2 hours ago, Kent said:

you forgot an esteemed Psychiatrist to fix the mentals

May I suggest Dr Freud for a bad case of finals envy.

2 hours ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

I agree with all of that and I'm not trying to suggest that the players that we're getting rid of make our best 22 any better, the point I've been trying to make is that the club is moving around a lot more pieces than usual this time of year and it seems a high price to pay for helping squeeze in 32 year old wingers. I just cannot recall that many players being linked with moves away from our club. Of course not all are going to be let go, but a fair few of these rumours seem fairly legitimate.

When the bottom falls out of your club it can cause a whole number of problems. What happens if we run into a period of injuries? Where's the pressure coming for spots? All the players I mentioned have had multiple game spells in the side so they're not all plodders. The good teams seem to have an abundance of decent depth players ready to step up, and sure a Mitch Brown and Oscar Baker would get pushed back as depth, but I'd be hesitant in losing a lot of these guys to get 1 good year out of an Isaac Smith.

Look that's fair, but even losing those players, we have depth, both existing and developing.

Petty, Brown, Hore, Smith as talls. Plus we are discussing whether we can actually play Brown, Weid and Jackson in the same team.

Sparrow, Lockhart, Baker, Bedford, as smalls. 

(Note I've listed players who didnt play in round 22 and Baker and Brown who get puahed out: you could easily swap fringe players to decide who is depth).

That's 30 players.

 

This year Brisbane used 36 players, but their bottom 8 only played 12 games between them. 

Collingwood used 40, but their bottom 10 played 15.

Geelong used 34, their bottom 5 played 10.

PA used only 30. Their bottom 4 played 20.

Richmomd played 33. Their bottom 2 played 3, their bottom 3 played 9.

St Kilda used 34, their bottom 6 played 8.

 

We played 36 and our bottom 6 played 20.

 

Depth doesnt need to go beyond 26 players, if you have a solid 22. Stretch to 30 players when rotating some development or some fringe players. Premierships are won by stable best 22s. If many more are needed we either wont have the talent or we'll be too injured to win a flag anyway.

Trading out 8 depth players for 3 best 22 players will improve us immensely. We just want them to be players 5-15 if possible, not players 15-22.

I did the list turnover numbers a few years ago.  The average list turnover was around 10 or 11 and the minimum was around 8.  That's what we should be expecting this year, especially if lists are reduced.

2019 Retirements and Delists

https://www.draftguru.com.au/years/2019/retirements-delistings

141/18 = 7.8

Free Agents and Trades

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_AFL_draft

10 + 26 = 36/18 = 2

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Pollyanna

22 hours ago, Nasher said:

If we gave Smith a three year contract, he contributed strongly for a flag push for two seasons and had one season of pension padding, that is money extremely well spent in my eyes.

flag push? geez, how about we make the finals first 

43 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

flag push? geez, how about we make the finals first 

You don’t want to make finals just to say you made it there, you’re there to win the flag.

45 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

flag push? geez, how about we make the finals first 

Quite right Dr.

This team,in my opinion, is a long long way off a GF

Everything will have to go right for us to even get close

Players have to play above themeselves, develop markedly and gain some mental toughness

I just hope it happens by magic

2 hours ago, deanox said:

Look that's fair, but even losing those players, we have depth, both existing and developing.

Petty, Brown, Hore, Smith as talls. Plus we are discussing whether we can actually play Brown, Weid and Jackson in the same team.

Sparrow, Lockhart, Baker, Bedford, as smalls. 

(Note I've listed players who didnt play in round 22 and Baker and Brown who get puahed out: you could easily swap fringe players to decide who is depth).

That's 30 players.

 

This year Brisbane used 36 players, but their bottom 8 only played 12 games between them. 

Collingwood used 40, but their bottom 10 played 15.

Geelong used 34, their bottom 5 played 10.

PA used only 30. Their bottom 4 played 20.

Richmomd played 33. Their bottom 2 played 3, their bottom 3 played 9.

St Kilda used 34, their bottom 6 played 8.

 

We played 36 and our bottom 6 played 20.

 

Depth doesnt need to go beyond 26 players, if you have a solid 22. Stretch to 30 players when rotating some development or some fringe players. Premierships are won by stable best 22s. If many more are needed we either wont have the talent or we'll be too injured to win a flag anyway.

