Phantom Drafts - 2018

[Lord Travis 10,457]

24 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Jack Bytel remains the mystery.  If the medicals show promise, he could be a huge steal.  

Agreed. He’s a first round talent who’s slid due to back injuries this year. He’s not really what we need, but if his body is ok he’d have to be considered. Very talented and determined young ball winner.

[WERRIDEE 5,346]

20 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Agreed. He’s a first round talent who’s slid due to back injuries this year. He’s not really what we need, but if his body is ok he’d have to be considered. Very talented and determined young ball winner.

Why isn't he what we need?

[Lord Travis 10,457]

Our list has enough grunt and inside ball winning ability, but needs more players with elite kicking skills who can provide run.

We also need more tall forward coverage, as there are only two on our entire list now.

So while we are well stocked for inside mids, Bytel is a talented player who is well worth considering if his body is right.

If we do hit the draft with 23 and 28 I’m hoping for Williams and O’Halloran.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Lord Travis

[Demon Disciple 11,607]

5 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Why isn't he what we need?

Probably because we have several inside midfielders on our list. If he has come back to full fitness, i wouldn't hesitate to draft him. After all, we did lose Tyson and Jones is getting long in the tooth and you can never have too much quality.

Need to keep the midfield age profile well spread too.

[WERRIDEE 5,346]

8 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Our list has enough grunt and inside ball winning ability, but needs more players with elite kicking skills who can provide run.

We also need more tall forward coverage, as there are only two on our entire list now.

So while we are well stocked for inside mids, Bytel is a talented player who is well worth considering if his body is right.

If we do hit the draft with 23 and 28 I’m hoping for Williams and O’Halloran.

I think I'll be happy with whoever Taylor picks at 23 and 28 he has the runs on the board. I would seriously think Williams is off the table after watching Taylor on inside Melbourne. Mids, mids and more mids he's obsessed with mids. Next year we will probably look tall depending on how Bradtke develops but they must rate him pretty highly to put your eggs in the Bradtke basket.

[Mach5 4,599]

6 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

I think I'll be happy with whoever Taylor picks at 23 and 28 he has the runs on the board. I would seriously think Williams is off the table after watching Taylor on inside Melbourne. Mids, mids and more mids he's obsessed with mids. Next year we will probably look tall depending on how Bradtke develops but they must rate him pretty highly to put your eggs in the Bradtke basket.

Good to hear, I feel the same.

[spirit of norm smith 15,110]

tonight will tell the story - 1st round

in a way it helps MFC for pick 23 (3rd or 4th pick on Friday morning) as we can sit down and talk through our options and who is available 

it is a midfield focus according to Taylor’s discussion

might have to see if any top 20 player slides as is usually happens but then consider why (work rate, attitude, other teams draft  priorities)

 

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,836]

41 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

tonight will tell the story - 1st round

in a way it helps MFC for pick 23 (3rd or 4th pick on Friday morning) as we can sit down and talk through our options and who is available 

it is a midfield focus according to Taylor’s discussion

might have to see if any top 20 player slides as is usually happens but then consider why (work rate, attitude, other teams draft  priorities)

 

Completely agree the two day draft really helps us pause and rethink all possibilities with 23 and 28. Even more so gives me confidence that whoever Taylor chooses will be the right picks. 

[Red and Blue Flame 150]

would we entertain trading 23 and 28 to get a pick inside the 20s?

That would mean one less pick but could use 62 to promote Tim Smith (guessing 91 to promote Maynard is a lock)

[Mach5 4,599]

1 hour ago, Red and Blue Flame said:

would we entertain trading 23 and 28 to get a pick inside the 20s?

That would mean one less pick but could use 62 to promote Tim Smith (guessing 91 to promote Maynard is a lock)

 

Really depends on whether the “sliders” are high on our list or not.

[Clintosaurus 7,544]

Been some talk the Bulldogs may look to trade down if Bailey Smith is gone before their pick. If he is, I'd be offering 28 and next years' first rounder for pick 7. Pick 16 is worth 1067 (was going to say pick 18, which is 985 points ) and 28 is worth 677. Pick 7 is worth 1644 so it is in fair trade territory. Means any bids for Bedford cost less as well.

[Lucifers Hero 38,968]

Our draft position has slipped a bit - pick #23 is now pick 27 to 29 in a number of the 'phantom' drafts and pick #28 is now in the low to mid 30's, courtesy of the high number of F/S and Academy 'Tied' players at the pointy end of the draft?

