Game plans, tactics and all that jazz

[tiers 2,836]

The main requirements to success are to have a full list with alternatives and back ups, no obvious weaknesses that can be exploited and a role for each player within a solid game plan.

That was our formula last year and should be a winning formula this year. So far as I can tell there is no other team that can satisfy these three requirements.

GO GOODY GO DEES

[Drop Dee 21]

I just recently found this on youtube, not sure if this has been posted before, but it's a well put together and a thoroughly enjoyable watch so thought I'd share it... enjoy.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

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Edited March 7, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[jnrmac 20,065]

On 2/17/2022 at 3:34 PM, Axis of Bob said:

When there are many players around the footy it is really difficult to score, especially if both teams are committed to defending. In the GF, this was the case for 3 quarters of football.

We didn't start scoring in the third quarter because we started playing attacking football, we ground 3 tough goals that quarter (the Harmes pass to Fritsch from a wing stoppage, the Brayshaw mark after we turned over the Daniel kick, and the Petracca boundary goal). These weren't kamikaze attacking plays but rather just good tough goals from contests or turnovers. The reason we scored so heavily that quarter was because we kicked 4 more goals directly from centre bounces, which is the only time where there is space all over the field to attack. Then, in the last quarter, only one team was committed to defending (us) whilst the other was chasing some quick goals from behind .... that's why it became a bloodbath.

Our style smothered teams and this allowed our best players to win us games. I'd say that any attempt to be more attacking this year will be more focused on making our forward line function better than it will be on sacrificing our ability to defend. 

We did kick 4 g 5 b in the 1st qtr don't forget when the heat was at its highest.

[jnrmac 20,065]

On 2/18/2022 at 8:25 PM, I think OF Demons said:

I just recently found this on youtube, not sure if this has been posted before, but it's a well put together and a thoroughly enjoyable watch so thought I'd share it... enjoy.

Much easier to watch if you play it at 1.75X speed

[Watson11 2,240]

Really good article on abc.

AFL 2022 preview

This graph is why dogs may struggle this year and won’t win a flag until they sort it out.  Their defence is hopeless one on one.  Every team should be trying to move the ball inside 50 as quickly as possible. Last year, teams generally didn’t move it quickly enough against the dogs, but those who did (Richmond, Essendon, us) sliced them up.
 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

28 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Really good article on abc.

AFL 2022 preview

This graph is why dogs may struggle this year and won’t win a flag until they sort it out.  Their defence is hopeless one on one.  Every team should be trying to move the ball inside 50 as quickly as possible. Last year, teams generally didn’t move it quickly enough against the dogs, but those who did (Richmond, Essendon, us) sliced them up.
 

 

Thanks for bringing this to our attention!

[640MD 3,376]

Ok   help me please.   I did watch,

In the second after the dogs kicked 7 or 8 goals,   from Bont's goal or thereabouts   I thought the game changed and we  were more "hard at it"  and I thought the second half of that quarter we played on our terms and were the better side.

Can any of you readers explain just what happened please    thanks in anticipation

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

Just a gentle reminder for some, not to get too caught up in form, or what it means that we look 'flat' for the first 2 months of this season.

 

This image would look a bit different, if you played right up until a Grand Final the year before and had a delayed preseason due to general all around awesomeness.

 

Based on this... I wouldn't expect us to hit our straps 'physically' until post the bye.

 

[Watson11 2,240]

Not sure where to put this but I thought I would start a running total of scores conceded from defensive i50s.  In my view it is a good measure of who has game plans that stand up under pressure and who doesn't.  The dogs last year were 14th in this stat, and fell apart in the GF.  So far the sample is too small to really provide much insight but I will update every few weeks.  We have started this year where we left off last year, which without Lever and Petty is a great effort.

 

[deelusions from afar 1,810]

10 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Not sure where to put this but I thought I would start a running total of scores conceded from defensive i50s.  In my view it is a good measure of who has game plans that stand up under pressure and who doesn't.  The dogs last year were 14th in this stat, and fell apart in the GF.  So far the sample is too small to really provide much insight but I will update every few weeks.  We have started this year where we left off last year, which without Lever and Petty is a great effort.

 

Thanks for this.  It's an interesting stat and one that dees supporters are very aware of as we smashed the record last year.  But I don't remember hearing people talk about it much prior to last year?  I hope the bombers stay at that percentage this week and we kick straight!

[whatwhat say what 22,755]

26 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Not sure where to put this but I thought I would start a running total of scores conceded from defensive i50s.  In my view it is a good measure of who has game plans that stand up under pressure and who doesn't.  The dogs last year were 14th in this stat, and fell apart in the GF.  So far the sample is too small to really provide much insight but I will update every few weeks.  We have started this year where we left off last year, which without Lever and Petty is a great effort.

