WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - JORDAN LEWIS

[TheoX 1,222]

4 hours ago, Macca said:

  We paid pick 23 for Vince and Lewis is a better player if we were to look at both their career's side by side.

Difference is Vince had just turned 28, Lewis turns 31 very early next season.

Edited October 15, 2016 by TheoX

[junk 342]

If we can get Lewis and Hibberd without giving up this year's 2nd rounder,I would say that's great. Just keep our fingers crossed.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,084]

4 hours ago, beelzebub said:

somewhat ironic perhaps, should Lewis play out a few seasons with us he'd be our next 300 gamer. Footy , a funny game

True. Lumumba's first game for us was his 200th. Weird world, the AFL ...

[Red and Bluebeard 2,084]

3 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Good Lord Red ! Stuie will have a convulsion if he sees info from the perverts thread being quoted in an evidentiary manner  on the wider board.

I am still getting over the shock of reading footy news on that thread ...

[Macca 16,967]

3 minutes ago, TheoX said:

Difference is Vince had just turned 28, Lewis turns 31 just after next season's start.

If we get Lewis for a 3rd round pick or better I'll be very surprised ... but you never know.  People are reading too much into the Sam Mitchell trade which is the outlier (or an aberration)

Look at it another way ... if the Sam Mitchell trade had never happened, would we honestly believe that we could secure Lewis with anything less than at least a 2nd round pick?  I understand that people are looking for a bargain but I'd rather keep things real. 

The Collingwood trade for Treloar (2 x pick 7's) was a fair one but for some reason that is an aberration too.  The draft is massively overrated and the facts, data, truths and outcomes back up my assertion that the draft is overrated.  It shouldn't even be a discussion point.

I don't and won't value draft picks like many others often do ... doesn't make me wrong either.  I'm also not interested in ditching the draft either - I just see it for what it is.  Half of all first round draft picks are virtual busts and the stars are scattered throughout every draft ... the "numbering system" that most want to believe in is majorly flawed. 

Vince was an excellent result for us at pick 23.  For proof, take a sample size of all the picks 21 through to 25 over a 10 year period.  The results are not great and at best are "mixed" ... Go to this thread if you want to do the exercise.  You're going to find a number of decent players in that pick range but you're also going to find any number of players who failed to make the grade.  And the bad news cannot be ignored.

I hate to spoil people's fun with the truth but the dreams that many have with draft choices often turn into nightmares.  We, as Melbourne supporters should all be well aware of that ... McLean,  Sylvia,  Morton,  Toumpas,  Trengove,  Cook,  Gysberts, Grimes,  Blease,  Maric,  Strauss,  Tapscott,  Molan.  How much proof do people need?  I would have thought by now that most people would have come to terms with drafting.  And that includes the clubs.

So a 2nd round draft pick for a player of Lewis' calibre is a good deal for us (in my opinion)  It might even turn out to be a great deal.

[Nasher 33,616]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

If we get Lewis for a 3rd round pick or better I'll be very surprised ... but you never know.  People are reading too much into the Sam Mitchell trade which is the outlier (or an aberration)

Look at it another way ... if the Sam Mitchell trade had never happened, would we honestly believe that we could secure Lewis with anything less than at least a 2nd round pick?  I understand that people are looking for a bargain but I'd rather keep things real. 

The Collingwood trade for Treloar (2 x pick 7's) was a fair one but for some reason that is an aberration too.  The draft is massively overrated and the facts, data, truths and outcomes back up my assertion that the draft is overrated.  It shouldn't even be a discussion point.

I don't and won't value draft picks like many others often do ... doesn't make me wrong either.  I'm also not interested in ditching the draft either - I just see it for what it is.  Half of all first round draft picks are virtual busts and the stars are scattered throughout every draft ... the "numbering system" that most want to believe in is majorly flawed. 

Vince was an excellent result for us at pick 23.  For proof, take a sample size of all the picks 21 through to 25 over a 10 year period.  The results are not great and at best are "mixed" ... Go to this thread if you want to do the exercise.  You're going to find a number of decent players in that pick range but you're also going to find any number of players who failed to make the grade.  And the bad news cannot be ignored.

I hate to spoil people's fun with the truth but the dreams that many have with draft choices often turn into nightmares.  We, as Melbourne supporters should all be well aware of that ... McLean,  Sylvia,  Morton,  Toumpas,  Trengove,  Cook,  Gysberts, Grimes,  Blease,  Maric,  Strauss,  Tapscott,  Molan.  How much proof do people need?  I would have thought by now that most people would have come to terms with drafting.  And that includes the clubs.

