Welcome to Demonland: Jacob Van Rooyen

[Fat Tony 5,074]

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

If you want to be clever about it, you could probably remove Jeremy Cameron as a key forward because he's basically a tall flanker. He's not even in the top 50 for contested marks in the league, behind such behemoths as Callum Wilkie. We play Joel Smith on him. Most importantly, he can do that because Tom Hawkins exists, who is able to do the big man work whilst Cameron plays as a medium.

Curnow is a bit different, but is greatly benefited from getting the second defender after Harry McKay. That allows Curnow to be one on one a lot more because McKay is doing the pack work. It's the same with Riewoldt and Lynch, or Membrey and King, or Fritsch and Brown.

Whatever the case, the most functional forward lines tend to be built around a really tall forward who can create opportunities from the long kick forward (to the wing or inside 50) because defences are so good at forcing long kicks to outnumbered forwards. That's the role JVR is probably going to do but like TMac, he's going going to have to fight very hard to impact as a shorter key forward in that role. 

The style of the game is what's trending the requirement for taller key forwards, rather than vice-versa. Just in the same way that the 'switch everything' style of NBA defence has made wings and tall, long guards (like Giddey) more valuable.

Cameron and Curnow were showing signs of Superstardom right from the beginning because they were elite on the ground and could take hangers. I like Van Rooyen but I don’t see that level of talent. 

I still think he could project as a Weitering type defender but he could be a Mihocek type forward. 

[Mincho Mania 530]

5 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

If you want to be clever about it, you could probably remove Jeremy Cameron as a key forward because he's basically a tall flanker. He's not even in the top 50 for contested marks in the league, behind such behemoths as Callum Wilkie. We play Joel Smith on him. Most importantly, he can do that because Tom Hawkins exists, who is able to do the big man work whilst Cameron plays as a medium.

Curnow is a bit different, but is greatly benefited from getting the second defender after Harry McKay. That allows Curnow to be one on one a lot more because McKay is doing the pack work. It's the same with Riewoldt and Lynch, or Membrey and King, or Fritsch and Brown.

Whatever the case, the most functional forward lines tend to be built around a really tall forward who can create opportunities from the long kick forward (to the wing or inside 50) because defences are so good at forcing long kicks to outnumbered forwards. That's the role JVR is probably going to do but like TMac, he's going going to have to fight very hard to impact as a shorter key forward in that role. 

The style of the game is what's trending the requirement for taller key forwards, rather than vice-versa. Just in the same way that the 'switch everything' style of NBA defence has made wings and tall, long guards (like Giddey) more valuable.

Been telling a Geelong supporting mate for a while now Cameron would look good on the wing, his kicking in to forward 50 is very good

[monoccular 17,317]

3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Cameron and Curnow were showing signs of Superstardom right from the beginning because they were elite on the ground and could take hangers. I like Van Rooyen but I don’t see that level of talent. 

I still think he could project as a Weitering type defender but he could be a Mihocek type forward. 

"Cameron and Curnow were showing signs of Superstardom right from the beginning because they were elite on the ground and could take hangers. I like Van Rooyen but I don’t see that level of talent..."

Tony - I must say I didn't follow either of Cameron nor Curnow in their first year on their respective lists.  Did they fire at senior level in the first half of their first listed years?   We haven't even had a cameo glimpse of JVR at AFL level so it is a bit hard to judge what he could achieve.  I am not suggesting rushing him in early especially not this week in a massive 8 point game in a very hostile environment, but just wondering just how soon these two mentioned actually caught fire.

 

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

I actually view van Rooyen as a very similar player to Jack Reiwoldt, the way he launches at the ball. He also looks a bit like him and has a similar kicking action.

Ideally we would have a 200cm forward to partner him in the future. The good thing is we will be able to lure good players with the possibility of playing finals and winning flags.

 

[binman 41,947]

16 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Cameron and Curnow were showing signs of Superstardom right from the beginning because they were elite on the ground and could take hangers. I like Van Rooyen but I don’t see that level of talent. 

