MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 18

[dl4e 5,850]

30 minutes ago, ProDee said:

How do Geelong look ?

I don't think much of their forward line but then our defence is a bit lacking. For us to win we will have to kill them in the middle and give forwards plenty of supply. That stewart is a good player for them so try to isolate him if possible.

[Demonland 70,283]

[Gator 17,260]

13 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I don't think much of their forward line but then our defence is a bit lacking. For us to win we will have to kill them in the middle and give forwards plenty of supply. That stewart is a good player for them so try to isolate him if possible.

There's no doubt our defence needs to have a really good day.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,557]

15 hours ago, Roost It said:

Can a conspiracy theorist tell me the last game we lost because of the umpires

Port Adel, three 50 meter penalties all resulted in goals , all home town decisions and their were many other deplorable decisions on the night.

A classic example, Jake Melksham's one on one mark and goal in the goal square given for holding, bodied his opponent out, disgrace.

Small minds tend to think umpiring bias doesn't occur.

That's almost as worse as a Pies fan claiming the AFL don't favour the bigger clubs with fixturing etc to generate more revenue.

CARLTON they deserved their primetime slots im sure of it, their a top side playing a good brand of footy.

Blinded by the light. Move along nothing to see here. Must work for the AFL.

[Nasher 33,607]

I’m really nervous about this game, but only because of its value to our finals aspirations. It’s the most important of all those remaining on the schedule considering Geelong are one of our key rivals on the ladder.

I’ve seen this Geelong team fold to pretty uninspiring teams a few times this year. Talent for talent, this game is quite winnable.

[SFebes 4,860]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/07/19/injuries-could-hurt-melbourne-quite-severely-wallace/

 

 

[Ouch! 2,205]

30 minutes ago, Nasher said:

I’m really nervous about this game, but only because of its value to our finals aspirations. It’s the most important of all those remaining on the schedule considering Geelong are one of our key rivals on the ladder.

I’ve seen this Geelong team fold to pretty uninspiring teams a few times this year. Talent for talent, this game is quite winnable.

Similar feeling here Nasher,

The game has a huge impact on whether we play finals or not, i think our last 3 weeks has been pretty good, we should have beaten Port other than a misfiring  effort into our forward line, and the last two weeks albeit against bottom teams has been good.

I am confident our team has the ability to beat Geelong. But I am not equating that to being confident about winning.

First quarter will be the telling part for me, within a goal or leading.

[SFebes 4,860]

On current form, we should beat Geelong, but, we've all been here and I can't see anything but a big letdown approaching. Fingers crossed

[DeleteUser 638]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Thanks Febes?. We have Nicholls tomorrow night. Never thought I’d say this.....bring Razor back!

you'll all be relieved to know I now have umpire appointment data and frees for/against going back to the 1860s.

I don't have a wish to cast aspersions upon long deceased fellows, so will concentrate on the last couple of years to see if I can pick any patterns for umpires and teams

Unfortunately I don't have frees data per umpire, just per match (with all the umpires for that match)

A quick glance does not indicate any clear patterns, but of course without more granular (per umpire, where free awarded, what for and which quarter) it's hard it drill down

[jnrmac 19,896]

Daniel Menzel loves playing Melbourne.........

 

Why are there insane restrictions on image file sizes, anyone?

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by jnrmac

[SFebes 4,860]

2 minutes ago, timbo said:

you'll all be relieved to know I now have umpire appointment data and frees for/against going back to the 1860s.

I don't have a wish to cast aspersions upon long deceased fellows, so will concentrate on the last couple of years to see if I can pick any patterns for umpires and teams

Unfortunately I don't have frees data per umpire, just per match (with all the umpires for that match)

A quick glance does not indicate any clear patterns, but of course without more granular (per umpire, where free awarded, what for and which quarter) it's hard it drill down

How many frees are paid this year vs say, 1994?

[loges 6,767]

11 hours ago, hemingway said:

The gap between our best and worst is a chasm.  

We just look so slow.

Cats balance across the ground from grunt, talls and outside speed looks so much better as does their finishing skills. 