Most of the clubs to which a player is 'Tied' have traded out their first round picks for later pick points.  This distorts the draft as both they and the club that now holds their 1st round pick get a top player pushing the rest down the order.

It somewhat defeats the purpose of trading to get into the top quartile of the draft.

This situation will happen more and more with so many Academies in place and F/S players.  Feel the current trading/bidding system needs to be revisited by the AFL.  Removing the point discount might be a good start.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,836]

Based on watching nothing more than highlights and what I think is realistic based on our selections my preferred 4 picks would be OHalloran, Bytel, one of Turner/McKenzie and Bedford. Assuming no long term back concerns our list and development support allows us to give Bytel the time to get himself right and risk a boom or bust pick. My view is Walsh aside his video highlights show the next best rounded midfield attributes. 

[DubDee 24,328]

17 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

The latest Twomey phantom draft -

LATE MAIL TOP 30

Pick 1 – Carlton – Sam Walsh
Pick 2 – Gold Coast – Jack Lukosius
Pick 3 – Gold Coast – Izak Rankine
Pick 4 – St Kilda – Max King
Pick 5 – Port Adelaide – Connor Rozee
Pick 6 – Gold Coast – Ben King
Pick 7 – Western Bulldogs – Bailey Smith
Pick 8 – Sydney (matching Adelaide's bid) – Nick Blakey
Pick 9 – North Melbourne (matching Adelaide's bid) – Tarryn Thomas
Pick 10 – Adelaide – Jye Caldwell
Pick 11 – Greater Western Sydney – Jackson Hately
Pick 12 – Port Adelaide – Jordan Clark
Pick 13 – Greater Western Sydney – Riley Collier-Dawkins
Pick 14 – Geelong – Chayce Jones
Pick 15 – Collingwood (matching Adelaide's bid) – Isaac Quaynor
Pick 16 – Adelaide – Zak Butters
Pick 17 – Fremantle – Ian Hill
Pick 18 – Port Adelaide – Xavier Duursma
Pick 19 – Adelaide – Ned McHenry
Pick 20 – Richmond – Liam Stocker
Pick 21 – Brisbane Lions – Ely Smith
Pick 22 – Greater Western Sydney – Sam Sturt
Pick 23 – West Coast – Curtis Taylor
Pick 24 – Greater Western Sydney (matching Adelaide's bid) – Kieren Briggs
Pick 25 – Collingwood (matching Adelaide's bid) – Will Kelly
Pick 26 – Adelaide – Luke Valente
Pick 27 – West Coast – Luke Foley
Pick 28 – Western Bulldogs (matching Melbourne's bid) – Rhylee West
Pick 29 – Melbourne – Xavier O'Halloran
Pick 30 – Gold Coast – Jez McLennan

So Sydney will pick up a gun fwd rated around pick 6 without using a pick in the top 30?  wow that academy point system is a rort! Sydney will never slide too far

[Lord Travis 10,457]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Our draft position has slipped a bit - pick #23 is now pick 27 to 29 in a number of the 'phantom' drafts and pick #28 is now in the low to mid 30's, courtesy of the high number of F/S and Academy 'Tied' players at the pointy end of the draft?

Most of the clubs to which a player is 'Tied' have traded out their first round picks for later pick points.  This distorts the draft as both they and the club that now holds their 1st round pick get a top player pushing the rest down the order.

It somewhat defeats the purpose of trading to get into the top quartile of the draft.

This situation will happen more and more with so many Academies in place and F/S players.  Feel the current trading/bidding system needs to be revisited by the AFL.  Removing the point discount might be a good start.

The players taken with the academy and father/son picks would not have been available to us anyway. So while the pick number slides down, we are still selecting from the exact same players being available.

[Lord Travis 10,457]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

So Sydney will pick up a gun fwd rated around pick 6 without using a pick in the top 30?  wow that academy point system is a rort! Sydney will never slide too far

Correct technically, however unlike in the past they now go into a deficit with their points. So in 2019 their points will be negative xxxx, meaning they lose all their highest selection downwards until the deficit is met. So they'll likely lose their first and second round selections next year to pay for Blakey this year, if they makes sense.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,644]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Our draft position has slipped a bit - pick #23 is now pick 27 to 29 in a number of the 'phantom' drafts and pick #28 is now in the low to mid 30's, courtesy of the high number of F/S and Academy 'Tied' players at the pointy end of the draft?