I do.

The most talented forward we have drafted since Hogan. 

Takes his share of hangers, an accurate kick, excellent forward craft, clean hands, good when the ball hits the ground, hard at it - and above all desperate to win the footy and is super, super competitive.

Agree he is undersized for a key forward in today's footy.

Micocek is not a bad comparison size wise, but he plays almost as a pure lead out full forward.

I reckon VR's role in our forward line will be similar to fritters - start deep, lead to the boundary, but also get up the ground and sometimes play as a high half forward.

To thrive, he will need to have two super talls beside him, as per AoBs explanation about modern forward structures, because the old school lead up forward is history (one reason why Hogan hasn't had the impact I thought he would).

It's interesting you mention Curnow and McKay, because I actually think they represent a systemic weakness for the blues. 

By that I mean, the blues fortunes are completely linked to how well those two are going. Limit their impact and the blues have few other scoring options (their small forwards are pretty good, but seem to have dropped off a bit) - as we saw in their loss to the saints on the weekend. 

This creates a significant systemic problem, one the dees and freo are well placed to exploit - stop those two and you stop the blues. 

Our strength is our defensive system, which as has been proven is all but impossible to disrupt. 

The blues two strengths are their ability to win clearances and their gun forwards.

The former is hard to disrupt, unless, like the dees, you have an even better midfield. 

But the latter is relatively easy to disrupt if you apply all team pressure on the last kick inside 50 and have a first class defensive system that uses sophisticated defensive zoning - like the dees and freo.

The dogs face a similar issue with their reliance on Naughton- again as demonstrated on the weekend.

Everyone sees the blues forward line as being the ants pants. And it has become  fashionable to bag ours. Apparently our connection is terrible.

Well you'd expect to see that supposed gap between the two forward lines reflected in the scoring shot/inside 50 ratio.

Yeah, nah.

Tha AFL average for that measure is 43.4%

Carlton, with the forward line to die for apparently, is 9th in the AFL, scoring 43.5% of the time when entering their 50.

The dees, with the supposedly dysfunctional forward line, is 8th in the AFL at 43.6%

If you use the shots at goal measure instead the gap between us and the blues is even greater.

The blues have a shot at goal 46.8% of times they enter their 50 (below the afl average and 12th on that table). 

The dees have a shot at goal 47.7% of times they enter their 50.

The blues goals to inside 50 is below the AFL average (23), but better than ours, albeit not by a huge margin (22.8 to 21.9) - and the gap is probably explained by our method (ie so many kicks to the pocket).

This delusion about our forward line was brilliantly demonstrated straight after the lions win.

As I was leaving the ground, I was listening to the abc post match wrap. Not sure who it was, but he said words to the effect that, yes the dees were  impressive, but he is really concerned about our forward line (Brown down on form, poor 'connection', low contested marks inside 50 yada yada).

Our score to inside 50 for that match was something like 67% - 20% more than the AFL average. Against the team that coming into the match was on top of the ladder.

The dees might have 99 problems (96 of which are related to Bartlett) - but the forward line ain't one.

I think the cats have been smart how they use Cameron to avoid the issue Carlton and the Dogs (and arguably also the lions) face. And Hawkins has slimmed down and gets up the ground more than he did.

It's no coincidence they top the inside 50 scoring ratio table, scoring 46% of the time they go inside 50.

Stats from this excellent site: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

Edited July 6, 2022 by binman

[Fat Tony 5,074]

11 hours ago, monoccular said:

"Cameron and Curnow were showing signs of Superstardom right from the beginning because they were elite on the ground and could take hangers. I like Van Rooyen but I don’t see that level of talent..."

Tony - I must say I didn't follow either of Cameron nor Curnow in their first year on their respective lists.  Did they fire at senior level in the first half of their first listed years?   We haven't even had a cameo glimpse of JVR at AFL level so it is a bit hard to judge what he could achieve.  I am not suggesting rushing him in early especially not this week in a massive 8 point game in a very hostile environment, but just wondering just how soon these two mentioned actually caught fire.

