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So given lockdowns, a bit more exposure to other Football this year and the unknown about the potential inclusions of some NGA and Father Son prospects to the Demons title defence for next year, I have decided to do a Phantom Draft for the first time in about 7 or 8 years!  Have waited until trade period is over, so that I know who has what pick and I'm also putting my Mathematician hat on and figuring out points and picks exchanged for bids etc.

I have only done the first two rounds of the draft and also note there's the potential for trading of picks up until draft night. I will mention at the end the spot I see Melbourne has an opportunity to perhaps cash in as well regarding trading of picks. So without further delay, here it is.

2021 AFL NATIONAL PHANTOM DRAFT

ROUND 1

Pick 1: North Melbourne

JASON HORNE-FRANCIS

Midfielder
183cm/77kg
21/6/03
South Adelaide/South Australia

It was an epic finish to Horne-Francis' SANFL career last week when the star prospect had 24 disposals and booted 3.3 in a best-afield performance for South Adelaide in their preliminary final loss. It was a dynamic performance from the 18-year-old to end what has been an exciting campaign for him after his eye-catching senior displays last year. Horne-Francis is tough, aggressive, brilliant when the ball is up for grabs and is ready to play, with North Melbourne set to swoop on him.

Pick 2: Bid on by GWS. Bid matched by Western Bulldogs who trade Picks 23, 43, 44, 45 & 52 to the AFL for Picks 2, 62 & three picks at the end of the draft.

SAM DARCY

Forward/defender
204cm/75kg
19/7/03
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro

If there's a silver lining for the Western Bulldogs after their Grand Final defeat it is that they will have first access to father-son prospect and potential top-three pick Sam Darcy at November's draft. The 204cm key forward in the mould of Max and Ben King is athletic, he marks well as a tall option and kicks goals, including six for Vic Metro in a clash with Vic Country. Darcy is quick on his feet for a player his size, hits contests well and also can play in the ruck, where his father, former Bulldogs big man Luke, played through his career.

Pick 3: Bid on by GWS. Bid matched by Collingwood who trade Picks 27, 36, 43 & 45 to the AFL for Picks 3, 61 & two picks at the end of the draft.

NICK DAICOS

Midfielder
183cm/72kg
3/1/03
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro

Daicos is off to Collingwood on a four-year deal that was announced in August. The midfielder is clearly one of the best prospects to come through the draft in recent years: a prolific ball-winner (he averaged 36 disposals and two goals at NAB League level), perhaps his greatest strength is his capacity to make good decisions, execute his plans and impact games. Not only can he accumulate, he can hurt and he's fun to watch when he squeezes past opponents and pulls out tricks nobody can match. Is equally driven and determined as he is talented.

Pick 4: GWS

JOSH GIBCUS

Key defender
195cm/84kg
4/4/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country

A leading key defender in this year's pool, Gibcus is an aerial threat who enjoys jumping in and chopping off marks. He doesn't get many goals kicked on him and is also capable of starting an offensive chain with his marking. Some clubs see him as a top-10 talent given the difficulty of finding tall defenders within this group.  GWS may see him and Sam Taylor as a potential duo to hold down Full Back and Centre Half Back for the next decade.

Pick 5: Gold Coast

FINN CALLAGHAN

Midfielder
189cm/82kg
26/4/03
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

Callaghan worked his way up the draft board from the very start of the season, with his line-breaking run and carry and sizzling left-foot kicking on show in a Sandringham practice game and catching the attention of scouts. Thereafter he continued to be a key player, mainly as a tall wingman but also in stints as an inside midfielder where he showed he could use his body and frame to make an impact. Callaghan shapes as a top-five pick and belongs in that company given his skillset.  A very Gold Coast type pick here.

Pick 6: Adelaide

BEN HOBBS

Midfielder
183cm/80kg
16/9/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country

A hard-headed inside midfield option who just kept on putting strong performances on the board. Hobbs overcame an ankle injury early in the year to then go on a ball-winning blitz that catapulted him into top-10 calculations. Hobbs is strongly built and plays with an intensity not matched by many midfielders in the top rungs of the draft. He was Vic Country's best player against Vic Metro when he had 25 disposals, seven clearances and 11 tackles and he averaged 30 disposals in his five completed NAB League games.

