BAILEY TO STAY OR GO - VOTE NOW!!

[Nasher 33,607]

care to graph that and deduce the trend ?? probably not huh !!!

My deduction, we're winning more games each year.

I really should find something better to do with my days off

[beelzebub 23,313]

My deduction, we're winning more games each year.

I really should find something better to do with my days off

the trend itself.. shows a slowing of improvement from an initial jump . The first two years were accomplishing one job where after there was a dramatic ( by comparison ) improvement . This is trailing off. Some will see the graph and think we're still improving. Appearances are deceiving. The underlying TREND is downward.

Anyone who understands forex will see this immediately.

Glad youre happy there Nasher

[Nasher 33,607]

Glad youre happy there Nasher

See, this is yet another straw man and it's irritating. Just because I am not anti-Bailey does not mean I'm pro-Bailey, nor does it mean I'm happy. It just means that if you post silly stats or illogical arguments, I'm going to pull you up.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Neither are the stats silly or the argument illogical.

And Im far from Straw...which seems a fav tactic of such as yourself and Rhino in defence...oh..its all just Straw.

Its easy to show Bailey is becoming less and less effective . This despite better and better off field assets, amenities as well as a vast improvement to his list.

This it not an isolated view...practically the whole of football media is asking the same thing. They arent doing it purely to fill pages but because it stares all in the face

If you are neither pro Bailey...nor anti Bailey what are you ?

Edited May 2, 2011 by belzebub59

[daisycutter 29,605]

My deduction, we're winning more games each year.

I really should find something better to do with my days off

well taking the tanking into account we should win more games(without improving)

graph means little (esp when you indicate this year as some sort of improvement)

move on to more meaningful stuff

[rpfc 28,267]

W/L column has been meaningless for us since 2006...

WGAF?? I implored the 'experimentation' that we nearly screwed up...

I'm not pro-Bailey, I have been disappointed like everyone else, but I want us to wait for more of the season to unfurl before we cast him aside.

It's a big decision and for some to think we should have a caretaker in Rd 7 or that the board should be involved is pretty naive.

I want to wait a few months. That does not make me or those that think like me, apologists or blind followers of Bailey...

[Nasher 33,607]

If you are neither pro Bailey...nor anti Bailey what are you ?

Reluctant to decide this early in the year.

[Radar Detector 1,347]

the trend itself.. shows a slowing of improvement from an initial jump . The first two years were accomplishing one job where after there was a dramatic ( by comparison ) improvement . This is trailing off. Some will see the graph and think we're still improving. Appearances are deceiving. The underlying TREND is downward.

The underlying trend is not downwards, it is upwards. The second degree trend is downwards but that is to be expected. To illustrate, we would actually need to achieve 18 wins this year for Nasher's chart not to taper off somewhat... which would surely sit us in the top two at years end. And realistically, nobody could expect our rate of improvement to be anything close to linear.

In fact, given our personnel changes, a ratio of 40% at years end wouldn't be the end of the world. I just want to be able to leave each gaming feeling like the 22 players in red and blue had a crack which we have not seen so far this year. How much of that is Bailey and how much of it is the players I am not yet sure.

Hopefully the players can turn it around and this issue will go away. Deep down I don't think that Green, Davey, Chip et al can continue to play this badly for ever.

I'm not pro-Bailey, I have been disappointed like everyone else, but I want us to wait for more of the season to unfurl before we cast him aside.

It's a big decision and for some to think we should have a caretaker in Rd 7 or that the board should be involved is pretty naive.

I want to wait a few months. That does not make me or those that think like me, apologists or blind followers of Bailey...

Well said. This issue is far from black and white and more information is needed before a decision is made on Bailey. It's far easier to think that the coach is the root of all evil and a quick switch will fix everything. Seems to have worked for Essendon (so far) and hasn't for Port. Either way, potting the coach in round 6 is lunacy.

If we are still having the same discussions in round 16, that's a different story.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Reluctant to decide this early in the year.

Fair enough.

My view , for the record is from the overall effectiveness of Bailey since assuming the mantel. I see the first 2 years as slightly separate but not totally . I've just seen enough for mine.

Mind your rear on that fence

[Bruce Almighty 0]

IMO if melbourne sack bailey and hire a proven coach like malthouse or roos i think the majority of members/supporters will be pleased with this outcome knowing he club is in good hands, on the other hand if the club decides to keep bailey on they are always going to have to cope scrutiny and criticism everytime time that have a bad performance.

i think it is a win win by letting bailey go and getting a malthouse or roos, whereas the option of keeping him on will definetly outrage a large amount of members and supporters.

The assistance coaches and the fitness/strength coaches need to go aswell!

THAT IS ALL

[Nice'N'Neitz1 0]

I still would have picked Sheeds and he wanted the job at the time - membership would have gone through the roof - he's tough

[Rogue 585]

I still would have picked Sheeds and he wanted the job at the time - membership would have gone through the roof - he's tough

I wouldn't have (not even with hindsight).

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

I still would have picked Sheeds and he wanted the job at the time - membership would have gone through the roof - he's tough

I'm with you on that one Nice. I would have preferred this for at least the first 3 years of the rebuild. Especially with so many young recruits coming in. The respect would have been massive and he would hopefully have have moulded them with the right culture/practices/attitude etc.

I too think we would have picked up a lazy 3,000 to 5,000 members and maybe even pushed for a birth in the Anzac day blockbuster!! Imagine the head to head....Sheeds vs Malthouse! Folks...they're back at it again on this great day! Haha.... oops...i digress

Although, back to a more serious note, i recall hearing Sheeds being asked about Bails after his appointment, and he couldn't have been more complimentary. He believed Bails was ripe and well groomed for success. Made me feel confident in the selection anyway.

