4 hours ago, Demonland said:

Vision from Mac Andrew’s two representative games this year.

First up, the game for the NAB AFL Academy vs Geelong played in late April.

Next, the Under 19 Challenge Match for Vic Country vs Vic Metro from July. 

https://www.afl.com.au/video/651642/u19-challenge-match-vic-metro-v-vic-country?videoId=651642&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1627002802001

Watched the second game and wow, Nick Daicos is a gem. He’s going to be a favourite with the Collingwood fans but will cost them a suitcase load of draft points. The Metro team dominated and had a lot of good players including midfielders, Josh Ward and Josh Goater and ironically. St Kilda NGA Mitch Owens. Their other father-son in the team Sam Darcy was good and you can see why he’s rated so highly. Country’s best was another midfielder Ben Hobbs and half-forward Josh Rachele which brings me to Mac Andrew. He went okay. He has some good attributes and spent only part of the game on the ruck. He’s athletic, has a good leap and plenty of spring to take on ruck duels but he’ll probably start as a key position player and even then would have to work his butt off to get up to speed physically. One day he could be an Aliir Aliir or Mabior Chol  - who can say?

Edited September 7, 20213 yr by Freddy Fuschia

Breaking news: The Brisbane Bullets have just signed the tallest player in NBL history – 226cm Chinese international centre Chuanxing Liu. Because of his size, he also looms as a potential future champion AFL ruckman and is widely expected to enter October’s power rankings at number 5.

I’m also wondering how someone with potential who has athleticism but is so raw can be deemed to fit in the number 6  to 8 ranking (let alone top 20) among players who have been highly regarded and producing elite level performances including state representatives etc for a few years now. 

My take is that there’s talk that Fremantle would be looking for something like pick 6 for Adam Cerra, a veteran of 76 games who was selected at number 5 in the 2017 national draft. 

Would anyone in their right mind think Andrew* comes near to equalling Cerra in value at this moment?

* not knocking young Andrew but trying to get some understanding of how a club  recruiter can assess potential vs the worth of a proven player.

Edited September 7, 20213 yr by The Great Pretender
correct spelling

1 hour ago, The Great Pretender said:

I’m also wondering how someone with potential who has athleticism but is so raw can be deemed to fit in the number 6  to 8 ranking (let alone top 20) among players who have been highly regarded and producing elite level performances including state representatives etc for a few years now. 

My take is that there’s talk that Fremantle would be looking for something like pick 6 for Adam Cerra, a veteran of 76 games who was selected at number 5 in the 2017 national draft. 

Would anyone in their right mind think Andrew* comes near to equalling Cerra in value at this moment?

* not knocking young Andrew but trying to get some understanding of how a club  recruiter can assess potential vs the worth of a proven player.

There will be no Cerra with 76 games and some AFL seniors form on the board available in the draft - its a bit of a lottery 

When an established player wants to leave you extract what is available - if its pick 6 than so be it 

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

There will be no Cerra with 76 games and some AFL seniors form on the board available in the draft - its a bit of a lottery 

When an established player wants to leave you extract what is available - if its pick 6 than so be it 

However, if AFL clubs value Adam Cerra as equivalent to a pick 6 then that's a reasonable measure of the value of the pick.

From the Herald Sun’s AFL Draft 2021 Dossier: Profiles and stats on all the top prospects

“Mac Andrew Ruck/Key Forward/Key Defender

Age: 12/4/2003

Weight: 70kg

Height: 200cm

Club: Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country

Stats

2021 NAB League (6 games)

87 ranking points, 12.7 disposals, 12.7 hitouts, 2.7 marks

A Melbourne Next Generation Academy member, Andrew has emerged “out of nowhere” to sit as a likely top-20 draft pick this year. The athletic tall was added to the NAB AFL Academy squad in April after a dazzling start to the season with the Stingrays and caught the eye in the Academy team’s exhibition match against Geelong’s VFL team in April. In that match, Andrew was used at full-forward and full-back with limited impact in the opening three quarters. But his favoured position is in the ruck and he shone when given an opportunity in that position in the last quarter. The mobile big man covers the ground effortlessly, is a nice kick, possesses a giant jump and becomes an extra midfielder once the ball hits the ground out of the ruck contest. His upside is enormous”.

