THE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES

[Demonland 71,629]

THE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES by JVM

 

One of the common practices when writing up previews of games is to go back to the last time the competing teams met each other but in the case of games between Melbourne and Hawthorn, there’s been such a sameness of late from one year to another that one need hardly bother. Apart from a game played in the wet at the MCG near the end of the 2010 season (a 21 point loss that some might have described as “gallant”), most of the others have been severe blowouts.

 

When the two teams last met it was a nine goal win to the Hawks but my impression of that game was that on top of being totally dominant for most of the game, they were being charitable and never got out of second gear as they strangled a second rate opposition that was heading in the direction of a steep cliff with a steep and perilous descent awaiting (of course, that was still six days away). The details of that last encounter can be seen below.

 

But the thing that I want to discuss here is a game that produced a happier outcome for the Demons almost six years ago to the day. It was also a Friday night game played at the MCG in the autumn and it was the last time Melbourne beat Hawthorn. The score was 20.16.136 to 9.7.61.

 

It need not be said that both teams had different line ups at the time. Melbourne’s was:-

 

Backs Bate Carroll Whelan

Half backs Yze Rivers Bell

Centreline Green Bruce McLean

Half forwards Robertson Miller Davey

Forwards Jamar Neitz Pickett

Followers White Moloney Johnstone

Interchange Bartram Dunn Godfrey McDonald

Emergencies C Johnson Holland Read

 

Hawthorn came in with this line up:

 

Backs Jacobs Dawson Sewell

Half backs Smith Roughead Guerra

Centreline Bateman Mitchell Vandenberg

Half forwards Clarke Boyle Brown

Forwards Dixon Williams Miller

Followers Everitt Hodge Crawford

Interchange Birchall Campbell Kane Ladson

Emergencies Lewis Ries Taylor

 

The game was an absolute massacre. The Hawks tried to unsettle the Demons with their aggression but Byron Pickett had some ideas of his own.

 

Once the initial heat dies down, it was the experience of Melbourne that told. Scoop Junior wrote in his report for Demonland that the Demon midfield “dominated when the game opened up to the outside. Through superior class, skill and deeper rotations, the Demons made Hawthorn look second rate at times. Brock McLean and James McDonald were keys in tight, winning plenty of ball at the stoppages, while Cameron Bruce, Travis Johnstone and Brent Moloney provided great drive.” David Neitz who always produced the goods against the Hawks booted six goals and Melbourne was untroubled to record another win and to establish its place in the top eight after opening the season with three defeats. The team made the finals that year, beat St. Kilda in an elimination final and ended up the best performed of the Victorian clubs. On the other hand, Hawthorn finished well of the pace.

 

We all know what happens next – the reversal of fortunes. The Hawks, with a young emerging side rose swiftly up the ladder in 2007 and by 2008 had pulled off the seemingly impossible – a premiership well ahead of time. The Demons, with an older more experienced side fell into a heap. By the end of 2007 it was well inside the bottom quartile of the competition, flattered by a final round win against a tanking Carlton. A win that would prove costly at a future time. The collapse was complete twelve months later.

 

And so the teams meet again on a Friday night in autumn with the Hawks at their peak and the Demons still languishing. It would seem that it’s almost an unfair contest but, as history showed back then, situations and tiems can change rapidly. Is it possible that waiting in the wings for Melbourne there’s a potential Buddy or Cyril who can lift the team to great heights? Time will tell.

 

THE GAME Melbourne v Hawthorn at the MCG Friday 11 May 2012 at 7.50 pm.

 

HEAD TO HEAD

 

Overall Melbourne 74 wins Hawthorn 80 wins

 

At MCG Melbourne 35 wins Hawthorn 39 wins

 

Since 2000 Melbourne 5 wins Hawthorn 14 wins

 

The Coaches Neeld 0 wins Clarkson 0 wins

 

MEDIA

 

TV – Fox Footy Channel, Channel 7 7:30 pm (live)

 

RADIO – SEN ABC774 3AW Triple M

 

THE BETTING Melbourne $13.00 to win Hawthorn $1.03 to win.