Pick 7: Hawthorn

JOSH WARD

Midfielder
181cm/79kg
15/8/03
Northern Knights/Vic Metro

Ward's relentless running, strong character and consistent performances have seen him rise as the year has gone on. The Northern Knights prospect starred for Vic Metro against Vic Country in the mid-year carnival game with 29 disposals, two goals and eight clearances and he showed his attacking streak as the season developed. Clubs view him as a potential future leader as well.

Pick 8: Fremantle

JYE AMISS

Key forward
195cm/83kg
31/7/03
East Perth/Western Australia

A knee injury in Western Australia's under-19 curtain-raiser against South Australia on Grand Final day meant Amiss' season ended the wrong way after a couple of quiet weeks in the colts. But the 18-year-old's impact across the season cannot be denied and has absolutely registered with clubs, with Amiss booting 53 goals in East Perth's colts season. He is smart inside-50, a crafty and efficient finisher and just knows how to hit the scoreboard. One who is definitely in the top-10 mix, especially with Fremantle searching for key forwards.

Pick 9: Richmond

JOSH RACHELLE

Forward/midfielder
180cm/78kg
11/4/03
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country

Rachele is the best pure small forward in this year's draft, but has also proved he can go into the midfield and make things happen around him. The Murray Bushrangers prospect is an exciting attacking option who reads the ball well in the air, goes for his marks and also can stay on the ground and take the crumbs. He likes kicking goals and there's perhaps a bit of Western Bulldogs youngster Cody Weightman in the way he can do things usually not expected of the smaller types. He kicked six goals in a game for the Bushrangers this year in his best NAB League outing.

Pick 10: Fremantle

NEIL ERASMUS

Midfielder/forward
188cm/80kg
2/12/03
Subiaco/Western Australia

Erasmus was sidelined with a leg injury for the past month of his draft season after a corkie bled further than hoped. It meant the West Australian talent sat out both of his state's under-19 clashes with South Australia, a disappointment given club recruiters had been keen to see his dominance at that level. Nevertheless Erasmus' qualities have been on show enough: he's a tall, hard-working, bust-a-gut midfielder who can push forward and kick goals as well as rip the ball out of the centre.

Pick 11: St Kilda

MAC ANDREW

Ruckman
200cm/70kg
12/4/03
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country

There is a reason for the hype around Andrew. Actually, there's a few reasons. He can jump, he competes, he's athletic, he kicks goals, he takes marks and he's versatile. Throw in the fact he does all of that at 200cm and it's an exciting package. Andrew is a member of Melbourne's Next Generation Academy but won't end up there as the Dees won't be able to match top-20 picks under the new Academy rules. The Egyptian-born South Sudanese prospect looks bound for the top 15.

Pick 12: West Coast

MATTHEW JOHNSON

Midfielder
192cm/80kg
16/3/03
Subiaco/Western Australia

Was named Western Australia's best in its win over South Australia in the under-19s curtain-raiser on Grand Final day. The tall midfielder had 20 disposals, five clearances and nine tackles and once again proved that he can do things other midfielders can't with his size, backing up his impressive first carnival game for WA a month earlier. A rising talent with many pieces to his game.

Pick 13: Essendon

NASIAH WANGANEEN-MILERA

Midfielder
187cm/69kg
22/2/03
Glenelg/South Australia

Wanganeen-Milera's dazzling foot skills have seen him rocket into top-10 contention late in the campaign. The nephew of Port Adelaide and Essendon champion Gavin was a standout in SA's first game against Western Australia with a poised showing and again had some strong moments in last week's curtain-raiser with 15 disposals and four inside-50s against WA. Clubs view him as the best kick in the draft and the wingman can certainly deliver it on a platter to his forwards.

Pick 14: Port Adelaide

ARLO DRAPER

Midfielder/forward
185cm/71kg
20/1/03
South Adelaide/South Australia

Draper's season ended in an unfortunate way, with the exciting and versatile South Australian suffering an AC joint shoulder injury in the curtain-raiser state game against Western Australia. It will make for an interrupted preparation for Draper's first AFL pre-season but clubs were well aware of his talents. In one of his last games Draper was stationed across half-back as an attacking and creative option, a spot largely unfamiliar to him this season having played as a midfielder and half-forward. But he makes good decisions with the ball, delivers it well and brings some X-factor.