Trading out 8 depth players for 3 best 22 players will improve us immensely. We just want them to be players 5-15 if possible, not players 15-22.

Yep those are all fair points, but it's playing a dangerous game hoping we don't get injuries next year and can play close to our best 22 each week. We were either lucky or extremely well managed with our injury list this year and still underperformed massively given the talent on our list. Bringing in Brown who has had recent injury issues, a 32 year old Smith and relying on the bodies of Petty, Jones being right etc. at the expense of not amazing but serviceable players seems a little worrisome imo. No doubt a stable 22 is the key to a successful season, however Richmond at one point were missing all of Lynch, Prestia, Edwards, Houli, Cotchin and still held their season together because decent role players were able to fill the void. If we were to lose players of that quality mid season on top of the losses of decent depth players for bringing Smith, Brown then we have little to no hope.

1 hour ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

Yep those are all fair points, but it's playing a dangerous game hoping we don't get injuries next year and can play close to our best 22 each week. We were either lucky or extremely well managed with our injury list this year and still underperformed massively given the talent on our list. Bringing in Brown who has had recent injury issues, a 32 year old Smith and relying on the bodies of Petty, Jones being right etc. at the expense of not amazing but serviceable players seems a little worrisome imo. No doubt a stable 22 is the key to a successful season, however Richmond at one point were missing all of Lynch, Prestia, Edwards, Houli, Cotchin and still held their season together because decent role players were able to fill the void. If we were to lose players of that quality mid season on top of the losses of decent depth players for bringing Smith, Brown then we have little to no hope.

So what is an alternative to bringing in Smith and Brown?

Keeping more of OMac, Hannan, ANB, Preuss, Bedford etc. (i.e. the players who were in-and-out of the side this year)? You describe them as "decent depth" - are they all? And are we going to get where we want to go by retaining them and not chasing players who could make our best 22 better?

Or bringing in Phillips instead of Smith, for example?

In the former, how does that help us? We're just continually trying to plug holes in our best 22 with players who aren't stepping up.

In the latter, there's no difference - Phillips takes the spot on the list Smith would take (bear in mind we have to trade for him), and we still have to move on someone else.

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

So what is an alternative to bringing in Smith and Brown?

Keeping more of OMac, Hannan, ANB, Preuss, Bedford etc. (i.e. the players who were in-and-out of the side this year)? You describe them as "decent depth" - are they all? And are we going to get where we want to go by retaining them and not chasing players who could make our best 22 better?

Or bringing in Phillips instead of Smith, for example?

In the former, how does that help us? We're just continually trying to plug holes in our best 22 with players who aren't stepping up.

In the latter, there's no difference - Phillips takes the spot on the list Smith would take (bear in mind we have to trade for him), and we still have to move on someone else.

I worry about moving on a lot of these players (not all as I have said previously) to help bring in someone with 1-2 years of footy left! Who knows how his body is going to hold up at that age. Yes if we went for Phillips we have to move players on, but you're buying the service of someone who you know you're going to get a decent 5-6 years out of rather than 1-2 Smith might bring. My point is is that if you're going to have that much list turnover on then I'd want a far greater return than Isaac Smith and Ben Brown. You can have your say on all of those players and I'm sure the jury is out on most of them, but it looks like the bottom of the club is falling out at the expense of recruiting someone to plug a gap very temporarily. Our list just isnt at the stage where we can afford to make those sorts of moves. 

 

10 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

I worry about moving on a lot of these players (not all as I have said previously) to help bring in someone with 1-2 years of footy left! Who knows how his body is going to hold up at that age. Yes if we went for Phillips we have to move players on, but you're buying the service of someone who you know you're going to get a decent 5-6 years out of rather than 1-2 Smith might bring. My point is is that if you're going to have that much list turnover on then I'd want a far greater return than Isaac Smith and Ben Brown. You can have your say on all of those players and I'm sure the jury is out on most of them, but it looks like the bottom of the club is falling out at the expense of recruiting someone to plug a gap very temporarily. Our list just isnt at the stage where we can afford to make those sorts of moves. 

 

We'll be moving on 10 or so players and 4 have already gone - the Wagner brothers, Dunkley and Bennell.  Bank on another 6 or so going and some of them will be the players you've listed such as OMac, Hannan, ANB, Preuss, Bedford etc.  

There will likely be some list reduction.