Seems there is a new draft rule , we cant match a bid within top 20 .

dont shoot me im only a messenger

11 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

From the Herald Sun’s AFL Draft 2021 Dossier: Profiles and stats on all the top prospects

“Mac Andrew Ruck/Key Forward/Key Defender

Age: 12/4/2003

Weight: 70kg

Height: 200cm

Club: Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country

Stats

2021 NAB League (6 games)

87 ranking points, 12.7 disposals, 12.7 hitouts, 2.7 marks

A Melbourne Next Generation Academy member, Andrew has emerged “out of nowhere” to sit as a likely top-20 draft pick this year. The athletic tall was added to the NAB AFL Academy squad in April after a dazzling start to the season with the Stingrays and caught the eye in the Academy team’s exhibition match against Geelong’s VFL team in April. In that match, Andrew was used at full-forward and full-back with limited impact in the opening three quarters. But his favoured position is in the ruck and he shone when given an opportunity in that position in the last quarter. The mobile big man covers the ground effortlessly, is a nice kick, possesses a giant jump and becomes an extra midfielder once the ball hits the ground out of the ruck contest. His upside is enormous”.

weight 70 kg. Height 200cm. !!!!!

The guy must be a matchstick. It will take 10 preseasons to fill him out!

2 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

weight 70 kg. Height 200cm. !!!!!

The guy must be a matchstick. It will take 10 preseasons to fill him out!

This could be the only thing that may see him slip through to us.

Clubs are reluctant to take ruckmen early and the prospect of one that will take years of development could make some pause.  Plenty can go wrong in player development and the idea of a 200cm beanpole who has really only started to show his potential recently is a risk for a first round pick.

🤞🤞🤞

Unlike Jackson who was able to play straight away, Mac you'd reckon will take at least two or three seasons to have an AFL ready body. 

Makes you wonder with the short-term pressure and general impatience AFL clubs have to perform, whether they are willing to wait the time needed for a return on investment.

That run, leap and general athleticism is so tantalising I hope clubs take the short-term view.

12 hours ago, dee-tox said:

That run, leap and general athleticism is so tantalising I hope clubs take the short-term view.

Usain Bolt was the best athlete ever. He won eight Olympic gold medals including the 100m and 200m at three Olympics and still holds the world record at both. He was tall and fast and incidentally could leap too (I’ve seen him slam dunk a basketball).

When he retired from sprinting in 2017, he declared to the world that he wanted to become a professional soccer player. None of those attributes was enough to even get him a spot at the Central Coast Mariners let alone Manchester United for who he dreamed of playing. 

Those physical attributes will take you only so far. Bolt also was physically mature, strong and muscular and of course, had great mental strength, all of which Mac Andrew can only acquire with a good few years of hard work.

Bolt failed in the end to make it even at one of soccer’s minnows in a lowly competition by world standards because the thing that he really lacked was football “nous”. Does Mac Andrew have that?

3 minutes ago, Leopold Bloom said:

Bolt failed in the end to make it even at one of soccer’s minnows in a lowly competition by world standards because the thing that he really lacked was football “nous”. Does Mac Andrew have that?

He's played much more Aussie Rules than Luke Jackson at the same age... So why wouldn't he have football nous?

Bizarre take. This is not a guy plucked from obscurity.

Have a look at the available footage and you'll see not only his huge athletic potential but also his footy IQ.

I am a bit annoyed that in the year that these new rules come in that we will probably miss out on Mac Andrew.

Why have a Next Generation Academy (NGA) if we can't use it to our advantage? The Bulldogs got the 1# draft pick out of it last year!

Anyway, no point whinging about it....but I would definitely ask the question to the AFL as to what benefit does it serve AFL Clubs to unearth talent if we cannot get first priority for these NGA players.