Coaching wise, Scott and his team have the advantage. They will have had a very close look at the Dees and have their plans in place. I wish I had the same confidence in Goodwin and his team. 

And the umps will be totally intimidated by the Geelong crowd. 

If we get close it will be a surprise, if we win it will be a miracle ! 

 

Why aren't they higher on the ladder / Lost to Dogs a few weeks ago.

[Deespicable 2,681]

Delighted with the changes and the scene is set for a ripper game down there. I'm sure we'd win if it was back at the 'G, but down there they are a 5-10 goal better team, part of that because of home-town crowd inspired umpiring.

Whilst I would have liked to see our ever-ready battery Baker get a gig, I'm pleased he doesn't begin his career in such a cauldron and I'm also pleased JKH gets a chance to see if he can make it before decision time at season's end. He doesn't have to be sensational, he just has to stick his tackles and be evasive and link up. If he ends up on Kelly he's got to be there with him and if it's Menegola, then he's got to negate his height advantage.

I suspect Scott has decided to use Blicavs as back-up to Stanley at times on Max in the hope of running the legs off him. And I'll be gobsmacked if Scott Selwood isn't given the job of a hard tag on Angus. How Angus copes with it, will probably determine if we can get a break on them before three-quarter time.

I think all of us will be gobsmacked if in turn Goody plays Tyson again on a wing. My guess is that we will be sending him to Joel Selwood from the outset and hoping he can negate for at least the first half - the role he should have been given in Rd 1 if you recall.

Oliver, I suspect, will start forward and if our coach has started to learn that you need to have the odd structural move up your sleeve, then he will move him into the middle when Tyson starts tiring each quarter.

I love us having the flexibility of both Smith and Fritsch to throw forward, back or on to a wing as needs be. 

Ultimately though it will most likely get down to the final quarter will to win and that's when Joel does his best work and it's when we will really miss Viney. It would be lovely if Trac stepped up and took over the stoppages in the last, but it's hard to believe in fairytales.

 

 

[loges 6,767]

11 hours ago, timbo said:

Scott > Richardson and look what happened there . Buckley too

i have little confidence in the strategic and tactical coaching competence of our coaching staff 

I expect a post Geelongpocolypse goodwins head must roll postings increase after some blank stares 

always happy to be wrong however history does not inspire confidence 

The glass is not always half empty you know.

[kev martin 9,474]

The media has bashed us for a while now. The labels of "flat track" and not beating a top team have been used. Goody could have plenty of motivational stuff to get them going hard. I hope he has set the team up to hurt the cats and show them the way down the ladder.

Time for us to stand up, I would be disappointed if we don't roll them or at least give it all from the first bounce.

[scarlett 247]

If geelong are successful in roving to gawn and not allowing brayshaw and oliver win clean fast clearances i can see tyson being important playing the inside role that will still free brayshaw and oliver up to try and break away from congestion.

[Mondê 525]

57 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

Delighted with the changes and the scene is set for a ripper game down there. I'm sure we'd win if it was back at the 'G, but down there they are a 5-10 goal better team, part of that because of home-town crowd inspired umpiring.

 

 

Rubbish, could not disagree more. Their bottom 6 is awful

[DeleteUser 638]

1 hour ago, Deespicable said:

I love us having the flexibility of both Smith and Fritsch to throw forward, back or on to a wing as needs be.  

That assumes Goodwin can adapt and move them

[DeleteUser 638]

8 minutes ago, Mondê said:

Rubbish, could not disagree more. Their bottom 6 is awful

That's true but their top 6 is good.

Whose our bottom 6?

[scarlett 247]

12 minutes ago, timbo said:

That's true but their top 6 is good.

Whose our bottom 6?

I would go anb, jkh, smith, vince, spargo and the last one i would have said harmes earlier in the year but he's become more consistent. Lewis still impacts so maybe garlett.

[Mondê 525]

15 minutes ago, timbo said:

That's true but their top 6 is good.

Whose our bottom 6?

Obviously it is highly subjective but imo

Spargo, Frost, JKH, Joel Smith, Tyson, Garlett

V Geelongs 

Henry, Parfitt, Cunico, Bews, Jones, Narkle

I think ours is significantly stronger but maybe I'm biased.

