Numbers

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

Seriously though.

We are not a dominant side. We are a side that relies on non game day coaching to win. 
pretty much all our players are worse or breaking even on last year, I think our coaching is worse than last year. 
been thinking it for a while but we won’t pass prelim week if we even make that. 
Last year was a epic run. No repeats here. 
 

truly hope I am wrong. Time will tell.

[dazzledavey36 56,361]

We're not winning it this year. Have accepted this for a number of weeks.

Far too many concerns in all positions of the ground and we are not even close to rectifying them at all.

[3183 Dee 2,917]

We’ve also had a lot more injuries this year, to key players (Lever, Salem, McDonald especially) so have struggled to get consistency in selection. However, the desperation that we showed in 2021 has only been seen in glimpses this year. I’m waiting for the switch to flick, but I get the feeling it’s not going to happen…

[The heart beats true 18,201]

Our draw is harder. Considerably.

Our game plan is the benchmark, so sides have done a LOT of work on us. I saw Justin Longmuir at the ground tonight.

The players are trying their guts out, and giving their all. We had a month less fitness at the end of last year than 2021, and we’ve had a lack of cohesion with injuries - which we didn’t have last year.

Honestly I think a lot is working against us. This is the time to double down and support us more. The footy gods are angry at us, but if we can get right and come good when it matters it will be the most incredible victory.

Get around us. The boys deserve that.

[Guest]

Can it happen? Yes.

Will it happen? I'm not confident.

No way we are going into September with the momentum we had last year. Come final round last year against the Cats and Max's goal after the siren, it was pretty clear that we were most likely on our way to a premiership. 

Our best hope is to win two of the last 4. 15 and 7 should put us in striking range. But we will need a massive turnaround on what we've been doing to go back to back.

[Demon Disciple 12,538]

Our best chance is drawing Geelong in Week 1 of finals at the G, them having a bit of a momentum hiccup, then having the week off ready for a home PF at the G.

we will not win it from outside of the top 4

[dee-tox 4,835]

Last year we were pretty much injury free.

Now we are labouring under the weight of unfit players.

Salem, Gawn, Lever, Oliver, Jackson, BBB, Petty, Langdon, TMac, etc. have all been impacted. 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,468]

Who is winning it then?

Geelong who just scraped past Port?

Brisbane who lost to Essendon a couple of weeks back?

Freo who drew with Richmond last night?

Collingwood who just scraped past North and Adelaide in successive weeks?

Carlton who still look a year away and have fallen at most challenges they've faced this year?

Sydney who have been flakey and up and down all year?

There are no dominant teams this year. Yeah we haven't performed to the level you'd hope and have been inconsistent across games but we still have the star power to turn it on in September. Obviously this is not to say we will but we will give ourselves a crack. To say we are just making up the numbers is insulting.

[The heart beats true 18,201]

  On 23/07/2022 at 14:22, Dr. Gonzo said:

Who is winning it then?

Geelong who just scraped past Port?

Brisbane who lost to Essendon a couple of weeks back?

Freo who drew with Richmond last night?

Collingwood who just scraped past North and Adelaide in successive weeks?

Carlton who still look a year away and have fallen at most challenges they've faced this year?

Sydney who have been flakey and up and down all year?

There are no dominant teams this year. Yeah we haven't performed to the level you'd hope and have been inconsistent across games but we still have the star power to turn it on in September. Obviously this is not to say we will but we will give ourselves a crack. To say we are just making up the numbers is insulting.

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This.Take a good look at the other teams, and you realise we are in this year up to our necks.

A very, very strong argument could be made that had both Port and Melbourne been afforded the same 7 day break as their opponents we’d be on top of the ladder again tonight. It’s a super tight season.

[deanox 10,070]

Definitely not dominant, I wouldn't bet the farm on us.

But one thing is for sure, as a squad they understand what finals footy pressure means and they know the gear they need to get to to win them now.

 

The prelim finalists for the last 4 years:

2021: Melbourne/Bulldogs/Geelong/Port Adelaide 

2020: Richmond/Geelong/Brisbane/Port Adelaide 

2019: Richmond/GWS/Collingwood/Geelong

2018: West Coast/Collingwood/ Richmond/Melbourne

 

Richmond, GWS and Port won't be there.

The Dogs might sneak in, and I know they beat us tonight but honestly I can't see them winning 4 finals straight.

Brisbane played one prelim in a season everything was played in Queensland. They are a good side but I don't think they have the defence to win a flag.

Collingwood have some experience and if they can sneak top 4 could be a threat come September.

Otherwise Melbourne and Geelong are the only teams with that grand final experience right now. Does it solve anything? No. But it actually could help us step up a gear in September even though we've been struggling in June/July.

 

 

[Nascent 9,345]

I maybe wrong but was this around the same time we lost to GWS before reverting to a two tall forward structure, debuting Bowey and going on a 7 game winning streak. Can we do that again please.

[deanox 10,070]

  On 23/07/2022 at 15:15, Nascent said:

I maybe wrong but was this around the same time we lost to GWS before reverting to a two tall forward structure, debuting Bowey and going on a 7 game winning streak. Can we do that again please.

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Unfortunately he has already played his first game.

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

Sure we are in a similar position, others don’t seem as dominant but we have beaten Lions here and Dogs. They are the only 2 teams in the 8 we have beaten.