The replacements will be a mix of experienced players from other clubs through trades and DFA, and draftees - with a focus on the former.  Our NQRs will be replaced with players who we hope more fit for purpose.  It's just standard operating procedure.

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Pollyanna

1 minute ago, Pollyanna said:

We'll be moving on 10 or so players and 4 have already gone - the Wagner brothers, Dunkley and Bennell.  Bank on another 6 or so going and some of them will be the players you've listed such as OMac, Hannan, ANB, Preuss, Bedford etc.  

There will likely be some list reduction.

The replacements will be a mix of experienced players from other clubs through trades and DFA, and draftees - with a focus on the former.  Our NQRs will be replaced with players who we hope more fit for purpose.  It's just standard operating procedure.

I sure hope so because whether you love them or hate them, most of those gone or going have played a sizeable amount of games for the club, even beyond the NQR's - Jetta ,TMac, possibly even Jones. Whatever the case is, I really hope the club has more of a plan other than the two we're linked to, because we're no certainties to get either at this point !

6 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

I sure hope so because whether you love them or hate them, most of those gone or going have played a sizeable amount of games for the club, even beyond the NQR's - Jetta ,TMac, possibly even Jones. Whatever the case is, I really hope the club has more of a plan other than the two we're linked to, because we're no certainties to get either at this point !

Dunkley, C. Wagner, KK - 0
J Wagner - 2
Preuss - 3
Bennell - 5
Jetta - 6
ANB, Oscar - 7
Jones - 8
Hannan, T Mc - 9

We had 18 guys play 10 or more games, plus Rivers and Jackson play 9 and 6.

If we only recruited 18 year olds it wouldn't be wise, but I think as long as we balance the draftees with some mature bodies either through trades, delisted picks or mature age pick ups we'll be fine. At this stage we aren't trading out anyone in our best 20.

3 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

You don’t want to make finals just to say you made it there, you’re there to win the flag.

Yeah thats true. But we're nowhere near flag contention. we're more likely to finish bottom 4 than top 4 next season

21 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

I sure hope so because whether you love them or hate them, most of those gone or going have played a sizeable amount of games for the club, even beyond the NQR's - Jetta ,TMac, possibly even Jones. Whatever the case is, I really hope the club has more of a plan other than the two we're linked to, because we're no certainties to get either at this point !

I'm pretty sure there's a plan, Mahoney has been doing this for a while now.

We might pick up Hind to replace one of those small forwards and someone like McKernan or Daw as DFA for emergency ruck coverage in place of Preuss.  I think there will be plenty of experienced fringe and depth options if list sizes are reduced.

23 hours ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

Richmond recruited 3 walk up starters to their best 22 in Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy in the 2016 offseason (more than just role players)

..and we are looking at Smith and Brown among others.

We may yet get multiple best 22 recruits which, by knock on effect, will improve that critical bottom few on our list.

I don't think it's too far fetched to say our premiership window is opening. Our age/games played profile suggests we're starting to get closer.

The alternative views would be that we're a couple more years away (with Max and May past their best) or we should be rebuilding.

It's clear we were aiming to be a little further along at this point, but with a few adjustments, particularly in our forward half, we'll be a shot at going deep into finals, again.

I’m hoping to keep TMac And Jetta  and add Phillips, Brown and Smith. That would be a win for mine 

8 minutes ago, Cheesy D. Pun said:

..and we are looking at Smith and Brown among others.

We may yet get multiple best 22 recruits which, by knock on effect, will improve that critical bottom few on our list.

I don't think it's too far fetched to say our premiership window is opening. Our age/games played profile suggests we're starting to get closer.

The alternative views would be that we're a couple more years away (with Max and May past their best) or we should be rebuilding.

It's clear we were aiming to be a little further along at this point, but with a few adjustments, particularly in our forward half, we'll be a shot at going deep into finals, again.

IMO the window is open for 5+ years and we're just coming into our prime.  We were still in the youngest half of lists this year.  It doesn't need to end when Max and May decline - by then Jackson can be the new Nick Nat and Petty might be Harris Andrews.

I'm going full Brendan Gale - we'll win at least one flag in the next 5 years.

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Pollyanna

1 minute ago, Pollyanna said:

IMO the window is open for 5+ years and we're just coming into our prime.  We were still in the youngest half of lists this year.  It doesn't need to end when Max and May decline - by then Jackson can be the new Nick Nat and Petty might be Harris Andrews.

