Jump to content

Beware of Pick 6!!!

The Oracle
The Oracle
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

Posted

There’s a lot of talk round here that Melbourne should split its pick 3 with the GWS Giants and take pick 6 and something else but I’m suspicious of this because in car dealing language, the pick is a lemon ?!

Check out the chart from the AFL Draft Guru site

Historically, players who have been selected at 3 have played an average of 132 games compared with 57 for pick 6. At pick 7, the average is almost more than double at 133 games. 

Pick 6 is jinxed - we tell GWS no to that pick. 

https://www.draftguru.com.au/

6E343E09-7CA6-45A2-B461-680909177FF7.jpeg

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Haha 3
    • Shocked 1
     
      On 19/10/2019 at 00:17, The Oracle said:

    There’s a lot of talk round here that Melbourne should split its pick 3 with the GWS Giants and take pick 6 and something else but I’m suspicious of this because in car dealing language, the pick is a lemon ?!

    Check out the chart from the AFL Draft Guru site

    Historically, players who have been selected at 3 have played an average of 132 games compared with 57 for pick 6. At pick 7, the average is almost more than double at 133 games. 

    Pick 6 is jinxed - we tell GWS no to that pick. 

    https://www.draftguru.com.au/

    6E343E09-7CA6-45A2-B461-680909177FF7.jpeg

    Now that changes everything.

    Thanks for this invaluable information.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
     

    Pick 6 will become pick 7 when GWS swoop on Green though.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     
      On 19/10/2019 at 01:32, ben russell said:

    Pick 6 will become pick 7 when GWS swoop on Green though.

    This. And pick 7 is a great pick!

  • Quote

     I noticed that Pick 4 has been a bit of a dud.

    The average is most likely influenced by us picking Morton and Toumpas at pick 4 and completely [censored] the average up.

  • Quote
    • Haha 4

    Pretty low averages for all the top tens.

  • Quote
      On 19/10/2019 at 01:45, BAMF said:

     I noticed that Pick 4 has been a bit of a dud.

    The average is most likely influenced by us picking Morton and Toumpas at pick 4 and completely [censored] the average up.

    Clarry will be alright.

  • Quote

    So you’re saying pick 6 is due to be a superstar?!?

  • Quote

     

    It has been a long hard road for pick 6 which, after being truly awful through the nineties, has improved over time and even had a couple of good seasons more recently. But clearly we're talking about one of those picks that only ever shows glimpses of their talent and is forever 'one good preseason away' from being a real performer.

    1998 Murray Vance

    1999 Damian Cupido

    2000 Dylan Smith

    2001 Ashley Sampi

    2002 Steven Salopek

    2003 Kepler Bradley

    2004 Tom Williams

    2005  Beau Dowler

    2006 Mitch Thorp

    2007 David Myers 

    2008 Chris Yarran

    2009 Gary Roahn

    2010 Reece Conca

    2011 Chad Wingard

    2012 Jackson Macrae

    2013 Matthew Sharenberg

    2014 Caleb Marchbank

    2015  Aaron Francis

    2016 Sam Petrevski-Seton

    2017 Jaidyn Stephenson

    2018 Ben King

     

  • Quote
      On 19/10/2019 at 07:21, Little Goffy said:

     

    It has been a long hard road for pick 6 which, after being truly awful through the nineties, has improved over time and even had a couple of good seasons more recently. But clearly we're talking about one of those picks that only ever shows glimpses of their talent and is forever 'one good preseason away' from being a real performer.

    1998 Murray Vance

    1999 Damian Cupido

    2000 Dylan Smith

    2001 Ashley Sampi

    2002 Steven Salopek

    2003 Kepler Bradley

    2004 Tom Williams

    2005  Beau Dowler

    2006 Mitch Thorp

    2007 David Myers 

    2008 Chris Yarran

    2009 Gary Roahn

    2010 Reece Conca

    2011 Chad Wingard

    2012 Jackson Macrae

    2013 Matthew Sharenberg

    2014 Caleb Marchbank

    2015  Aaron Francis

    2016 Sam Petrevski-Seton

    2017 Jaidyn Stephenson

    2018 Ben King

     

    Seems to be making a comeback of late.

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • 3 weeks later...

    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • PODCAST: Essendon

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 14th April @ the all new time of 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect another Demons loss at Kardinia Park to the Cats in the Round 04. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

        • Thanks
      • 18 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Fremantle

      The Demons return home to the MCG in search of their first win for the 2025 Premiership season when they take on the Fremantle Dockers on Saturday afternoon. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
      • 55 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • VOTES: Essendon

      Max Gawn leads the Demonland Player of the Year ahead of Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Kade Chandler and Jake Bowey. Your votes please. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1.

        • Thanks
      • 21 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: Essendon

      Despite a spirited third quarter surge, the Demons have slumped to their worst start to a season since 2012, remaining winless and second last on the ladder after a 39-point defeat to Essendon at Adelaide Oval in Gather Round.

        • Vomit
        • Sad
        • Thanks
      • 243 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • GAMEDAY: Essendon

      It’s Game Day, and the Demons are staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start for the first time since 2012 as they take on Essendon at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round. In that forgettable season, Melbourne finally broke their drought by toppling the Bombers. Can lightning strike twice? Will the Dees turn their nightmare start around and breathe life back into 2025?

        • Like
      • 723 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: Essendon

      As the focus of the AFL moves exclusively to South Australia for Gather Round, the question is raised as to what are we going to get from the  Melbourne Football Club this weekend? Will it be a repeat of the slop fest of the last three weeks that have seen the team score a measly 174 points and concede 310 or will a return to the City of Churches and the scene where they performed at their best in 2024 act as a wakeup call and bring them out of their early season reverie?  Or will the sleepy Dees treat their fans to a reenactment of their lazy effort from the first Gather Round of two years ago when they allowed the Bombers to trample all over them on a soggy and wet Adelaide Oval? The two examples from above tell us how fickle form can be in football. Last year, a committed group of players turned up in Adelaide with a businesslike mindset. They had a plan, went in confidently and hard for the football and kicked winning scores against both home teams in a difficult environment for visitors. And they repeated that sort of effort later in the season when they played Essendon at the MCG.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All