CHANGES: Rd 19 vs Western Bulldogs

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

Anyone else rather see Harmes in for Viney and Vanders hold his spot? gives us Grunt but can also be more damaging around the ground. 

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, Smokey said:

I know it’s way too early to think about dropping Brown, but he’s on notice for mine. Yes, doing some good things, but if he doesn’t start clunking a few and kicking true I will start to question his spot in the team again

Reckon he needs  continuity of playing Smokey, I'd give him another 3 weeks of playing before I"d consider dropping him.

[dpositive 1,665]

14 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

I have nothing against ANB. I just think we need a bit of polish going into and inside forward 50. Melksham provides that, ANB was the only one I could think of to go out. 

Not sure which polish strategy will help.Lech Walesa and the dock strikers did bring down the previous regime, forming impenetrable lines at the docklands despite powerful opposition. The polish pope also intstigated reforms and labour workforce statements around fairness and equitable treatment.

While both were remarkably successful perhaps you are referring to some sports ground tactics which I am not aware of. Does Melksham have some polish heritage?

[Smokey 4,389]

34 minutes ago, loges said:

Reckon he needs  continuity of playing Smokey, I'd give him another 3 weeks of playing before I"d consider dropping him.

I agree, I'm only saying he's on notice. My first sentence couldn't have been clearer in fact. 

Our forward structure looks better with a big tall like Brown in. But he can only go so many weeks of not clunking his marks and kicking his set shots before his place is in question (like any player). 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Smokey

[Smokey 4,389]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Because we smashed the Bulldogs last time, are on top of the ladder and haven't lost to a top 8, let alone top 4 side. That could be the reason...

Not sure old mate has been watching much footy this year ...

[Demon17 5,188]

13 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I wouldn't have expected us to be favourites in the betting market but:

1. The game is at the MCG, where the Dogs are 1-1 this year, with a run of the mill win vs Collingwood and then a second-half trouncing by Richmond, and they haven't played there since Round 7
2. The Dogs aren't really in form - they're 4-3 over their last 7 games (we're 4-2-1 by comparison) and the only one of their 4 wins in that stretch of note was vs West Coast, who aren't in any form to speak of themselves (and there was no crowd at their game in Perth) - remaining wins were vs Fremantle, North and Gold Coast
3. Each of the last two weeks they've only generated 20 scoring shots (equal third-lowest they've had all year) and each of the last three weeks they've conceded 24 scoring shots (second-worst they've had all year)
4. They scored 100+ points in 6 of their first 10 games but since Round 11 (losing to us) they've only reached 100 once
5. We've already comprehensively outplayed them once this year

Thanks for this analysis . Always helpful to have the facts rather than necessarily mfcss.

Goodwin unlocked the dogs last time which has since been emulated by othet coaches. Ignore media. They only have attention spans of last 48 hours.

[loges 6,767]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

I agree, I'm only saying he's on notice. My first sentence couldn't have been clearer in fact. 

Our forward structure looks better with a big tall like Brown in. But he can only go so many weeks of not clunking his marks and kicking his set shots before his place is in question (like any player). 

Yes agree, I"d like to see him start hitting the scoreboard more.

[DeeZone 9,842]

I am also really looking forward to BBB kicking 3-4 goals in a game just to show that he is still up to it. I like the structure that he brings to our forward 50 but he Tmac and LJ need to maintain some separation . We want multiple choices not all jumping at the same ball.

Go DEES…!!!!

[leave it to deever 17,511]

wrong thread

Edited July 20, 2021 by leave it to deever

[leave it to deever 17,511]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

I agree, I'm only saying he's on notice. My first sentence couldn't have been clearer in fact. 

Our forward structure looks better with a big tall like Brown in. But he can only go so many weeks of not clunking his marks and kicking his set shots before his place is in question (like any player). 

BB was our highest marking player in the hawks game.

