Farewell Jesse Hogan

[No10 461]

10 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

Gleeson, Niall and Bartel on The Age podcast saying Hogan for 4 or 5, and "he's not worth both" [presume they mean 4 and 5 rather than some combo of 4/5 and 9/10)].

It seems that Demonlanders are fairly unanimous that Hogan is worth 2 picks in top 10 and some media now clear he's worth 1.

How do this seemingly knowledgeable trio seem poles apart from the combined intelligence of Demonland.

Just wait for it, one of them (probably Caro) will hype it up massively leading in.

The story will be Hogan Redefining Trade Currency. But they’ll have a better headline.

[Its Time for Another 4,287]

2 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Gleeson, Niall and Bartel on The Age podcast saying Hogan for 4 or 5, and "he's not worth both" [presume they mean 4 and 5 rather than some combo of 4/5 and 9/10)].

It seems that Demonlanders are fairly unanimous that Hogan is worth 2 picks in top 10 and some media now clear he's worth 1.

How do this seemingly knowledgeable trio seem poles apart from the combined intelligence of Demonland.

Wonder how they reconcile that value with what the market has actually been doing over the past few years. For instance Judd picks No.3 (Chris Masten) and No.20 (Tony Notte) and now two-time Coleman Medallist, six-time leading goalkicker and premiership player Josh Kennedy.Treloar for picks 7 & the next years 7. Lever for 2 first rounders. And there's a few more. You can't compare either of them to Hogan. One is a very good midfielder but not in the top 10 midfielders in the league. The other is an intercepting 3rd man up backman who isn't even a key back. 

Hogan is significantly ahead at this stage of his career on all statistics against all the top key forwards in history including Dunstall, Lockett, Carey, Kennedy Franklin etc etc  

Key forwards are much more valuable than any other key position players. A backman just has to punch and react to a forward. A forward has to be able to read the play and know where to lead and then be able to mark a ball on a lead and in a pack. 

Hogan is a freak can do all of that plus elite athletic ability and agility so can play all ground. We'll be looking on him in years to come going Jeez he used to be an MFC player. 

Who are they kidding. So much of the journalism nowadays is so ill informed. Can't believe they get paid to deliver that standard of work. Most of us would be sacked if we performed our jobs to that standard. 

Edited October 4, 2018 by It's Time

[D4Life 2,525]

4 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Wonder how they reconcile that value with what the market has actually been doing over the past few years. For instance Treloar for picks 7 & the next years 7. Lever for 2 first rounders. And there's a few more. You can't compare either of them to Hogan. One is a very good midfielder but not in the top 10 midfielders in the league. The other is an intercepting 3rd man up backman who isn't even a key back. 

Hogan is significantly ahead at this stage of his career on all statistics against all the top key forwards in history including Dunstall, Lockett, Carey, Kennedy Franklin etc etc  

Key forwards are much more valuable than any other key position players. A backman just has to punch and react to a forward. A forward has to be able to read the play and know where to lead and then be able to mark a ball on a lead and in a pack. 

Hogan is a freak can do all of that plus elite athletic ability and agility so can play all ground. We'll be looking on him in years to come going Jeez he used to be an MFC player. 

Who are they kidding. So much of the journalism nowadays is so ill informed. Can't believe they get paid to deliver that standard of work. Most of us would be sacked if we performed our jobs to that standard. 

Agree with your view. Would be good to see a list of last 10 years number 4 and 5 picks. How many as good as Hogan?

[Slartibartfast 17,625]

12 hours ago, Dr.D said:

mahoney can't screw us again at the trade table. He seems far too nice. Why did we cough up 2 first rounders for Lever when he was out of contract and we had all of the power? No-one can pre-empt an injury but we are so far behind on that trade so far. You need to be stronger this time around Josh!!

Your avatar is appropriate.

