Good chance we could be on top of the ladder by the end of the weekend.

It's been a while.

2004 Round 18

As usual such wonderful memories are soured by the reality of the ensuing rounds.

With ever increasing injuries we lost all remaining games of the season. Most by decent margins.

Looking forward to better memories this year.

https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2004.html

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by Diamond_Jim

Not this week.

Dogs to beat Richmond handily. What would we need to beat NM by to pick up 25% points.

WB currently 631/360 F/A

MFC currently 544/361 F/A

WB beat Richmond 100-60.

We would need to win 200-60 or 160-40 or something like that.

If WB Richmond is closer, let's say 90-80, we would need to win 120-40.

In other words in either case we need to kick an absolute bag and keep them to SFA.

In my view the best chance is round 9.

Round 8: MFC to beat Sydney, WB to beat Carlton.

Round 9: MFC to beat Carlton, WB to lose to Port at Adelaide.

That's the best chance.

Round 10 Dogs v Saints, Dees v Adelaide at Adelaide. Round 9 for mine, barring a close WB/Tigers game and us laying down an absolute flogging.

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by Superunknown

23 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Good chance we could be on top of the ladder by the end of the weekend.

It's been a while.

2004 Round 18

As usual such wonderful memories are soured by the reality of the ensuing rounds.

With ever increasing injuries we lost all remaining games of the season. Most by decent margins.

Looking forward to better memories this year.

https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2004.html

Yep i remember it well, getting bent over by the Crows who had just sacked Gary Ayres to the tune of 74 points.

Good times for 1 week. Like you said Diamond just fell in a hole and just climbing out of it now.

8 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Not this week.

Dogs to beat Richmond handily. What would we need to beat NM by to pick up 25% points.

WB currently 631/360 F/A

MFC currently 544/361 F/A

WB beat Richmond 100-60.

We would need to win 200-60 or 160-40 or something like that.

If WB Richmond is closer, let's say 90-80, we would need to win 120-40.

In other words in either case we need to kick an absolute bag and keep them to SFA.

In my view the best chance is round 9.

Round 8: MFC to beat Sydney, WB to beat Carlton.

Round 9: MFC to beat Carlton, WB to lose to Port at Adelaide.

That's the best chance.

Round 10 Dogs v Saints, Dees v Adelaide at Adelaide. Round 9 for mine, barring a close WB/Tigers game and us laying down an absolute flogging.

Or we could do it the old fashioned way and both WB and the Dees go undefeated until our Round 11 clash and then we beat them percentage be damned.

7 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Not this week.

Dogs to beat Richmond handily. What would we need to beat NM by to pick up 25% points.

WB currently 631/360 F/A

MFC currently 544/361 F/A

WB beat Richmond 100-60.

We would need to win 200-60 or 160-40 or something like that.

If WB Richmond is closer, let's say 90-80, we would need to win 120-40.

In other words in either case we need to kick an absolute bag and keep them to SFA.

In my view the best chance is round 9.

Round 8: MFC to beat Sydney, WB to beat Carlton.

Round 9: MFC to beat Carlton, WB to lose to Port at Adelaide.

That's the best chance.

Round 10 Dogs v Saints, Dees v Adelaide at Adelaide. Round 9 for mine, barring a close WB/Tigers game and us laying down an absolute flogging.

I can see this scenario playing out. Richmond will try to lock this game down, could even be a goal or two lower.

I think people underrate sides that we beat. I think Richmond will beat the Doggies. Richmond's pressure was really good for much of the game, but we were better. We should be the only undefeated side at the end of this round.

Who cares.  Make finals first aim.  Go for top 4 after that.  Top of the table means nothing imv and we have so far achieved diddly squat other than a very good start to a season.

14 minutes ago, ManDee said:

I think people underrate sides that we beat. I think Richmond will beat the Doggies. Richmond's pressure was really good for much of the game, but we were better. We should be the only undefeated side at the end of this round.

A WB-Melb multi is paying 1.61 on SportsBet. A Rich-Melb multi is paying 2.71.

No Dusty, remember.

I don't underrate the teams we beat, I just don't underestimate Footscray - so hot right now. Round 11 is gonna be a walk-off.

 

 

41 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Not this week.

Dogs to beat Richmond handily. What would we need to beat NM by to pick up 25% points.

WB currently 631/360 F/A

MFC currently 544/361 F/A

WB beat Richmond 100-60.

We would need to win 200-60 or 160-40 or something like that.

If WB Richmond is closer, let's say 90-80, we would need to win 120-40.

In other words in either case we need to kick an absolute bag and keep them to SFA.

In my view the best chance is round 9.

Round 8: MFC to beat Sydney, WB to beat Carlton.

Round 9: MFC to beat Carlton, WB to lose to Port at Adelaide.

That's the best chance.

Round 10 Dogs v Saints, Dees v Adelaide at Adelaide. Round 9 for mine, barring a close WB/Tigers game and us laying down an absolute flogging.

Don’t write off Richmond just yet. Martin might be out but so is Dunkley, Tigers still have a lot of talent. Bulldogs biggest test this year.