 

[rufus 1,162]

Season was pretty much summed up by that Bulldogs kick in where we let them stroll the first 30 metres (yep nice strategy) then kick to Ed Langdon in a one on one contest out in the wing, with no other players even close to that contest. He looked like a 7 year old trying to compete with his dad at the park. Embarrassing stuff. We are so non competitive in the air, often in our own D50 (unless we manage to get 2 or 3 guys up in a contest).

We are a poor reigning premier...we don't seemed to have gained any of that winning know how that teams get when they succeed. Unfortunately we really do look a bit like down hill skiiers and at times it has to be said we are a bit soft (it's one extreme to the other, but the softness was supposed to be gone with our great 'new culture').

[Gouga 570]

I am glass half full. We were not going much better this time last year. This squad knows how to win a premiership. 

[The heart beats true 18,201]

  On 23/07/2022 at 21:11, rufus said:

We are a poor reigning premier...we don't seemed to have gained any of that winning know how that teams get when they succeed. Unfortunately we really do look a bit like down hill skiiers and at times it has to be said we are a bit soft (it's one extreme to the other, but the softness was supposed to be gone with our great 'new culture').

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Down hill skiers? Soft? Watch that game again. We tried our heart out, but got undone in the last because we ran out of legs. We have such a tough draw this year. Constantly a day less prep, and often a lot more travel.

To say we are a ‘poor reigning premier’ is laughable. It’s not a matching set. You’ve got to show up and go again - and the second time you have a harder draw and are literally the competition benchmark. Our boys are trying their guts outs. They aren’t soft.

[layzie 34,528]

We lost the lead in the last and never got it back, it never felt like we would get it back. This has happened in this manner 3 times now and it's concerning. If it happened in a final we'd tear the house down.

I hope the media really beats up on how we've beaten 2 top 8 teams amd helps rally us to a win over Freo.

Edited July 23, 2022 by layzie

[Dr. Gonzo 24,468]

  On 23/07/2022 at 20:46, Gorgoroth said:

Sure we are in a similar position, others don’t seem as dominant but we have beaten Lions here and Dogs. They are the only 2 teams in the 8 we have beaten.

 

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That could change in the next 4 weeks

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

  On 23/07/2022 at 14:22, Dr. Gonzo said:

To say we are just making up the numbers is insulting.

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Who wrote that?

Or are you exaggerating for a change?

 

We are not in the same type of form as those around us. And history shows that the teams who are in form in the last month of footy are the ones that win it. No team in the history of the game have one the flag without being in form before september.

So based on that, time is running out.

Edited July 24, 2022 by JimmyGadson

[D4Life 2,584]

  On 23/07/2022 at 15:14, deanox said:

Definitely not dominant, I wouldn't bet the farm on us.

But one thing is for sure, as a squad they understand what finals footy pressure means and they know the gear they need to get to to win them now.

 

The prelim finalists for the last 4 years:

2021: Melbourne/Bulldogs/Geelong/Port Adelaide 

2020: Richmond/Geelong/Brisbane/Port Adelaide 

2019: Richmond/GWS/Collingwood/Geelong

2018: West Coast/Collingwood/ Richmond/Melbourne

 

Richmond, GWS and Port won't be there.

The Dogs might sneak in, and I know they beat us tonight but honestly I can't see them winning 4 finals straight.

Brisbane played one prelim in a season everything was played in Queensland. They are a good side but I don't think they have the defence to win a flag.

Collingwood have some experience and if they can sneak top 4 could be a threat come September.

Otherwise Melbourne and Geelong are the only teams with that grand final experience right now. Does it solve anything? No. But it actually could help us step up a gear in September even though we've been struggling in June/July.

 

 

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Collingwood % is 106 - 10th on ladder, they have ridden their luck and have had a soft draw. They really look like Demons of 2018, actually not as dynamic, our % was in 130s.

In an even year, a soft draw and luck has them approaching top 4, but really analyse their results and they would need to be luckiest team of all time to do anything in the finals.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,468]

  On 24/07/2022 at 00:27, JimmyGadson said:

Who wrote that?

Or are you exaggerating for a change?

 

 

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Umm, the thread is literally titled "Numbers - we are just making them up"

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

  On 24/07/2022 at 00:41, Dr. Gonzo said:

Umm, the thread is literally titled "Numbers - we are just making them up"

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I didn't catch that in my highly emotional state, apologies.

Edited July 24, 2022 by JimmyGadson

[D4Life 2,584]

  On 24/07/2022 at 00:27, JimmyGadson said:

Who wrote that?

Or are you exaggerating for a change?

 

We are not in the same type of form as those around us. And history shows that the teams who are in form in the last month of footy are the ones that win it. No team in the history of the game have one the flag without being in form before september.

So based on that, time is running out.

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Did we lose to the Dogs in round 19 or 20 last year?

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Also.

I did the ladder predictor.

Two wins from the last four against Collingwood and Carlton still had us finishing second which was interesting.

However that was dependant on a couple of losses from Brissy against sides that could beat them and maybe one or two other losses that are more like 50/50 games. No upsets.

Edited July 24, 2022 by JimmyGadson

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

  On 24/07/2022 at 00:17, Dr. Gonzo said:

That could change in the next 4 weeks

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Really hope it does, but we don’t look like we have another gear. Last year we were there abouts and it all gloriously came together. 
This year I reckon we have looked and felt much more disconnected and disorganised. 
As I’ve said, I hope you all quote this in two months time and call me a nonce, but I’ve not seen cause for optimism in a run for quite a long while.