Off-season outlook: Pressure will be on Melbourne and Simon Goodwin

[bing181 8,926]

22 hours ago, rjay said:

I think we do 'bing'...the list is pretty strong now.

Surely we give top 4 a shake this season & from there anything is possible.

There are still a lot of ifs in the Forward line, including Ben Brown. 

[bing181 8,926]

On 12/31/2020 at 5:46 AM, binman said:

But when it is all said and done, once the game starts it is 95%,  maybe more, on the players.

This.

[bing181 8,926]

10 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

We have. Its just that the plan between mids and forwards isn't workable. 

Isn't executable - not with who we have on the park at the moment. No accident that we used our 2 first-round picks for players who can hit a target by foot.

[Same Old 3]

On 12/31/2020 at 7:19 PM, rpfc said:

We have stars in the midfield and down back and we should be pushing top 4. For those that don’t think this - you’re just trying to make failure more palatable. 

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,360]

On 12/31/2020 at 7:53 PM, dworship said:

But they would never be sent there in the circumstances we were. In any case your statement is simply a guess based on no evidence.

I firmly believe that Richmond and Geelong would’ve got the job done had they been sent to Cairns to play Sydney and Freo instead of us.

Why? Because good sides get the job done when the whips are cracking, and they were certainly cracking in the 4th and 3rd last rounds of the season.

Case in point being Geelong. The last round of the season they were down all day against Sydney and were playing terribly. However they willed themselves over the line because they had a top 4 spot to play for. I’m positive they also would’ve got the job in the adverse Cairns weather because that’s what high quality sides and coaches manufacture on a regular basis.

Conversely,  we had a rare finals appearance at stake and the destiny was in our own hands. Unfortunately it took us 3 quarters to wake up on both occasions and the club blew another opportunity on behalf of their supporters. I’m blaming Goodwin first (after a repeat of 2017) and then the playing group second.

Another season of missing finals on the back of blowing a crucial game against a bottom 4 side and he’ll need to be replaced.

[Demon17 5,059]

On 1/1/2021 at 7:35 PM, bing181 said:

Isn't executable - not with who we have on the park at the moment. No accident that we used our 2 first-round picks for players who can hit a target by foot.

Good correction Bing - exactly right on foot skills and lowering eyes to make a good decision

[Deemania since 56 6,550]

On 1/2/2021 at 11:44 AM, Same Old said:

 

Confidence is refreshing and is a good bandwagon to ride into the new season. We also seem to have some great potency in the forward line for the coming year, injuries and recoveries turning out well.

 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

On 12/31/2020 at 3:46 PM, binman said:

Yes a coach is responsible for motivation and creating the optimal environment that supports a win. And of course selecting the right players.

But when it is all said and done, once the game starts it is 95%,  maybe more, on the players. And doubts about goody should not obscure the fact that the players selected in those two games failed and let the club and fans down. They have to wear it.

I'd hate to see blame disproportionately sheeted to goody rather than where it should go- the players.

Wowsa you've missed out arguably the most important responsibility a coach holds. Gameplan.

Since 2018, Goodwin has been too slow to make changes to an unbelievable one-dimensional game plan which in-turn has seen us select the same side for too long, have the same problems during games for too long and lose games in a similar fashion for too long.

Goodwin is largely responsible for where we are as a club. 

The two losses you speak about can still be linked to the same problem areas we've seen for this entire period I'm speaking about. It's nothing new.

[Same Old 3]

Call me a glutton for punishment but I watched the freo game last night - Goodwin either had a bad day at the office or, he has no idea. I like to watch games we lose to see where it was lost and where we can improve.... 

This game was lost not only at selection, but game style. If not for inaccurate kicking from freo we should've been at least six goals down at half time. We played a  hard running hand ball game in driving rain ! We were often caught out of position and freo caught us on the rebound and made it look easy...... Can you believe it ? Also, Please remember that we were beaten by a first year coach while we were a team fighting for finals.

I'd like to share your enthusiasm that he is a good coach - lets persevere with him - it's our year, BUT if we are down 2 and 4 at the end of round six next year and that is assuming we beat Freo (ha! ha!) and Hawthorn it will be the SAME OLD !