 

Curnow had a rocky first year due to illness and injury and really took off in year 2. (So maybe I am comparing apples and oranges here.)

Cameron kicked 29 goals in GWS's first year when they won only 2 games and had a percentage of 46%. He was very good early on.

I know we are short of good key forwards and blessed with an abundance of key defenders. But I just don't see van Rooyen is being as 'cat like' or quite as skilled as Charlie Curnow, Jeremy Cameron and Jack Reiwoldt, which he would need to be to be a star forward at his size. I will be very happy if he proves me wrong.

That said, we almost certainly have an AFL talent player here. van Rooyen will be a beast, with good judgement in the air and a decent kick.

 

[Fat Tony 5,074]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I do.

The most talented forward we have drafted since Hogan. 

Takes his share of hangers, an accurate kick, excellent forward craft, clean hands, good when the ball hits the ground, hard at it - and above all desperate to win the footy and is super, super competitive.

Agree he is undersized for a key forward in today's footy.

Micocek is not a bad comparison size wise, but he plays almost as a pure lead out full forward.

I reckon VR's role in our forward line will be similar to fritters - start deep, lead to the boundary, but also get up the ground and sometimes play as a high half forward.

To thrive, he will need to have two super talls beside him, as per AoBs explanation about modern forward structures, because the old school lead up forward is history (one reason why Hogan hasn't had the impact I thought he would).

It's interesting you mention Curnow and McKay, because I actually think they represent a systemic weakness for the blues. 

By that I mean, the blues fortunes are completely linked to how well those two are going. Limit their impact and the blues have few other scoring options (their small forwards are pretty good, but seem to have dropped off a bit) - as we saw in their loss to the saints on the weekend. 

This creates a significant systemic problem, one the dees and freo are well placed to exploit - stop those two and you stop the blues. 

Our strength is our defensive system, which as has been proven is all but impossible to disrupt. 

The blues two strengths are their ability to win clearances and their gun forwards.

The former is hard to disrupt, unless, like the dees, you have an even better midfield. 

But the latter is relatively easy to disrupt if you apply all team pressure on the last kick inside 50 and have a first class defensive system that uses sophisticated defensive zoning - like the dees and freo.

The dogs face a similar issue with their reliance on Naughton- again as demonstrated on the weekend.

Everyone sees the blues forward line as being the ants pants. And it has become  fashionable to bag ours. Apparently our connection is terrible.

Well you'd expect to see that supposed gap between the two forward lines reflected in the scoring shot/inside 50 ratio.

Yeah, nah.

Tha AFL average for that measure is 43.4%

Carlton, with the forward line to die for apparently, is 9th in the AFL, scoring 43.5% of the time when entering their 50.

The dees, with the supposedly dysfunctional forward line, is 8th in the AFL at 43.6%

If you use the shots at goal measure instead the gap between us and the blues is even greater.

The blues have a shot at goal 46.8% of times they enter their 50 (below the afl average and 12th on that table). 

The dees have a shot at goal 47.7% of times they enter their 50.

The blues goals to inside 50 is below the AFL average (23), but better than ours, albeit not by a huge margin (22.8 to 21.9) - and the gap is probably explained by our method (ie so many kicks to the pocket).

This delusion about our forward line was brilliantly demonstrated straight after the lions win.

As I was leaving the ground, I was listening to the abc post match wrap. Not sure who it was, but he said words to the effect that, yes the dees were  impressive, but he is really concerned about our forward line (Brown down on form, poor 'connection', low contested marks inside 50 yada yada).

Our score to inside 50 for that match was something like 67% - 20% more than the AFL average. Against the team that coming into the match was on top of the ladder.

The dees might have 99 problems (96 of which are related to Bartlett) - but the forward line ain't one.