10 hours ago, Rod Grinter Riot Squad said:

Freo to GC on MAV Weller “you want him, you pay our asking price”

Melb to Freo on the Hulk ““you want him, you pay our asking price”

Karmas a biatch 

Rod trades aren't about win losses they are about win wins.  We have an objective (and I don't know what that is but most likely involves May).  If we achieve that objective it doesn't matter if we get pick 55 for Hogan.   Don't cut off your nose to spite your face.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I'm guessing we lost almost all of those 8 games you refer to. Those 10 clubs have the best defences and all team pressure in the comp so very hard for forwards, particularly with how many poor kicks we have (exacerbated by opposition pressure on the inside 50 kick)

In that context 9 goals from 8 games is ok. Particularly from a still developing, 23 year old key position player who often gets the best defender and has the intercept defender concentrating on covering him (and helped in that by poor kicks inside 50).

The interesting thing about the Judd trade is not Judd, it's Kennedy. About the same age as Hogan is now. His potential was obvious but he was the cream in that deal not the substance. Look at what he has become. Close to the best forward in the game and a critical player in the makeup of a gf winning team. Imagine how good jessie will be at the same stage of his career as Kennedy is now!

Please. 9 goals from 8 games is poor no matter how you want to dress it up or justify it. Hogan is not 19, he’s s 23yo big bodied forward at peak physical fitness. He failed in big games this season.

If supporters want to rightly give him his due and pump him up, then we also need to accept that dose of cold water. There are some flaws in his game. He is not Wayne Carey or Buddy Franklin and frankly never will be that good.

Will he be as good as Josh Kennedy? Who knows. Might, might not. But that wasn’t the crux of the “West Coast got a showbag if goodies for Judd. So should we for Hogan” ... was it. 

Be optimistic but realistic on Hogan. That’s all I’m saying.

 

 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

7 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Weak troll. It might seem like a cute joke but the ignorant here will believe this and run with it.  You should know better.

Sorry, Dad. 

Can I borrow the car?

[beelzebub 23,383]

6 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Your avatar is appropriate.

Rod trades aren't about win losses they are about win wins.  We have an objective (and I don't know what that is but most likely involves May).  If we achieve that objective it doesn't matter if we get pick 55 for Hogan.   Don't cut off your nose to spite your face.

This ought to be pinned. 

If we achieve OUR outcome, we've won. Rest is irrelevant.

[Slartibartfast 17,625]

2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

It could get ugly if he nominates the Eagles though.  They have Gaff cap space too.

I don't think so.  If we can't achieve our objective we just say no.  That gives the whole competition a full year to prepare their best offers.  Hogan won't "drop off" at MFC because he will want to maximise his next contract which will be long and expensive.

It's not ideal but having Hogan on our list next year isn't bad.

 

[Demons11 7,051]

12 hours ago, Dr.D said:

mahoney can't screw us again at the trade table. He seems far too nice. Why did we cough up 2 first rounders for Lever when he was out of contract and we had all of the power? No-one can pre-empt an injury but we are so far behind on that trade so far. You need to be stronger this time around Josh!!

Mahoney screwing us again, what are you talking about.  

When has he screwed us? 

[Redleg 41,428]

2 hours ago, Harbinger43 said:

My info in this is not as sound as the previous year ones you refer to but understand WCE concerned re Kennedy age and durability and see this as one they might rule letting slip 

Is it as sound as the article in the paper that says exactly what you have said. 

[daisycutter 29,738]

4 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I don't think so.  If we can't achieve our objective we just say no.  That gives the whole competition a full year to prepare their best offers.  Hogan won't "drop off" at MFC because he will want to maximise his next contract which will be long and expensive.

It's not ideal but having Hogan on our list next year isn't bad.

 

correct. and if we don't get may, hogan can play chb if the coach wishes. he has done so in his junior years.

[SFebes 4,884]

50 minutes ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

The major benefit is Freo won't want to risk waiting another year as the Eagles may have more to deal with next season.

Their hand will get forced as a result.

Eggzachery 

[Marty 419]

If Hogan did inform the club he wanted to go home we wouldn't all still be sitting in limbo. My Guess (I have no inside knowledge) is;

- Jesse goes to exit interview, everybody's happy, club says go rest up and get your foot right!