Friday night's contest will be fascinating. Richmond need to win, otherwise risk going 3-4. I think the Bulldogs are overrated. Their draw has been softer than ours. But Richmond are now missing Martin and Prestia from their midfield. I'd be tipping the Bulldogs, although Tim English out for them is big, with one less mid rotation with Dunkley out.

1 hour ago, Win4theAges said:

Yep i remember it well, getting bent over by the Crows who had just sacked Gary Ayres to the tune of 74 points.

Good times for 1 week. Like you said Diamond just fell in a hole and just climbing out of it now.

We actually lost to Adelaide earlier that year in the game after Ayres was sacked.

We got flogged by Port in round 19 by a very similar margin to be displaced from top spot, and then the wheels fell off that year.

We lost both games at Football Park that year by a combined margin of 147 points.

A contender - we were not.

Edited April 29, 20214 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

Quoting odds points to the weight of money, there is a correlation to likely winner but as we know it is no guarantee. More money thinks the doggies will beat Richmond. But who have the doggies really beaten? We are $1.01 in a two horse race that is insane. Dees on top this week! 

I can’t see why we can’t be 13 & 0 going into the bye. 

North in Tassie 

Swans G

Carlton G

Crows AAMI

Dogs Marvel

Lions Traeger

Pies G

Only 6 teams can win it this year and that’s  Richmond, Geelong, Port, Bulldogs, Eagles and us.

Our draw is perfectly spaced this year in that we still have away games in the second half of the season against the Eagles, Port and Geelong but they are spaced apart with easier opponents in between. 
 

Some might not agree with the Eagles but I’m not writing them off just yet.

Edited April 29, 20214 yr by Bombay Airconditioning

We want to be first on the ladder at the end of the season. Before then it means nothing.

16 minutes ago, A F said:

Friday night's contest will be fascinating. Richmond need to win, otherwise risk going 3-4. I think the Bulldogs are overrated. Their draw has been softer than ours. But Richmond are now missing Martin and Prestia from their midfield. I'd be tipping the Bulldogs, although Tim English out for them is big, with one less mid rotation with Dunkley out.

I didn’t realise  about English being out, I’m glad I tipped the Tigers.

2 minutes ago, dl4e said:

We want to be first on the ladder at the end of the season. Before then it means nothing.

of course but it's time to enjoy a season rather than worry too much how it will end.

Week to week enjoyment is something we haven't had for almost twenty years.

Richmond v Footscray will be very enjoyable whoever wins for so many reasons. A draw would be perfect

Port are the side we want to start losing a few. All that matters is that we finish top 4 and have an all MCG route to the GF.

i said in another thread...Who have the Doggies actually beaten this year that is worthy of praise?

WC in Melbourne? We saw what the Cats did - they are still the side that cannot travel.

Lions? Just ... and with Neale not firing.  

Richmond have there back up against the wall so i think we will see a real cracking game on Friday night. Tigers by 4 points.

Still way to early to worry about ladder position and given our history of complacency, wouldn't want the boys to even think about it for another 10 weeks. 

12 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We lost both games at Football Park that year by a combined margin of 147 points.

A contender - we were not.

This. We might have been top of the ladder after round 18, but we weren't even close to being contenders, even without the injuries.

We were a couple of gun midfielders short of being able to compete with Brisbane, Port or St Kilda in finals.

This year feels different. There aren't any sides that we aren't capable of beating.

Not sure if you really want to finish top... when was the last time a team that won the minor premiership actually won the flag ?

top4 with a home final sounds better 

31 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I can’t see why we can’t be 13 & 0 going into the bye. 

North in Tassie 

Swans G

Carlton G

Crows AAMI

Dogs Marvel

Lions Traeger

Pies G

Only 6 teams can win it this year and that’s  Richmond, Geelong, Port, Bulldogs, Eagles and us.

Our draw is perfectly spaced this year in that we still have away games in the second half of the season against the Eagles, Port and Geelong but they are spaced apart with easier opponents in between. 
 

Some might not agree with the Eagles but I’m not writing them off just yet.

Lions are more likely to win more H and A games than Eagles as they win away Have already done that with Carlton and Pies. 

Lions also have last 4 games at  home from memory 3 of those are Pies ( in lieu of Covid Easter Eve Game switch  to Marvel) Freo and Eagles last round. 
 

Eagles will need to win at least 2 away from home In H and A fixture, and need Home games in Finals  really. Impossible for them to do a Doggies 2016 as likely all games away!!!

39 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Quoting odds points to the weight of money, there is a correlation to likely winner but as we know it is no guarantee. More money thinks the doggies will beat Richmond. But who have the doggies really beaten? We are $1.01 in a two horse race that is insane. Dees on top this week! 

Well quite obviously there is no guarantee, my point was to look at the price action, it's useful to consider.

FWIW I have gone with the Tigers-Dees multi.

23 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Port are the side we want to start losing a few. All that matters is that we finish top 4 and have an all MCG route to the GF.

So right Tony 90,000 forget about Covid!! 

20 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

This year feels different. There aren't any sides that we aren't capable of beating.

This. It'll come down to between the ears at the pointy end. Ridiculous talent, more than enough to win it. I hope we have a sounder mind that poor old Greg Norman in 1996. I still have nightmares of that morning.

Usually top 4 requires 16 wins with the top team having 17 or 18.

Win the next three and it becomes far more than a dream