The Run to the Finals.

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

We are 6th on %.

The top 4:  Freo, Pies, Lions and Crows are a lock to stay there (in some order).

5th and 6th for finals will be from:

(Likely wins in Green)

• 5th:  North:  4/2, 165.9%.  Will play: Bulldogs @ Hobart,  Brisbane @ Gabba,  Freo @ Arden St.
• 6th: Demons:  4/2, 125.7%.  Will play: Crows @ Casey, Freo @ Freo, Lions @ Casey
• 7th: Bulldogs:  4/2, 107.3%.  Will play:  North @ Hobart, Crows @ Norwood, Richmond @ Whitten
• 8th:  Blues:  3/3, 112.3%.  Will play Freo @ Ikon, GCS @ Metricon, Giants @ ??

My thoughts:

• There is a big 8-point between North and Bulldogs which will impact our chances of finals. 
• North have a good enough % that if they beat the Bulldogs they are in.
• We need to win at least one game and maintain % to keep Bulldogs out and stay ahead of Carlton. 
• The last two games should give Carlton a % boost.  They have had a dream (imv a manipulated) easy run vs lowly and newbie teams, to try to get them into the finals.  It will probably work.  Could well be at our expense as it was in 2019.

I don't think we will make it.  ?

 

 

[dl4e 5,851]

We play 3 of the top 4 teams in the run home. The only saving grace  is that 2 of them are at Casey which helps a little. 

Problem is our style of play. There is too muh short stuffgoing on with bad decisions involved. Good sides will pounce on that and make you pay. Also our defence looks shakey. Birch is a good player but can't kick. Lampard and Eamonson are decent players who often go un noticed but are a couple of years away from being solid.

I think you are right and we won't make it but if we can pull an upset over Adelaide there may be a chance.

[BDA 23,048]

Carlton have received a dream draw again. I'm no conspiracy theorist but jeez they are blessed when it comes to the fixture.

Our best is good enough beat the Crows and Lions but i'm not sure we can produce when the chips are down against the good teams.

We're an outside chance at best. We'll rue the bulldogs loss at the end of the season.

[dworship 3,343]

25 minutes ago, dl4e said:

We play 3 of the top 4 teams in the run home. The only saving grace  is that 2 of them are at Casey which helps a little. 

Problem is our style of play. There is too muh short stuffgoing on with bad decisions involved. Good sides will pounce on that and make you pay. Also our defence looks shakey. Birch is a good player but can't kick. Lampard and Eamonson are decent players who often go un noticed but are a couple of years away from being solid.

I think you are right and we won't make it but if we can pull an upset over Adelaide there may be a chance.

What's the word on Meg Downie? She's not shakey.

[FarNorthernD 5,863]

1 hour ago, dworship said:

What's the word on Meg Downie? She's not shakey.

Agree re your not shaky assessment, we need her back

From the MFC website

“Meg Downie will need another week before she’s in contention to return from a high ankle sprain”

[deanox 10,070]

One thing not mentioned here is that the ladder to date has been heavily influenced by an unofficial "conference" style system.

Freo: Giants (W), WCE (W), Adel (W), GCS (W), Bris (L), WCE (W)

Bris: Richmond (W), GCS (W), WCE(W), Adel (L), Freo (W), Giants (W)

Adel: WCE (W), Giants (W), Freo (L), Bris (W), Saints (W), GCS (W)

The teams ranked 2-4 on the ladder have all played 4 games against the bottom 6 sides, and are all 1-1 against each other. Someone has to win those games against each other. How would they have gone against the "middle of the table" teams like Carlton, the Saints and the Dees.

 

Meanwhile, Melbourne has played the teams currently positioned 1st, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 14th.  We've won 3 games against the bottom 6 sides and we're 1-2 against top 7 sides, but we lost to the Bulldogs after we kicked 2.12 (7 scoring shots to 14).

 

Collingwood seems to be a head above this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if 1 or 2 of Freo, Bris or Adel get found out in the last three weeks as they come up against teams like Collingwood and the next tier (North, Footscray and the Dees).

Edited March 8, 2021 by deanox

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

We are 6th on %.

The top 4:  Freo, Pies, Lions and Crows are a lock to stay there (in some order).

5th and 6th for finals will be from:

(Likely wins in Green)

• 5th:  North:  5/2, 162.9%.  Will play:  Brisbane @ Gabba,  Freo @ Arden St.
• 6th: Demons:  5/2, 136.4%.  Will play: Freo @ Freo, Brisbane @ Casey
• 7th: Bulldogs:  4/3, 101.3%.  Will play: Crows @ Norwood, Richmond @ Whitten
• 8th:  Blues:  3/4, 108.8%.  GCS @ Metricon, Giants @ ??