 

18 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

This could be the only thing that may see him slip through to us.

Clubs are reluctant to take ruckmen early and the prospect of one that will take years of development could make some pause.  Plenty can go wrong in player development and the idea of a 200cm beanpole who has really only started to show his potential recently is a risk for a first round pick.

🤞🤞🤞

Exactly what I said months ago. That is our hope, that the top 20 picks taken, are generally seen as nearly ready to go.

11 minutes ago, Supreme_Demon said:

I am a bit annoyed that in the year that these new rules come in that we will probably miss out on Mac Andrew.

Why have a Next Generation Academy (NGA) if we can't use it to our advantage? The Bulldogs got the 1# draft pick out of it last year!

Anyway, no point whinging about it....but I would definitely ask the question to the AFL as to what benefit does it serve AFL Clubs to unearth talent if we cannot get first priority for these NGA players.

 

I think Ugle-Hagen caused the rule change. Our bad luck it wasn't next year that the new rule started.

11 hours ago, dee-tox said:

He's played much more Aussie Rules than Luke Jackson at the same age... So why wouldn't he have football nous?

Bizarre take. This is not a guy plucked from obscurity.

Have a look at the available footage and you'll see not only his huge athletic potential but also his footy IQ.

Where did you get that piece of misinformation from?

Jackson was in the WA Under 16 squad in 2017 and in the WA Under 18 national championships in 2018 & 2019 and played for East Fremantle Under 18 Colts during both years. He also played in the ruck for the AFL Academy vs Casey Demons in 2019 where he was super impressive. There’s You Tube vision of him in many of those games. He won All Australian selection in 2019. None of that was enough to get him a berth in most draft list top tens until the time of the draft combine in October.

Andrew has played 6 NAB Cup Games, the Academy game v Geelong and the challenge game for Vic Country v Vic Metro, all of which happened this year. No games last year. That’s nowhere near Jackson’s record. Before that he was in the Stingrays squad but didn’t get a game. He’s raw, only plays well in bursts and has yet to show the necessary football strength or nous over a game. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have potential but top 10? 

Give me a break.

20 minutes ago, Leopold Bloom said:

Where did you get that piece of misinformation from?

Jackson was in the WA Under 16 squad in 2017 and in the WA Under 18 national championships in 2018 & 2019 and played for East Fremantle Under 18 Colts during both years. He also played in the ruck for the AFL Academy vs Casey Demons in 2019 where he was super impressive. There’s You Tube vision of him in many of those games. He won All Australian selection in 2019. None of that was enough to get him a berth in most draft list top tens until the time of the draft combine in October.

Andrew has played 6 NAB Cup Games, the Academy game v Geelong and the challenge game for Vic Country v Vic Metro, all of which happened this year. No games last year. That’s nowhere near Jackson’s record. Before that he was in the Stingrays squad but didn’t get a game. He’s raw, only plays well in bursts and has yet to show the necessary football strength or nous over a game. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have potential but top 10? 

Give me a break.

Jackson was a basketballer who started AFL seriously as a 16 year old.

Mac started Aussie Rules at Wantirna South as a  seven/eight year old and then moved to Berwick juniors a few years after. That's 10 or 11 years of junior footy. Many of us that saw him play at Berwick would never say he lacked football nous. Skinny and easily pushed aside, sure, but that's not 'football nous'. The representative games he played were spectacular.

He's played much, much more football than Jackson which is the original point I was making.

 

 

14 minutes ago, dee-tox said:

Jackson was a basketballer who started AFL seriously as a 16 year old.

Mac started Aussie Rules at Wantirna South as a  seven/eight year old and then moved to Berwick juniors a few years after. That's 10 or 11 years of junior footy. Many of us that saw him play at Berwick would never say he lacked football nous. Skinny and easily pushed aside, sure, but that's not 'football nous'. The representative games he played were spectacular.

He's played much, much more football than Jackson which is the original point I was making.