Pick 15: GWS

SAM BUTLER

Midfielder/forward
184cm/73kg
10/2/03
Greater Western Victoria Rebels/Vic Country

It would have been interesting to see how high Butler's stocks could have risen with a full year of football this season after an exciting first half of the year. The younger brother of St Kilda's Dan is a midfielder primarily who can zip forward too, he makes good decisions in tight, competes well for the ball at ground level and has a bit of spark to his game. A sternum injury mid-year ruled him out of games before his last appearance was a 27-disposal effort for the Rebels. Butler may find himself playing across half forward for GWS who as has been advertised are lacking small forward depth. Will get to play alongside his Rebels teammate Gibcus.

Pick 16: Brisbane

JOSH SINN

Half-back/midfielder
186cm/73kg
7/1/03
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

Sinn's speed and line-breaking run was on show earlier this season for the Sandringham Dragons before a hamstring injury kept him out of action for two months. He returned to play in Vic Metro's carnival game against Vic Country but then hurt his ankle and didn't get to play again. The left-footer's pace is definitely a weapon and he can bound out of defence and quickly get the ball inside 50 for his side. A spot in the Brisbane team is there for the taking given the departures over recent seasons of Hodge, Witherton and Birchall, coupled with Brisbane’s lack of run.

Pick 17: Richmond

JOSH GOATER

Midfielder
190cm/79kg
2/6/03
Calder Cannons/Vic Metro

Recruiters look for athletic upside in players and Goater has plenty of that. The 190cm midfielder is agile, quick, can jump and uses his height to advantage around the ball and ground. His season finished with a 28-disposal, 11-mark and eight-rebound-50 game in early August while he also had 23 disposals and eight clearances for Vic Metro against Vic Country. It wouldn't shock to see Goater go a little higher on draft night.

Pick 18: Sydney

TYLER SONSIE

Midfielder
181cm/77kg
27/1/03
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro

Because of the disruptions of this year's football again in Victoria, and Sonsie's knee injury that kept him out of action mid-year, the Eastern Ranges prospect will be an interesting watch at the draft. Clubs know his talent as a ball-getter and goalkicker through the midfield with some standout games with the Ranges as well as an excellent VFL game for the Box Hill Hawks. With some of Sydney’s ageing midfielders in Kennedy & Parker, Sonsie could be a good fit at this pick.

Pick 19: Melbourne

JACOB VAN ROOYEN

Forward/defender
194cm/88kg
16/4/03
Claremont/Western Australia

Van Rooyen kicked the winning goal for Western Australia against South Australia in the under-19s clash having drifted forward late after spending most of the game in defence. It is that versatility which has improved the Claremont product's stocks across the year. Van Rooyen played at senior level earlier this season whilst battling glandular fever but his past two months have impressed with his work ethic and capacity to play in key positions. With a raft of Melbourne talls 28 years and older, Van Rooyen could be a good fit for the Demons.

Pick 20: Brisbane

CAMPBELL CHESSER

Midfielder/defender
186cm/83kg
27/4/03
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Country

It has been a year of frustrations for all Victorian prospects given the COVID-19 shutdowns of football across the state, but Chesser has reason to feel a little extra aggrieved given the knee problems he had gotten past just as the NAB League was cancelled for this year. The attacking midfielder/half-back can get the ball moving his side's way in a flash and is a high quality character for clubs to take on.  A move north with his Sandy Dragons teammate Sinn should hopefully see him settle.

ROUND 2

Pick 21: Fremantle

JACK WILLIAMS

Key forward
195cm/91kg
1/12/03
East Fremantle/Western Australia

Williams kicked 2.3 in East Fremantle's semi-final colts win in what was a very good showing in his side's win. The key forward is adept at finding the ball on the lead and getting away from his direct opponent to create a marking chance. He has been a goalkicker all year at colts level and shown recruiters his nous inside-50. The recruiting of Williams and Amiss earlier in the draft could finally give Fremantle the key targets they have been looking for.

Pick 22: North Melbourne

JESSE MOTLOP

Forward
176cm/74kg
23/11/03
South Fremantle/Western Australia

A smart small forward who can create something from nothing, Motlop has had good exposure this season playing with South Fremantle's league and reserves sides. The son of former Kangaroo and Power forward Daniel can hit the scoreboard, as seen with his two-goal debut in the WAFL earlier in the year. Motlop is a part of the Fremantle Next Generation Academy but the Dockers are only free to match a bid for him after pick 40 as he is a metropolitan Indigenous player. Being picked here would see Motlop an unofficial Father-Son selection for the Roos.

