th or 13th and getting a good draft pick, might be more useful to the club in the long term.

I'd love to make the finals, and win a couple, but that is my selfish desire to see us play in September but I don't think it will necessarily do much for the club.

Yep, finishing 14th or 13th would probably net us 2 if not 3 good selections, not to mention the p-reseason picks. Sometimes fate can deal you a painfull hand, but also, 'a red sky @ night' at the same time, the immediate dawn could be a glorious one, take your medicine freddy & drink it, tomorrow you'll be just right...

Ps:- Another Petterd & Frawley await us...

[BrownlowBruce 1]

Finishing 7th or 8th, and making zero impact on the finals once more (you can't win a flag from 7th), will do nothing for our future.

I will never support the club tanking, but finishing 14th or 13th and getting a good draft pick, might be more useful to the club in the long term.

I'd love to make the finals, and win a couple, but that is my selfish desire to see us play in September but I don't think it will necessarily do much for the club.

Hey jaded......

u can win the flag from 7th or 8th

u cant win a flag from 14th or 13th

[Jaded No More 68,974]

Hey jaded......

u can win the flag from 7th or 8th

Really? When was the last time that a team who finished 7th or 8th won a premiership?

The old argument of "you have to be in it to win it" is a load of crap. Positions 5-8 play finals purely to make up numbers and extend the length of finals action. You could win a flag from say 5th IF the top 4 sides were Victorian and you got to play at home both weeks, but even then, not having the double chance or the week off, makes your chances slim.

You can't win a flag from outside the top 4, especially not when the top 4 is occupied mostly by interstate teams. It's very simple really.

[Ash35 425]

Hey jaded......

u can win the flag from 7th or 8th

u cant win a flag from 14th or 13th

Obviously what you say is true, but in the real world, it won't happen.

What benefit would Melbourne get from scraping into the finals with no real chance of winning the premiership?

Whereas finishing around the 11-14 position delivers a good draft pick [don't forget the Judd scenario], plus will leave the playing group hungry to play finals and be successful in the future.

But I get the feeling that the worst case scenario might occur. That Melbourne gradually get their best team together, and you start winning games, but not enough to make finals and finish in around 9th-10th position.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

Obviously what you say is true, but in the real world, it won't happen.

What benefit would Melbourne get from scraping into the finals with no real chance of winning the premiership?

Whereas finishing around the 11-14 position delivers a good draft pick [don't forget the Judd scenario], plus will leave the playing group hungry to play finals and be successful in the future.

It is hardly scraping into the finals if you lose your first 5 games mainly due to incredibly bad luck then come charging. I'm not saying this will happen but we'd have to be a very good side to make if from 0-5. We'll shake the finals IF we make it.

[Yze_Magic 3]

Id rather finish 7th or 8th than bottom 4

What about the value of Finals experience for the likes of Petterd, Frawley, Bate, Mclean, Sylvia, Bell etc...

What about developing a winning culture????

That doesnt happen when you finish down in the dumps

[Freak 100]

Pick 4, 20, 36 would be our first 3 picks if we came as low as 13th like some people have said. Those picks are pretty good but you need to trade a few players to make sure that you have alot more selections in the top 20. i.e. Pick 4, 12,18,20,36. Something like that. This would involves off-loading the likes of Green or someone like this as well as someone else.

[Ash35 425]

It is hardly scraping into the finals if you lose your first 5 games mainly due to incredibly bad luck then come charging. I'm not saying this will happen but we'd have to be a very good side to make if from 0-5. We'll shake the finals IF we make it.

I suppose the point I'm trying to make is that you won't be playing finals this year, so you may as well finish low. Obviously to make it, Melbourne would have to hit their straps, and pretty soon, winning 12 out of the last 17 games [or more likely 13 with your low current percentage of 64].

Yes Y_M, finals experience is probably the one advantage of actually playing finals compared to finishing bottom 4.

As for winning culture, is cruising through season after season finishing middle of the table [6-10] a winning culture? Does that breed success? I reckon success is more likely to come from a group of players who have an ordinary year, and decide as group, that it isn't good enough and are going to do something about.

[Yze_Magic 3]

As for winning culture, is cruising through season after season finishing middle of the table [6-10] a winning culture? Does that breed success? I reckon success is more likely to come from a group of players who have an ordinary year, and decide as group, that it isn't good enough and are going to do something about.