- Jesse meets his manager, manager says "got another offer from Freo, I'll tell Melb and get the ball rolling on contract negotiations for next year" Jesse says "all good"

- mangager meets with club and Mahoney says " yeh we've decided that we're not going through the will he sign or will he leave circus next year. It's to distracting for the other players. Here is 3 different offers for Jesse to look over, we can sort over the finer details in December, but we need an answer from Jesse by Friday and a signature by Christmas."

[beelzebub 23,383]

200 anyone 

[Winter Dan 470]

I'd imaging Hogan wouldn't want to come out and say - "I want to go to Fremantle", only for the Dees to knock back the dockers final offer of pick 4/5 and change (which they should). 

Would it be wise for the Dees to let Hogan's manager understand the situation and effectively act as an intermedary to ensure the right trade deal is on the table?

 

[Winter Dan 470]

5 minutes ago, deeology said:

If Hogan did inform the club he wanted to go home we wouldn't all still be sitting in limbo. My Guess (I have no inside knowledge) is;

- Jesse goes to exit interview, everybody's happy, club says go rest up and get your foot right!

- Jesse meets his manager, manager says "got another offer from Freo, I'll tell Melb and get the ball rolling on contract negotiations for next year" Jesse says "all good"

- mangager meets with club and Mahoney says " yeh we've decided that we're not going through the will he sign or will he leave circus next year. It's to distracting for the other players. Here is 3 different offers for Jesse to look over, we can sort over the finer details in December, but we need an answer from Jesse by Friday and a signature by Christmas."

Maybe so. Particularlly as it will influence the Weid situation.

[hemingway 7,631]

3 minutes ago, Winter Dan said:

Maybe so. Particularlly as it will influence the Weid situation.

It really is a  minefield in regard to total club salary management. 

A job for cool clear heads. 

[Adam The God 30,407]

25 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

Mahoney screwing us again, what are you talking about.  

When has he screwed us? 

The Doctor is a gronk.

[Cards13 9,117]

7 minutes ago, hemingway said:

It really is a  minefield in regard to total club salary management. 

A job for cool clear heads. 

Mahoney did also say they check in without Hoges every year and plan for the potential for him to say every year he might want to go. I think our guys have it covered.

[Marty 419]

It would effect everyone who is renewing their contract for next year, how big a slice of the pie Hogan takes. Startat the top and work the way down.

[daisycutter 29,738]

16 minutes ago, Winter Dan said:

I'd imaging Hogan wouldn't want to come out and say - "I want to go to Fremantle", only for the Dees to knock back the dockers final offer of pick 4/5 and change (which they should). 

Would it be wise for the Dees to let Hogan's manager understand the situation and effectively act as an intermedary to ensure the right trade deal is on the table?

 

any decent manager would tell him to make no public statements until it is resolved

[drdrake 3,187]

If he wants to go I reckon it will be picks and a player.  First round pick this year, future second Round pick plus Matt Taberner for Hogan and Pick 51.

If Hogan goes our tall forward stocks are light on so getting Taberner in is back up and I reckon he can play.

First Round and Future first round goes to Gold Coast for May, KK and Pick 18 this year

[JV7 2,354]

It's pretty obvious what has happened. The club's asked what Hogan's intentions are post this contract (2019) he can't give guarantees he will recommit at the end of this contract so the club knowing Steven May is available say to Hogan well what's your thoughts on going home this year ?

Makes total sense, why hold him to his final year for him to leave at the end of 2019 & we've missed the boat on May. I guarantee this wouldn't be happening if May wasn't gettable.

Edited October 4, 2018 by JV7

[Dirts 429]

In Regards to WCE, what can they offer.

Pick 21 and 22.

Maybe take Barass and pick 21.

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

21 minutes ago, hemingway said:

It really is a  minefield in regard to total club salary management. 

A job for cool clear heads. 

the wonders of the Excel spread sheet my friend.... they'll have the numbers with every variation loaded.

It's the curve balls that cause the problems.. like T Mac and Brayshaw... both players performed way outside their immediately expected salary curve for different reasons.

The interesting dynamic is what you build into the model for the next round of TV rights and therefore increases to the salary cap. I'd be thinking they are aggressive assumptions in the main. Internet streaming may deliver another golden egg.

Edited October 4, 2018 by Diamond_Jim