3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

It isn't "clearly running away from contact tracers". If it were, we'd be seeing spiralling new case numbers. Testing rates are significantly up (over 45,000) but positives are flat at 4-5. That's not "running away" from us.

 

Probably find that number jumps in the next few days...

57 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A bit of left field thinking here but if the situation isn’t looking great (but not dire) by this time next week,  why not cancel Queens-birthday and give both sides the bye for the weekend of 11 June - 14 June (round 13)

like it a lot

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

And how long does that last? Will we have full crowds by September?

[censored] over this

Yep, it’s way too much to handle right now. Trying so hard not to think about it too much :(

1 hour ago, rjay said:

Probably find that number jumps in the next few days...

Why "probably"?

Possibly, sure.

But if it was going to spiral, it was going to be the last few days, when people were still registering infections from pre-lockdown, before we'd noticed there was community spread going on.

Testing rates across those days have been high, so we're getting as accurate a read on it as we can.

Sure, it's possible it gets worse from here, but I don't know how you can argue it's probable. IMO, it's probable it flatlines and/or decreases from here, as the preceding infectious period for new cases now starts to run into the days we were already under restrictions, and then in lockdown.

The 7 days is up midnight Thursday but what if we get 6-8 positive cases on Thursday?

The lockdown would continue on if that were to occur, probably for another 5-7 days. 

My realistic view is 2-4 weeks of lockdown ... but we've been lucky so far in terms of avoiding big numbers contracting this damn disease.  Bloody lucky in fact

People should not be underestimating this particular strain of the virus.  It's the Indian varient and highly contageous

We will do very well to reel it back in ... but if the government doesn't get its act together with the quarantine hotels, it could easily rear its ugly head again.  More than twice over

If it was me I'd be stopping all international flights (that aren't essential) until at least the whole country is vaccinated

The cost becomes much greater every time we have a lockdown 

Major Cost vs Major Cost ... take the lesser cost

Re the footy ... whilst we're in lockdown in Victoria play the games where the crowds can attend but the AFL then has to make sure all the clubs are compensated adequately and fairly (that compensation might have to extend into 2022)

We won't be the only Victorian team losing revenue but a big part of that revenue can be recompensed down the track

Just like last season, the TV ratings could go through the roof but the broadcasters will want crowd involvement.  Keep them happy and the dollars will roll in

Edited May 30, 20213 yr by Macca

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Why "probably"?

Possibly, sure.

But if it was going to spiral, it was going to be the last few days, when people were still registering infections from pre-lockdown, before we'd noticed there was community spread going on.

Testing rates across those days have been high, so we're getting as accurate a read on it as we can.

Sure, it's possible it gets worse from here, but I don't know how you can argue it's probable. IMO, it's probable it flatlines and/or decreases from here, as the preceding infectious period for new cases now starts to run into the days we were already under restrictions, and then in lockdown.

I hope you are right...

Why probable...I think there may be a lot more in the incubation period.

I hope I'm wrong.

7 hours ago, Macca said:

 If it was me I'd be stopping all international flights (that aren't essential) until at least the whole country is vaccinated

I can't believe this isnt happening already

8 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Why "probably"?

Possibly, sure.

But if it was going to spiral, it was going to be the last few days, when people were still registering infections from pre-lockdown, before we'd noticed there was community spread going on.

Testing rates across those days have been high, so we're getting as accurate a read on it as we can.

Sure, it's possible it gets worse from here, but I don't know how you can argue it's probable. IMO, it's probable it flatlines and/or decreases from here, as the preceding infectious period for new cases now starts to run into the days we were already under restrictions, and then in lockdown.

Agree Titan some on here are simply alarmist!!!

Despite many weeks of thousands of spectators attending games and travelling on public transport to get there we have a lock down due to one person coming in to the country.

That this one case has led to multiples cases does show the potential extent of the spread and the virulence of this virus.

it would be good if we had an effective quarantine system in place. Our tracking and tracing has improved although we are still only told of cases with no emphasis on severity.

The tracking and tracing is supported by an effective vaccination program . 

It is disappointing there is a case from a Nursing home staff member when this sector including residents are the most vulnerable and should be vaccinated.

The vaccination does not stop spread and only decreases the effect of the symptoms therefore helping reduce spread as shown overseas.

Our health system should be recognised as having the ability to identify and treat this health problem. Not only tracking and tracing source but treating the severity and increasing vaccination to most vulnerable, not just testing many unaffected.

We nowhave capacity deal with intensive cases while also monitoring less severe cases.

While lockdowns limit spread, the actions of our population in adhering to separation, registration and sanitation measures, has also shown some effectiveness..

12 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Despite many weeks of thousands of spectators attending games and travelling on public transport to get there we have a lock down due to one person coming in to the country.

That this one case has led to multiples cases does show the potential extent of the spread and the virulence of this virus.

it would be good if we had an effective quarantine system in place. Our tracking and tracing has improved although we are still only told of cases with no emphasis on severity.

