PICKS # 26 & 31 (formerly # 23 & 28)

[Pennant St Dee 11,481]

I want more midfield and bigger bodied depth so at 23 and 28 I want 2 from

Ely Smith

Luke Valente

Xavier O'Halloran

Xavier Duursma

 

 

[WERRIDEE 5,248]

Sturt and Duursma for me please.

Ayton-Delaney at 54

Bedford at 62

C.Wagner at 91

Lockhart rookied

Partington and Townsend delisted free agents

[Dr.D 1,771]

1 hour ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I want more midfield and bigger bodied depth so at 23 and 28 I want 2 from

Ely Smith

Luke Valente

Xavier O'Halloran

Xavier Duursma

 

 

ely smith looks like a gun. i want him too. 

[WERRIDEE 5,248]

2 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Sturt and Duursma for me please.

Ayton-Delaney at 54

Bedford at 62

Hind at 91

Lockhart and C.Wagner rookied

Partington delisted free agent

 

[spirit of norm smith 13,414]

For me agree it’s down to 6

Bailey Williams - Dandenong-Big forward/ruck, Agile, Skilled, Goalkicker. Likely to go 15-19.

Xavier O’Halloran-Western- highly skilled ruck rover. 187cms. Inside/outside. Classic modern midfielder, A leader. Likely 23-25 pick  

Ely Smith- midfield bull, competitor, clearance king,  Pace,  toughness, ready to go. Likely to go 15-23

Xavier Duursma - Gippsland- pacy mid, takes game on, attacking mid, inside/outside competitor. Likely 23-25 pick  

Tom McKenzie- Northern- the runner. Outside midfielder.  Very skilled.  Good competitor.  Perfect fit. Likely pick 23-28

Chayce Jones - Tassie- another outside running mid. Wingman. Classic footballer. Good skills and decisions. Likely pick 25-29. 

[Dr.D 1,771]

AFL Draft 2018: The player your club should take with its first pick

[Hiram Cowfreak 75]

I don’t know if he is any good at footy, but jeez l hope we gazump Hawthorn and get Irving Mosquito

[DeeSpencer 23,484]

So who can we rule out being available at 23?

Excluding academy players because their teams picks to match come after 23 I'd say the following names appear too consistently to fall to 23 outside of a dramatic fall:

The top names (7): Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, Rozee, B Smith, M. King, B King
The consistent mid first rounders (4): Caldwell, Hately, Clarke, Collier-Dawkins

After that the next best grouping, some of which might be available at 23 (9): Duursma, Stocker, Butters, O'Halloran, Sturt, Taylor, Jones, Hill, McLennan

Every year there's 1 or 2 bolters in to the top 20 who aren't talked about by the common media/draft experts as well as a couple who the group think has as top 20 who are actually 35+.  

Keen draft watchers, are there any of the top 11 I've named who are any chance to fall to 23? And what about the next group or any others, who's likely to be gone before we pick?

[Mach5 4,490]

Get the feeling that teams like the depth of talent in this draft, judging by the number of surprise delistings and list spots being made available.

[Binmans PA 26,492]

On 10/20/2018 at 1:41 PM, big_red_fire_engine said:

I suggest 38 and more rookies is the way we will go. With the serious depth on our list we can take players at 23 and 28 who are high talent that we accept can put significant development time in over their first contract with no pressure to do anything but develop at Casey.

Do we really have significant depth though? I'm not convinced.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,332]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Do we really have significant depth though? I'm not convinced.

My assumptive best 22 is as follows

Back: Jetta: May: Hibberd

HB: Salem: O-Mac: Lever

Cen: Kola: Oliver: Harmes

HF: Trac: Weid: ANB

For: Spargo: T-Mac: Melk

Ruck: Gawn: Brayshaw: Viney

I/C: Lewis: AVB: Jones: Fritsch: 

This leave us with:

• key back depth both proven in Frost and emerging in Petty and Keilty.
• small to mid backs in Hunt , Smith and Wagner with potential to swing around Lewis, Fritsch or Kolo as required.
• Key forward leaves us a bit light with T.Smith but the flexibility to play the extra ruck or a smaller one tall forward line with Trac or Melksham as the second. I suspect there is a chance that J Smith also is trialled forward.
• A back up ruck position better than last year. 
• Strong Small forward cover in Garlett and Hannan,  
• Midfield depth we really only have Stretch , JKH and the untried Maynard and Baker but we have plenty of flex in our half backs and forwards to play midfield minutes and suspect we will draft more in this space. 

Our depth knowing we have 8ish spots to fill allows us to swing wide for best available talent from a mid to long view without trying to fix for the short term. 

[DeeSpencer 23,484]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Get the feeling that teams like the depth of talent in this draft, judging by the number of surprise delistings and list spots being made available.

An AFL recruiter told me mid year this isn't a deep draft without much talent after pick 40. I think teams are manipulating the salary cap better, using rookie spots and conducting almost a secondary trade period now with delisted players. It's pretty much a trash and treasure swap meet with delisted players.

I think rebuilding sides will get most of their picks done by pick 45 and then the teams in contention who have traded in players like the Hawks will roll the dice with late picks. Our strategy seems to be to get 3 good picks and fill the last 3 list spots by the best available means be that drafting one or two more kids, drafting a state league type, picking up a delisted player or having an extra rookie.