Well if you storm home to win 12 of 17 then you are learning how to win

The first 5 rounds cant be counted as we are breaking every record in the book regarding players used andplayers that have played every game

[Ash35 425]

Well if you storm home to win 12 of 17 then you are learning how to win

The first 5 rounds cant be counted as we are breaking every record in the book regarding players used andplayers that have played every game

Despite all of your positive talk about your club, you sound like someone who doesn't actually rate them.

"Learning how to win"? We're not talking about Carlton here. You talk in most of your threads like it is expected that Melbourne will just [censored] everyone, make top 4, take out the flag, and collect Brownlow medals along the way at will. According to you, Melbourne don't need to learn how to win, they are expected to win.

I agree that winning 12 of 17 creates joy for supporters, valuable finals experience for youngsters [along as Daniher plays them], and possibly some financial incentive in playing finals. But you guys aren't Richmond. Just playing finals for the sake of it shouldn't cut the mustard. If you aren't a serious challenger for the premiership in a particular season, a low finish definately has benefits.

You've played in 4 of the last 5 finals series, yet advanced no further than the semi finals. Surely if you come to the realisation that this year is not going to be your year, getting a top 5 draft pick can only enhance the quality of your list, and then next year, when you would hope the football injury gods are smiling on you, you can restart your premiership tilt.

I suppose to sum up, I don't think your current list is quite good enough to win a premiership, no matter how much "winning culture" and finals experience you pump into it. One of the few ways to improve the list is to receive a high draft choice, which can either be used to draft a future star, or trade for an existing ready made player. I don't advocate tanking games, or setting out not to make finals just for picks etc etc, but if you look at the hand that has been dealt to you so far this season, a top 5 draft pick might be the best result.

[tooly 0]

I woke up this morning feeling incredibly positive and found myself daydreaming about the rest of the season. There are a million things that could happen but what if...

MR. POSTIVITY said...

Round 6-We beat Port Adelaide. Neitz, Jones and Green return and we triumph by 3 goals (W1-L5)

Round 7-Bate, Frawley, Holland, Ward available. Whelan, McLean maybe. We defeat an unsuspecting Bulldogs who have paid us no respect by 4 goals (W2-L5)

Round 8-Whelan, McLean ready to return, however will not be risked with intersate trip. Wheatley available. Honorable loss to WC. Don't care by how much but just want to see the guys bust their guts (W2-L6)

Round 9-Robertson maybe but won't be risked. Big win over kangaroos at MCG on Sunday afternoon (W3-L6)

Round 10-Robertson available. Bartram maybe. Melbourne does not stop runnning all day and runs Adelaide of their feet by 2 goals (W4-L6)

Round 11-Melbourne runs rampant in the last quarter to win by 6 goals as young pies run out of legs (W5-L6)

Round 12-A skilled Melboure 22 defeat Richmond under the Friday night lights (W6-L6)

Round 13-Melboune's renewed confidence at the 'G' continues with a hard fought victory over nemisis Essendon (W7-L6)

Round 14-Melbourne outplay tiring young blues at the MCG by 5 goals (W8-L6)

Round 15-Brisbane Lions pip Melbourne at the post as J. Brown runs rampant at our 'home' game at the GABBA (W8-L7)

Round 16-Melbourne defeat Kangaroos in a tough, tight and ragged contest at Telstra Dome (W9-L7)

Round 17-The AAMI woodoo continues as PA defeat Melbourne at their least favourite ground (W9-L8)

Round 18-At Manuka Oval. 2nd week in a row on the road does not bode well for Melbourne as Sydney overrunn Melbourne in the last quarter (W9-L9)

Round 19-Melbourne surprise Bulldogs again on their home turf (if one can call it that at the dome) to come from behind with a 2 goal victory (W10-L9)

Round 20- All guns blazing. Collingwood are out of legs and succumb to Melbourne by 6 goals (W11-L9)

Round 21-Defiant Dockers dismantle demons on march to final four (W11-L10)

Round 22-Melbourne romp home victory against bottow feeding Carlton at the 'G' (W12-L10)

Melbourne finish 7th or 8th. Yay!!!

then...

FINALS!!!

[Choko 493]

Despite all of your positive talk about your club, you sound like someone who doesn't actually rate them.

