WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - COREY WAGNER

[TheoX 1,222]

26 minutes ago, ManDee said:

You never let up on this Hogan business so neither will I.

Hogan has never kicked 50 goals in a season, he averages 38 goals per completed season.

Drafted 2012,

2013 - not eligible

2014 - No games - injured

2015 - 20 games  as a 20 year old - 44 goals

2016 - 21 games 41 goals

2017 - 10 games 20 goals

2018 - 20 games 47 goals

Hogan has kicked 152 goals, played 71 games. 5 years on list for 71 games 

In the time he has been available to play we have played 112 games Hogan has missed 41 games injured/illness/suspension averaging under 31 goals per season since available. Averages 2.1 goals per game played. On those figures he will never kick 50 goals in season. Yes he is a good player, a superstar he is not. 

Tom MacDonald this year averaged 2.6 goals per game which is better than Hogan has ever done.

Edit:- Coleman medalist 2018 Jack Riewoldt 2.9 goal per game.     Since 2014 Riewoldt has played in 115 games missing none.

Or in the same time that Hogan has kicked 152 goals Riewoldt has kicked 287. Hogan is no superstar.

So basically give him a full season, and he kicks between somewhere 40 and 50 goals like I said.

Edited November 21, 2018 by TheoX

[ManDee 7,395]

9 minutes ago, TheoX said:

So basically give him a full season, and he kicks between somewhere 40 and 50 goals

When did we hold him back? Can he play a full season?

Edit: We gave him 5 full seasons, he wasn't up to it.

NB: Jeff Garlett 2017 averages 2.0 goals per game or 1.8 for his career. If he can get back there is your 40-50 goals.

Edited November 21, 2018 by ManDee

[DeeSpencer 26,672]

13 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

As expected, minimal success, if any.

Thanks for responding though.

Depends on your definition of success. Sam Reid has been a success for the Giants. Useful depth player they very much needed and important culture guy.

I forgot the best one of the bunch recently in Sam Menegola. 

I wouldn't be overly keen on Wagner if we were an older list and didn't have as many list spots because I agree the odds are against him being a long term player. But considering we still have 7 list spots to fill with kids and we had a lot of delistings as well as trading Kent and Tyson it makes sense to get him in. I'll be calling him a success if he helps Casey win games and can come in and provide some cover when needed. 

[The Chazz 4,077]

55 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Depends on your definition of success. Sam Reid has been a success for the Giants. Useful depth player they very much needed and important culture guy.

I forgot the best one of the bunch recently in Sam Menegola. 

I wouldn't be overly keen on Wagner if we were an older list and didn't have as many list spots because I agree the odds are against him being a long term player. But considering we still have 7 list spots to fill with kids and we had a lot of delistings as well as trading Kent and Tyson it makes sense to get him in. I'll be calling him a success if he helps Casey win games and can come in and provide some cover when needed. 

I wouldn't be calling that a success.  That said, if he struggles, which I think he will, then it hasn't been a major failure either.  Hence why I originally said he'd be depth at best.

I agree re. the trading of Tyson and Kent.  We've lost two players that could come in and perform admirably when required, so we're going to be a bit light on in that department this year.  Wagner will clearly fill one of the roles, but I am very doubtful that he will perform at the levels that Kent and Tyson were able to (and that's not a very high benchmark).

My attitude toward this sort of thing is probably a bit harsh, but I don't understand the posters that froth up over pick-ups like Wagner, McKenna, Balic, et al.  There's plenty of posters that do (eg. the OP said they can see Wagner "slotting in well" on the wing.  Please).

[FarNorthernD 5,863]

1 hour ago, ManDee said:

 

Hogan has never kicked 50 goals in a season, he averages 38 goals per completed season.

Drafted 2012,

...............

Tom MacDonald this year averaged 2.6 goals per game which is better than Hogan has ever done.

Edit:- Coleman medalist 2018 Jack Riewoldt 2.9 goal per game.     Since 2014 Riewoldt has played in 115 games missing none.

Or in the same time that Hogan has kicked 152 goals Riewoldt has kicked 287. Hogan is no superstar.

And isn’t the realisation that TMac may turn out to be a more valuable forward than Hogan just mind blowing.