 

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

 

Hawthorn 20.12.132 defeated Melbourne 12.6.78 in Round 18, 2011 at the MCG

 

It was all pretty much routine fare for a Melbourne v Hawthorn encounter of late. The Hawks overpowered the Demons early and floated away to the easiest of wins. Buddy kicked his five, Cyril got a few, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis were unstoppable in the midfield and Melbourne was fairly innocuous.

 

Brad Green flew the flag with four goals (but wasn’t so convincing the next day On the Couch) and Jeremy Howe undelined his potential with a few. Stef Martin and Nathan Jones did well and the rest … pffft!

 

THE TEAMS

 

MELBOURNE

 

Backs James Frawley Jared Rivers Clint Bartram

Half backs Jack Grimes Colin Garland Cale Morton

Centreline Ricky Petterd Brent Moloney Jack Trengove

Half forwards Nathan Jones Mitch Clark Jamie Bennell

Forwards Jeremy Howe Colin Sylvia Aaron Davey

Followers Mark Jamar James Magner Jordie McKenzie

Interchange Rohan Bail Matthew Bate Jack Fitzpatrick  Tom McDonald

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Joel Macdonald Luke Tapscott

In Jamie Bennell Jack Fitzpatrick Ricky Petterd 

Out Lynden Dunn James Sellar (calf) Luke Tapscott

HAWTHORN

Backs Benjamin Stratton Stephen Gilham Brent Guerra

Half backs Matt Suckling Ryan Schoenmakers Grant Birchall

Centreline Jordan Lewis Sam Mitchell Brendan Whitecross

Half forwards Luke Breust Lance Franklin Isaac Smith

Forwards Michael Osborne Jarryd Roughead Cyril Rioli

Followers David Hale Shaun Burgoyne Brad Sewell

Interchange Paul Puopolo Shane Savage Liam Shiels Clinton Young 

Emergencies Kyle Cheney Bradley Hill Broc McCauley

In Stephen Gilham Clinton Young

Out Jarrad Boumann Luke Hodge (knee)

Umpires B Rosebury R Findlay J Bannister

AT BEST

I read in one of the media previews of the game the comment that "Melbourne will need to be at its best to upset Hawthorn on Friday night."

No kidding?

The Hawks are going into the game as red hot favourite to win despite the fact that they're not travelling as well as might have been expected this season, remembering that on the eve of the season they were highly fancied among many of the experts to win this year's flag.

And they might still do that after showing a dramatic lift in tempo last week against their bitter rivals, the Saints, who have always had the wood on them, particularly in their Saturday night fixtures. Last week, Hawthorn was particularly ruthless against St. Kilda with Cyril Rioli kicking six goals and Buddy Franklin returning five. The Hawks will be eager to not only win the four points but also to build up percentage given the tightness of the competition and their unflattering start of only two wins in the first five games. 

Melbourne already has nightmares about its recent record against this opposition and these are not confined to thoughts of their regular season reminiscences alone. These teams often meet in the pre season and the outcomes have been equally disasterous with this year proving no exception. Way back in February, the Demons gave Mark Neeld his first win in what remotely resembled a game of football when they bested the Magpies in a tightly fought NAB Cup game at Etihad Stadium. Hopes were high among the Demon faithful that this year was truly going to be something different under the new coaching regime. The midfield was strong in the contest for the ball, the defence stood up and the forward line functioned as perfectly as one could expect in the month of February.

A week later and all that was shattered. The team has barely come close to looking like a cohesive unit in the past three months apart from some momentary glimmers in recent weeks but, to be competitive against the might of Hawthorn?

I think not.

There is so little for one to hang the hat on as the team goes into battle against an implacable foe. Despite the comment about needing to be at its best to beat them, there has to be a serious doubt about whether the team can even come close to the Hawks at this stage of its development. 