[Dr. Gonzo 23,704]

22 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Wowsa you've missed out arguably the most important responsibility a coach holds. Gameplan.

Since 2018, Goodwin has been too slow to make changes to an unbelievable one-dimensional game plan which in-turn has seen us select the same side for too long, have the same problems during games for too long and lose games in a similar fashion for too long.

Goodwin is largely responsible for where we are as a club. 

The two losses you speak about can still be linked to the same problem areas we've seen for this entire period I'm speaking about. It's nothing new.

It's a fine line between persevering and backing your players and system in on the one hand and being slow to react and one dimensional on the other.

[Mono 455]

21 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I firmly believe that Richmond and Geelong would’ve got the job done had they been sent to Cairns to play Sydney and Freo instead of us.

Why? Because good sides get the job done when the whips are cracking, and they were certainly cracking in the 4th and 3rd last rounds of the season.

Case in point being Geelong. The last round of the season they were down all day against Sydney and were playing terribly. However they willed themselves over the line because they had a top 4 spot to play for. I’m positive they also would’ve got the job in the adverse Cairns weather because that’s what high quality sides and coaches manufacture on a regular basis.

Conversely,  we had a rare finals appearance at stake and the destiny was in our own hands. Unfortunately it took us 3 quarters to wake up on both occasions and the club blew another opportunity on behalf of their supporters. I’m blaming Goodwin first (after a repeat of 2017) and then the playing group second.

Another season of missing finals on the back of blowing a crucial game against a bottom 4 side and he’ll need to be replaced.

I've seen nothing since 2018 that gives me any hope for success.

I think Goodwin has fired whatever shots he has and will be gone by mid-year.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,704]

Just now, Mono said:

I've seen nothing since 2018 that gives me any hope for success.

I think Goodwin has fired whatever shots he has and will be gone by mid-year.

The Swans/Freo games were massive blemishes against him and the team but let's not also forgot we were pretty unlucky not to score wins against the Lions, Cats and even the Tigers earlier in the year. I still have (blind) hope that Goodwin and the team can get things to click this season but he is on his last chance.

[Demon trucker 1,800]

On 1/1/2021 at 9:52 AM, pitmaster said:

Twelve of those behinds were not shots at goal but Hawthorn carrying the ball over to minimise risk and regain possession I seem to remember. Smart tactically and no longer allowed.

They changed the rule after that grand final, next year they did not make finals, was it premiership hangover? Ot did the rule change totally stuff up thire game plan, and it took rhem three seasons for them, to work out a totally different game plan. I believe the 6 6 6 rule was a really bad rule change for our game plan, so hopefully Goodwin has worked a new game plan, that will take us back to 2018.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

On 12/31/2020 at 1:12 PM, Half forward flank said:

I feel Goodys comment is not entirely correct or if it is Barlett is not doing his job. To say they spoke at length and Barlett only being supportive sounds odd. Surely Barlett has said, words to the effect. We need and expect results. You are now fully equipped with players and capable coaching staff, we support you, but its time for results.

Yep, wouldn't think Bartlett would make the public comments he did (which heaped the pressure on Goodwin) only to head in to a backroom and tell Goody to ignore it; everything's fine.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,360]

On 1/3/2021 at 2:13 PM, Same Old said:

Call me a glutton for punishment but I watched the freo game last night - Goodwin either had a bad day at the office or, he has no idea. I like to watch games we lose to see where it was lost and where we can improve.... 

This game was lost not only at selection, but game style. If not for inaccurate kicking from freo we should've been at least six goals down at half time. We played a  hard running hand ball game in driving rain ! We were often caught out of position and freo caught us on the rebound and made it look easy...... Can you believe it ? Also, Please remember that we were beaten by a first year coach while we were a team fighting for finals.

I'd like to share your enthusiasm that he is a good coach - lets persevere with him - it's our year, BUT if we are down 2 and 4 at the end of round six next year and that is assuming we beat Freo (ha! ha!) and Hawthorn it will be the SAME OLD !

And I’d love to know who was responsible for playing a 7 foot 8 ruckman at full forward in wild tropical conditions for a return of 3 possessions, 1 mark and 0.0.