Pick 23: Hawthorn

MATTHEW ROBERTS

Midfielder/forward
183cm/81kg
31/7/03
South Adelaide/South Australia

This years draft slider IMO. Roberts kicked two goals from 10 disposals in South Adelaide's preliminary final loss in another solid senior performance. It has been a good run of form for Roberts since he returned from his syndesmosis ankle injury earlier this year. Roberts has played in the midfield, on the wing and in attack at different stages this season and has been a consistent contributor for his side. Along with Ward, will be a focal point of Hawthorns future midfield.

Pick 24: Geelong

TOM BROWN

Defender
186cm/71kg
30/7/03
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country

Brown is a half-back suited to the modern game. He is competitive and can shut down but is best regarded for his attacking movement, speed and game smarts. An ankle injury in the first half of the year made for a disrupted campaign but he did return mid-season to show some of his traits at NAB League and Vic Country level. The son of former Cat Paul but Brown isn't eligible to join Geelong as a father-son, however I believe he’ll get there anyway.

 

Pick 25: Hawthorn

JUDSON CLARKE

Forward/midfielder
179cm/69kg
17/10/03
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country

Clarke is a zippy small forward/midfielder who can light up the game in a flash with his forward run, tricky agility, and eye for goal. While his exploits were on full show earlier in the year, Clarke stamped his credentials with a breakout performance in the Under 19 Victorian trials, bagging five goals in a starring display. While he can roll through the midfield, the 17 year old looks most damaging up forward.

Pick 26: Bid on by Carlton. Bid matched by St Kilda trading Picks 55, 60 & 62 to AFL for Pick 26 & two later picks but go 107 points into deficit.

MARCUS WINDHAGER

Midfielder
183cm/82kg
16/5/03
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

A member of St Kilda's Next Generation Academy, Windhager's progress this season has caught more eyes than just those of the Saints. Powerful and flexible, Windhager can be used in midfield roles or at either end of the ground. He overcame a knee reconstruction last year to piece together a strong campaign in 2021 and will be on the verge of the top-20 – where the Saints would not be able to match a bid for him.

Pick 27: Carlton

BLAKE HOWES

Forward/midfielder
190cm/79kg
7/4/03
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

It was Howes' block of form mid-year that reminded clubs of his talents. At his size and shape Howes has been used in a number of different spots but he appeared to get motoring mainly as a wingman in the middle stages of the Dragons' season. An athletic runner who also showed some really exciting signs in Sandringham's first game of the season against Oakleigh as a third tall forward, Howes had 20 disposals and two goals against the Rebels in round 15.

Pick 28: Richmond

DARCY WILMOT

Defender
183cm/75kg
31/12/03
Northern Knights/Vic Metro

A courageous half-back who throws himself into contests then gets up and does it again. Wilmot is aggressive in his physicality but also his ball movement – he enjoys bolting out of defence and thinking ahead. He captained Vic Metro in a trial game earlier this year and has plenty of upside in him as the youngest player in this year's draft, not turning 18 until December 31.

Pick 29: Richmond

RHETT BAZZO

Key defender/forward
195cm/81kg
Swan Districts/Western Australia
17/10/03

Nudged his way into the top-30 after his standout key defensive game earlier this month for Western Australia. Bazzo collected 18 disposals against South Australia and showed he can set up the play with the ball in his hands and his penetrating kicking. Bazzo was an All-Australian at under-16s level and has proven he can also swing into attack and make an impact too.

Pick 30: West Coast

COREY WARNER

Midfielder
182cm/74kg
East Fremantle/Western Australia
7/10/03

Warner is a hard running midfielder who can play both inside and out, breaking forward with intent and a penetrating left foot kick. The younger brother of Syndey’s Chad, Corey skippered Aquinas College this year and managed four league games for East Fremantle, plying his trade out on the wing. Warner returned a fantastic finals series with East Fremantle Colts, matching his season average of 24 disposals playing in the centre bounces.

Pick 31: Geelong

ZAC TAYLOR

Midfielder
180cm/74kg
31/1/03
Calder Cannons/Vic Metro

Taylor produced a really good draft year that will see him be in top-25 discussions. The classy smaller midfielder just finds the footy and knows what to do with it. He averaged 26 disposals in Calder's NAB League season and he also produced some big games, including a 37-disposal and 11-clearance outing. His kicking stands out: Taylor rarely misses a target and simply makes good decisions. 