That's a massive assumption to make. This list looks to really be on the brink if we cant taste some resounding success in the very next year or two, not just a finals cameo or two. Players like May and Gawn will be on the way down, higher profile players - Oliver, Trac, Brayshaw will be nearing free agency and ends of their contracts. The only benefit I see to Smith is he makes us immediately better next year and we can line up a better replacement given we're back into the finals. Then again, why Smith (besides not trading for) when you could have Phillips or heck, even Polec for this 5+ year window you're talking about.

16 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

That's a massive assumption to make. This list looks to really be on the brink if we cant taste some resounding success in the very next year or two, not just a finals cameo or two. Players like May and Gawn will be on the way down, higher profile players - Oliver, Trac, Brayshaw will be nearing free agency and ends of their contracts. The only benefit I see to Smith is he makes us immediately better next year and we can line up a better replacement given we're back into the finals. Then again, why Smith (besides not trading for) when you could have Phillips or heck, even Polec for this 5+ year window you're talking about.

Look I'm Pollyanna and there are a 1000 Henny Pennys.

Because the next 2 years are part of those 5 years - we need to be playing finals next year.  If we are and regularly contending then those FAs will re-sign and we'll be able to sign other teams  FAs because we'll be an attractive destination e.g. go well next year and Zac Merrett may come across.

I think we've got the oar in the water for Smith and Phillips - Smith is a better player and Phillips is younger.

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Pollyanna

33 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

IMO the window is open for 5+ years and we're just coming into our prime.  We were still in the youngest half of lists this year.  It doesn't need to end when Max and May decline - by then Jackson can be the new Nick Nat and Petty might be Harris Andrews.

I'm going full Brendan Gale - we'll win at least one flag in the next 5 years.

Why not! 

21 hours ago, Skuit said:

Count me in too. I've outlined why I think we're on the verge of contention a few times before so I won't go over it all again, but the basic premise is a couple of disrupted seasons and ongoing immaturity have led us to perform below capabilities and now we face a changing of the guard from old leadership to new.

How quickly we transition from Jones, TMac, Jetta and Melksham e.g. to a Petracca and Oliver-driven team will determine how quickly we get there, and having another able-bodied senior best-22 is an important factor as well as plugging a wing for a year or two. Throw in a KPF of Brown's quality and some improved coaching ranks and the recipe is right. 

Improved coaching ranks, as you have suggested, are vital to our success. IMO, we have the talent detonators, not the inspiration and the determined courage to win every ball on our terms. Fitness first, then skills, skills, skills to build something creative on all lines of the footy field. The coming year means our good recruiting for 2020 is one year more experienced and deeper, and there must be widespread realisations in team thinking that our performances this year were not enough. 

2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Improved coaching ranks, as you have suggested, are vital to our success. IMO, we have the talent detonators, not the inspiration and the determined courage to win every ball on our terms. Fitness first, then skills, skills, skills to build something creative on all lines of the footy field. The coming year means our good recruiting for 2020 is one year more experienced and deeper, and there must be widespread realisations in team thinking that our performances this year were not enough. 

I don't get how people can honestly judge a coach to be the difference between success or failure. They could be but how are people so sure this is the case. What's the evidence? Is it in the result?

Richmond 'failed' 7 times under Hardwick. He was an awful coach according to Richmond supporter forums. He should have been sacked according to the armchair experts.

There is no silver bullet in creating a successful football team. No one coach or player can drive success without a hell of a lot of other things being right.

Once you've got all of those things in place, you've then got to compete with 17 other organisations who are likely trying to do very similar things with differing resources.

And then there's luck. No team has ever won a premiership without it.

Edited October 19, 20204 yr by Cheesy D. Pun

9 hours ago, Dr.D said:

flag push? geez, how about we make the finals first 

Richmond in 2017 had finished 13th in 2016.

Port finished 10th in 2019 and just won the minor premiership, narrowly missing a Grand Final birth.

Brisbane finished 2nd in 2019 after finishing 15th in 2018.

Essentially, you're saying, let's not aim too high. Let's just make finals. How about no, Doc?

We are in our premiership windows. Top 4 should be the expectation next year. And I'm confident we can meet it.

I wonder if Smith is waiting for the GF to finish, before he nominates Geelong. He’s taking his time to decide (which is his right to).