We all saw it as an own goal when the teams were announced to play Freo in a season defining game. Why couldn’t the coaching staff?

[binman 41,962]

On 1/3/2021 at 1:57 PM, JimmyGadson said:

Wowsa you've missed out arguably the most important responsibility a coach holds. Gameplan.

Since 2018, Goodwin has been too slow to make changes to an unbelievable one-dimensional game plan which in-turn has seen us select the same side for too long, have the same problems during games for too long and lose games in a similar fashion for too long.

Goodwin is largely responsible for where we are as a club. 

The two losses you speak about can still be linked to the same problem areas we've seen for this entire period I'm speaking about. It's nothing new.

Wowsa?

It goes without saying that developing and implementing game plan is a key responsibility of a senior coach, but I wasn't making a list of the responsibilities of a coach. I was responding to a comment about about our appalling performance in the two games in cairns.

Sure Goody has to bear some responsibility for preparation and poor selection etc but those losses were down to the players, pure and simple. The game plan was barely a factor. In the Freo game the players were simply to too lazy to stop Freo's spread, just as they were against the dogs. Against the Swans, not for the first time they played stupid football in the wet and windy conditions. Is that on Goody?

In both games they were clearly not switched on. Of course Goody plays a role in getting them ready but these guys are professional footballers playing at the elite level. Being ready to play is ultimately their responsibility.  An AFL player expecting the coach to take responsibility for them being ready is amateursville.

And JG, without wanting to open a post Omac argument front, it is just nonsense to suggest Goody has  been slow to make changes to the game plan since 2018. The fundamentals haven't changed (contest out, win the ball at the contest, pressure) but our game plan has changed quite markedly over the 2019 and 2020 seasons. I'm surprised you think otherwise.

In my view the players have really struggled with the evident change in game plan and this was big factor in our poor 2020 season. 

And arguing we have selected the same side for too long equally nonsensical, given it is palpably untrue. 

I mean in 2019 injury made this impossible and i don't think we once had the same team run out. I'm pretty sure we had the most changes of any club in 2019.

This season injury was not an issue and from the get go goody elected to chop and change players, positions, set ups and structures and continued to do so all season (eg selecting Preuss to play as a forward in Cairns). Indeed i was critical of his fluid approach to selection all year and would have loved it if he 'selected the same side' week in, week out and kept players in the consistent positions.   

And to say Goodwin is largely responsible for where we are as a club? Wowsa.  Sure he bears his share of responsibility but largely responsible? Please. By that logic Hardwick is largely responsible for the tiger's success. And Clarkson - for both the success of the hawks and the more recent failure. 

In the book I referenced previously in this thread - the Captain Class - its author, Sam Walker, set out to identify the greatest sports teams of all time and answer the question as to what makes a great team? He devised a formula, then applied it to tens of thousands of teams from different sports leagues all over the world, going back to the 1850s.

He ended up with a list of the 16 greatest teams ever, what he refers to as tier one, and 106 tier two teams who were close. There are two Australian teams in tier one: the 1993 -2000 Women's hockey team and the Collingwood 1927-30 VFL team.

In the book he specifically addresses the role of the coach and the question of how big a factor they are in making a team great. His answer, based on more than decade of research and hundreds of interviews, was not a very big factor at all and certainly not as influential as most would assume. He noted that whilst of course coaches play an important role, the biggest factor in teams success is it players and in particular inspirational leaders.  

In terms of the ability of the coaches for his tier one and tier two teams (so in his considered opinion the 131 greatest sports teams of all time) he had this to say in an interview:

"I never imagined I’d be saying this, but the evidence was remarkably clear. The coaches of these elite teams were all over the map. Some were successful, inspirational, or tactically brilliant, but others were decidedly not. Most had unremarkable records before (and after) they took over these exceptional teams, or had little to no coaching experience. Several teams even changed coaches.

It’s not that coaches are irrelevant – far from it. But even the most revered ones – Vince Lombardi, Alex Ferguson, Bill Belichick and Phil Jackson – achieved their best results in partnership with a captain who didn’t always do what he was told'.