 

 

It’s been widely reported that Jackson combined football and basketball when younger and ended up choosing AFL ahead of an international basketball career. That doesn’t mean he didn’t play football as a junior. The point is that Jackson was already at state level at 16 and then remained at state level at 17 as an under age under 18 and then at 18 where he made All Australian. 

To get what I mean by football nous, it would be worthwhile watching Andrews’ two games linked in this post. In the second game, he barely contested in the ruck and he often looked out of position and lost in the second half. Apart from a purple patch in the second quarter when he looked very good, his performance was not what you expect of someone at the elite end of the draft.

Edited September 17, 20213 yr by Leopold Bloom

On 9/17/2021 at 2:34 PM, Redleg said:

I think Ugle-Hagen caused the rule change. Our bad luck it wasn't next year that the new rule started.

Whether or not it’s our “bad luck” depends on how highly our recruiters regard Andrew.

Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide puts him at #9 which means that if he was picked at that number under the old rules, Melbourne would have had to come up with 1469 points less 20% = 1175 points. 

We currently hold picks 33, 42, 54 & 91 which are collectively worth 1178 points which means we could have just squeezed him in if we wanted to match the bid, leaving our first pick in the draft at notionally around 72.  

It also means we would have to have gone into points deficit (affecting our hand in next year’s draft) in the event that another club nominated Taj Woewodin in say, the middle of the draft and we wanted to match that bid. We also have promising NGA Andy Moniz-Wakefield who will probably go late in the draft or rookied. Still, we would have to be prepared for a bid for him, even if it’s not likely.

Of course, the above doesn’t take into account the likelihood of us improving our draft position through trading out players but where would we be left on that score if we were serious contenders for Adam Cerra and if not Cerra, where would we be in terms of list management if we wanted to pick other players we had our eyes on?

At least we would have a very skinny project player who, according to Chris Doerre who also rates him at #9 on his latest You Tube (released yesterday Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAjYGjloLY4&t=1944s) will start as a KPP due to his current physical limitations but might eventually make it as a ruckman and be a Tom Nicholls or an Archie Smith type. 

Would anyone fancy heavily mortgaging the farm and forgoing other more immediate needs so that we can maybe have a Tom Nicholls or an Archie Smith running around in 2024 or 2025?

On 9/17/2021 at 2:25 PM, Supreme_Demon said:

I am a bit annoyed that in the year that these new rules come in that we will probably miss out on Mac Andrew.

Why have a Next Generation Academy (NGA) if we can't use it to our advantage? The Bulldogs got the 1# draft pick out of it last year!

Anyway, no point whinging about it....but I would definitely ask the question to the AFL as to what benefit does it serve AFL Clubs to unearth talent if we cannot get first priority for these NGA players.

 

It is just yet another AFL knee jerk rule change - like the deliberate rushed behind (one GF circa 2007), the pre finals bye (one failed 'resting players' in round 23 circa 2015) , statue on mark for ? whatever reason.  

Some administrators  just think they have to make changes for the sake of it.

Gawn was a tall skinny kid who needed lots of development - he turned out alright. If Andrew takes 2-3 years, it might be OK because Gawn will be coming to the end of his career near then.

His draft position comes down to whether he is a project player (like Bradtke) or a genuine football draft selection. There is no way you could take a project draft selection inside the top 30. 

50 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Whether or not it’s our “bad luck” depends on how highly our recruiters regard Andrew.

Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide puts him at #9 which means that if he was picked at that number under the old rules, Melbourne would have had to come up with 1469 points less 20% = 1175 points. 

We currently hold picks 33, 42, 54 & 91 which are collectively worth 1178 points which means we could have just squeezed him in if we wanted to match the bid, leaving our first pick in the draft at notionally around 72.  

It also means we would have to have gone into points deficit (affecting our hand in next year’s draft) in the event that another club nominated Taj Woewodin in say, the middle of the draft and we wanted to match that bid. We also have promising NGA Andy Moniz-Wakefield who will probably go late in the draft or rookied. Still, we would have to be prepared for a bid for him, even if it’s not likely.