My thoughts:

• Carlton will beat GCS and Giants and will end up 5 wins/4 losses but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th.
• North and Dees both play Freo and Lions with North the much better %
• Bulldogs will beat Richmond but lose to Crows and end up 5/4 but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th.

Even if we lose our last 2 games and minimise the losses to protect our % we should end up 6th

Defence will be the name of the game for the last two rounds.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

The finals have an unusual structure:

Points to note:

• 1st and 2nd get a rest in wk 1 of finals.
• 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th play off in two sudden death, Elimination finals  
• Essentially there is no advantage in finishing 3rd or 4th.
• Great opportunity for us.

[whatwhat say what 23,880]

8 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

• Essentially there is no advantage in finishing 3rd or 4th.

other than a home final, presumably?

at the moment bears are 3rd, crows are 4th - would much rather be at home at casey than having to travel interstate - particularly as it would likely be 'same day travel as play' situation

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

I wasn't going to look too closely at who the top 4 play in the last 2 rounds.  But given they will be critical to who ends up 3rd and 4th for the two Elimination Finals this is their forthcoming fixture:

Fremantle	Mel	NM
Brisbane Lions	NM	Mel
Collingwood	StK	Ade
Adelaide	WB	Col

Anybody's guess at the order after round 9.

From now on it looks like 2 rounds of finals before finals, given that all current top 6 teams play at least one top 6 team.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

1 minute ago, whatwhat say what said:

other than a home final, presumably?

at the moment bears are 3rd, crows are 4th - would much rather be at home at casey than having to travel interstate - particularly as it would likely be 'same day travel as play' situation

True, 3rd and 4th will get a Home final.  Can't see us getting a Home Final unless we make it to the GF.

Wouldn't mind playing the Pies in Vic for an Elim final.  They've had only a moderately difficult fixture with no interstate games so their position flatters them a little.  And we can't play as badly against them as we did recently.

[58er 6,872]

18 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

We are 6th on %.

The top 4:  Freo, Pies, Lions and Crows are a lock to stay there (in some order).

5th and 6th for finals will be from:

(Likely wins in Green)

• 5th:  North:  5/2, 162.9%.  Will play:  Brisbane @ Gabba,  Freo @ Arden St.
• 6th: Demons:  5/2, 136.4%.  Will play: Freo @ Freo, Brisbane @ Casey
• 7th: Bulldogs:  4/3, 101.3%.  Will play: Crows @ Norwood, Richmond @ Whitten
• 8th:  Blues:  3/4, 108.8%.  GCS @ Metricon, Giants @ ??

My thoughts:

• Carlton will beat GCS and Giants and will end up 5 wins/4 losses but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th.
• North and Dees both play Freo and Lions with North the much better %
• Bulldogs will beat Richmond but lose to Crows and end up 5/4 but unlikely to make up the % to get to 6th.

Even if we lose our last 2 games and minimise the losses to protect our % we should end up 6th

Defence will be the name of the game for the last two rounds.

Sub consciously changing a game plan ie concentrating on defence any more than usual is not  the way to go.

Our style is completely different to most other teams and to change now would be unwise.

Beating Freo at Freo might be a bridge too far but Lions at Casey is winnable in our form at our home ground.

[BDA 23,048]

We are definitely in the driving seat. I can’t see the Bulldogs making up the percentage and I reckon the manner of that loss to Freo will knock the stuffing out of Carlton so i don't see them winning both their games now.

That said, I reckon we will beat the Lions at Casey and not need to rely on percentage.

[darkhorse72 1,943]

Useless blues had it in the bag today and blew it.  Would have opened up a potential change in the top spots.  

[Meggs 598]

On 3/14/2021 at 2:59 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

We are 6th on %.

The top 4:  Freo, Pies, Lions and Crows are a lock to stay there.

5th and 6th for finals will be from:

• North
• Demons
• Bulldogs
• Blues

Meggs thoughts:

• Carlton will thrash GCS and Giants and will end up with 20 points, circa 136%.
• Bulldogs play Adelaide and Richmond & 1 win gets them to 20 points circa 110%.
• North & Melb have tough games against Freo & Lions.  Expect Roos win both games to get them to 28 points and Coll, Bris and Adel win one game each and finish on 28 points.
• If Melb lose both, we will finish on 20 points & have a % less than 136% and end up 7th.
• Ergo we have to win one of the last 2 games

Have I got this right?  

On 3/14/2021 at 2:59 PM, Lucifer's Hero said:

 

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

12 hours ago, Meggs said:

Have I got this right?  

Yes, if Carlton can lift from 108.8% to 136%. Hence why I suggested we need to keep any losses to an absolute minimum margin so our % drop keeps us above Carlton.  GWS still have the remnants of a good side so they could take it right up to Carlton so their % gain may not be great.

