Run home to Finals - 2018

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Just now, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Problem is a couple of 4 goal losses to us and our percentage will drop right down.

Geelong are going to do some serious serious damage in the last fortnight down at the Cattery in terms of winning margin. I did the ladder predictor which has Geelong overtaking us on percentage with 2 100 point wins. 

They won't win both by that margin.  Just won't happen.  They might win one, but two in a row isn't in them.  I know Hawkins is in decent form, but they don't have the firepower like they used to.  10 goal wins is more realistic.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,547]

1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

Not really:

• North and Geelong win all 3
• 2 of Port, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Sydney win 2

OK i get your drift.

Yes can see North and Geelong winning all 3.

Can see Port beating WC and Ess at home.

Can see Collingwood easily winning 2.

Can see Hawthorn beating St Kilda and Sydney

Can see Sydney beating Melbourne and GWS

Under the above scenario, if we only beat GWS we play finals to knock them out provided they lose the next 2. If we beat WCE (but lose the other 2), remarkably we'd miss finals if all of the above results happened. 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,547]

4 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

They won't win both by that margin.  Just won't happen.  They might win one, but two in a row isn't in them.  I know Hawkins is in decent form, but they don't have the firepower like they used to.  10 goal wins is more realistic.

Hope you're right.

But Geez, neither side will be much of an opposition.

And can you imagine how non-competitive GC will be on the road in their final game of the year in hostile territory.

[highroller 112]

so I think there is no reason why we cant win all 3 and if we do then we take second/third place and all these other results don't matter - Like we go past GWS because we beat them and maybe the Eagles as well depending on how they go in their other games. We really need to win this week though to make sure of it. I really rate us in the WCE game and GWS at the G isn't impossible by any stretch. This thing could all go pear shaped but I think the media is overplaying our not beaten a top side stuff we have only played like 4-5 and 3 of those were games where we really should have won.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,547]

Just now, highroller said:

but I think the media is overplaying our not beaten a top side stuff we have only played like 4-5 and 3 of those were games where we really should have won.

We haven't beaten a top 8 side, but geez that Adelaide win at Adelaide Oval well and truly stacks up, considering we were 20 points down in the second quarter. And then Adelaide's big win on the weekend.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

6 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Hope you're right.

But Geez, neither side will be much of an opposition.

And can you imagine how non-competitive GC will be on the road in their final game of the year in hostile territory.

Very true.  I'm probably trying to be a little more optimistic than I should be, but 100 point drubbings are still difficult to achieve.  I could see them getting one over GC, but I'd expect Freo to put up more of a fight.

[—coach— 3,496]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We haven't beaten a top 8 side, but geez that Adelaide win at Adelaide Oval well and truly stacks up, considering we were 20 points down in the second quarter. And then Adelaide's big win on the weekend.

Yes we have, both north and Adelaide were top 8 when we beat them earlier in the season.

We haven’t beaten a CURRENT top 8 side though.

 

 

[sisso 2,627]

I think we can definitely win at least 2/3 none of our opponents are without their own issues:

Sydney - in average form, not kicking many goals, Buddy or bust

West Coast - No NicNat/Gaff and Kennedy or an underdone Kennedy....we have a better midfield than them with their outs

GWS - injuries and they don't have a good record at the MCG 

[highroller 112]

11 minutes ago, sisso said:

I think we can definitely win at least 2/3 none of our opponents are without their own issues:

Sydney - in average form, not kicking many goals, Buddy or bust

West Coast - No NicNat/Gaff and Kennedy or an underdone Kennedy....we have a better midfield than them with their outs

GWS - injuries and they don't have a good record at the MCG 

agreed - we have to use Frost on Franklin from the get go I reckon - he can at least compete in the one on ones and is quick enough.

By the time the WCE rolls around we should really only be down Lever and Viney and to a lesser extent Smith

[John Crow Batty 8,892]

The current top five teams have all lost one game out of their last five. Very hot at the pointy end of the ladder.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,508]

I want the scenario that has us finishing fourth and playing Richmond week 1.

[old55 23,860]

41 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

OK i get your drift.

Yes can see North and Geelong winning all 3.

Can see Port beating WC and Ess at home.

Can see Collingwood easily winning 2.

Can see Hawthorn beating St Kilda and Sydney

Can see Sydney beating Melbourne and GWS

Under the above scenario, if we only beat GWS we play finals to knock them out provided they lose the next 2. If we beat WCE (but lose the other 2), remarkably we'd miss finals if all of the above results happened. 

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3).  It's quite possible.

[The Chazz 4,077]

The thing for us for the remainder of the season is about W/L's, not %.  We win the same amount of games or better than the 9th placed team and our % will get us through.

[bobby1554 1,275]

Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

 

[DeezNuts 624]

I think we need 14 wins to make the finals based on everyone’s run home. Tough conditions. Vs Syd (Win) vs WC (win) vs GWS probably a loss.

thats my hope...

[Dee Zephyr 19,311]

9 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Clearly the folk over at Sportsbet dont suffer MFCSS. out to $7 to miss the eight, into $2.10 for top 4, and now $8 for the flag. Time to start believing me thinks.

 

As short as $1.75 on TAB for top 4. 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

13 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

$7 to miss the eight

Thats juicy

[old55 23,860]

28 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

It only takes 2 of those 4 "2 win" scenarios for us to miss out on 13 wins (along win North and Geelong winning all 3).  It's quite possible.

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

• North wins all 3
• Geelong wins all 3
• Hawthorn wins 2
• Collingwood wins 2
• Port wins 2
• Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

[Diamond_Jim 12,772]

4 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

• North wins all 3
• Geelong wins all 3
• Hawthorn wins 2
• Collingwood wins 2
• Port wins 2
• Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

[sisso 2,627]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

We've won 4 out of our last 5 and lost the other by a kick after the siren to a team that almost never loses at home....form is pretty good

[Diamond_Jim 12,772]

1 minute ago, sisso said:

We've won 4 out of our last 5 and lost the other by a kick after the siren to a team that almost never loses at home....form is pretty good

ah ... we've won one game against a contender by a couple of points ... the rest were against the also rans....nothing special about our form as has been said all year. In recent games against the contenders we in one instance could not and in the other barely defended a significant last quarter lead.

[loges 6,767]

16 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

wow ... not improbable scenarios any of those six.

Will be very hard to win 2 of the next three based on our post bye form.

So it could be good night Irene if we lose to the Swans given the odds of winning both the remaining games is very low.

We really have stuffed up this season. ?

All of those sides have had stuff ups during the year, that's why we're above them on the ladder. As far as defending a lead goes you have to play pretty well to get that lead in the first place.

[highroller 112]

35 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

For accuracy I believe we miss on 13 wins if ANY 5 of the following 6 occur:

• North wins all 3
• Geelong wins all 3
• Hawthorn wins 2
• Collingwood wins 2
• Port wins 2
• Sydney wins 2

Because that puts them on 14 wins.

the good news is some of those teams play each other making it harder for them - like Cats Hawks and Pies Power

[old55 23,860]

3 minutes ago, highroller said:

the good news is some of those teams play each other making it harder for them - like Cats Hawks and Pies Power

IMO if we can beat Sydney we just need one of Hawthorn d Geelong OR Adelaide d North to make it on 13

[sisso 2,627]

36 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

ah ... we've won one game against a contender by a couple of points ... the rest were against the also rans....nothing special about our form as has been said all year. In recent games against the contenders we in one instance could not and in the other barely defended a significant last quarter lead.

We must be the worst top 4 team with a percentage of 130 after 20 rounds in history then!