Of course, the above doesn’t take into account the likelihood of us improving our draft position through trading out players but where would we be left on that score if we were serious contenders for Adam Cerra and if not Cerra, where would we be in terms of list management if we wanted to pick other players we had our eyes on?

At least we would have a very skinny project player who, according to Chris Doerre who also rates him at #9 on his latest You Tube (released yesterday Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAjYGjloLY4&t=1944s) will start as a KPP due to his current physical limitations but might eventually make it as a ruckman and be a Tom Nicholls or an Archie Smith type. 

Would anyone fancy heavily mortgaging the farm and forgoing other more immediate needs so that we can maybe have a Tom Nicholls or an Archie Smith running around in 2024 or 2025?

Fair argument. You are actually making me feel a bit better if we miss out on him. Cerra, Moniz-Wakefield, young Woewy and a couple of late picks in the ND and RookieD might be a good result for the Premier.

Would you look at Brander if you could get him for say a future 3rd rounder. He is quite versatile. Could replace Hibbo, Melk if we let them go. 

Edited September 19, 20213 yr by Redleg

I often wonder if our draft and trading strategy last year was influenced by us thinking we were getting Mac as an NGA this year. Can't remember if the rules changed before or after the trade/draft period. If after then its really poor form from the AFL and we should be disappointed. 

2 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

Gawn was a tall skinny kid who needed lots of development - he turned out alright. If Andrew takes 2-3 years, it might be OK because Gawn will be coming to the end of his career near then.

His draft position comes down to whether he is a project player (like Bradtke) or a genuine football draft selection. There is no way you could take a project draft selection inside the top 30. 

Agree … and yet Chris Doerre, an ESPN draft “expert” who ranks him at 9 (see my post above) specifically refers to him as a “project” player. I want to make it clear, I am not knocking Mac Andrew - what I’m saying is that he’s a talented player with an excellent upside and could amount to a regular AFL ruckman at some time in the future but the hype we’re receiving from some quarters is well over the top.

1 hour ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Whether or not it’s our “bad luck” depends on how highly our recruiters regard Andrew.

Cal Twomey's latest Phantom Form Guide puts him at #9 which means that if he was picked at that number under the old rules, Melbourne would have had to come up with 1469 points less 20% = 1175 points. 

We currently hold picks 33, 42, 54 & 91 which are collectively worth 1178 points which means we could have just squeezed him in if we wanted to match the bid, leaving our first pick in the draft at notionally around 72.  

It also means we would have to have gone into points deficit (affecting our hand in next year’s draft) in the event that another club nominated Taj Woewodin in say, the middle of the draft and we wanted to match that bid. We also have promising NGA Andy Moniz-Wakefield who will probably go late in the draft or rookied. Still, we would have to be prepared for a bid for him, even if it’s not likely.

Of course, the above doesn’t take into account the likelihood of us improving our draft position through trading out players but where would we be left on that score if we were serious contenders for Adam Cerra and if not Cerra, where would we be in terms of list management if we wanted to pick other players we had our eyes on?

At least we would have a very skinny project player who, according to Chris Doerre who also rates him at #9 on his latest You Tube (released yesterday Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAjYGjloLY4&t=1944s) will start as a KPP due to his current physical limitations but might eventually make it as a ruckman and be an Archie Smith type. 

Would anyone fancy heavily mortgaging the farm and forgoing other more immediate needs so that we can maybe have an Archie Smith running around in 2024 or 2025?

Did he really mention Nicholls and Smith?

I couldn’t believe it so I went to the source and there he was at 13:50 saying that with time in the gym he might develop into a ruckman but not one with Nic Nat’s power “so you’re looking more at a Tom Nicholls or an Archie Smith type”. 

For the record:-

Tom Nicholls 203 cm, 102 kg played 45 games (7 goals) in 9 seasons with Gold Coast.

Archie Smith 202 cm, 105 kg has played 16 games in 8 seasons with the Brisbane Lions.