Despite the fact that Melbourne has been showing improvement of late and continues to do well in winning contested possession, it still legs well below its opponents on a week to week basis in winning the uncontested football. At least this week it appears to have acted at selection to address its lack of leg speed which is regarded as one of the factors in explaining this deficiency but that alone will not be enough.

Hawthorn to win by 47 points.

[hardtack 10,517]

Saw an AFL tweet stating that Clarkson is unsure about starting Luke Hodge who is being visited by his old friend General Soreness.

He said they will probably select him, but that they are not taking any chances... which in my mind at least, is code for, he won't be playing.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

According to SEN Jack Watts did enough at Casey to earn a call-up for the Hawks game and will play tomorrow. Not sure I agree with this another week at Casey might have been the go. I hope they decide to leave him in the forward 50 with Clark instead of playing between the arcs. The kid can kick goals he just needs time to settle down there.

[H_T 3,043]

Saw an AFL tweet stating that Clarkson is unsure about starting Luke Hodge who is being visited by his old friend General Soreness.

He said they will probably select him, but that they are not taking any chances... which in my mind at least, is code for, he won't be playing.

I'm pretty sure he received a cork last week against Saints which they tried nearly all night to work on. He would have been feeling it all week. He came back on in the last qtr.

[The Third Eye 259]

The whole business becomes a joke when these teams like Hawthorn and Carlton rest their players against the more lowly sides. Surely, if there's ever an upset result in one of these games, the club resting players is going to be accused of draft tampering?

[Sir Why You Little 36,987]

According to SEN Jack Watts did enough at Casey to earn a call-up for the Hawks game and will play tomorrow. Not sure I agree with this another week at Casey might have been the go. I hope they decide to leave him in the forward 50 with Clark instead of playing between the arcs. The kid can kick goals he just needs time to settle down there.

I would be suprised if he is recalled after one week. I would prefer he spent another 2-3 weeks in the two's. Long term development is more important.

[hardtack 10,517]

I would be suprised if he is recalled after one week. I would prefer he spent another 2-3 weeks in the two's. Long term development is more important.

Well, with two weeks off after this weekend, I don't think that will work. I would think he will remain at Casey this week and come back into the side next week, as I doubt they will want him being idle for two weeks.

[Dr. Mubutu 831]

I would be suprised if he is recalled after one week. I would prefer he spent another 2-3 weeks in the two's. Long term development is more important.

That depends. Did he meet the expectations of the coaches? Not having seen the match, I can't tell if his effort, pressure and workrate were where they need to be. But if they were, surely it'd be good for his long-term development if he was rewarded for doing these things?

[Disco Demons 92]

I would play defender Tom McDonald on Buddy. He has had big assignments in the past few weeks and done well. Deserves a chance.

Frees up Frawley and Grimes for clearing the ball out of the backline and assiting Tom when required..

[greenmachine 21]

Need to play man on man with the Hawks

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

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Edited May 10, 2012 by Ascobar

[DemonDave 1,089]

FFS greenmachine, noone can ever see the images in your sig. Sorry had to get that out.

I saw the whole Casey game last week, and Watts did little more than coast. Which for a player of his ability

happens to produce 4 goals and 20 possies. I'd give him one more week to really get the urgency and hunger

to want to come back in the seniors.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

According to SEN Jack Watts did enough at Casey to earn a call-up for the Hawks game and will play tomorrow. Not sure I agree with this another week at Casey might have been the go. I hope they decide to leave him in the forward 50 with Clark instead of playing between the arcs. The kid can kick goals he just needs time to settle down there.

Well looks like SEN was wrong - I just got a text with the ins & outs and Watts was not included. I think this is a good thing, sorry for posting false info but they definitely said this on SEN and it sounded like they had spoken to the club about it (though I only heard it for 10 minutes).