In terms of my comment that once the game starts it is 95%, maybe more, on the players, this quote from Alex Ferguson (soccer's Vince Lombardi) makes my point well:

“As hard as I worked on my own leadership skills, and as much as I tried to influence every aspect of United’s success on the field, at kickoff on match day things moved beyond my control.”

Edited January 4, 2021 by binman

[bing181 8,926]

Great post Binman.

You see similar evidence when looking at changing coaches mid-season. After all, if it's all down to the coach, or even mostly down to the coach, changing the head coach of a losing team mid-season should see things pick up. Not so it seems. This from a study of sacking coaches mid-season in the Spanish soccer league:

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

[bing181 8,926]

And just to add ... no accident that the one area of our game where we're consistently doing well is in the backline - where we have both experience and in May and Lever, leadership.

[binman 41,962]

26 minutes ago, bing181 said:

And just to add ... no accident that the one area of our game where we're consistently doing well is in the backline - where we have both experience and in May and Lever, leadership.

Yep, particularly May. He was awesome this year. Most of all because of his incredible leadership, desire and a hatred of losing. A team man. 

In some respects his season reinforced to me how much we have lacked that sort of leadership over the years.  Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh on Jones but could argue you need to go back to neita for that level of leadership.

I reckon Maxy is getting there and , viney too. So to have three such leaders in this current team is a real positive. 

[Dr. Gonzo 23,704]

58 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, particularly May. He was awesome this year. Most of all because of his incredible leadership, desire and a hatred of losing. A team man. 

In some respects his season reinforced to me how much we have lacked that sort of leadership over the years.  Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh on Jones but could argue you need to go back to neita for that level of leadership.

I reckon Maxy is getting there and , viney too. So to have three such leaders in this current team is a real positive. 

May is a level above them. Viney has the mentality but not the communication/people skills, Maxy has the communication/people skills but not the mentality.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,704]

1 hour ago, bing181 said:

Great post Binman.

You see similar evidence when looking at changing coaches mid-season. After all, if it's all down to the coach, or even mostly down to the coach, changing the head coach of a losing team mid-season should see things pick up. Not so it seems. This from a study of sacking coaches mid-season in the Spanish soccer league:

"The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236043349_Coach_Mid-Season_Replacement_and_Team_Performance_in_Professional_Soccer

Without having read the paper I wonder whether the author has accounted for other factors such as a new coach clearing out experienced players, implementing a new game style etc

I'm assuming you've read this, are you able to recall whether these other factors were accounted for or whether it was a pure numbers analysis?

[binman 41,962]

23 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

May is a level above them. Viney has the mentality but not the communication/people skills, Maxy has the communication/people skills but not the mentality.

Yep, I think you're right. 

[nosoupforme 3,085]

On 1/3/2021 at 2:24 PM, Dr. Gonzo said:

The Swans/Freo games were massive blemishes against him and the team but let's not also forgot we were pretty unlucky not to score wins against the Lions, Cats and even the Tigers earlier in the year. I still have (blind) hope that Goodwin and the team can get things to click this season but he is on his last chance.

Yes he certainly is on his  last chance, however the Cairns game against the Swans didn't favour us with the transportation of bus and plane  on the day as we know.  

I just can't understand why we were not given the time to prepare in Cairns and acclimatise prior.

[old dee 23,492]

1 hour ago, nosoupforme said:

Yes he certainly is on his  last chance, however the Cairns game against the Swans didn't favour us with the transportation of bus and plane  on the day as we know.  

I just can't understand why we were not given the time to prepare in Cairns and acclimatise prior.

Money, the AFL prioritised that above the effect on the MFC players.

[Lucifers Hero 38,982]

38 minutes ago, old dee said:

Money, the AFL prioritised that above the effect on the MFC players.

Money influenced mfc as well.  We didn't need to play in Alice just a few days before Cairns, but there was $500m at stake.  We chose the money.  Had we played the game in SE Qld it would be a whole different story:  not sure we would have beaten Sydney, just that we wouldn't be lamenting the travel schedule.

I think we lost the Syd game because we didn't play to the conditions.  Sydney's research and preparation appeared better than ours:  They defended at all costs when we had the wind (1st qtr) and attacked like there was no tomorrow when they had the wind (2nd qtr).  Game over at half time with the score:  7.2 vs 2.4.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero