11 down 11 to go

[drdrake 3,185]

Mid season and if you look at our win lose record we are not far away from what most of us would of predicted when the fixture came out last year. I had us with 5 wins till mid year and the teams that I had a certain wins we beat. I was hoping to pick up a win against either Sydney or North, I had us losing to Hawks, West Coast(Subi), St Kilda, Carlton and Collingwood, so as far as the win/loss assessment we are 2 points away for what I predicted last year.

Most of us on this site know that our win/loss ratio is important but not the only KPI for the 2011 season. We have to show continued improvement and development, in our wins and draw we have certainly shown this. Our loses on the other hand remind me of 2008/9 we give in, we can't stop teams scoring against us and we can't get our ball inside our forward 50m arc enough to have any chance of winning games.

We have seen the debut of 5 players Tapscott, Evans, Nicholson, Howe and Gawn, we can all see positives with these players that should help us push higher up the ladder. We have seen Jack Watts improve, unfortunately not as the Key goal kicking Forward that we all hope for but he is getting his hands on the footy and growing in confidence. We are getting more games into Trengove, Scully, Gysberts, McKenzie, Strauss, Bennell, Jurrah, Jetta, Maric, Morton and the rest of our younger players. Again we have seen enough to known these players have ability.

Moloney, Sylvia are having good years, Sylvia IMO is still our most damaging player he has the ability to kick goals and hit targets. Jones and Rivers are two other senior players that are trying hard but both have areas in there games that continue to let them down.

Green and Davey have been big disappointments this year, unfortunately for Davey he might not get a chance this year to redeem himself. Green has 11 games to show that he is able to lead this club on the first 11 games we have to say that he is struggling and on current form shouldn't be captian in 2012.

The next 11 games will be about will he stay or will he go and I'm not talking about Tom Scully. The Coach needs to improve to keep his job, we as supporters can cop losing matches but we all can see that our set up and structures are very poor. We can't zone, we can't stop teams scoring against us and we can't get the footy inside our forward 50m arc, these are the same issues we have had since Dean Bailey took over the coaching role. If he can't fix this over the next 11 games he will not be coaching the Melbourne Football Club next year. We heard from Bailey they key areas we had to improve were stopping teams scoring against us and getting the ball inside 50m more, we heard this at the start of 2010 and we saw improvement, we heard this at the start of 2011 and it hasn't improved in fact gone backwards.

The next 11 games I had us down for 7 wins when the fixture came out, we have to improve a hell of a lot to acheive this.

Edited June 14, 2011 by drdrake

[Samsara 65]

A good summary of things so far. Certainly have no delusions about us playing finals this year. We simply do not deserve it based on how performance so far. Need to keep getting games into young players and Bailey needs to show us why he deserves to stay on as coach.

[titan_uranus 25,042]

Win/loss ratio is irrelevant to me (that's not to say I don't want us to win games, I just don't measure this year's success solely on who we beat).

We need to learn how to move the ball through the press. Either that's going to come via discipline and working very hard at the current method, or a change of style. Either way, Bailey has to do it, and do it soon, or he won't be here next year.

We have only beaten sides this year who don't apply enough defensive pressure (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Essendon). We have been embarrassed by sides who do (Hawthorn, West Coast, Carlton, Collingwood).

Our gameplan works when under no pressure, and doesn't when under pressure. Whether that can be remedied by waiting for our players to get stronger/more experienced/more used to playing with each other, or whether we need to change it, remains to be seen.

[old dee 23,870]

drdrake I agree with most of what you say, and I will preface my next comment by saying we have a lot of injuries.

However I thought the big losses would be behind us but alas we are still getting flogged by the better sides.

That part worries me.

It maybe because of injury but I do not think we have improved at all on last year.

We either have a crap game plan and or a lack of players to implement it.

That is my worry.

[old dee 23,870]

Win/loss ratio is irrelevant to me (that's not to say I don't want us to win games, I just don't measure this year's success solely on who we beat).

We need to learn how to move the ball through the press. Either that's going to come via discipline and working very hard at the current method, or a change of style. Either way, Bailey has to do it, and do it soon, or he won't be here next year.

We have only beaten sides this year who don't apply enough defensive pressure (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Essendon). We have been embarrassed by sides who do (Hawthorn, West Coast, Carlton, Collingwood).

Our gameplan works when under no pressure, and doesn't when under pressure. Whether that can be remedied by waiting for our players to get stronger/more experienced/more used to playing with each other, or whether we need to change it, remains to be seen.

I agree TU however the win / loss ratio is important.

Without a reasonal numbers of wins the fans / members drop off.

We simply cannot afford to drop a significant number of members.

[Disco Demons 92]

Where is the improvement on last year?

As a team there is no improvement...we can't play two weeks of good football after round 11. A number of players are playing better football but as a team we haven't improved.

I hope the club knows what they are doing. These poor performances are damaging the Club, Sponsorship, Supporters and future supporters. Baliey has only had this pain for 3.5yrs...I've had this pain for 30years.

[Maldonboy38 6,405]

Great post, DrDrake. The Dees are still 2 years away from a starting 22 that can win a final which is a bit disappointing, but many thought 2013 would be most likely anyway. The great problem is 3-fold:

When we lose, we lose horribly

We haven't adapted to the 2011 game (we would match up well with a 2007 Geelong gameplan that has been mostly negated by new defensive structures)

Leadership. As a footballer, Junior was probably a player who would start on the bench but he was a magnificent leader. I thought his appointment as leader was a grasp at short straws but he proved me wrong. When he was asked to stand aside I thought it was a good decision. Again, I was wrong. Sylvia, Rivers and Moloney have provided leadership at times but Davey and Green are proven to be influential PLAYERS but not influential LEADERS.

With 11 to go, apart from our appalling under-pressure skills, kick in structure, inability against the press etc... I want to see leadership and ticker. Yes, I want wins and the win/loss ratio is important, but we will go nowhere without leadership. We have leadership at Board level, we have it in Admin, we have it in Marketing, Membership, Sponsorship but we lack it on the field.

Will the next leader(s) of the MFC please stand up.

.

[old dee 23,870]

Where is the improvement on last year?

As a team there is no improvement...we can't play two weeks of good football after round 11. A number of players are playing better football but as a team we haven't improved.

I hope the club knows what they are doing. These poor performances are damaging the Club, Sponsorship, Supporters and future supporters. Baliey has only had this pain for 3.5yrs...I've had this pain for 30years.

DD try 47 years

[Born to Run 204]

Yeah - OK, I;ll buy into the theory that we are not too many wins / losses from where we probably (and realisitically) thought we would be at seasons start.

BUT - I hate the fact we have been uncompetitive in at least 5 matches already this season (I have included Hawks and Nth in that lot).

If we are 2/3 years away from being a side that can win ONE FINAL, then we are probably 3/4 years away (at least) from being in a position to win a GRAND FINAL.

We have been rebuilding for 3 seasons before this one (total 4) and if we add the 3/4 year estimate to having a side that COULD win a flag, it is a 7/8 year rebuild......

Now - we all agree that we had a list which was aging and not going to win a flag when Bailey took over, but its a bit of a cop out to eradicate all the older players, bring in kids and not deliver a culture of competing for the footy each and every week. I just cant see how it is acceptable in this modern age of football to have a rebuild that takes 8 years to get a team that is in a position to compete for a flag (i.e. top four).

Our culture has been affected by our rebuild, I just hope we can generate confidence and fight in the players quickly as they develop or else we are in trouble. Developing a winning culture is just as hard as developing players to become elite AFL players. I know a lot of change was required and youth was a key to that change when DB took over, but seriously, it seems as though we are accepting our shortcomings (poor concentration, non competitive periods in nearly every game, poor attack on the footy etc) just because we have gone down this path. Given me a bit of fight like North Melbourne or Sydney every time over "future potential". There is only so much spin a person can listen to before it all sounds like BS.

Very tested by the Dees at the moment as I am sure many people are.

Just play football like its your last game.

[Mac7 309]

How many wins?

At our best I think we could win quite a few of these (6 of these games are against teams currently below us)

The problem is we are so often not at our best...

Opponent Venue

FREMANTLE MCG

RICHMOND MCG

WESTERN BULLDOGS Etihad Stadium

PORT ADELAIDE TIO

HAWTHORN MCG

GEELONG CATS Skilled

CARLTON MCG

WEST COAST EAGLES Etihad Stadium

RICHMOND MCG

GOLD COAST MCG

PORT ADELAIDE AAMI

Edited June 14, 2011 by Mac7

[Guest hangon007]

How many wins?

Opponent Venue

FREMANTLE MCG

RICHMOND MCG

WESTERN BULLDOGS Etihad Stadium

PORT ADELAIDE TIO

HAWTHORN MCG

GEELONG CATS Skilled

CARLTON MCG

WEST COAST EAGLES Etihad Stadium

RICHMOND MCG

GOLD COAST MCG

PORT ADELAIDE AAMI

Assuming we loss to Hawks, Geelong & Carlton ... we need to win 7/8 of the remaining as a minimum. IMHO Tigers are our crunch opposition.

