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Run home to Finals - 2018

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  On 06/08/2018 at 03:23, bobby1554 said:

Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

 

Given the odds are dictated by the market and not Sportsbet themselves, it would appear that the wider (punting) AFL community has more faith in our chances of playing September than many long suffering posters here. September is not a question anymore in my mind - at this point it's down to whether we are going to finish top 4 or not. 2 out of the next 3 should have us in 4th. Very do-able.  

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:15, Smokey said:

    Given the odds are dictated by the market and not Sportsbet themselves, it would appear that the wider (punting) AFL community has more faith in our chances of playing September than many long suffering posters here. September is not a question anymore in my mind - at this point it's down to whether we are going to finish top 4 or not. 2 out of the next 3 should have us in 4th. Very do-able.  

    Some positivity. Fantastic !

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:32, loges said:

    Some positivity. Fantastic !

    is that allowed? Feels like you have to be a sad sack to post here...I reckon half the posters here were less miserable in 2012!

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:15, Smokey said:

    Given the odds are dictated by the market and not Sportsbet themselves, it would appear that the wider (punting) AFL community has more faith in our chances of playing September than many long suffering posters here. September is not a question anymore in my mind - at this point it's down to whether we are going to finish top 4 or not. 2 out of the next 3 should have us in 4th. Very do-able.  

    like when we were paying $11 to miss the finals before round 23 last year?

    forgive my pessimism but it is well founded and based on a lifetime of sporting disapointment

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:39, DubDee said:

    like when we were paying $11 to miss the finals before round 23 last year?

    forgive my pessimism but it is well founded and based on a lifetime of sporting disapointment

    only Melbourne fans know the pain and suffering our club can cause at times heres hoping this new group is ready to change all that

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:36, sisso said:

    is that allowed? Feels like you have to be a sad sack to post here...I reckon half the posters here were less miserable in 2012!

    I just think, if we miss finals, unleash the negative stuff then. Until then why not wish for the positive stuff to occur,ie a top 4 finish. As pro dee keeps saying, there are no super sides this year. Why not us ?

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      On 06/08/2018 at 02:42, —coach— said:

    Yes we have, both north and Adelaide were top 8 when we beat them earlier in the season.

    We haven’t beaten a CURRENT top 8 side though.

     

     

    Of our games this year against those that are currently top 8 from which we lost those games, it must be remembered (and this is a reality situation) that several wins were taken from us - through umpire interference and astounding decisions in front of opposition goals. Game flows were regularly interrupted merely to disrupt what had become MFC dominance and resurgent play. It seems impossible to believe but on a monthly basis, I'd estimate that 25% of games snatched losses to the MFC and hence the continued disappointment in such outcomes - across the past 2 years. Many observers (and of course Demon supporters) have seen this unfortunately occur. Our win/loss situation and percentage would otherwise be far higher than it is at present and allied to that, our current commendable but externally arranged ladder position at the hot end of the season. 

    Edited by Deemania since 56

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:39, DubDee said:

    like when we were paying $11 to miss the finals before round 23 last year?

    forgive my pessimism but it is well founded and based on a lifetime of sporting disapointment

    Each to their own. I've been suffering for 31 years myself. I've lived through all the recent histories false dawns. I can say with great confidence that we are finally a team worthy of playing finals and i'll continue to hang my hat on that until proven otherwise. 

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:39, DubDee said:

    like when we were paying $11 to miss the finals before round 23 last year?

    forgive my pessimism but it is well founded and based on a lifetime of sporting disapointment

    Well if you think things are never going to change then why bother?

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:43, loges said:

    Well if you think things are never going to change then why bother?

    I do think things will change, i'm just not sure when.  I will celebrate making finals when we get there. We are about 70% there at the moment and could easily miss

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:43, loges said:

    Well if you think things are never going to change then why bother?

    Its like battered wives syndrome I guess 

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      On 06/08/2018 at 04:29, Fifty-5 said:

    IMO if we can beat Sydney we just need one of Hawthorn d Geelong OR Adelaide d North to make it on 13

    Except Geelong can overtake us on percentage if we both finish on 13 wins.