Most of the clubs to which a player is 'Tied' have traded out their first round picks for later pick points.  This distorts the draft as both they and the club that now holds their 1st round pick get a top player pushing the rest down the order.

It somewhat defeats the purpose of trading to get into the top quartile of the draft.

This situation will happen more and more with so many Academies in place and F/S players.  Feel the current trading/bidding system needs to be revisited by the AFL.  Removing the point discount might be a good start.

I anticipate clubs will soon have to employ an actuary just to ensure they calculate points value correctly.

[Lucifers Hero 38,968]

16 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

The players taken with the academy and father/son picks would not have been available to us anyway. So while the pick number slides down, we are still selecting from the exact same players being available.

If the club to which an Academy or F/S player is 'Tied' kept their 1st round pick (eg pick 11) it would be used to draft their player.  By trading that pick out the 'Tied' club uses junk picks late in the draft to match a draft bid on him and the club that received their 1st round pick eg pick 11 draft a player.  Effectively, two players are removed from the draft instead on one so less players to then chose from. 

Eventually, late in the draft it evens out when the 'junk picks' are used but the top end of the draft is distorted and valuable picks slide eg our #23 to #29.

[Lucifers Hero 38,968]

49 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Correct technically, however unlike in the past they now go into a deficit with their points. So in 2019 their points will be negative xxxx, meaning they lose all their highest selection downwards until the deficit is met. So they'll likely lose their first and second round selections next year to pay for Blakey this year, if they makes sense.

A team works very hard to not go negative into the next year.

eg Sydney will have the points for Blakely @ 6/7/8 with picks 26/33/38 and maybe 39.  They will still have picks 39, 40 and 88 to fulfill their draft quota without going into deficit.

[DeeSpencer 24,689]

55 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Correct technically, however unlike in the past they now go into a deficit with their points. So in 2019 their points will be negative xxxx, meaning they lose all their highest selection downwards until the deficit is met. So they'll likely lose their first and second round selections next year to pay for Blakey this year, if they makes sense.

No they won't. They've got plenty of picks this year to match an early bid without going in to deficit.

[DeeSpencer 24,689]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

So Sydney will pick up a gun fwd rated around pick 6 without using a pick in the top 30?  wow that academy point system is a rort! Sydney will never slide too far

Yes and no.

They did trade pick 13 to Carlton in a 3 way deal with the Crows for picks 26, 28 and 40. 

They'll probably get a top 5/top 7 player for pick 13. Not a bad return for employing John Blakey for a decade.

When added to Mills and Heeney it allows them to never go down the ladder to acquire elite talent, although the other main aspect of rebuilding - bringing in bulk picks to get younger - is a little harder for them.

[Diamond_Jim 12,351]

sorry for the ignorance but does MFC get a pick tonight or is it tomorrow?

thanks

[Chelly 808]

32 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

sorry for the ignorance but does MFC get a pick tonight or is it tomorrow?

thanks

Our first pick is currently in the second round which will be part of the remainder of the draft starting tomorrow morning.

However, in the unlikely event that we could somehow trade into the first round, then we would get a pick at the selection into which we trade. I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. 

[spirit of norm smith 15,110]

4 hours ago, big_red_fire_engine said:

Based on watching nothing more than highlights and what I think is realistic based on our selections my preferred 4 picks would be OHalloran, Bytel, one of Turner/McKenzie and Bedford. Assuming no long term back concerns our list and development support allows us to give Bytel the time to get himself right and risk a boom or bust pick. My view is Walsh aside his video highlights show the next best rounded midfield attributes. 

Based on watching 4 national championships matches live and 7 under 18s matches live ... plus highlights ... I agree with you. 

Ohalloran is a star.  Bytel can be the steal of the draft.  McKenzie is exactly what we need for outside pace whilst Turner is a jet who needs some refinement. All would be good picks. 

Mostly watched Stingrays games so I am biased. Bedford is a lock. Other Stingrays such as Will Hamill, Zac Foot, Bailey Williams and Sam Sturt should be drafted.  Riley Bowman is also not to be overlooked.

Saw GF v Chargers. Collier-Dawkins is a absolute gun. Impressed by James Jordan and Will Kelly. 

[DeeSpencer 24,689]

Not sure that's a great result for us. Ely Smith, Sturt, O'Halloran all gone. 

Ian Hill, Curtis Taylor, Luke Valente, Luke Foley the highest media rated still left I guess.

Nervous with Sydney ahead of us as well as West Coast and Adelaide. 3 of the better drafting sides.