I think the cats have been smart how they use Cameron to avoid the issue Carlton and the Dogs (and arguably also the lions) face. And Hawkins has slimmed down and gets up the ground more than he did.

It's no coincidence they top the inside 50 scoring ratio table, scoring 46% of the time they go inside 50.

Stats from this excellent site: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

Really? I hope you are right about van Rooyen but Cameron and Curnow are top 2 in the Coleman!

And we would be unbeatable with Carlton's key forwards. Ben Brown is dropping too many marks when he is getting hands to the ball and picks and chooses when to go hard. Weideman has stagnated. TMac was good before injury but ordinary early in the year.

[binman 41,947]

3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Really? I hope you are right about van Rooyen but Cameron and Curnow are top 2 in the Coleman!

And we would be unbeatable with Carlton's key forwards. Ben Brown is dropping too many marks when he is getting hands to the ball and picks and chooses when to go hard. Weideman has stagnated. TMac was good before injury but ordinary early in the year.

Cameron and Curnow are top 2 in the Coleman NOW. They were both excellent junior players, as was JVR, but until they started playing senior footy all they had was potential to be stars in the AFL. 

JVR is in his first season of AFL football and hasn't yet done a full AFL preseason. All he has is potential too. But there's not much skill predicting a player will be star AFTER they have become one. 

Don't get me wrong, they are both stars, but McKay  and Curnow would face exactly the same problems Brown face if they played for us:

• constantly having to fly for the ball in big packs that include both two key forwards and often the resting ruck too
• super crowded forward line and therefore no space and no clear leading lanes (they both, like Naughton, get a lot of their goals from leads)
• lots of kicks to the pockets, meaning even if they are able to clunk a mark in a big pack of players, the resulting shot is from the boundary 

And if McKay and Curnow played for us, both would have to get much, much, much fitter to match the distances Brown and Tmac have to run every game.

They would also both have to be prepared to sacrifice their own game for the betterment of the team.

Brown and Tmac  spend a fair bit of time well up the ground and running between the 50 metre arcs. They are often gassed when they get back inside 50, which impacts their forward craft, but it also means they are not going to kick as many goals as key forwards, like McKay and Curnow, who spend more time inside their 50.

Edited July 6, 2022 by binman

[manny100 1,388]

Looks like we will be giving JvR plenty of time to develop. Already put on 5kg and will add more before next season. A good preseason and her may play a few games next season.

He will be prepared for when B Brown and or TMac finish or lose form.

[spirit of norm smith 15,124]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:39 AM, spirit of norm smith said:

JVR. Good call. It’s a Yes from me. Need to consider key position forwards. He looked like a talent in the WA-SA game. Definitely a good strategy to grab him if available and then be comfortable that he would have at least 2 years development.  I would see him as a assume the Tmcd role in my view as an agile CHF for 2024.  

Too early to debut this week. I thought we could develop him over 2022 and 2023 and get him in the gym to let his body develop. Preferred to see him physically mature at Casey in next 2 yrs and come in as a 21yo. 
But Weid’s softness and Tmcd injury has exposed our key forward deficiency.  
Too early to debut? 

[Redleg 40,130]

I think he would be fine if picked.

[Demon Dynasty 17,092]

6 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Too early to debut this week. I thought we could develop him over 2022 and 2023 and get him in the gym to let his body develop. Preferred to see him physically mature at Casey in next 2 yrs and come in as a 21yo. 
But Weid’s softness and Tmcd injury has exposed our key forward deficiency.  
Too early to debut? 

He will be fine for a debut this week.  Would happily have him come in for Fritsch for a short stint or as long as he deserves to hold the spot.

The whole forward line needs to be put on notice and a rocket sent.

Aside from Macca and a few cameos here &  there they've been bog ordinary most of the year and may well cost as the double chance etc.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[Fritta and Turner 4,181]

JVR certainly has the smarts to play AFL.  Is he ready for the hurly burly?

[Redleg 40,130]

People thinking Fritsch will be dropped this week are deluded. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,092]

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

People thinking Fritsch will be dropped this week are deluded. 