Pick 32: Bid on by Sydney. Bid matched by St Kilda going a further 467 points into deficit, 574 points in total.

MITCH OWENS

Utility
190cm/85kg
2003
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro

Growing around 15cm between the start of 2019 and the beginning of 2021, Owens is a late developer who only in the last month of the NAB League season entered first round contention. His performance as a late callup for Vic Metro in a trial match against Vic Country was the game that elevated his draft standing, securing 29 disposals, one goal and two score assists. He immediately backed this up with strong NAB League play for Sandringham. With his movement, overhead marking, ball winning capabilities and rapid rate of improvement, Owens is an upside choice who with continued rapid improvement could be one of this draft's very best. Had the season not been cut short, while there is an element of speculation in rating Owens this high, with the way he was developing, he may well have been rated even more highly.

Pick 33: Bid on by Sydney, Bid matched by GWS by trading Pick 48 & Pick 65 to the AFL for Pick 33 & a later pick and going 58 points into deficit.

JOSH FAHEY

Defender
186cm/76kg
GWS Academy/Western Allies
11/11/03

A hard run and gun rebounding defender who gives his all and boasts a raking left foot kick. Fahey is arguably this year’s leading Northern Academy talent.  He has impressed scouts with his dash out of defence and penetrative kicking, both damaging weapons for a player of his position.

Pick 34: Sydney

LEEK ALLEER

Key Defender
196cm/84kg
Central Districts/South Australia
2001

Rapidly developing, Alleer has become an intercept marking force in the SANFL at League level. Although he is two years older than his peers, his scope to develop is enormous based on his rapid rate of development. His round 16 match against South Adelaide was the eye-opener with five contested marks, seeming to intercept every high ball that went near him. Alleer drops due to the rise of others but remains one of the top key defenders on this draft board.

Pick 35: Geelong

TOBY CONWAY

Ruckman
204cm/90kg
24/4/03
Geelong Falcons/Vic Country

The best young ruck in the draft who can start things for his midfielders at centre bounces and is also handy around the ground as a drop-back player or move-forward target. Conway, a cousin of Sydney's Tom McCartin and his brother and former Saints forward Paddy, performed well for the Geelong Falcons and Vic Country this season before the season was cut short.

Pick 36: Adelaide

HUGH JACKSON

Midfielder
181cm/70kg
3/5/03
North Adelaide/South Australia

Jackson has been the leading accumulator in the draft pool this season in what has been a stellar under-18 season with North Adelaide. The wingman has averaged 29 disposals and five clearances for the Roosters and continues to be a reliable ball-getter who can chop teams up with his hard running and precise ball use. 

 

Pick 37: Bid on by Geelong. Bid matched by Port Adelaide trading Picks 57, 66 & 67 to AFL for Pick 37 & two later picks and going 55 points into deficit.

JASE BURGOYNE

Outside Midfielder
185cm/70kg
15/7/03
Woodville West Torrens/South Australia

He plays on ball with the Eagles Under 18s at the moment but he’ll probably play wing/half back at AFL level.  He finds the ball a lot, he’s got clean hands and uses the ball well.  He’s a different type of player to Trent Burgoyne (already on Ports list), who is probably more explosive. Jase accumulates more of the ball and he will need to improve his work rate to play at league level so it’ll be good to see if he can do that.

 

Pick 38: Bid on by Geelong. Bid matched by Melbourne using Pick 40.

ANDY MONIZ-WAKEFIELD

Midfielder
180cm/73kg
26/10/03
NT Thunder/Allies

A wingman or outside midfielder, Moniz-Wakefield is a smooth mover and uses the ball well. He was one of the standouts for NT Thunder in the two NAB League games they played this year, after making his senior NTFL debut for Nightcliff as a 16-year-old in the 2020-21 season. Moniz-Wakefield possesses breakaway speed, good agility and uses the ball well. He is clever around stoppage situations and works hard to find space. Moniz-Wakefield is a member of Melbourne’s Next Generation Academy.

Pick 39: Geelong

MITCH KNEVITT

Midfielder/forward
194cm/83kg
8/1/03
Geelong Falcons/Vic Country

A tall, strong bodied midfielder, Knevitt was one of Vic Country's stars in their challenge match against Vic Metro. His second half to the NAB League season was also excellent and elevated his position on draft boards. In re-assessing his rate of improvement there is a good deal of scope for his game to translate to AFL level if his midfield craft and ball winning capabilities continues to improve.