[Demons11 7,014]

15 hours ago, bingers said:

Incredibly Sportsbet has Melbourne $1.83 Bulldogs $2.01.

Go figure?

We are on top of the ladder and gave them a touch up last time.  
 

what’s so surprising? 

[DubDee 25,868]

5 hours ago, Smokey said:

I know it’s way too early to think about dropping Brown, but he’s on notice for mine. Yes, doing some good things, but if he doesn’t start clunking a few and kicking true I will start to question his spot in the team again

I agree, he needs to start performing. aside from that goal he kicked out of mid air, he missed a couple of shots.  we had 58 inside 50s for 11.13.  The Hawks game was exactly why we got Brown, with the thought he can mark and kick a few when we dont play well and just bomb it in.

Give him a couple more weeks but he better improve

[Smokey 4,389]

8 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I agree, he needs to start performing. aside from that goal he kicked out of mid air, he missed a couple of shots.  we had 58 inside 50s for 11.13.  The Hawks game was exactly why we got Brown, with the thought he can mark and kick a few when we dont play well and just bomb it in.

Give him a couple more weeks but he better improve

Problem is his replacement hasn't inspired much confidence at AFL level this year. I'm far from calling for Weid again yet, but Brown can't survive forever without kicking his goals. 

[BW511 2,669]

We are an infinitely better side with Brown in, there is no way he goes out.

Of the players on notice, I think he'd be well behind a few others.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 7/18/2021 at 6:08 PM, Jaded said:

We won’t be playing Gold Coast 

Channel 7 said we are playing the Dogs at the G. Dogs already back in Victoria. 
So frustrating to miss yet another big home game crowd. Just not sure how we financially survive. 

Just in time to do our jekyll and hyde act and beat them.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

36 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

We are on top of the ladder and gave them a touch up last time.  
 

what’s so surprising? 

umm our last game out perhaps

[Doug Reemer 1,197]

On 7/17/2021 at 10:36 PM, goodwindees said:

Wiedeman

[leave it to deever 17,511]

15 hours ago, Wylie D said:

I think that a key to our success this year has not to make knee jerk reactions at the selection table and try and get as much continuity between the playing group. 
 

We were bad against the Hawks, but fantastic against Port the week prior. The same players. It’s not selection that will make the difference, it’s effective application of our proven game plan. 
 

If we bring our high pressure game, the Dogs will struggle, as they don’t like it and start to bomb long (straight into our hands). I trust Burgess and Goodwin have a plan to get us into the finals and succeed in the finals. Week 19 doesn’t matter unless it’s part of the plan. 
 

On Viney. He is a work in progress - he also had 32 touches and 11 tackles. If he can get his efficiency and decision making right, he will be a major asset. 
 

Harmes in, Vandenberg out. Go again. 

Yep Harmes in. Sorry Vanders. only change

[Mono 455]

47 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I agree, he needs to start performing. aside from that goal he kicked out of mid air, he missed a couple of shots.  we had 58 inside 50s for 11.13.  The Hawks game was exactly why we got Brown, with the thought he can mark and kick a few when we dont play well and just bomb it in.

Give him a couple more weeks but he better improve

Brown has made a name as a lead up mark. Not a pack mark. Brown is not the answer if we just bomb it.

[Demons11 7,014]

27 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

umm our last game out perhaps

Just go back 2 games then.  It’s hardly surprising is my point 

[Pennant St Dee 13,173]

14 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

I'd only have the 1 change this week and that would be Harmes for Vanders but if we lose this week we are in a serious form slump and Sparrow, Bowey, Melksham and others have to be considered.

Surely the outcome is based upon the game itself and not the W L as to being in a form slump.

Play really well, couple of things just don’t go our way and lose by a small margin doesn’t constitute a form slump in my book 

But then again the usual suspects will call that accepting mediocrity 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

5 hours ago, loges said:

Reckon he needs  continuity of playing Smokey, I'd give him another 3 weeks of playing before I"d consider dropping him.