So a 2nd round draft pick for a player of Lewis' calibre is a good deal for us (in my opinion)  It might even turn out to be a great deal.

The reason I expect the price for Lewis to be low is his age. Anything better than a third round pick is giving Hawthorn a shot at another 10 year player in exchange for a player they have made no promise of retaining after 1 year.  

They've all but said they don't want him. 

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

If we get Lewis for a 3rd round pick or better I'll be very surprised ... but you never know.  People are reading too much into the Sam Mitchell trade which is the outlier (or an aberration)

Look at it another way ... if the Sam Mitchell trade had never happened, would we honestly believe that we could secure Lewis with anything less than at least a 2nd round pick?  I understand that people are looking for a bargain but I'd rather keep things real. 

The Collingwood trade for Treloar (2 x pick 7's) was a fair one but for some reason that is an aberration too.  The draft is massively overrated and the facts, data, truths and outcomes back up my assertion that the draft is overrated.  It shouldn't even be a discussion point.

I don't and won't value draft picks like many others often do ... doesn't make me wrong either.  I'm also not interested in ditching the draft either - I just see it for what it is.  Half of all first round draft picks are virtual busts and the stars are scattered throughout every draft ... the "numbering system" that most want to believe in is majorly flawed. 

Vince was an excellent result for us at pick 23.  For proof, take a sample size of all the picks 21 through to 25 over a 10 year period.  The results are not great and at best are "mixed" ... Go to this thread if you want to do the exercise.  You're going to find a number of decent players in that pick range but you're also going to find any number of players who failed to make the grade.  And the bad news cannot be ignored.

I hate to spoil people's fun with the truth but the dreams that many have with draft choices often turn into nightmares.  We, as Melbourne supporters should all be well aware of that ... McLean,  Sylvia,  Morton,  Toumpas,  Trengove,  Cook,  Gysberts, Grimes,  Blease,  Maric,  Strauss,  Tapscott,  Molan.  How much proof do people need?  I would have thought by now that most people would have come to terms with drafting.  And that includes the clubs.

So a 2nd round draft pick for a player of Lewis' calibre is a good deal for us (in my opinion)  It might even turn out to be a great deal.

I am glad you are not our trade manager Macca. No 31 yo in the league is worth a 2nd round draft pick and a decent player. Only elite players get new contracts in their 30s. Almost all players deteriorate quickly once in their 30s.  

Regardless, the deal was to be done with a 4th round pick. We may now end up paying a 3rd round.

[Ted Lasso 19,516]

2 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

I am glad you are not our trade manager Macca. No 31 yo in the league is worth a 2nd round draft pick and a decent player. Only elite players get new contracts in their 30s. Almost all players deteriorate quickly once in their 30s.  

Regardless, the deal was to be done with a 4th round pick. We may now end up paying a 3rd round.

i'd have no issues with handing over pick #47 for Lewis.

[Macca 16,967]

11 minutes ago, Nasher said:

The reason I expect the price for Lewis to be low is his age. Anything better than a third round pick is giving Hawthorn a shot at another 10 year player in exchange for a player they have made no promise of retaining after 1 year.  

They've all but said they don't want him. 

From Hawthorn's point of view they will want more than a 3rd round draft pick regardless of whether we want to believe that they don't want him.  They haven't actually said that they don't want Lewis.

I'm of the belief that their plan might have been to offload one of Sam Mitchell or Lewis and keep the other - Lewis & Mitchell probably knew all that and now Lewis has got his nose out of joint.  He's received a good offer and now he wants out.  It's nearly always about the money with these sort of things.

I suppose we could agree that it's either a 2nd rounder or a 3rd rounder.  It might be a 2nd rounder and a swap of other picks.

Don't get me wrong - if we get Lewis for a pick at around about pick 45 I'll be stoked.  We all should be if that happens.

Full disclosure - I really do rate Lewis very highly and always have.

Edited October 15, 2016 by Macca

[spirit of norm smith 16,451]

4 minutes ago, Abe said:

i'd have no issues with handing over pick #47 for Lewis.

Agreed. If we can grab Hibberd (2nd round pick in 17 draft) & Lewis, reactivate Melksham and add a fit Christian Salem, then its another big step forward. Plus draft 30, 62, 78 as bonuses.