I know that are from the different draft years but I’m guessing there isn’t a recruiter in the land who would have looked at them both as 17 year olds and thought I prefer the uncoordinated kid from country Victoria. 

I appreciate it is an extreme case but it does highlight the unpredictable nature of the draft, particularly for talls 

 

[Demonland 74,425]

 

[Nasher 33,684]

We might as well just delist him now based on Chazz’s appraisal. Obviously has no future.

I understand the position, by the way; the evidence supports his assertion that players who get spat out don’t usually make it. I reject it though. I don’t see how he’s any different to any other ‘mature’ player, such as Michael Barlow, Aaron Vandenberg, Tim Kelly and so forth, who mature later and continue to develop as players in to their 20s and have successful AFL careers. The fact that he’s been on an AFL list before is irrelevant - not ready then doesn’t equal not ready now. 

As a 21 year old recruit, he’s clearly been picked due to his potential for development to be more than just a depth player. I am far more open minded about his prospects.

[old55 23,860]

3 hours ago, The Chazz said:

 

My attitude toward this sort of thing is probably a bit harsh, but I don't understand the posters that froth up over pick-ups like Wagner, McKenna, Balic, et al.  There's plenty of posters that do (eg. the OP said they can see Wagner "slotting in well" on the wing.  Please).

I don't understand why posters are gratuitously negative about players we have had exposure to in our system and have added to our list for free.  The FD see something.

[dazzledavey36 56,318]

1 hour ago, Nasher said:

We might as well just delist him now based on Chazz’s appraisal. Obviously has no future.

I understand the position, by the way; the evidence supports his assertion that players who get spat out don’t usually make it. I reject it though. I don’t see how he’s any different to any other ‘mature’ player, such as Michael Barlow, Aaron Vandenberg, Tim Kelly and so forth, who mature later and continue to develop as players in to their 20s and have successful AFL careers. The fact that he’s been on an AFL list before he’s irrelevant - not ready then doesn’t equal not ready now. 

As a 21 year old recruit, he’s clearly been picked due to his potential for development to be more than just a depth player. I am far more open minded about his prospects.

I feel like this thread will be rebooted come mid year next year.. Might make Chazz look very silly...

Wagner was winning some big midfield numbers for Casey this year, and by the sounds of his interview, he's matured and learnt a lot from his year out from the system.

I can see him making a big contribution for us next year. And if not, no biggie.. got him for absolute [censored] all.

[jackaub 1,402]

20 hours ago, ManDee said:

You never let up on this Hogan business so neither will I.

Hogan has never kicked 50 goals in a season, he averages 38 goals per completed season.

Drafted 2012,

2013 - not eligible

2014 - No games - injured

2015 - 20 games  as a 20 year old - 44 goals

2016 - 21 games 41 goals

2017 - 10 games 20 goals

2018 - 20 games 47 goals

Hogan has kicked 152 goals, played 71 games. 5 years on list for 71 games 

In the time he has been available to play we have played 112 games Hogan has missed 41 games injured/illness/suspension averaging under 31 goals per season since available. Averages 2.1 goals per game played. On those figures he will never kick 50 goals in season. Yes he is a good player, a superstar he is not. 

Tom MacDonald this year averaged 2.6 goals per game which is better than Hogan has ever done.

Edit:- Coleman medalist 2018 Jack Riewoldt 2.9 goal per game.     Since 2014 Riewoldt has played in 115 games missing none.

Or in the same time that Hogan has kicked 152 goals Riewoldt has kicked 287. Hogan is no superstar.

At last some facts and no fake news

Thanks for that

[The Chazz 4,077]

16 hours ago, Nasher said:

We might as well just delist him now based on Chazz’s appraisal. Obviously has no future.

I understand the position, by the way; the evidence supports his assertion that players who get spat out don’t usually make it. I reject it though. I don’t see how he’s any different to any other ‘mature’ player, such as Michael Barlow, Aaron Vandenberg, Tim Kelly and so forth, who mature later and continue to develop as players in to their 20s and have successful AFL careers. The fact that he’s been on an AFL list before is irrelevant - not ready then doesn’t equal not ready now. 

As a 21 year old recruit, he’s clearly been picked due to his potential for development to be more than just a depth player. I am far more open minded about his prospects.