    As I said earlier, I had Geelong beating GC and Freo by a combined 200 points, thus overtaking us on percentage.

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:41, loges said:

    I just think, if we miss finals, unleash the negative stuff then. Until then why not wish for the positive stuff to occur,ie a top 4 finish. As pro dee keeps saying, there are no super sides this year. Why not us ?

    I agree, I'm bored of being negative about my beloved football team when we are actually on the improve! Had plenty of time for that from 2007-2012. I don't get the mentality that seems to almost take delight that we might stuff it up, miss finals again etc

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    I'll tell you one thing for sure, I'm going to get a few more grey hairs in the next 3 weeks. 

    If we lose to Sydney I can't see us making finals, as it is the 'easiest' of the 3 games we have left. West Coast might be depleted, but the crowd and the umpires will get them the win, just as Port got the win over us. 

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:42, Deemania since 56 said:

    Of our games this year against those that are currently top 8 from which we lost those games, it must be remembered (and this is a reality situation) that several wins were taken from us - through umpire interference and astounding decisions in front of opposition goals. Game flows were regularly interrupted merely to disrupt what had become MFC dominance and resurgent play. It seems impossible to believe but on a monthly basis, I'd estimate that 25% of games snatched losses to the MFC and hence the continued disappointment in such outcomes - across the past 2 years. Many observers (and of course Demon supporters) have seen this unfortunately occur. Our win/loss situation and percentage would otherwise be far higher than it is at present and allied to that, our current commendable but externally arranged ladder position at the hot end of the season. 

    Love a conspiracy theory and I’m neither agreeing or disagreeing with you, but in the majoriy of the close games we’ve lost, we had the chance to win it but threw that opportunity away through silly mistakes/lack of composure, inaccurate goal kicking or poor kicking into our forward 50. Totally agree that farcical umpiring decisions have hurt us, but only because we allowed ourselves to be in a position to lose in the first place.

    For me, correcting the above will be the next step in our journey, as this year only Rich, Coll and Hawthorn were clearly better than us on the day. All the other games we had our chances and blew them. Richmond were very similar the years leading up to their premiership. The future is bright.

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    If we win 1 of the next 3 games we will finish 8th.

    If we win 2, we will finish 5th.

    We need to win all 3 to be top 4.

    If we lose all 3 we won't be playing finals.

    Note: This is all assuming the favourites win, which at this time of the year they usually do

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      On 06/08/2018 at 05:48, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Except Geelong can overtake us on percentage if we both finish on 13 wins.

    As I said earlier, I had Geelong beating GC and Freo by a combined 200 points, thus overtaking us on percentage.

    That's true but 200 points is a big IF

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      On 06/08/2018 at 06:17, Jones said:

    If we win 1 of the next 3 games we will finish 8th.

    If we win 2, we will finish 5th.

    We need to win all 3 to be top 4.

    If we lose all 3 we won't be playing finals.

    Note: This is all assuming the favourites win, which at this time of the year they usually do

    I like your confidence.  is the first scenario, who would we play first week of finals, pies/hawks?

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      On 06/08/2018 at 06:07, sisso said:

    I agree, I'm bored of being negative about my beloved football team when we are actually on the improve! Had plenty of time for that from 2007-2012. I don't get the mentality that seems to almost take delight that we might stuff it up, miss finals again etc

    Don’t get me wrong I think that’s a good attitude but I remember people having a go at the level headed people on here last year and telling us to enjoy it. The fact that it didn’t work out too well, I just couldn’t relate to that false joy sorry.

    Will believe when I see it!

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      On 06/08/2018 at 03:23, bobby1554 said:

    Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

     

    We were on similar odds heading into the last few rounds last year. We found a way to screw that up so I can’t take any guidance from them.

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      On 06/08/2018 at 06:50, DubDee said:

    I like your confidence.  is the first scenario, who would we play first week of finals, pies/hawks?

    With a 1 game win we could play the Cats!

    Assuming Geel with their next 3 games

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      On 06/08/2018 at 06:20, demonstone said:

    Me too, they're ideal for keeping small minds occupied.

    Yeah, I was thinking of you, demonstone. Glad you felt a need to respond. 

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