For mine Carlton lifting their % sufficiently is a tall order for them but it could happen.   And we can't afford a blowout loss.

Agreed the only way to not miss finals on % again, is to win one of the games.  Brisbane at Casey is our best chance. 

Should we miss finals on % to Carlton I will be filthy as they have had a really soft draw one deliberately crafted by the AFL so they had a 'successful' season. 

 

EDIT:   I hadn't seen last night's result when I wrote the above.  Carlton's is now on 128.1%.  We now MUST WIN a game to make finals

Edited March 19, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[BDA 23,048]

30 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Yes, if Carlton can lift from 108.8% to 136%. Hence why I suggested we need to keep any losses to an absolute minimum margin so our % drop keeps us above Carlton.  GCS still have the remnants of a good side so they could take it right up to Carlton so their % gain may not be great.

For mine Carlton lifting their % sufficiently is a tall order for them but it could happen.   And we can't afford a blowout loss.

Agreed the only way to not miss finals on % again, is to win one of the games.  Brisbane at Casey is our best chance. 

Should we miss finals on % to Carlton I will be filthy as they have had a really soft draw one deliberately crafted by the AFL so they had a 'successful' season. 

 

EDIT:   I hadn't seen last night's result when I wrote the above.  Carlton's is now on 128.1%.  We now MUST WIN a game to make finals

Carlton are by far the jammiest team in this league. They have GWS in the last round who are made of sterner stuff than the Suns but they’ll just be playing for pride so you never know.

It take a huge effort to win in Freo but I think we’ll beat the Lions at Casey in the final round. Our home record is strong.

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

3 hours ago, Better days ahead said:

Carlton are by far the jammiest team in this league. They have GWS in the last round who are made of sterner stuff than the Suns but they’ll just be playing for pride so you never know.

It take a huge effort to win in Freo but I think we’ll beat the Lions at Casey in the final round. Our home record is strong.

I meant to type GWS (not GCS) 'still have the remnants of a good side' so could beat Carlton.  iirc GWS made the GF a few years ago?  I have amended my post.

Will certainly be barracking for a big win by GWS next week.

[Meggs 598]

After watching the Lions ? skittle the Roos ? yesterday, I believe winning today against Freo is our best chance of making the finals.

Brisbane will be very hard to beat even at Casey Fields.

Interestingly North has not beaten any top 6 teams this year.  Their 5 wins were Geelong, St Kilda, Carlton, Richmond & Bulldogs.  Whereas we’ve beaten GCS, Richmond, North, St Kilda & Adelaide (2 x Top 6 teams).

Assuming Carlton win their last game to finish on 20 points their wins would be St Kilda, Richmond, Geelong, GCS & GWS. Inequitable yes but them’s the breaks.

We win one more game and we make it.  Go Dee girls!

[Lucifers Hero 40,746]

Woo Hoo!  We are in the finals!

Who we play probably depends on who wins the Crows vs Pies game.  Unless we beat Brisbane and then a lot of dominoes get to fall as 5 of the top 6 teams play each other next week.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,335]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Woo Hoo!  We are in the finals!

Who we play probably depends on who wins the Crows vs Pies game.  Unless we beat Brisbane and then a lot of dominoes get to fall as 5 of the top 6 teams play each other next week.

If the following happens which is not impossible, we finish 3rd -

We beat Lions

North beat Freo

Pies beat Crows. 

 

[deanox 10,070]

Collingwood is the only top 6 side we didn't beat in the 9 round season. Given we also played the dogs who will finish 7th, we only played 3 teams in the bottom 7, so have had a pretty tough draw.

I have a feeling home finals will make a difference here. Unfortunately it looks like we might travel week 2 regardless (if Collingwood win v Adelaide we'll finish 3rd and play 2nd (Brisbane) week 2, if Adelaide win we'll finish 4th and will play 1st (probably Adelaide or Brisbane) in week 2.

The is a chance that Adelaide win and the percentages will fall our way, so that we finish 4th but Collingwood finish on top, but it would need Collingwood to lose by a small margin in a low scoring game.

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,983]

Looks like all roads lead to Brisbane for a preliminary final whatever the outcome of the game tomorrow, unless the Brisbane area becomes a covid hotspot which could see it moved interstate, just like the other week. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

Fabulous come from behind win against Brisbane.  Turned their season around completely after the disastrous match agaiist the Pies.

Gay (real natural up forward), Pearce, Paxman (BOG), Bannon (so quick), Hanks, Downie, Emonson and Zanker (BOG to half time).  The list goes on.  I's throw Mithen in there but much or her great work to get the ball is offset by a few too many turnovers im afraid as well as poor penetration by foot.

Pitty about Daisy but opportunity for someone else to step up.

Chanel 7 will be forced to put the Demons up now much to theur chargrin i'm sure.