[Binmans PA 26,492]

2 hours ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

My assumptive best 22 is as follows

Back: Jetta: May: Hibberd

HB: Salem: O-Mac: Lever

Cen: Kola: Oliver: Harmes

HF: Trac: Weid: ANB

For: Spargo: T-Mac: Melk

Ruck: Gawn: Brayshaw: Viney

I/C: Lewis: AVB: Jones: Fritsch: 

This leave us with:

• key back depth both proven in Frost and emerging in Petty and Keilty.
• small to mid backs in Hunt , Smith and Wagner with potential to swing around Lewis, Fritsch or Kolo as required.
• Key forward leaves us a bit light with T.Smith but the flexibility to play the extra ruck or a smaller one tall forward line with Trac or Melksham as the second. I suspect there is a chance that J Smith also is trialled forward.
• A back up ruck position better than last year. 
• Strong Small forward cover in Garlett and Hannan,  
• Midfield depth we really only have Stretch , JKH and the untried Maynard and Baker but we have plenty of flex in our half backs and forwards to play midfield minutes and suspect we will draft more in this space. 

Our depth knowing we have 8ish spots to fill allows us to swing wide for best available talent from a mid to long view without trying to fix for the short term. 

This is the glaring issue for mine. We've no midfield depth, unless we see Salem, ANB and Lewis roll through the middle, which I don't think we'd want. That would leave maybe 7 guys that can go through there from: Oliver, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Viney, AVB and Jones.

It'll be interesting to see if we pick up any delisted FAs and what our draft strategy is.

[Willmoy1947 3,814]

I think Baker and Preuss could figure early in our best 22 to strut their wares.

[Demon Disciple 11,134]

30 minutes ago, A F said:

It'll be interesting to see if we pick up any delisted FAs and what our draft strategy is.

Mids, Mids, a KPF and then more Mids.

[WERRIDEE 5,248]

5 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

Mids, Mids, a KPF and then more Mids.

mids with speed a small forward or 2. Don't need a key forward, let's see what they do with either J.Smith, Keilty or Petty because one of them should be used as a key forward. We have too many key backs. I think stats show if a key tall forward isn't picked up in the top 10 chances are he won't make it.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,563]

1 hour ago, WERRIDEE said:

mids with speed a small forward or 2. Don't need a key forward, let's see what they do with either J.Smith, Keilty or Petty because one of them should be used as a key forward. We have too many key backs. I think stats show if a key tall forward isn't picked up in the top 10 chances are he won't make it.

I agree we don't need a developing tall. We can just go after one in free agency if we end up needing one. 

I'd like to see us pick another inside mid and then a couple of quick small forward/mids (one will be Bedford).

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,533]

13 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

An AFL recruiter told me mid year this isn't a deep draft without much talent after pick 40. I think teams are manipulating the salary cap better, using rookie spots and conducting almost a secondary trade period now with delisted players. It's pretty much a trash and treasure swap meet with delisted players.

I think rebuilding sides will get most of their picks done by pick 45 and then the teams in contention who have traded in players like the Hawks will roll the dice with late picks. Our strategy seems to be to get 3 good picks and fill the last 3 list spots by the best available means be that drafting one or two more kids, drafting a state league type, picking up a delisted player or having an extra rookie.

A delightful analogy. So much better than calling it a "meat market".

[Dr.D 1,771]

Stuff our needs. Get best available for our top 2 picks. 

 

[rjay 24,046]

43 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Stuff our needs. Get best available for our top 2 picks. 

 

Yep, draft should always be best available.

The draft board is littered with clubs who got this one wrong.

Trade for needs...

[Moonshadow 16,409]

Draft for talent, trade for need. Best available for our first two picks.

[samcantstandya 952]

7 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

Draft for talent, trade for need. Best available for our first two picks.

I hope that's our strategy.

[durango 1,984]

The usual criteria is draft the best available but if it come down to 2 then draft for needs first.

[Fitz Fitzpatrick 886]

On 10/19/2018 at 10:04 PM, Elwood 3184 said:

Problem being that Buku Khamis is a NGA tied to the Western Bulldogs who are likely to match any bid from 3rd Round plus which is probably where he’ll go.

Bailey Williams, on the other hand, would be worth looking at with Pick 23 or 28.

?

[spirit of norm smith 13,414]

On 10/26/2018 at 9:45 PM, spirit of norm smith said:

For me agree it’s down to 6

Bailey Williams - Dandenong-Big forward/ruck, Agile, Skilled, Goalkicker. Likely to go 15-19.

Xavier O’Halloran-Western- highly skilled ruck rover. 187cms. Inside/outside. Classic modern midfielder, A leader. Likely 23-25 pick  

Ely Smith- midfield bull, competitor, clearance king,  Pace,  toughness, ready to go. Likely to go 15-23

Xavier Duursma - Gippsland- pacy mid, takes game on, attacking mid, inside/outside competitor. Likely 23-25 pick  

Tom McKenzie- Northern- the runner. Outside midfielder.  Very skilled.  Good competitor.  Perfect fit. Likely pick 23-28

Chayce Jones - Tassie- another outside running mid. Wingman. Classic footballer. Good skills and decisions. Likely pick 25-29. 

Just read that Jones could be rated top 10-12  

Geelong likely at pick 12.  

Maybe someone like Liam Stocker might slide and still be there at 23.

Edited November 2, 2018 by spirit of norm smith
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