[Roost It 1,434]

3 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

Port Adel, three 50 meter penalties all resulted in goals , all home town decisions and their were many other deplorable decisions on the night.

A classic example, Jake Melksham's one on one mark and goal in the goal square given for holding, bodied his opponent out, disgrace.

Small minds tend to think umpiring bias doesn't occur.

That's almost as worse as a Pies fan claiming the AFL don't favour the bigger clubs with fixturing etc to generate more revenue.

CARLTON they deserved their primetime slots im sure of it, their a top side playing a good brand of footy.

Blinded by the light. Move along nothing to see here. Must work for the AFL.

Yeh our loss to PA had nothing to do with our inability as a team to convert our chances. We dominated that game but were totally clumsy going into our 50. You can blame it on 2 or 3 or even 6 bad umpiring decisions. The fact remains  we lost that game due to inefficiency. 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Roost It

[binman 41,966]

35 minutes ago, Mondê said:

Rubbish, could not disagree more. Their bottom 6 is awful

That may be so but they are unquestionably a better side at their home ground.

Not sure about 5-6 golas better (that's alot) but their record is phenomenal down there and a huge leg up for them in terms of making finals.  It should be noted that their record is helped by the fact that in recent times often play lower ranked teams there.

Still this all time record is imposing (i love the games total -an omen?): 

                     P      W      D      L         GF-BF           For          GA-BA           Agn         %           Win%    
Geelong    666    443    5    218    9222.8790    64122    7600.7550    53150    120.64    66.89    

 

In the last few years their win % is even more impressive. They have won 21 of the last 24 games they have played at their home ground.

Interestingly Swans have won all 3 of those games which i think augurs well for us as i suspect a big factor is the tight ground suits the swans highly contested game and therefore also suits us. And there is n doubt now that we do better on narrower grounds so that is also in our favour. 

Edited July 20, 2018 by binman

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, binman said:

That may be so but they are most definatrley a better side at their home game.

Not sure about 5-6 golas better (that's alot) but their record is phenomenal down there and a huge leg up for them in terms of making finals.  It should be noted that their record is helped by the fact that in recent times often play lower ranked teams there.

Still this all time record is imposing (i love the games total -an omen?): 

                     P      W      D      L         GF-BF           For          GA-BA           Agn         %           Win%    
Geelong    666    443    5    218    9222.8790    64122    7600.7550    53150    120.64    66.89    

 

In the last few years their win % is even more impressive. They have won 21 of the last 24 games they have played at their home ground.

Interestingly Swans have won all 3 of those games which i think augurs well for us as i suspect a big factor is the tight ground suits the swans highly contested game and therefore also suits us. And there is n doubt now that we do better on narrower grounds so that is also in our favour. 

I also think we are the last team since the Swans to have won on that ground (in 2015).  

I agree with you and others that our game style suits the ground quite well, but we'll need to implement it to perfection to get over the Cats on their home turf.  They aren't the world beaters they used to be, but they play much better on their home deck.

[The Reverend 1,736]

4 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Be assured that it (life) is not narrow. Identifying error assists in the interpretation but moreso the amelioration of the game so that we  may all face an even playing environment wherein anomolies and repetitive inconsistencies are reduced for the benefit of the general public and the game itself. From that groundswell - already identified on this wonderful DL site - opinion and its description may also flourish under those benchmarks that we are pleased to apply as filters to our tools of interpretation, and ultimately our satisfaction with the spectacle. Each contributor is free to comment and contribute - within the bounds of good intent - their own ideas and to meet at the philosophical level on common grounds expressed in a myriad of ways for the mutual pursuits inherent in being a football supporter. As you dictate, you may find yourself accepting mediocrity within some 'big picture' focus which itself is a narrowed pathway and in turn, reap reduced involvement, compulsion in perspective and an increase in those observable deficiencies that stain the very environment in which the game is often marred or its elements and goodwill are reducible. Henceforth, enjoy your football but please do not take too many liberties with the enjoyment, perplexity and scrutiny of others in this great game.

Say that again???