The Top 2

[DubDee 24,485]

With all the drug talk I thought getting back to footy would be nice

Has there ever been a year where the top 2 is so far ahead of the rest? Watching the Swans and Hawks play against us or saints- its like we are playing a different game. Guys like Tom Mitchell not even getting a game at swans that would be in our top 3 mids.

There could be sruprises but I think we can say:

• there is no chance either team will be out of the top 4 - even with multiple injuried which Hawks had last year
• they will most likely be the top 2 teams
• they will be able to rest players aganist poorer teams

So my question is, am I right in thinking that this is unusually discrepant to other seasons?

is it healthy to already know who is the top 2 teams will be at seasons end? I personally dont see Port getting in the top 2 and freo may fall

Is there any chance these teams will fall down in the next few years - I honestly cant see the Swans being out of the top 2 for years, maybe the hawks a little with Mitchell/Hodge retiring soon

Can anyone catch them?

Should there be a trophy for 3rd place

I dont particularly want this thread to be about equalisation and free agency (would prefer to talk footy rather than money - but knock yourselves out) but it so quickly becoming like the EPL it is disturbing

Am I being irrational or other feel the same?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,217]

Port is right up there.

Danger to the Hawks. Hawks target certain experienced players but they also have some great young players coming through.

[dpositive 1,653]

Depends what drug regimes are followed????

Sorry

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

With all the drug talk I thought getting back to footy would be nice

Has there ever been a year where the top 2 is so far ahead of the rest? Watching the Swans and Hawks play against us or saints- its like we are playing a different game. Guys like Tom Mitchell not even getting a game at swans that would be in our top 3 mids.

There could be sruprises but I think we can say:

• there is no chance either team will be out of the top 4 - even with multiple injuried which Hawks had last year
• they will most likely be the top 2 teams
• they will be able to rest players aganist poorer teams

So my question is, am I right in thinking that this is unusually discrepant to other seasons?

is it healthy to already know who is the top 2 teams will be at seasons end? I personally dont see Port getting in the top 2 and freo may fall

Is there any chance these teams will fall down in the next few years - I honestly cant see the Swans being out of the top 2 for years, maybe the hawks a little with Mitchell/Hodge retiring soon

Can anyone catch them?

Should there be a trophy for 3rd place

I dont particularly want this thread to be about equalisation and free agency (would prefer to talk footy rather than money - but knock yourselves out) but it so quickly becoming like the EPL it is disturbing

Am I being irrational or other feel the same?

It's a good point, I think there is a clear top two but as others have mentioned Port Adelaide, Geelong (with Clark fit) and maybe Fremantle will cause some discomfort.

Some of the football that Hawthorn payed last year is the best I have ever seen. If only we had the same luck with our top draft picks as they did with theirs (or the salary cap of Sydney).

Edited March 31, 2015 by Clint Bizkit

[DeeSpencer 24,798]

I've still got it as a race in 3 for the premiership, but I'm hoping the seasons is full of enough twists and turns to make it interesting:

Looking at the swans: Tippett has a bung knee. Malceski left to the Gold Coast. Goodes should've retired last year. Richards and Grundy are declining. Their starting outside midfielders are Jetta (who went badly missing) Cunningham and Jake Lloyd and with Goodes declining and McGlynn moving to the midfield they lack a really potent goal kicker to go with Franklin and Tippett. They will still have some of the best ball winning mids in the comp and plenty of depth coming up like Mitchell and Zak Jones. They will still be there at the business end of the season but I can't see Sydney being a dominant top 2 team.

Hawthorn will be dominant. They've only gotten stronger with last seasons additions. They now have almost unprecedented level of depth in most positions. The hope is that as Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Hale slow down then so do the Hawks. Unfortunately for the competition I think that won't happen next year.

I think you should be more confident about Port. With Ryder they now have the tall forwards/ruck, small forwards and midfield depth to match it with Hawthorn and Sydney. Their backline is underrated as well but I think it's got the ability just not the depth.