"Learning how to win"? We're not talking about Carlton here. You talk in most of your threads like it is expected that Melbourne will just [censored] everyone, make top 4, take out the flag, and collect Brownlow medals along the way at will. According to you, Melbourne don't need to learn how to win, they are expected to win.

I agree that winning 12 of 17 creates joy for supporters, valuable finals experience for youngsters [along as Daniher plays them], and possibly some financial incentive in playing finals. But you guys aren't Richmond. Just playing finals for the sake of it shouldn't cut the mustard. If you aren't a serious challenger for the premiership in a particular season, a low finish definately has benefits.

You've played in 4 of the last 5 finals series, yet advanced no further than the semi finals. Surely if you come to the realisation that this year is not going to be your year, getting a top 5 draft pick can only enhance the quality of your list, and then next year, when you would hope the football injury gods are smiling on you, you can restart your premiership tilt.

I suppose to sum up, I don't think your current list is quite good enough to win a premiership, no matter how much "winning culture" and finals experience you pump into it. One of the few ways to improve the list is to receive a high draft choice, which can either be used to draft a future star, or trade for an existing ready made player. I don't advocate tanking games, or setting out not to make finals just for picks etc etc, but if you look at the hand that has been dealt to you so far this season, a top 5 draft pick might be the best result.

Putting aside our current plight, I don't know if it's true that our list isn't good enough. I'll put it this way. I think the club and FD thought the list was good enough, with a lot of luck and a top 4 position. There's no way Sydney's list was deemed good enough to win a flag until they did.

[tooly 0]

Looking into what you have done looks great. I dont think its going to happen we are looking very flat at the moment even with the players that we have out we need to work on our backline and midfield there is a large gap between Melbourne and say west coast, and Sydney even if we do get into the finals we would be straight out. I would like us to play the kids and get some good players from the draft. lets even hope for judd or Pavlich.

[Ash35 425]

Putting aside our current plight, I don't know if it's true that our list isn't good enough. I'll put it this way. I think the club and FD thought the list was good enough, with a lot of luck and a top 4 position. There's no way Sydney's list was deemed good enough to win a flag until they did.

Sydney is an interest case. I agree, on paper their team didn't look premiership material. But they had been "contenders" for a while. Preliminary final in 2003 and a Semi final in 2004 before winning in 2005. And of course was only a pinch away from being back to back premiers in 2006.

I said in another thread, I don't think Melbournes back line or ruckmen are good enough to win a flag.

Although, as has been pointed out, was West Coasts forward line good enough? Obviously yes.

I wouldn't be upset if Melbourne proved me wrong.

[Choko 493]

Sydney is an interest case. I agree, on paper their team didn't look premiership material. But they had been "contenders" for a while. Preliminary final in 2003 and a Semi final in 2004 before winning in 2005. And of course was only a pinch away from being back to back premiers in 2006.

I said in another thread, I don't think Melbournes back line or ruckmen are good enough to win a flag.

Although, as has been pointed out, was West Coasts forward line good enough? Obviously yes.

I wouldn't be upset if Melbourne proved me wrong.

Theoretically 3 years of finals makes us contenders too.

I wonder if WC's forward would still not be considered up to it if they lost the second GF by a point.

I reckon there's a fair argument premiership teams are rated as such in retrospect.

Having said that, we need to win 1 game, let alone a premiership!

[Ash35 425]

Theoretically 3 years of finals makes us contenders too.

And in those 3 years of finals, Melbourne has finished the home and away season 5th, 7th & 7th, and won only one final.

These days with half of the competition making the finals every year, there is a difference between being a contender, and playing finals.

As for West Coasts forwardline, obviously it's the "weakest" link in a great team. Their midfield and backline is super. But even if West Coast hadn't won last years flag, you could argue that the forwardline kicked enough score to get WCE into two Grand Finals and within a point or two of a premiership.

Melbourne need to win some finals before I'm convinced their weaknesses can be overcome.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

You sum up our situation perfectly Ash.

Getting into the finals but making no impact yet again, does nothing for us. We're forever stuck with middle of the road picks, and no premierships.

That is a sure way of never getting anywhere.

If we have a complete implosion this year, finish bottom 4, do some serious trading and drafting around the core players we believe can win us a flag (and there are a fair few), then we'll be a big chance next year.

Whatever happens, a premiership is out of the question in 2007. I'm sure the club has accepted that, and it will be interesting to see what they do from here on in.