[Macca 16,967]

10 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

Only elite players get new contracts in their 30s. Almost all players deteriorate quickly once in their 30s.  

Regardless, the deal was to be done with a 4th round pick. We may now end up paying a 3rd round.

And you know this for sure? How?  No riddles either - I'm not interested.

Lewis is an elite footballer and many people view him that way. A 4th round draft pick is a freebee in my eyes so if we got Lewis for a 4th rounder, then we'd be getting him for nothing as far as I'm concerned.

This argument is about the value of draft picks - you obviously rate draft picks higher than I ever would.  Many only want to know about the good results from drafting and conveniently put aside all the bad results as if it's just the recruiters getting it wrong on a constant basis.  Which is a nonsense. 

Hey, if it ends up as a 3rd round draft pick then I'll be wrong ... but the transaction may still be wrong. 

 

[Ted Lasso 19,516]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

And you know this for sure? How?  No riddles either - I'm not interested.

Lewis is an elite footballer and many people view him that way. A 4th round draft pick is a freebee in my eyes so if we got Lewis for a 4th rounder, then we'd be getting him for nothing as far as I'm concerned.

This argument is about the value of draft picks - you obviously rate draft picks higher than I ever would.  Many only want to know about the good results from drafting and conveniently put aside all the bad results as if it's just the recruiters getting it wrong on a constant basis.  Which is a nonsense. 

Hey, if it ends up as a 3rd round draft pick then I'll be wrong ... but the transaction may still be wrong. 

 

The other factor that i believe comes into this is the way they're currently being viewed in the public, plenty of Hawks supporters feel they did the wrong thing by Sam Mitchell, and are quite annoyed with how this Lewis situation sits, i reckon they owe it to him and their supporters to restore some of the good will and do the right thing by a Champion player. 

i think pick 47 is more than fair, especially when you consider he's an unrestricted free agent next year who doesn't want to be there, the Hawks simply need to understand there is a huge chance they could lose him for nothing as well as another legend of the club leave under questionable circumstances if they don't come to the party with this.

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

12 minutes ago, Macca said:

And you know this for sure? How?  No riddles either - I'm not interested.

Lewis is an elite footballer and many people view him that way. A 4th round draft pick is a freebee in my eyes so if we got Lewis for a 4th rounder, then we'd be getting him for nothing as far as I'm concerned.

This argument is about the value of draft picks - you obviously rate draft picks higher than I ever would.  Many only want to know about the good results from drafting and conveniently put aside all the bad results as if it's just the recruiters getting it wrong on a constant basis.  Which is a nonsense. 

Hey, if it ends up as a 3rd round draft pick then I'll be wrong ... but the transaction may still be wrong. 

 

Yes I know that for sure.

[Ted Lasso 19,516]

5 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

Yes I know that for sure.

are you hearing anything regarding the other big rumour of the day GNF?

[FireInTheBennelly 4,072]

1 minute ago, Abe said:

are you hearing anything regarding the other big rumour of the day GNF?

Good question, but you have decent form in this space as well. Are you hearing anything on that one?

[Macca 16,967]

14 minutes ago, Abe said:

The other factor that i believe comes into this is the way they're currently being viewed in the public, plenty of Hawks supporters feel they did the wrong thing by Sam Mitchell, and are quite annoyed with how this Lewis situation sits, i reckon they owe it to him and their supporters to restore some of the good will and do the right thing by a Champion player. 

i think pick 47 is more than fair, especially when you consider he's an unrestricted free agent next year who doesn't want to be there, the Hawks simply need to understand there is a huge chance they could lose him for nothing as well as another legend of the club leave under questionable circumstances if they don't come to the party with this.

See I see pick 47 as a highway to a probable bust.  And that's how the Hawks may see it (and their fans)  If I was doing the transaction I'd want him for pick 89 but I'm not doing the transaction.  GNF is jumping at shadows in that regard.

I'm looking at the transaction as a neutral might with zero emotion.

We all view things differently ... most of all I like the nasty side of Lewis.  His value to our club would be enormous.  Pick 47 for Lewis would be an absolute steal.   And if we got him for that pick and he played great footy for us for say, 3 years, many would look back and believe we got an absolute bargain.  Would we not?

Their fans won't want to give him away for chump change either - they've already copped that with Sam Mitchell.   Do you know any Hawk fans?  I know plenty and for them to lose him for pick 47 would be abhorrent in their eyes. 

 

[Macca 16,967]

1 hour ago, Grand New Flag said:

I am glad you are not our trade manager Macca.