Pick 40: West Coast (bid not matched by Gold Coast)

BODHI UWLAND

Midfielder
185cm/84kg
2003
Gold Coast Academy

One of the lesser-known prospects, Uwland is as aggressive and competitive as any in this draft. Uwland is not just a strong ball winner, but a powerful athlete who shrugs tackles at will and has a penetrating and damaging kick.

So there you have it.  Unfortunately I have Geelong bidding on Moniz-Wakefield just before our 2nd round pick, however this is also where I see us being able to take advantage of the situation.  As you can see from above, I have a few clubs going into points deficit for next year. Both Port and GWS I have going about 50 points into deficit each, which is unlikely to significantly impact their draft positioning for next year. However St Kilda I have going into a massive 574 points deficit, which could impact them quite significantly! 

After the bids for Daicos, Darcy etc and Picks moving a round, I have Melbourne's next Picks in the 3rd Round being Picks 47 & 53, moe then enough points to match a bid for Moniz-Wakefield, should it come where I've predicted of Pick 38.  In my opinion, Melbourne should off our 2nd Round Pick (currently 36, likely to drift after F/S & NGA bids) to St Kilda in exchange for St Kilda's future 2nd Round Pick.  Pick 36 (currently) is worth 502 points, so would go a long way to helping St Kilda going into deficit of any significant amount.

Happy to hear people's thoughts and if there's any shocking omissions that I may have left off?

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Text for player descriptions from Cal Twomey, ESPN & AFL Draft Central

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5 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i cannot fathom why north wouldn't make the filth and footscray pay up for daicos and darcy

All reports from media seem to suggest that they want to publicity of having the actual Number 1 pick. Sad state of affairs if true.

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29 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i cannot fathom why north wouldn't make the filth and footscray pay up for daicos and darcy

I think it's now nearly consensus that if there were no F/S or NGA that JHF is the number 1 pick anyway, so maybe they are just taking the right pick in order and hoping that other clubs don't deliberately pick their F/S or NGA players early in the future just to make them pay.  

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1 hour ago, MadAsHell said:

So given lockdowns, a bit more exposure to other Football this year and the unknown about the potential inclusions of some NGA and Father Son prospects to the Demons title defence for next year, I have decided to do a Phantom Draft for the first time in about 7 or 8 years!  Have waited until trade period is over, so that I know who has what pick and I'm also putting my Mathematician hat on and figuring out points and picks exchanged for bids etc.

Well done MAH! I love that you had all the bidding numbers in there as well, most of the media phantoms seem to have no idea about that works.

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2 hours ago, MadAsHell said:

All reports from media seem to suggest that they want to publicity of having the actual Number 1 pick. Sad state of affairs if true.

Don't forget that the number 1 pick also receives money from NAB. Ugle Hagan got it last year instead of Thilthorpe

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1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Don't forget that the number 1 pick also receives money from NAB. Ugle Hagan got it last year instead of Thilthorpe

Would be interested to know just how much Jack Watts and Tom Boyd would’ve paid not to be the number 1 picks if they could.

Apart from hurting your rivals the best reason to bid is to take away that pressure.

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1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Would be interested to know just how much Jack Watts and Tom Boyd would’ve paid not to be the number 1 picks if they could.

Apart from hurting your rivals the best reason to bid is to take away that pressure.

Tom Boyd is a premiership player who in my opinion should have won the Norm Smith that day.

I will always love Jack Watts but he was taken at a time our culture wasn't right.

Petracca was taken at number 2 and Brayshaw at number 3.

I don't think if either were taken at number 1 it would have affected how they went about this year or on grand final day.

 

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next year is meant to be a super tall draft so watch for clubs in need of talls including us with as u said all our talls over 28yo to maybe go smaller and pass up this year with eyes on next years crop. also couldn't help but notice literally all the SA/WA prospects you had going to home state clubs, i don't think it'll pan out that way most clubs victorian and interstate have no issue drafting across the country and backing in their system to hold the player

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32 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

Tom Boyd is a premiership player who in my opinion should have won the Norm Smith that day.

I will always love Jack Watts but he was taken at a time our culture wasn't right.

Petracca was taken at number 2 and Brayshaw at number 3.

I don't think if either were taken at number 1 it would have affected how they went about this year or on grand final day.

 

Boyd played some unbelievable finals, but he clearly struggled under the expectations of being an AFL footballer, expectations that are highest on number 1 picks. And don’t even get me started on his awful contract. 