The tracking and tracing is supported by an effective vaccination program . 

It is disappointing there is a case from a Nursing home staff member when this sector including residents are the most vulnerable and should be vaccinated.

The vaccination does not stop spread and only decreases the effect of the symptoms therefore helping reduce spread as shown overseas.

Our health system should be recognised as having the ability to identify and treat this health problem. Not only tracking and tracing source but treating the severity and increasing vaccination to most vulnerable, not just testing many unaffected.

We nowhave capacity deal with intensive cases while also monitoring less severe cases.

While lockdowns limit spread, the actions of our population in adhering to separation, registration and sanitation measures, has also shown some effectiveness..

My issue is that Victoria has shown it is unable  to run the systems as compared to other states 

The question is why? Its no good blaming others Vic and Vic alone is struggling to get on top of even minor outbreaks

12 minutes ago, Kent said:

My issue is that Victoria has shown it is unable  to run the systems as compared to other states 

The question is why? Its no good blaming others Vic and Vic alone is struggling to get on top of even minor outbreaks

I think very state has had some sort of outbreak.

As the largest economy our density and activity levels are higher. We have more reliance on public transport than other capitals. I think we are testing greater numbers and have had more problems with receiving and distribution of vaccines.

There seems to be a knee jerk reaction and response system. The lock down has been identified as the best solution. There has never been a recognition that this is a health issue and our health system needed to be adjusted to be fit for the changed demands.

Another 'Wait and see' thanks to this mystery case in the aged care facility. Its all up in the air.

25 minutes ago, dpositive said:

I think very state has had some sort of outbreak.

As the largest economy our density and activity levels are higher. We have more reliance on public transport than other capitals. I think we are testing greater numbers and have had more problems with receiving and distribution of vaccines.

There seems to be a knee jerk reaction and response system. The lock down has been identified as the best solution. There has never been a recognition that this is a health issue and our health system needed to be adjusted to be fit for the changed demands.

quite plainly it is being run as a political solution rather than a health issue While this continues our overall response will be poor and Vics will suffer more

Spreading into aged care where only 1/3rd of staff have been vaccinated. How the fudge? What a disgusting debacle. 

16 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Everyone said the 5-day lockdown in February was going to be extended.

It wasn't.

We are in our 162nd day of flattening the curve....

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I can't believe this isnt happening already

Re international flights coming into our country and in response to your post ... 

Yes,  particularly for countries such as the USA,  the UK & India where not only has the disease often been out of control, but there is a lot of international travel between Australia and those countries

So one slips through the net because of the shoddy Quarantine hotel operation.  An accident waiting to happen but all our so-called leaders on both sides of politics are to blame

I stopped taking sides decades ago Gonzo ... they are all incompetent in my view

I'd like to be more optimistic but taking up that stance can often lead to greater disappointment

10 hours ago, Macca said:

but if the government doesn't get its act together with the quarantine hotels

Idk why they even chose to quarantine people in hotels. This was always gonna go south. I know, hindsight is 20/20. But I’ve been thinking from the get-go that while building a purpose-built facility for quarantining, preferably in the middle of nowhere, they could’ve quarantined returning Aussies in disused army barracks for example. The hotels they’re using are not designed for quarantining and no amount of adaptations will ever make them suitable. AND, they’re all in the heart of the city! There’s an invitation for spreading if ever I saw one. I had to quarantine in a hotel in Adelaide and I lost count of the instances of potential for breaching rules. And this was AFTER the second wave and long lockdown in Melbz. 
Anyways, that’s my two bob’s worth. ??

15 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Idk why they even chose to quarantine people in hotels. This was always gonna go south. I know, hindsight is 20/20. But I’ve been thinking from the get-go that while building a purpose-built facility for quarantining, preferably in the middle of nowhere, they could’ve quarantined returning Aussies in disused army barracks for example. The hotels they’re using are not designed for quarantining and no amount of adaptations will ever make them suitable. AND, they’re all in the heart of the city! There’s an invitation for spreading if ever I saw one. I had to quarantine in a hotel in Adelaide and I lost count of the instances of potential for breaching rules. And this was AFTER the second wave and long lockdown in Melbz. 
Anyways, that’s my two bob’s worth. ??

Doors opening & closing, hallways occupied by all & sundry, all breathing the same air in through the ducts & air vents.  The covid particles floating about every which way

The Staff coming & going at the workplace, back home and into the community

What could possibly go wrong?

All this with the bureaucrats running the show when they couldn't run a bloody chook raffle

6 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Idk why they even chose to quarantine people in hotels. This was always gonna go south. I know, hindsight is 20/20. But I’ve been thinking from the get-go that while building a purpose-built facility for quarantining, preferably in the middle of nowhere, they could’ve quarantined returning Aussies in disused army barracks for example. The hotels they’re using are not designed for quarantining and no amount of adaptations will ever make them suitable. AND, they’re all in the heart of the city! There’s an invitation for spreading if ever I saw one. I had to quarantine in a hotel in Adelaide and I lost count of the instances of potential for breaching rules. And this was AFTER the second wave and long lockdown in Melbz. 
Anyways, that’s my two bob’s worth. ??