After those 3 it's about who else can get to top 4 and whether anyone can knock one of those 3 out for at least some part of the season.

Freo and Geelong will be keeping everyone honest. Essendon with the ASADA stuff behind them, Richmond and North should all push up, hopefully above the likes of Freo and Geel. I can't see them winning the flag but if they keep the top 3 honest and unsettle their seasons then that's a good thing. Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane are 3 teams who might be able to upset a top 3 side on their day. Although West Coast aren't off to a good start and I don't think Brisbane will make the 8.

The next best threats for actually winning a flag are Gold Coast and GWS. Gold coast should make the 8 this year and GWS shouldn't be too far behind them. In a couple of years they'll be top 4 and probably Hawthorn and Sydney will be declining. What I really do hope is we get wholesale change in positioning as the new order takes over. I'd hate nothing more than a top 5 of Port, GC, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney. Once teams start to drop out they should drop out properly and new teams on the way up should take over.

[CBDees 3,165]

I've still got it as a race in 3 for the premiership, but I'm hoping the seasons is full of enough twists and turns to make it interesting:

Looking at the swans: Tippett has a bung knee. Malceski left to the Gold Coast. Goodes should've retired last year. Richards and Grundy are declining. Their starting outside midfielders are Jetta (who went badly missing) Cunningham and Jake Lloyd and with Goodes declining and McGlynn moving to the midfield they lack a really potent goal kicker to go with Franklin and Tippett. They will still have some of the best ball winning mids in the comp and plenty of depth coming up like Mitchell and Zak Jones. They will still be there at the business end of the season but I can't see Sydney being a dominant top 2 team.

Hawthorn will be dominant. They've only gotten stronger with last seasons additions. They now have almost unprecedented level of depth in most positions. The hope is that as Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Hale slow down then so do the Hawks. Unfortunately for the competition I think that won't happen next year.

I think you should be more confident about Port. With Ryder they now have the tall forwards/ruck, small forwards and midfield depth to match it with Hawthorn and Sydney. Their backline is underrated as well but I think it's got the ability just not the depth.

After those 3 it's about who else can get to top 4 and whether anyone can knock one of those 3 out for at least some part of the season.

Freo and Geelong will be keeping everyone honest. Essendon with the ASADA stuff behind them, Richmond and North should all push up, hopefully above the likes of Freo and Geel. I can't see them winning the flag but if they keep the top 3 honest and unsettle their seasons then that's a good thing. Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane are 3 teams who might be able to upset a top 3 side on their day. Although West Coast aren't off to a good start and I don't think Brisbane will make the 8.

The next best threats for actually winning a flag are Gold Coast and GWS. Gold coast should make the 8 this year and GWS shouldn't be too far behind them. In a couple of years they'll be top 4 and probably Hawthorn and Sydney will be declining. What I really do hope is we get wholesale change in positioning as the new order takes over. I'd hate nothing more than a top 5 of Port, GC, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney. Once teams start to drop out they should drop out properly and new teams on the way up should take over.

Nice to see that you have mentioned most sides in your analysis apart from five of the Melbourne-based teams, but particularly pleasing to see that you have completely discounted both Carlton and Collingwood as not being worthy of comment!

[The Chazz 4,077]

Port should be quite some distance in front of Sydney this year.

I actually think the Top 2 are quite predictable (Hawthorn and Port). I'm not sure if 3rd and 4th are easy to pick - will depend on the luck some sides have. For example, I see both North and Essendon (especially now) being in a position to challenge for the Top 4, but it's going to take a pretty flawless season from both to go ahead of Sydney, Geelong and Freo.

[rjay 24,616]

I don't think the top 2 is a lock. The Hawks do have an ageing list and I think they pinched a flag last year, might do it again but age/injury won't be so easily covered this year.

Swans to me are still a bit unsettled, they will be up there but no guarantee for top 2.

Port have problems if they get injuries to key position players, it is still a weakness. A good run with injury and they will be a real contender.