EDIT: For those interested

IN: Petterd Bennell Fitzpatrick

OUT: Sellar (calf) Tapscott Dunn

Edited May 10, 2012 by Dr. Gonzo

[Pennant St Dee 13,118]

Hodge and Bouman out for Hawks, Gillham and someone else in they are worried about lack of height down back, Gillham will be underdone

[Waltham33 475]

Time for Ricky and Bennell to justify the faith. No more chances after this

[DeeSpencer 25,497]

Obviously isolating Clark on an underdone Gilham or Schoenmakers is our best one on one match up but I have significant doubts Hawthorn will let us do it. And if both teams dropped a man back I feel it would only play into Hawthorn's superior midfield winning the game.

I'm concerned there is no match up for Tom McDonald with Hawthorn only having Franklin, Roughead and Hale as talls who will go forward (and one of them has to be in the ruck). So really after Frawley and Rivers, with Garland playing small who does McDonald go to? I get concerned when we carry extra tall defenders who aren't needed. With Sellar out I'm super keen to throw McDonald to CHF and let him have a run there. It would at least tire out the other tall defender who isn't on Clark. Fitzpatrick would also get a nice match up at least height wise.

If they don't play McDonald forward for at least the last quarter if the game is over but hopefully the whole night I'll be very disappointed.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,197]

Time for Ricky and Bennell to justify the faith. No more chances after this

I agree but this "chance" should last up until the bye. You can't chuck players in for one week and then drop them straight away if they aren't BOG.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Time for Ricky and Bennell to justify the faith. No more chances after this

I am not sure why posters put this ultimatum when both are contracted for the rest of the year and need to provide enough justification in the remaining rounds to justify being given a further contract.

It would be good if both or even one of them began to turn their seasons/ careers around. They both need to produce and show more.

But I think we dont need to close the minds by saying "No more chances after this".

[Waltham33 475]

I am not sure why posters put this ultimatum when both are contracted for the rest of the year and need to provide enough justification in the remaining rounds to justify being given a further contract.

It would be good if both or even one of them began to turn their seasons/ careers around. They both need to produce and show more.

But I think we dont need to close the minds by saying "No more chances after this".

Simple - do not ever put yourself in a position to be dropped - pretty obvious requirement. Ricky and Bennell are 2 on the list who seem to do little when the cards are not falling their way. If they address that, they should have no problems, if they do not address that, then what is the point of bringing them back yet again?

[Waltham33 475]

I agree but this "chance" should last up until the bye. You can't chuck players in for one week and then drop them straight away if they aren't BOG.

Yes but that is up to them, sometimes you only get one chance - tough - make of it what you will.

[Demon_spurs 1,833]

I think that's the best team we fielded all year.

Dunn has dunn a job be its time to be proactive rather than reactive

Tapscott was underdunn when he came in

Sellar makes us Sellar Dwellers.

Good on ya Fitzy for getting a chance, Bennell to play like I saw him train pre season ( I hope)

Pettard, I always reckon we look more dangerous with him in.

Good on the selectors for overlooking Watts. Lets make him real hungry to get back

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I agree but this "chance" should last up until the bye. You can't chuck players in for one week and then drop them straight away if they aren't BOG.

You have to make those judgements on a case by case basis. I don't think there is a set formula or time on when a player should or shouldn't be omitted.

[The Backyard Charizard 1,202]

I am really looking forward to this match.... I believe we may see a very different Jamie Bennell under our new coaching crew... Watching our youngsters move to the next level is about as much excitement as we are going to get this year... That and watching the passion of Mitch Clark...

I reckon we can really take it up to Hawthorn.... Call me Krazy!

[Range Rover 1,935]

Let's all get behind Fitzy this weekend. Great to see the kid in.

Glad they stood firm on Watts.

[Deeoldfart 8,005]

.......................

IN: Petterd Bennell Fitzpatrick

OUT: Sellar (calf) Tapscott Dunn

Great to see. Consistently solid (or better) form at Casey over several weeks rewarded with promotion. Exactly as it should be!