 

great stat and one to keep an eye on - thanks @Watson11

surprised to see sydney so 'high' - their defensive set-up has looked excellent so far in a very small sample size 

[Watson11 2,240]

After a really poor defensive game against Essendon, we have dropped off the top of the best defensive team ladder for 2022.  Last week we conceded scores from 51% of Essendon's entries.  In 2021 only the Collingwood (53%) game was worse with the next poorest being the Crows (43%) game. 

Hawthorn's defence is tracking very well.  If they keep this up they are likely playing finals.  

Carlton continue to be hyped up but don't have a premiership defence yet.

Reminder, the last time a premier was not ranked top 5 in this stat was 1999.

 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

30 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

After a really poor defensive game against Essendon, we have dropped off the top of the best defensive team ladder for 2022.  Last week we conceded scores from 51% of Essendon's entries.  In 2021 only the Collingwood (53%) game was worse with the next poorest being the Crows (43%) game. 

Hawthorn's defence is tracking very well.  If they keep this up they are likely playing finals.  

Carlton continue to be hyped up but don't have a premiership defence yet.

Reminder, the last time a premier was not ranked top 5 in this stat was 1999.

 

Thanks for this but all i can really say is lies, damned lies & statistics. At least these stats are more meaningful than the AFL 'Efficiency Inside 50' percentages that measure shots on goal (including those that fall short or go out of bounds). Why don't they just measure goals scored as a percentage of forward 50 entries? Why should you get the same defensive rating for a point kicked against as a goal kicked against? (I'm not making this point as a positive for Melbourne as our opponents this year have kicked 31.24 which is an accuracy rating of 56.4% compared to the AFL average of 53.5%). Also of course as a minimum surely you need to look at the number of Inside 50s in conjunction with the % scores conceded. I reckon Melbourne would be happy with the 51% against Essendon in conjunction with only conceding 39 Inside 50s. Hawthorn top this table but have conceded 175 Inside 50s to Melbourne's 150. And a sample size of 3 games against varied opponents for all teams I'd say produces a fairly meaningless set of numbers.

OK, the last time a Premier was not ranked in the Top 5 of this stat was 1999. But isn't this all a bit obvious. Wouldn't the Premier usually be in the Top 5 of nearly every category you can come up with?

 

[Jaded No More 68,915]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

After a really poor defensive game against Essendon, we have dropped off the top of the best defensive team ladder for 2022.  Last week we conceded scores from 51% of Essendon's entries.  In 2021 only the Collingwood (53%) game was worse with the next poorest being the Crows (43%) game. 

Hawthorn's defence is tracking very well.  If they keep this up they are likely playing finals.  

Carlton continue to be hyped up but don't have a premiership defence yet.

Reminder, the last time a premier was not ranked top 5 in this stat was 1999.

 

I think it’s pleasing that we won despite conceding more than usual. Particularly as we lost the two games last year. 
 

I also think it’s amazing how tight our defense has remained despite missing 3 key players. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Jaded No More

[binman 42,951]

Great stuff Watson1.

It is a very revealing stat.

No surprise to see Port at the foot of the table as they ate miles off with their intensity and gut running. Major alarm bells.

By the by, on tactics the best thing ive heard on radio or TV, just about ever, is Sanderson on wheatley's show on Thursdays.

Terrific insight and he explains things so clearly and so well.

Highly recommended for anyone interested in tactics and strategy.

[Watson11 2,240]

3 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

OK, the last time a Premier was not ranked in the Top 5 of this stat was 1999. But isn't this all a bit obvious. Wouldn't the Premier usually be in the Top 5 of nearly every category you can come up with?

It depends on their game plan.  In Richmond’s premiership years they ranked 14th, 18th, and 17th for clearances, 6th, 17th, and 13th for contested possessions,  and in 2017 last in disposal efficiency. Hawthorn’s game plan from 2013-2015 was different to Richmond’s and they ranked 2nd, 1st, 1st for disposal efficiency, not last like 2017 Richmond!

Despite different game plans,  all of the premiers have been top 5 in just a small selection of stats:

1. Scores conceded from i50s

2. Post clearance contested possessions 

3. Forward 50 groundballs

4. Score differential from turnovers

So that’s why it’s interesting to track scores conceded from i50s. The other 3 are impossible to find.

 

[monoccular 17,428]

On 4/4/2022 at 10:44 PM, binman said:

Great stuff Watson1.

It is a very revealing stat.