Don't write off Freo or North just yet although both these teams have really important players the wrong side of 30. Injury again could derail them.

The Cats...well can they get a full season from Clark? should expect a few retirements at the end of the year, do they have enough in the tank.

Interesting as a look back at what I've just written, most of the contenders with the exception of Port have an ageing list. Injury will settle the top sides.

Hate to say this but Essendon unless WADA come down of them are a real outside chance.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Hawks and Port are my top 2, but Syd will be sitting right on Ports arse, I do not rate Freo at all, I think 4th and below is up in the air.

[DubDee 24,485]

Port should be quite some distance in front of Sydney this year.

I actually think the Top 2 are quite predictable (Hawthorn and Port). I'm not sure if 3rd and 4th are easy to pick - will depend on the luck some sides have. For example, I see both North and Essendon (especially now) being in a position to challenge for the Top 4, but it's going to take a pretty flawless season from both to go ahead of Sydney, Geelong and Freo.

why do you think Sydney will slide? I expect them to be better than last year. A fit Tippett and Franklin should get 150 goals alone

they have no injuries and them young midfield is terrific. Maabe the ruck is their only weakness

I have them significantly in front of Port. last year sydney were 5 spots and 12 pts ahead of them

[DubDee 24,485]

I've still got it as a race in 3 for the premiership, but I'm hoping the seasons is full of enough twists and turns to make it interesting:

Looking at the swans: Tippett has a bung knee. Malceski left to the Gold Coast. Goodes should've retired last year. Richards and Grundy are declining. Their starting outside midfielders are Jetta (who went badly missing) Cunningham and Jake Lloyd and with Goodes declining and McGlynn moving to the midfield they lack a really potent goal kicker to go with Franklin and Tippett. They will still have some of the best ball winning mids in the comp and plenty of depth coming up like Mitchell and Zak Jones. They will still be there at the business end of the season but I can't see Sydney being a dominant top 2 team.

Hawthorn will be dominant. They've only gotten stronger with last seasons additions. They now have almost unprecedented level of depth in most positions. The hope is that as Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Lake, Gibson, Hale slow down then so do the Hawks. Unfortunately for the competition I think that won't happen next year.

I think you should be more confident about Port. With Ryder they now have the tall forwards/ruck, small forwards and midfield depth to match it with Hawthorn and Sydney. Their backline is underrated as well but I think it's got the ability just not the depth.

After those 3 it's about who else can get to top 4 and whether anyone can knock one of those 3 out for at least some part of the season.

Freo and Geelong will be keeping everyone honest. Essendon with the ASADA stuff behind them, Richmond and North should all push up, hopefully above the likes of Freo and Geel. I can't see them winning the flag but if they keep the top 3 honest and unsettle their seasons then that's a good thing. Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane are 3 teams who might be able to upset a top 3 side on their day. Although West Coast aren't off to a good start and I don't think Brisbane will make the 8.

The next best threats for actually winning a flag are Gold Coast and GWS. Gold coast should make the 8 this year and GWS shouldn't be too far behind them. In a couple of years they'll be top 4 and probably Hawthorn and Sydney will be declining. What I really do hope is we get wholesale change in positioning as the new order takes over. I'd hate nothing more than a top 5 of Port, GC, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney. Once teams start to drop out they should drop out properly and new teams on the way up should take over.

good analysis.

Ryder is a massive get for port and they will be top 4 id say. but i dont rate thyem as highly as most. Key position wise - I think the Hawks and Swans have them covered

in general though, I reckon there usually is more of a vibe of there are ~6 teams in it and maybe one standout. I hope it is not a trend that 15 teams are playing for pride before the season has even staeted

[Moonshadow 17,558]

Port will be in the mix for GF spot this year imo. It would be great to see a couple of smokeys rise to the challenge. Maybe Brisbane, as Beams and Christiansen are very good gets.

[DeeSpencer 24,798]

Nice to see that you have mentioned most sides in your analysis apart from five of the Melbourne-based teams, but particularly pleasing to see that you have completely discounted both Carlton and Collingwood as not being worthy of comment!