He will struggle to get close to or at the top of his game this season IMHO given the intterupted pre-season.  But here's hoping as if/when he does get there he's a very damaging / accurate / consistent goal kicking KF.

2 hours ago, Mono said:

Brown has made a name as a lead up mark. Not a pack mark. Brown is not the answer if we just bomb it.

Might give the impression that he is but if you watch his highlight reels he takes as many pack / contested marks as he does marks on a lead.  His career averages back this up averaging 1.6 for both every match.

While not doing as well this season (obviously) if/when he gets his mojo back he would be second only to Fritsch (this season) with career goal accuracy running at 59.5% (Fritsch no.1 at 62.5%).

While i agree bombing it in to him probably isn't the greatest strategy i don't think it's that bad either about 50% of the time, provided...... it's done relatively quickly where possible in order to give him the best opportunity to either beat his opponent one on one and/or pack mark against up to two or three (which he is also quite capable of) rather than 4 to 5 (once the calvary arrives with one or two of our guys in tow making it almost impossible for anyone to pack mark).

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I291867/Brown-Ben

Not that a highlight reel is a great example but i count approx four pack marks here (against two or more opp defenders), about four leads (i think) and two or three contested (from behind or one on one with ball being bombed on head).  He is also a bloody clever player at times with ground ball and converting them into goals in a one on one situation .....sometimes even in a pack as we saw on the weekend...

https://www.afl.com.au/video/523377/get-excited-watch-the-best-highlights-of-ben-brown?videoId=523377&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1605154806001

Edited July 20, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[monoccular 17,429]

5 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Anyone else rather see Harmes in for Viney and Vanders hold his spot? gives us Grunt but can also be more damaging around the ground. 

Sounds like a reasonable move, but will not happen, unless JV “has a niggle” and is being rested. 

5 hours ago, dpositive said:

Not sure which polish strategy will help.Lech Walesa and the dock strikers did bring down the previous regime, forming impenetrable lines at the docklands despite powerful opposition. The polish pope also intstigated reforms and labour workforce statements around fairness and equitable treatment.

While both were remarkably successful perhaps you are referring to some sports ground tactics which I am not aware of. Does Melksham have some polish heritage?

Ezra Poyas was the last one I remember. 

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

I am also really looking forward to BBB kicking 3-4 goals in a game just to show that he is still up to it. I like the structure that he brings to our forward 50 but he Tmac and LJ need to maintain some separation . We want multiple choices not all jumping at the same ball.

Go DEES…!!!!

What a sensible idea - are you on the short list for replacement forward coach? If not, you should be.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

I am also really looking forward to BBB kicking 3-4 goals in a game just to show that he is still up to it. I like the structure that he brings to our forward 50 but he Tmac and LJ need to maintain some separation . We want multiple choices not all jumping at the same ball.

Go DEES…!!!!

This is crucial to whether BB in eventually clicks for us IMO.  Keep BB mostly deep?  Macca roaming higher but playing a fair % of time at CHF for structure especially holding that CHF position whenever 666 is in play.

Then there's Dogga.  Do we use him as the decoy out wide to the non-Fritta flank or does he just ruck for when Gawn is on the bench and at other times he is also covering for BB and Macca when rested?  I tend to prefer this latter option while he is a rookie in order to keep him as fresh as possible off the bench while he continues to build a tank and muscle over the next few seasons.  And his marking ability/confidence.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[leave it to deever 17,511]

2 hours ago, Demons11 said:

Just go back 2 games then.  It’s hardly surprising is my point 

Im just talking about the derivatives of footy betting thats all. You say Dees should be faves as we are on top of the ladder. Last week we were just over a dollar to win against eight bucks to hawks. Yes port was great but excluding ladder possie and taking in both teams last six games , i think quite a few would be surprised we are faves this week.

Im bouyed by the markets confidence at least.