No surprise to see Port at the foot of the table as they ate miles off with their intensity and gut running. Major alarm bells.

By the by, on tactics the best thing ive heard on radio or TV, just about ever, is Sanderson on wheatley's show on Thursdays.

Terrific insight and he explains things so clearly and so well.

Highly recommended for anyone interested in tactics and strategy.

binman - is Wheatley Thursday show on TV or radio?  Which station / Chanel and what time?

[binman 42,951]

1 minute ago, monoccular said:

binman - is Wheatley Thursday show on TV or radio?  Which station / Chanel and what time?

Sorry, it's sen radio.

I used to quite like Wheatley, but he [censored] me a bit now.

Best way to listen to him is via podcast.

If you download the sen app you can navigate to rhe recordings of his shows via the podcast button at the bottom. Or go to the sen website.

His show is sliced up into the various segments, so you can just listen to what is of interest.

A bonus is the ads are cut out - I find tbe ads on sen make it almost unlistenable.

[rpfc 28,426]

On 4/4/2022 at 7:03 PM, Sydney_Demon said:

Thanks for this but all i can really say is lies, damned lies & statistics. At least these stats are more meaningful than the AFL 'Efficiency Inside 50' percentages that measure shots on goal (including those that fall short or go out of bounds). Why don't they just measure goals scored as a percentage of forward 50 entries? Why should you get the same defensive rating for a point kicked against as a goal kicked against? (I'm not making this point as a positive for Melbourne as our opponents this year have kicked 31.24 which is an accuracy rating of 56.4% compared to the AFL average of 53.5%). Also of course as a minimum surely you need to look at the number of Inside 50s in conjunction with the % scores conceded. I reckon Melbourne would be happy with the 51% against Essendon in conjunction with only conceding 39 Inside 50s. Hawthorn top this table but have conceded 175 Inside 50s to Melbourne's 150. And a sample size of 3 games against varied opponents for all teams I'd say produces a fairly meaningless set of numbers.

OK, the last time a Premier was not ranked in the Top 5 of this stat was 1999. But isn't this all a bit obvious. Wouldn't the Premier usually be in the Top 5 of nearly every category you can come up with?

 

This is an amazing post; start with an anti stats cliche and then through analysis convince the reader of the merit of the particular stat that you have questioned, even ridiculing it as obvious…

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

 I'm half a pint through a fairly strong beer... and rate my post, so much, I thought I'd post it here.

Happy to debate...

As per language used now when observing other matches, and how it informs our lens of how we see Goodwin and Co's philosophy.

Re: 'Goalfests'... (any team that allows any other team to score over hmmmm 80?)

Isn't there a massive shift in the supporters understanding and THUS the language used by us, because we now have a lens of what 'works' to win football matches consistently. It's also not just our - defense (back 6), running parallel to the strength of our 'defence' is still the system - which I still count as a a Goodwin version of gengenpressing. #goodwinpressing

ps... does anyone have any data on how many left foot kicks Gus does per match vs right?

pps... do you say data or data?

Edited April 10, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[DEE fence 5,015]

Two Rucks seems to be the key now days, Saints have two, smash Hawks who lost McEvoy and had one ruck. Dogs went in without a spare, got touched up by us. I haven't looked across all games but just watching the Dees and a couple of other matches I really feel like the game has turned a bit and the so called demise of the ruck was premature. Also kudos to us for our use of wingers as well, we are trend setters. 'Pat's self on back for something he had nothing to do with'.

And dare I say it, but the one thing the rules committee got right. 

[rpfc 28,426]

4 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

 I'm half a pint through a fairly strong beer... and rate my post, so much, I thought I'd post it here.

Happy to debate...

As per language used now when observing other matches, and how it informs our lens of how we see Goodwin and Co's philosophy.

Re: 'Goalfests'... (any team that allows any other team to score over hmmmm 80?)

Isn't there a massive shift in the supporters understanding and THUS the language used by us, because we now have a lens of what 'works' to win football matches consistently. It's also not just our - defense (back 6), running parallel to the strength of our 'defence' is still the system - which I still count as a a Goodwin version of gengenpressing. #goodwinpressing

ps... does anyone have any data on how many left foot kicks Gus does per match vs right?

pps... do you say data or data?

You are halfway through ‘one’ beer?

[layzie 33,801]

Fantastic chart that one with % of conceded i50s. If there's just one thing I'd like to see it's how many scores are goals so you can compare the pair. 

[Watson11 2,240]

Added % goals conceded and number of i50s conceded.  Some teams are conceding lots of i50s, and lots of scores from them.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Watson11