I've got the ladder break down as:

Top 3 - Haw, Port, Sydney

Next tier - Freo, Ess, Geel, North

Then - Gold Coast, Rich, Adel

Then - Bris, WC, GWS

Lastly - Coll, Carl, Dogs, Melb, Saints

What I'm hoping for is that we have enough games that are close and don't go to plan that sees enough mixing of the brackets. If the teams at the bottom can win 6 games and the teams at the top lose 6 games then at least when it comes to finals it won't be as predictable as it has been the last few years.

[rjay 24,616]

I've got the ladder break down as:

Top 3 - Haw, Port, Sydney

Next tier - Freo, Ess, Geel, North

Then - Gold Coast, Rich, Adel

Then - Bris, WC, GWS

Lastly - Coll, Carl, Dogs, Melb, Saints

What I'm hoping for is that we have enough games that are close and don't go to plan that sees enough mixing of the brackets. If the teams at the bottom can win 6 games and the teams at the top lose 6 games then at least when it comes to finals it won't be as predictable as it has been the last few years.

I think it's a pretty good summation at this stage of the year 'George', I don't rate Richmond as highly and am not convinced with Adelaide but I can see your logic here.

Now lets hope for the unexpected to happen to tip things upside down and make things a bit more interesting.

[The Chazz 4,077]

why do you think Sydney will slide? I expect them to be better than last year. A fit Tippett and Franklin should get 150 goals alone

they have no injuries and them young midfield is terrific. Maabe the ruck is their only weakness

I have them significantly in front of Port. last year sydney were 5 spots and 12 pts ahead of them

Just think that the Power have more players that can take a step up, as opposed to Sydney's core group being at their ceiling.

I also question last year's grand final performance by the Swans. They were meant to win that flag. Why didn't they? What impact will that have on them this year? How can that group turn it around?

I've got the ladder break down as:

Top 3 - Haw, Port, Sydney

Next tier - Freo, Ess, Geel, North

Then - Gold Coast, Rich, Adel

Then - Bris, WC, GWS

Lastly - Coll, Carl, Dogs, Melb, Saints

What I'm hoping for is that we have enough games that are close and don't go to plan that sees enough mixing of the brackets. If the teams at the bottom can win 6 games and the teams at the top lose 6 games then at least when it comes to finals it won't be as predictable as it has been the last few years.

This is very close to my thinking, but I have Brisbane higher, probably replacing one of Richmond or Adelaide in that group. Wouldn't be surprised to see Geelong drop out of that group.

[mo64 5,509]

They will still have some of the best ball winning mids in the comp and plenty of depth coming up like Mitchell and Zak Jones. They will still be there at the business end of the season but I can't see Sydney being a dominant top 2 team.

By all reports, Heeney is also ready to go.

[KingDingAling 3,740]

Sydney, Hawthorn or Port.

Whoever is strong at the end of last year and is able to have a free hit with the free agents.

So probably Port Vs Hawks.

Next year we'll see Geelong pick up Dangerfield for no loss of picks.

So of course these top sides are getting stronger.

The bottom sides aren't whinging yet because they are getting picks if they lose top players.

They haven't realised the top sides are getting stronger, the bottom sides will never break into the top 4.

Port have just clouded everyones judgment because they did this - but had a raft of quality talent sitting on their list already.

Under the current free agency set up, I could only see us breaking into the top 4 in the next 10 years - if we land a quality free agent like Dangerfield.
But what quality free agents of his ilk/age want to come and play for a club like MFC.

Perhaps the AFL needs to drop the age of free agency and have those players available to the bottom 8.

And the older free agents over that age available to everyone. It isn't overly hard to work out.

I'd like to see Al Clarkson take over as CEO of the AFL once he has retired. Gil is a smart guy, but he doesn't see the broad picture, nor does he has a vision.

[Maple Demon 449]

Definitely won't include us. Think that ship is light years away, unfortunately.