Well that's not likely for any of us

Why would you jump to the conclusion that my views are what they are as if I was the trade manager?  You're jumping at shadows and you assume too much.   If I was the trade manager, I'd have my demon hat on and drive a hard bargain.

Rightly, I'm looking at the transaction as a neutral would.  When it comes to all sport, I'm a pragmatist.  So, therefore, I'm always going to look at things from both sides. 

Is that too difficult for you to understand?

 

 

[Ted Lasso 19,516]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

See I see pick 47 as a highway to a probable bust.  And that's how the Hawks may see it (and their fans)  If I was doing the transaction I'd want him for pick 89 but I'm not doing the transaction.  GNF is jumping at shadows in that regard.

I'm looking at the transaction as a neutral might with zero emotion.

We all view things differently ... most of all I like the nasty side of Lewis.  His value to our club would be enormous.  Pick 47 for Lewis would be an absolute steal.   And if we got him for that pick and he played great footy for us for say, 3 years, many would look back and believe we got an absolute bargain.  Would we not?

Their fans won't want to give him away for chump change either - they've already copped that with Sam Mitchell.   Do you know any Hawk fans?  I know plenty and for them to lose him for pick 47 would be abhorrent in their eyes. 

 

I see where you're coming from, but i'd be staggered if Hawthorn realistically thought they were going to get any more than pick 47 for a 30 year old that wants to move and is a legend of their club. 

i reckon they owe it to him to facilitate a deal in this case, and if they're asking for pick number 29 it's simply not going to happen in my opinion.

Hawthorn run the risk of damaging their culture if they continue to treat legends of their club poorly.

[Macca 16,967]

Just now, Abe said:

I see where you're coming from, but i'd be staggered if Hawthorn realistically thought they were going to get any more than pick 47 for a 30 year old that wants to move and is a legend of their club. 

i reckon they owe it to him to facilitate a deal in this case, and if they're asking for pick number 29 it's simply not going to happen in my opinion.

Hawthorn run the risk of damaging their culture if they continue to treat legends of their club poorly.

It would be better for their culture if they managed to hold onto Lewis or at least played hard-ball on the trade.  Most Hawk fans do not want to lose Lewis.  Unless you think they do?

Besides all that, another club might jump in with a better offer for the Hawks and that other club might offer Lewis an even better deal.  Or it could be multiple clubs with the same idea. 

Readily available A grade footballers are in short supply. 

He is contracted for another year at Hawthorn and the Hawks might stand on principle - they're entitled to do that.  The deal hasn't been done yet Abe.  

[Red and Blue Flame 187]

Call my cynical - anyone else worried by Pickering's comments today? News reporting tonight Lewis is considering decision this weekend. 

 

[Macca 16,967]

GWS drove a hard bargain with the Pies over Treloar ... in my opinion, they drove that hard bargain because they of all clubs, know about the vagaries of drafting.  They've had numerous first round picks and many of those picks have not or are not bearing fruit.

Not enough has been said about how a fledgling club like the Giants managed to eke out 2 pick 7's from an established club like Collingwood.  That transaction is an outlier but did the Pies get dudded?

In terms of what should happen, no, but in terms of what normally happens, yes, they did get dudded.

In comparison, a similar player to Treloar in Tom Mitchell goes for pick 14 alone.  Are there other factors that we don't know about?

[Ted Lasso 19,516]

2 minutes ago, Red and Blue Flame said:

Call my cynical - anyone else worried by Pickering's comments today? News reporting tonight Lewis is considering decision this weekend. 

 

Not at all mate, i am very confident this deal will get done and get done at a good price trade wise.

[DemonOX 8,791]

Does anyone know when they think the deal will be done by if it gets done? Monday or will it go right up to Thurs???

On an unrelated note I really hate the size of a the iPhone keyboard it's so fartin small for my delicate hands it pizzes me off. Anyway carry on. 

[Adam The God 30,249]

32 minutes ago, DemonOX said:

Does anyone know when they think the deal will be done by if it gets done? Monday or will it go right up to Thurs???

On an unrelated note I really hate the size of a the iPhone keyboard it's so fartin small for my delicate hands it pizzes me off. Anyway carry on. 

We'll be trying to get this deal done ASAP, as it may well be holding up other deals that we want to do now. The Hibberd one in particular.

[Deestroy All 14,266]

I just had coffee with Flamingdees contact. Said Jordan Lewis might be a Demon in 17. 

Stay tuned.