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The Ashes - 2019

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I hate to say it but the poms may win this one.  The pitch will be perfect to bat on today. Hopefully the spin will come in to save us.

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I'm sticking to my call of 270 max.  They have to survive the 2nd new ball and if they can do that they then have to handle Lyon throughout.  At some stage they have to try and score runs too. 

Even just losing 1 wicket exposes a new batsman up against a bowling unit which knows how to take advantage.  Totals such as the one they're chasing are rarely reached.  But usually the side batting last would be dealing with a well-worn 5th day wicket. 

If they achieve the total it will be one of the greatest comebacks in Test cricket history (after being dismissed for 67 in their first innings)  And kudos to them if they do so. 

Edited by Macca
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30 minutes ago, Macca said:

But usually the side batting last would be dealing with a well-worn 5th day wicket. 

That's the unknown... they were on a third day wicket yesterday and it didn't look like deteriorating for at least the first two sessions today.

By that time it could be game over for us.

Definitely need one if not two wickets in the first hour

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20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

That's the unknown... they were on a third day wicket yesterday and it didn't look like deteriorating for at least the first two sessions today.

By that time it could be game over for us.

Definitely need one if not two wickets in the first hour

Most people I know are expecting an Aussie victory tonight.  But there again,  not many of them are Demon fans. Nearly all are former cricketers though with a rich knowledge of the game.

I never really expect the footy team to win or to win anything.  So there is no carry over to any other sport and I don't let the MFC affect my life (at all)  Supporter syndrome is confined to the MFC only with me.  But I see it all like a realist would anyway so it's not really MFCSS anyway.  The data means more to me.

But because of the Test side's incredible success rate over the same time period (50+ years) I often expect the cricket side to win.  And we've won 5 world cups in the 50 over version as well as being such a dominent team in Test cricket.

We're not a great team right now but if we unearth 2 or 3 A grade batsmen in the near future,  we soon will be.  England aren't a great team either. 

If the Poms win tonight I will give them great credit rather than pay out on the Aussies. 

There are always doubts but I like playing the percentages.  With the footy team,  the percentages tell us that you can't win with a team that lacks real talent.  It's always about talent  ... the coaching is often overrated.

So Justin Langer as a coach is only as good as the players he works with.  Same deal for footy.

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As for the technical aspect ... the wicket did lose it's venom after lunch yesterday as I forecast it might do. I was just throwing it out there though.  Didn't think I'd get it right!

But just prior to lunch Archer was getting variable bounce and a few flew off the pitch in startling fashion.  But he is a special talent.

The new ball will tell the tale.  Or if we pick up a wicket just prior to taking the new ball.

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That was the wicket ... not sure why Root played across the line to Lyon though.  Loss of concentration? 

 

Edited by Macca
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Drinks. Im pretty confident the game wont last till tea....... Bairstow and Stokes would need a solid 100 run partnership from here and one edge is all its going to take to break it.

They look like brothers from another mother ! :)

173 to win.

 

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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Still a close call. Bairstow could be a pain in the [censored] but could get himself out driving. Stokes is playing slowly.

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Drinks. Im pretty confident the game wont last till tea....... Bairstow and Stokes would need a solid 100 run partnership from here and one edge is all its going to take to break it.

They look like brothers from another mother ! :)

173 to win.

 

Their best chance is to counter-attack with these 2 at the crease. 

And of course if we bowl well to counter,  the wickets should come.  Or at least 1 wicket and that's all we need - 1 wicket to keep changing the balance.

 

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6 minutes ago, Macca said:

Their best chance is to counter-attack with these 2 at the crease. 

And of course if we bowl well to counter,  the wickets should come.  Or at least 1 wicket and that's all we need - 1 wicket to keep changing the balance.

 

Yep spot on. Stokes is the key.

Edit odds now are: England 2.20 Australia 1.67

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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Deary this is now looking like a Dees forth quarter. 

Edited by Monocology
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Did the Poms replace the wicket at lunchtime yesterday? 

One of those drop-in types (road) that the Aussie curators specialise in?

These 2 (Stokes & Bairstow) look super comfortable.  Advantage England. 

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Odds now: England 1.44  Australia 2.75

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59 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

England are now favourite.

Fair enough too.  They have fought gallantly.

Still reckon that if the Aussies get a wicket soon then the pendulum can swing the other way.

Butler & Woakes can bat but Broad,  Archer & Leach aren't great.  Their strength before the series started was identified as their late middle order but that included Moeen Ali (replaced by Leach who bats at no.11)

I still favour the Aussies to win but only just. 

Edited by Macca
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1 minute ago, Macca said:

Fair enough too.  They have fought gallantly.

Still reckon that if the Aussies get a wicket soon then the pendulam can swing the other way.

Woakes can bat but Broad,  Archer & Leach aren't great.  Their strength before the series started was identified as their late middle order but that included Moeen Ali (replaced by Leach who bats at no.11)

I still favour the Aussies to win but only just. 

I think from now it turns into a one day match. 6 wickets 120 odd runs. Butler is the specialist 1 day game run chaser. As England start to sense victory and go for the runs, this is where they can lose a few quick wickets as they let their guard down, Both sides could then sense victory and every run will be crucial, if its not already. I think which ever team wins, will have the wood over the other for the rest of the Series. Will be a very interesting next few hours.

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For heaven’s sake history and the odds are overwhelmingly with us. Don’t panic please.

But gee I am getting rather concerned now that I look at the runs needed and wickets in hand! 😳

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2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I think from now it turns into a one day match. 6 wickets 120 odd runs. Butler is the specialist 1 day game run chaser. As England start to sense victory and go for the runs, this is where they can lose a few quick wickets as they let their guard down, Both sides could then sense victory and every run will be crucial, if its not already. I think which ever team wins, will have the wood over the other for the rest of the Series. Will be a very interesting next few hours.

If we win,  the last 2 Tests become dead rubbers but if they win, it's game on.  But you'd imagine that we'd be shattered if we do lose after bowling them out for 67 in their first innings.  I couldn't see us losing after that happened but here we are with England now favoured to win the match. 

It will be advantage England if they win especially with Archer at their disposal.  What a great sport though Wadda?  The drama that test cricket provides is 2nd to none.   The ebb and flow of the 5 day game is amazing. 

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I'm heading off to watch the battle against the Night King on G of T for the second time.

Never know they may turn the lights on.

Shall I return to hear the sweet song of victory?

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This is going to be dreadful. Just like our footy season.

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5 minutes ago, Macca said:

If we win,  the last 2 Tests become dead rubbers but if they win, it's game on.  But you'd imagine that we'd be shattered if we do lose after bowling them out for 67 in their first innings.  I couldn't see us losing after that happened but here we are with England now favoured to win the match. 

It will be advantage England if they win especially with Archer at their disposal.  What a great sport though Wadda?  The drama that test cricket provides is 2nd to none.   The ebb and flow of the 5 day game is amazing. 

Well thats it Macca and it is a great sport, if not one of the greatest. I dont care that much to be honest because if they win then it keeps the series alive and it would probably go right down to the wire. They may have Archer but we have Smith coming back in. They also have to find a spot for Anderson, so who would they leave out? Many questions yet be answered.

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Needed that wicket!

 

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

 I dont care that much to be honest because if they win then it keeps the series alive and it would probably go right down to the wire.

I don't want the series to stay alive so my care factor for us winning this match is through the roof! 

To be honest If we don't win this test match I will be filthy.  The cat,  walls & tv aren't safe!

 

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