We stuffed the careers of a lot of players but the development of Watts is right up there. Do we pick a number 2 pick to debut on queens birthday?

Petracca from 2020 on is a player unburdened from anything really. But the various times in his career where his development was questioned - 2019 particularly - would’ve been twice as nasty had he been the number 1 pick.

Sam Walsh is going to be a superstar. He was a handy player from his very first game. But even he’s copped negative pressure for not being as flashy as some of the players drafted after him. It’s a huge burden to carry. 

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I thought Moniz-Wakefield was a rookie at best awfully high for a speculative pick. I think we will have 3 picks in the draft MAH. Can you give us a possible player we could pick up with that pick? Looking forward to Normies Phantom draft if he's doing one.

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The experts are suggesting that the number of players to be drafted in the main draft will be somewhere between 50 and 60 (leaving aside rookie elevations). The number last year was 59 and with the continuing pressures on finances and list sizes, it’s likely to be less than last year. On that basis, it’s highly unlikely that Moniz-Wakefield would attract a bid in the draft. More likely that if the club wants to take him, it will list M-Z as a Category B rookie which it can do if he goes undrafted. 

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8 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

I thought Moniz-Wakefield was a rookie at best awfully high for a speculative pick. I think we will have 3 picks in the draft MAH. Can you give us a possible player we could pick up with that pick? Looking forward to Normies Phantom draft if he's doing one.

As @Sydney Pennski has said above, I'm still hopeful that AMW will drift to be a Category B rookie, however after two years of limited football for the Victorian kids, it really is a big unknown after about Pick 35 this year I feel. Moniz-Wakefield consistent football could work in his favor and against us.

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17 hours ago, Turner said:

Couldn't help but notice literally all the SA/WA prospects you had going to home state clubs, i don't think it'll pan out that way most clubs victorian and interstate have no issue drafting across the country and backing in their system to hold the player

I get what you're saying Turner and in general I agree with you that clubs will simply take best available no matter what state they come from. However if it's a close call between players, that's where things like list needs, go home factor etc would start to come in more.

Don't forget as well the kids from SA and WA have had more exposure than those from Victoria. And I still have Adelaide taking a Victorian kid at Pick 6 when he's clearly a better prospect then the next best kid from SA.

In my opinion my biggest reach with this type of pick is probably Fremantle taking Graham at Pick 21 when a lot of others have Graham at about 25 or later. But I've justified that selection with Fremantles quest for key forwards and Graham is clearly the next best available at that stage.

Edited by MadAsHell
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On 10/14/2021 at 10:51 PM, WERRIDEE said:

I thought Moniz-Wakefield was a rookie at best awfully high for a speculative pick. I think we will have 3 picks in the draft MAH. Can you give us a possible player we could pick up with that pick? Looking forward to Normies Phantom draft if he's doing one.

Tough one this year once again. I think a lot of random amateurs like me only have limited capacity and capabilities.  I’ve watched some of the local SANFL and WAFL where possible and the SA-WA Under19s matches. Combine results also skewed to SA-WA. Hard to gauge our local Vic metro youngsters given lockdown over past 2 years and restrictions. Perhaps only go with the Cal Twomey ratings and blend with the SA-WA youngsters. Interesting that JT got over to WA with the Dees and was able to see many of the WA youngsters live.  Obviously gives them an advantage yet JT ️ picked 3 Vic metro boys last year so hard to call. 

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11 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tough one this year once again. I think a lot of random amateurs like me only have limited capacity and capabilities.  I’ve watched some of the local SANFL and WAFL where possible and the SA-WA Under19s matches. Combine results also skewed to SA-WA. Hard to gauge our local Vic metro youngsters given lockdown over past 2 years and restrictions. Perhaps only go with the Cal Twomey ratings and blend with the SA-WA youngsters. Interesting that JT got over to WA with the Dees and was able to see many of the WA youngsters live.  Obviously gives them an advantage yet JT ️ picked 3 Vic metro boys last year so hard to call. 

Maybe I overthink it, but JT seems the type that'd love less exposure to the VIC kids

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Just a couple of clarifications, GC don’t need to match any bids, they can just add their academy players to the list, that’s why they traded everything except pick 3 out into next year. 
Also the Saints picks will move up the order considerably after Pies and Dogs match bids for Daicos and Darcy, so they won’t go into deficit matching a bid at that selection. 