I agree that both Feds and States should have built purpose built quarantine facilities by now however its more than just the building that needs to be thought through.

The logistics of feeding, securing /guarding, testing, and otherwise caring for the quarantined in an isolated dedicated quarantine facility is significant. As I understand it from a resident at the Howard Springs site, staff live on site. If we want staff who are dedicated to the one facility to avoid cross contamination from the quarantine site to some other place (such as happened in Victoria) you are looking at a workforce that is only working the one job and the one site for an extended period. Then there is the transport of people from airports to the quarantine site.

I'm not saying this isn't doable but I am saying it isn't easy.

The Federal Government doesn't employ health care workers like the States but has the Federal Police and Army (for guarding purposes) to do this without State Territory involvement is challenging. There are also very limited number of Federal sites that are suitable as discussed below.

The idea of using "disused army barracks" I think is problematic. Firstly because we want individuals isolated whereas army barracks congregate them. Secondly in use army barracks wouldn't meet community standards for accommodation for a fortnight (my son just did Kapooka basic infantry training https://www.army.gov.au/our-life/training/army-recruit-training-centre-kapooka) - disused army barracks would be of a lower standard of repair and amenity.

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Doors opening & closing, hallways occupied by all & sundry, all breathing the same air in through the ducts & air vents.  The covid particles floating about every which way

The Staff coming & going at the workplace, back home and into the community

What could possibly go wrong?

All this with the bureaucrats running the show when they couldn't run a bloody chook raffle

Exactly! So many opportunities for spreading. On one occasion, the daily visit by the cops and I couldn’t find my mask so didn’t open the door. Through the closed door, the cop says, “don’t worry about it, just open the door anyway,” And that’s just one example of myriad breaches. 

13 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Exactly! So many opportunities for spreading. On one occasion, the daily visit by the cops and I couldn’t find my mask so didn’t open the door. Through the closed door, the cop says, “don’t worry about it, just open the door anyway,” And that’s just one example of myriad breaches. 

This was in hotel quarantine or self quarantine WCW?

Just now, Rusty Nails said:

This was in hotel quarantine or self quarantine WCW?

Hotel quarantine. At Peppers hotel, Adelaide. 

24 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Exactly! So many opportunities for spreading. On one occasion, the daily visit by the cops and I couldn’t find my mask so didn’t open the door. Through the closed door, the cop says, “don’t worry about it, just open the door anyway,” And that’s just one example of myriad breaches. 

That's astonishing

Having people who haven't got the disease live in an adjacent room to people that do have the disease (for 2 weeks) sums it all up

Everything else that flows on from that poorly thought out arrangement just makes the issue worse

There's a way to do it but it means commandeering various building and paying staff an appropriate amount to stay full time on these premises (wearing full PPE gear)

And don't have those in isolation stay in the same building as those who have the disease

Draconian measures with much stricter rules than we have in jails ... but stop the international flights except for essential services

3 hours ago, Kent said:

My issue is that Victoria has shown it is unable  to run the systems as compared to other states 

The question is why? Its no good blaming others Vic and Vic alone is struggling to get on top of even minor outbreaks

Some possible reasons:

• Melbourne is the city with the largest population in Australia. (Don't believe the story that Sydney is the biggest. Sydney's number is inflated by inclusion of population centres further from Sydney than Geelong is from Melbourne...yet Geelong's population is not included in Melbourne's total)
• Apparently Melburnians travel more across the metropolis than Sydney people do across theirs thereby increasing the scope for transmission of the virus (this was discussed on 774 last week)
• At this time of year, Melbourne is the coldest mainland city which it would appear allows the virus to survive longer on surfaces
• the QR codes system in Victoria was a mess with multiple instead of a single system plus a slack appoach to its use by the community
• Victoria's Health Department has been shown to be a shambles with the head of the Department being forced out resigning last year. Changes to large organisations inevitably take time, so it's no surprise if it still hasn't got its act together

 

Edited May 31, 20213 yr by La Dee-vina Comedia

2 hours ago, Kent said:

My issue is that Victoria has shown it is unable  to run the systems as compared to other states 

The question is why? Its no good blaming others Vic and Vic alone is struggling to get on top of even minor outbreaks

The last two outbreaks in Victoria came from SA quarantine and Sydney's northern beaches. I'm not sure what the Victorian government can do when a contact of Wollert man (who came from SA) travels to numerous places around  Melbourne for a week with symptoms and doesn't get tested.

Get vaccinated. It's the only way of dramatically reducing the risk of severe disease or dying, and it does help lower transmission, if not completely.