Edited June 14, 2011 by hangon007

[Born to Run 204]

How many wins?

At our best I think we could win quite a few of these (6 of these games are against teams currently below us)

The problem is we are so often not at our best...

Opponent Venue

FREMANTLE MCG

RICHMOND MCG

WESTERN BULLDOGS Etihad Stadium

PORT ADELAIDE TIO

HAWTHORN MCG

GEELONG CATS Skilled

CARLTON MCG

WEST COAST EAGLES Etihad Stadium

RICHMOND MCG

GOLD COAST MCG

PORT ADELAIDE AAMI

I honestly think that we could only win 3 of the 6 matches against teams below us now. While Melbourne's inconsistency makes it hard to know who exactly we might beat and lose to - I will go out on a limb and say that we will only beat Gold Coast, Port at TIO (not confident), and one of the Richmond games. I know this is a pessimistic attitude, but its what I feel at the moment.

[jacey 333]

Let's have a look at the players.

Players who have seen their stocks rise.

Gysberts, Martin, Mckenzie, Moloney, Rivers, Trengove, Sylvia, Tapscott, Watts

Players who have the same stock. (bc of injury)

Scully, Frawley, Bail, Garland, Grimes, Jamar

Players who have the same stock.

Bartram, Bennell, Jetta, Jones, Jurrah, MacDonald, Strauss

Players who have seen their stocks drop.

Bate, Davey, Dunn, Green, Maric, Morton, Petterd, Warnock, Aussie W.

players yet to play or not enough to judge.

Blease, Cook, Davis, Fitzpatrick, Gawn, Howe, Mcdonald.

So by my count we've got 16 players who has not improved or lost ground. 7 yet to play. 6 injured. That's over 76% of our list.

fail

[drdrake 3,185]

I think you can add Bail to the improve list, injury aside he was good before injured.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

Win/Loss ratio is a meaurement method. Your position on the ladder at the end of the season reflects how you went against the competion, your previous season and nearness to playing finals etc etc , so I don't think you can ignore it.

Having said that, the season is only 1/2 way and I would have thought 10 wins or there abouts at the end of the season would have been a reasonable target showing improvement on the previous season. ( Only bareley however, due to the favourable draw and 2 outings against the GCS).

So in a sense that doesn't worry me at this time (It might at the end of the year). What bothers me right now is how we manage to get done by 88 points and that we only register 6 goals with only three goal scorers.

That's just a whopping margin ,a huge black mark and the same yoke that's been hanging around our neck for quite a while.

Ok the coach blames the midfield and signals changes.

Nup.

6 goals with three goal scorers cant all be a midfield problem in my view.

How about we compare the size, strength and grunt of the respective forward set ups of the top sides. We have a number of outside finishers, whilst Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and others have big bodied types who can hold their ground, are capable of taking pack marks and are generally capable of using their size to exploit us with dish offs and getting people out of the road etc.

The club has had 4 years to do something about this aspect ( trade, recruit, develop whatever) but as far as I'm concerned we are still going round with a massively disadvantaged (and primarily small) set up and still get beaten up regularly.

I have the small man complex at the moment.

Ok enough of the problem, I believe its time for the forward structure to be totally revisited. I exempt Howe from my tirade having played only two games, I would like to see some imagination and at the very least some new options considered. eg Maybe Garland back in Frawley sent forward , maybe Tom McDonald given a role in a new structure somewhere.

But please no more of the same undersized key position approach and lets set about creating the model for the future.

P.S. Recruiters more players over 195 please and preferably those that can also run. We have enough small quick blokes on the list for the moment.

[Born to Run 204]

I honestly think that we could only win 3 of the 6 matches against teams below us now. While Melbourne's inconsistency makes it hard to know who exactly we might beat and lose to - I will go out on a limb and say that we will only beat Gold Coast, Port at TIO (not confident), and one of the Richmond games. I know this is a pessimistic attitude, but its what I feel at the moment.

BUMP

I remember saying this and thinking that I was way too harsh and that it would come back to bite me......

Instead it turned out to be spot on..... Should have had money on that!

[The Chazz 4,077]

BUMP

I remember saying this and thinking that I was way too harsh and that it would come back to bite me......

Instead it turned out to be spot on..... Should have had money on that!

You would've lost your money becuase we defeated Freo as well.

Edit - Nb. Freo weren't below us on the ladder, but we still beat them.

Edited September 5, 2011 by billy2803