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Well I've got us picking Andrew up with our first pick. Williams with our second pick. Willis with our 3rd pick and Woewodin with our 4th pick. Moniz-Wakefield b rookie.

SENIOR TEAM

B: RIVERS, MAY, LEVER

HB: BOWEY, PETTY, SALEM

C: LANGDON, PETRACCA, BRAYSHAW

HF: SPARROW, JACKSON, NEAL-BULLEN

F: PICKETT, B.BROWN, FRITSCH

FOLL: GAWN, OLIVER, VINEY

IC: HUNT, SPARGO, HARMES, DUNSTAN

SUB: JORDON

CASEY

B: WOEWODIN, TURNER, J.SMITH

HB: HIBBERD, TOMLINSON, D.SMITH

C: BAKER, JORDON, ROSMAN

HF: MELKSHAM, MCDONALD, CHANDLER

F: BEDFORD, WEIDEMAN, M.BROWN

FOLL: DAW, LAURIE, WILLIS

IC: WILLIAMS, ANDREW, MONIZ-WAKEFIELD

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On 10/15/2021 at 8:55 AM, MadAsHell said:

I get what you're saying Turner and in general I agree with you that clubs will simply take best available no matter what state they come from. However if it's a close call between players, that's where things like list needs, go home factor etc would start to come in more.

Don't forget as well the kids from SA and WA have had more exposure than those from Victoria. And I still have Adelaide taking a Victorian kid at Pick 6 when he's clearly a better prospect then the next best kid from SA.

In my opinion my biggest reach with this type of pick is probably Fremantle taking Graham at Pick 21 when a lot of others have Graham at about 25 or later. But I've justified that selection with Fremantles quest for key forwards and Graham is clearly the next best available at that stage.

I don't think you are wrong with the selections. Since the "go home 5", interstate clubs picking Vic Metro kids with first round picks has become a real exception and when you did deeper into who (e.g., Rowell and Anderson) you can see patterns emerge, or the kid is very well adjusted, or they boarded and played for Metro. More often, it has been kids from their own state or Vic Country or when it has happened they picked a Metro kid, they are not at the club anymore. I looked back at the last 10 years of drafting the other day and you could really see that pattern emerge. 

We talk about it being a national competition. But I promise you that Jason Taylor and his Victorian colleagues aren't thinking about the go home factor anywhere near as much as their counterparts in WA and QLD. I wouldn't be surprised for Freo to pick Erasmum and Amiss with their picks, Wanganeen-Milera is shooting up the draft boards, maybe Adelaide will trade down a little and ensure he ends up still in SA. Johnson looks a good prospect for WC. Draper great for PA if he gets through. And I'd be putting money on Brisbane taking two Vic Country kids, although you've got them taking team mates Sinn and Chesser which is a good strategy as well.   

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12 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Well I've got us picking Andrew up with our first pick. Williams with our second pick. Willis with our 3rd pick and Woewodin with our 4th pick. Moniz-Wakefield b rookie.

SENIOR TEAM

B: RIVERS, MAY, LEVER

HB: BOWEY, PETTY, SALEM

C: LANGDON, PETRACCA, BRAYSHAW

HF: SPARROW, JACKSON, NEAL-BULLEN

F: PICKETT, B.BROWN, FRITSCH

FOLL: GAWN, OLIVER, VINEY

IC: HUNT, SPARGO, HARMES, DUNSTAN

SUB: JORDON

CASEY

B: WOEWODIN, TURNER, J.SMITH

HB: HIBBERD, TOMLINSON, D.SMITH

C: BAKER, JORDON, ROSMAN

HF: MELKSHAM, MCDONALD, CHANDLER

F: BEDFORD, WEIDEMAN, M.BROWN

FOLL: DAW, LAURIE, WILLIS

IC: WILLIAMS, ANDREW, MONIZ-WAKEFIELD

#17 Andrew. #37 Williams # 49 Willis # match Woey jnr. Cat B Moniz-Wakefield.  

Andrew lasting to 17 is ultra optimistic.  Dees would have to grab him if he gets there imv.  🤔
Williams lasting to end of 2nd round is a prayer. Freo would be crazy to let him slip. 🧐
Jane’s Willis showed plenty as inside/outside mid and across forward, and and would be a very good pickup in 3rd round.👍🏻
Woey 👍🏻
Moniz-Wakefield as a cat B 🤞👍🏻

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