This is just a poor post, in particular the top line.  I have said he will be depth at best, and that if it doesn't work out, it's really cost us nothing so no great loss.  My appraisal was always based around the OP believing he would slot straight on to our wing, which I disagree with.  I strongly believe that for Wagner to play Round 1, it will require a number of injuries to key personnel, as well as some other players currently ahead of him going backwards.

And I ask the question regarding his first time in the AFL system.  North clearly thought he was ready to enter the system when they drafted him, but then they let him go after his first contract.  Why?  Was it attitude?  Did he prove to them he wasn't ready?  If so, they could've re-rookied him like how we did with Jetta.  If he showed potential, they could've extended his contract and let him develop in the two's.  They were happy to move forward without him, so maybe they could see that he just wasn't up to it.

Interestingly, the next lot of players you have listed, Barlow, et al, were never in the system prior to being picked up by Free/Melb/Geel respectively.  So far, there's been only one poster come up with a list of names that have been in the system, dropped out, then worked their way back, and I argue, which you agree with, rarely sees a successful outcome.

I generally try and be open-minded abut these types of pick ups, but they very rarely make it, and find themselves delisted at the end of their new contract.  To take a leaf out of Werridee's book, I don't have either Wagner in my best 22, and have them well down the batting order.

14 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I feel like this thread will be rebooted come mid year next year.. Might make Chazz look very silly...

Wagner was winning some big midfield numbers for Casey this year, and by the sounds of his interview, he's matured and learnt a lot from his year out from the system.

I can see him making a big contribution for us next year. And if not, no biggie.. got him for absolute [censored] all.

I'm more than happy for you to reboot this thread mid year, on the condition you're happy for me to do the same after the Round 1 team is announced showing he hasn't slotted in to that wing position? ?

[DubDee 26,674]

21 hours ago, ManDee said:

You never let up on this Hogan business so neither will I.

Hogan has never kicked 50 goals in a season, he averages 38 goals per completed season.

Drafted 2012,

2013 - not eligible

2014 - No games - injured

2015 - 20 games  as a 20 year old - 44 goals

2016 - 21 games 41 goals

2017 - 10 games 20 goals

2018 - 20 games 47 goals

Hogan has kicked 152 goals, played 71 games. 5 years on list for 71 games 

In the time he has been available to play we have played 112 games Hogan has missed 41 games injured/illness/suspension averaging under 31 goals per season since available. Averages 2.1 goals per game played. On those figures he will never kick 50 goals in season. Yes he is a good player, a superstar he is not. 

Tom MacDonald this year averaged 2.6 goals per game which is better than Hogan has ever done.

Edit:- Coleman medalist 2018 Jack Riewoldt 2.9 goal per game.     Since 2014 Riewoldt has played in 115 games missing none.

Or in the same time that Hogan has kicked 152 goals Riewoldt has kicked 287. Hogan is no superstar.

I agree, we should have played through having cancer and losing his dad and throwing his back out.  how soft

it might make you feel better to down-play Hogan but we have lost an extremely talented player. Our best and most consistent fwd over the past 3 years despite all his off field issues.

and before you say 'move on', I have. but when you say he is not worth 40-50 goals per season you just make yourself look silly 

[ManDee 7,395]

Just now, DubDee said:

I agree, we should have played through having cancer and losing his dad and throwing his back out.  how soft

it might make you feel better to down-play Hogan but we have lost an extremely talented player. Our best and most consistent fwd over the past 3 years despite all his off field issues.

and before you say 'move on', I have. but when you say he is not worth 40-50 goals per season you just make yourself look silly 

You are not reading what I said and are implying things that I didn't say.

My point was that he has been unable for many reasons to play a full season. I place no blame on him for that, it is merely a statement of fact.

Fact: Hogan has missed 41 games out of a possible 112

Hogan is a very talented player that for many reasons has missed many games.

We are in the window for a premiership and I really think we can be better served with a forward line including talls T Mac -Weid- Preuss/Gawn than with Hogan & no Preuss/Gawn. I do not think that Preuss/Gawn will kick as many goals as Hogan but I think the 2 ruckman structure will help the overall team result. That is my opinion. To put it simply I think we will be a more successful side without Hogan than we were with him, only time will tell.

Fact: Hogan kicked 152 goals over 5 seasons averaging 31 per season.

Fact: Hogan missed 41 games.