Im not a believer Mr Leg but it will be a missed opportunity if he isn't and sends a very poor message to the rest of the playing group.

Need to stop the rot .... and no better time than the present.

[Demon Dynasty 17,092]

10 minutes ago, Jontee said:

JVR certainly has the smarts to play AFL.  Is he ready for the hurly burly?

100% ready jontee.  Will he last more than a few weeks in that hurly burly?  I doubt it but i reckon this week's as good as any to roll the die

[Redleg 40,130]

3 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Im not a believer Mr Leg but it will be a missed opportunity if he isn't and sends a very poor message to the rest of the playing group.

Need to stop the rot .... and no better time than the present.

Drop our best marking forward and goal kicker because he missed a pass. Wow that would send a great message to his team mates and also rob us of one of our few forward weapons.

[Demon Dynasty 17,092]

7 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Drop our best marking forward and goal kicker because he missed a pass. Wow that would send a great message to his team mates and also rob us of one of our few forward weapons.

More than just last week Red what have you been watching?

We robbed ourselves of a key back and probably a win a few weeks back to send a message.  Could have just as easily  fined him or put him on notice.

I also have faith that JVR will make a decent fist of things (in the short term).

Edited July 9, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[Redleg 40,130]

14 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

More than just last week Red what have you been watching?

We robbed ourselves of a key back and probably a win a few weeks back to send a message.  Could have just as easily  fined him or put him on notice.

I also have faith that JVR will make a decent fist of things (in the short term).

You want Fritsch dropped because he didn’t handball to Petracca in an earlier game and didn’t pass to Langdon this week, who he may not have seen.

Well we disagree on that.

We agree on JVR, who I think would not be out of place in the AFL, but maybe not this week in the Alice.

[Demon17 5,054]

26 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Drop our best marking forward and goal kicker because he missed a pass. Wow that would send a great message to his team mates and also rob us of one of our few forward weapons.

Fritsch operates on the here and now and never doubts himself.  Exhibit A is the goal in the Lions game fed to him by Clarry in traffic and a lightning quick snap by Bailey was a game winner.

Same for the Thursday night issue. Luke Hodge believes this is how he thinks but will know he should have passed to Langdon . 

A simple message on Monday and he'll improve but lets not dump on the kid who got us back into the GF when all was lost.  He's still only 24 and still learning.

[Pennant St Dee 12,659]

53 minutes ago, Redleg said:

People thinking Fritsch will be dropped this week are deluded. 

Almost as delusional as those expecting Selwood to get suspended for a kicking in danger

[whatwhat say what 22,122]

fwiw i think it's disingenuous to look at players solely by their goals record

i don't know if it's available, but is there record keeping for avg. per game of being the targets for i50 kicks?

i still the best structure is two talls, a medium tall, three smalls - basically what we played for the majority of last year and where we are clearly currently missing plugger mac as the lead-up player and second tall forward

i would wager fritta - who i'd say is our medium tall - would actually be our #1 target i50, but that's just guessing

Edited July 9, 2022 by whatwhat say what

[Redleg 40,130]

8 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Almost as delusional as those expecting Selwood to get suspended for a kicking in danger

Are you referring to me?

[Pennant St Dee 12,659]

16 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Are you referring to me?

No not you Redleg, read the Clayton Oliver injury thread, I love the Dees and Clarrie but some of the comments are embarrassing from so called watchers of footy

[Lord Nev 13,512]

28 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i would wager fritta - who i'd say is our medium tall - would actually be our #1 target i50, but that's just guessing

This is back from 23rd June so may no longer be accurate but wouldn't think much would have changed in Brown and Fritsch's positions.

"Of the top 50 most used Inside 50 targets in the league, Gawn is sitting 47th for the percentage of times his team scores when he is the target (33.3%). It’s worse reading when Melbourne’s most used target, Ben Brown, is sitting at 46th (34.2%)."

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