Opinion: Hogan is a very good player when available.

 

 

[DubDee 26,674]

33 minutes ago, ManDee said:

You are not reading what I said and are implying things that I didn't say.

My point was that he has been unable for many reasons to play a full season. I place no blame on him for that, it is merely a statement of fact.

Fact: Hogan has missed 41 games out of a possible 112

Hogan is a very talented player that for many reasons has missed many games.

We are in the window for a premiership and I really think we can be better served with a forward line including talls T Mac -Weid- Preuss/Gawn than with Hogan & no Preuss/Gawn. I do not think that Preuss/Gawn will kick as many goals as Hogan but I think the 2 ruckman structure will help the overall team result. That is my opinion. To put it simply I think we will be a more successful side without Hogan than we were with him, only time will tell.

Fact: Hogan kicked 152 goals over 5 seasons averaging 31 per season.

Fact: Hogan missed 41 games.

Opinion: Hogan is a very good player when available.

 

 

You originally latched onto a post saying Hogan is now underrated and is worth 40-50 goals a season.  you questioned this so I questioned you.

obviously he has missed chunks of games as Trac and Lever and other young guys do.  he has played =>20 games a season 3 out of the last 4 years which is a good result for a young fwd. We disagree on Hogan's worth obviously and I am ok with him going as he wanted to go home but I really don't understand how people think he isn't a significant loss.  

and 7 game Preuss? good back up but it would be miraculous if he was a regular in the 22

[ManDee 7,395]

23 hours ago, TheoX said:

I know he's gone so we tend to downplay how good a player was, but Hogan was very much proven, and is a significant loss. We need to make up his 40-50 goals.

 

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

You originally latched onto a post saying Hogan is now underrated and is worth 40-50 goals a season.  you questioned this so I questioned you.

obviously he has missed chunks of games as Trac and Lever and other young guys do.  he has played =>20 games a season 3 out of the last 4 years which is a good result for a young fwd. We disagree on Hogan's worth obviously and I am ok with him going as he wanted to go home but I really don't understand how people think he isn't a significant loss.  

and 7 game Preuss? good back up but it would be miraculous if he was a regular in the 22

I question that he is worth 40-50 goals per year when his career average is 31. He is capable of 70 in my opinion, but I don't think he will ever make it. Does that mean that I under rate him, I don't know.  Some of our best wins over the last few years have been without Hogan, so time to move on, he wanted to go home, I want us to win a flag and I truly believe we will be better without Hogan.

Sorry for the off topic rantings.

I think Corey Wagner could be a good pick up, he was very good at Casey and should help to provide more depth to our list.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,540]

If he ends up being half as good as older bro Josh....

[Bay Riffin 1,518]

21 hours ago, FarNorthernD said:

And isn’t the realisation that TMac may turn out to be a more valuable forward than Hogan just mind blowing.

I know that are from the different draft years but I’m guessing there isn’t a recruiter in the land who would have looked at them both as 17 year olds and thought I prefer the uncoordinated kid from country Victoria. 

I appreciate it is an extreme case but it does highlight the unpredictable nature of the draft, particularly for talls 

 

Hogan is clearly ahead of Reiwoldt at the same stage of their careers.

[hemingway 7,633]

1 hour ago, ManDee said:

 

I question that he is worth 40-50 goals per year when his career average is 31. He is capable of 70 in my opinion, but I don't think he will ever make it. Does that mean that I under rate him, I don't know.  Some of our best wins over the last few years have been without Hogan, so time to move on, he wanted to go home, I want us to win a flag and I truly believe we will be better without Hogan.

Sorry for the off topic rantings.

I think Corey Wagner could be a good pick up, he was very good at Casey and should help to provide more depth to our list.

Have not seen him play, but his highlights look impressive

Not overly tall but has good speed, good sideways movement/step, effective foot skills, hard at the ball and opponent. 

[ManDee 7,395]

36 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

Hogan is clearly ahead of Reiwoldt at the same stage of their careers.

No he is not!

At the same age Riewoldt averaged 2.8 goals per game Hogan 2.4

Hogan at 22yo kicked 20 goals from 10games  - Riewoldt at 22 yo kicked 78 from 22 games

Hogan at 23 this year kicked 47 goals from 20 games - Riewoldt at 23 in 2011 22 games 62 goals

Riewoldt tends to not miss matches Hogan has missed 41

Do I need to go on?

In the last 2 years Hogan has kicked 67 goals at the same age Riewoldt kicked 140 over 2 years.

Don't make stuff up. 

 

Edit: Data courtesy of Footywire - also fixed a typo on stats-had goals & games reversed

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=9&playerStatus2=A&tid2=15&type=T&pid1=3916&pid2=1731&fid1=O&fid2=O

Edited November 22, 2018 by ManDee

[Bay Riffin 1,518]

5 hours ago, ManDee said:

No he is not!

At the same age Riewoldt averaged 2.8 goals per game Hogan 2.4

Hogan at 22yo kicked 20 goals from 10games  - Riewoldt at 22 yo kicked 78 from 22 games

Hogan at 23 this year kicked 47 goals from 20 games - Riewoldt at 23 in 2011 22 games 62 goals

Riewoldt tends to not miss matches Hogan has missed 41

Do I need to go on?

In the last 2 years Hogan has kicked 67 goals at the same age Riewoldt kicked 140 over 2 years.

Don't make stuff up. 

 

Edit: Data courtesy of Footywire - also fixed a typo on stats-had goals & games reversed

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=9&playerStatus2=A&tid2=15&type=T&pid1=3916&pid2=1731&fid1=O&fid2=O

at around the 70 game mark was my comparison. Reiwoldt was settling into an 11 possession 2.8 goals FF. Jess was around 18 possies 2.5 goals a game.

I have Hogan ahead. He gets a LOT of the ball.

[Nasher 33,684]

9 hours ago, The Chazz said:

This is just a poor post, in particular the top line.  I have said he will be depth at best, and that if it doesn't work out, it's really cost us nothing so no great loss.  

Depth at best. You've used that phrase twice now and it's why I interpreted your post as rank dismissal. You're saying that the absolute, best possible case scenario is that he's injury cover, and that there's no possibility whatsoever that he could develop in to a good player in his on own right. The only other scenerios are that he's worse than a depth player, that's why being depth is the best. Unless you have some other meaning for the word "best"?

[The Chazz 4,077]

1 hour ago, Nasher said:

Depth at best. You've used that phrase twice now and it's why I interpreted your post as rank dismissal. You're saying that the absolute, best possible case scenario is that he's injury cover, and that there's no possibility whatsoever that he could develop in to a good player in his on own right. The only other scenerios are that he's worse than a depth player, that's why being depth is the best. Unless you have some other meaning for the word "best"?

As it stands, I have a number of players ahead of him that could or can play a similar role. Some of these players aren't in my best 22. So for Corey, I think he has a lot of work to do to leapfrog these players to become "first drop" depth. He may do it, hence why I said depth at best.

The jump to become best 22, which again is what the OP implied, is going to be out of reach in my view.

Hopefully this clarifies it for you.

[Guest]

Never underestimate the dynamism of an AFL list.

Every season a player's improvement seems to come from nowhere whilst a player seemingly cemented in the 22 drifts out.

[DeeZee 7,496]

Recruiters don’t not recruit players for “depth at best”

Corey is a hard worker and regularly gets to multiple contests, he will probably force his way into the side at some stage , mainly as we have a need for zippy outside players who get a lot of the ball.

[ManDee 7,395]

12 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

at around the 70 game mark was my comparison. Reiwoldt was settling into an 11 possession 2.8 goals FF. Jess was around 18 possies 2.5 goals a game.

I have Hogan ahead. He gets a LOT of the ball.

It may have been your comparison to suit your argument. At the end of 2010 season Riewoldt had played 68 games and was 21 yo. Jesse started this season as a 23 yo. You are now twisting this to make a case. You made claims about 40-50 goal forward (which he is capable of but he is unreliable), now it is possessions. The fact is even when comparing him to a player 2 years his junior he is not as reliable as a forward nor does he kick as many goals. Sam Weideman is a 21 yo forward.  I can compare him to midfielder if you like but that is not what you were talking about, a 40-50 goal a year forward. As an aside to a derailment , we could have picked Riewoldt instead of Frawley. Bay I think we can agree that we have traded a very good player, it will be a loss. PS: I met Ray Biffen when I was a kid, nice guy.