As disappointed as some of us are in whats happened this year to this point, deep down i'm sure many here (including myself) are hoping Bailey & the boys can pull this out of the fire and achieve something amazing for themselves and us. And finally turn our Demons into a Mighty Force once again!

As many of you have stated so well already, other successful teams (eg., Geelong early in 2007, and their finishing 10th in 2006) have been in this position before and managed to turn it around and find glory. I live in hope that this will be us from here.

Arghh...someone belt me over the head with a hammer, i'm dreamin again B)

[Sir Why You Little 36,989]

I'm with you on that one Nice. I would have preferred this for at least the first 3 years of the rebuild. Especially with so many young recruits coming in. The respect would have been massive and he would hopefully have have moulded them with the right culture/practices/attitude etc.

I too think we would have picked up a lazy 3,000 to 5,000 members and maybe even pushed for a birth in the Anzac day blockbuster!! Imagine the head to head....Sheeds vs Malthouse! Folks...they're back at it again on this great day! Haha.... oops...i digress

Although, back to a more serious note, i recall hearing Sheeds being asked about Bails after his appointment, and he couldn't have been more complimentary. He believed Bails was ripe and well groomed for success. Made me feel confident in the selection anyway.

As disappointed as some of us are in whats happened this year to this point, deep down i'm sure many here (including myself) are hoping Bailey & the boys can pull this out of the fire and achieve something amazing for themselves and us. And finally turn our Demons into a Mighty Force once again!

As many of you have stated so well already, other successful teams (eg., Geelong early in 2007, and their finishing 10th in 2006) have been in this position before and managed to turn it around and find glory. I live in hope that this will be us from here.

Arghh...someone belt me over the head with a hammer, i'm dreamin again B)

Give Dean the next month to prove to us all if he is a true LEADER. He is a great teacher. With the Heat on Dean just might shine. He deserves that chance.

[Supermercado 2,797]

I still would have picked Sheeds and he wanted the job at the time - membership would have gone through the roof - he's tough

We'd probably have Courtney Johns and Chris Heffernan playing. He's a crackpot.

Mind you if we were just going to lose for five years....

[Bobby McKenzie 2,383]

The Board has some very important decisions to make, a little earlier than they intended, But that's life....nothing is ever rock solid.

Agree fully on this one. However, although I have lost faith in Bailey as a coach I must say that on Thursday night against the Weagles we were absolutely thrashed in the one on one contests. It was unbelievably lop sided. If our guys can't win the ball in their own right it is hard to fully blame the coach and his assistants. He MAY have a game plan ( I've yet to see it) but if we haven't got the ball any plan is doomed to failure. Want to have another crack at coaching John Northey? Sadly Norm and Len aren't around to get us out of this mess.

Edited May 2, 2011 by bobby mckenzie

[Sir Why You Little 36,989]

Agree fully on this one. However, although I have lost faith in Bailey as a coach I must say that on Thursday night against the Weagles we were absolutely thrashed in the one on one contests. It was unbelievably lop sided. If our guys can't win the ball in their own right it is hard to fully blame the coach and his assistants. He MAY have a game plan ( I've yet to see it) but if we haven't got the ball any plan is doomed to failure. Want to have another crack at coaching John Northey? Sadly Norm and Len aren't around to get us out of this mess.

Dean still has a few games up his sleeve, it's time. We could see another side of Dean Bailey from sunday onwards..He must throw caution to the wind now, i am now looking forward to see if he can do it.

[dee-luded 2,959]

I still would have picked Sheeds and he wanted the job at the time - membership would have gone through the roof - he's tough

Dpends how he wanted to go about rebuilding the list, with kids or with trades?

[Fork 'em 6,983]

I dont want try..I want DO

There is no try , only DO or DO not . - Yoda .

[hardtack 10,517]

the trend itself.. shows a slowing of improvement from an initial jump . The first two years were accomplishing one job where after there was a dramatic ( by comparison ) improvement . This is trailing off. Some will see the graph and think we're still improving. Appearances are deceiving. The underlying TREND is downward.

Anyone who understands forex will see this immediately.

Glad youre happy there Nasher

It would be interesting to see whether Hawthorn would have won the flag if they hadn't persevered with Clarkson in his "building" phase.

[beelzebub 23,313]

It would be interesting to see whether Hawthorn would have won the flag if they hadn't persevered with Clarkson in his "building" phase.

Imnot wishing to offer this inisolation as stats alone can be befuddling. ..however

Year Team Games Coached Wins Losses Draws Win %

2005 Hawthorn Hawks 22 5 17 0 22.7%

2006 Hawthorn Hawks 22 9 13 0 40.9%

2007 Hawthorn Hawks 24 14 10 0 58.3%

2008 Hawthorn Hawks 25 20 5 0 80.0%

2009 Hawthorn Hawks 22 9 13 0 40.9%

2010 Hawthorn Hawks 23 12 10 1 52.2%

2011 Hawthorn Hawks 5 3 2 0 60.0%

To me this shows that even in his 'lean' building years he was far further down the track.

The question is rather interesting though

[hardtack 10,517]

To me this shows that even in his 'lean' building years he was far further down the track.

The question is rather interesting though

In all fairness to Bailey though, I may be wrong but if I recall correctly, Clarkson had more to work with in terms of a player base that he built upon and in terms of facilities. I think this is a much fairer comparison than comparing Bailey to a Hird for example (and I'm not implying you are guilty of such a comparison), who is essentially building his success on the back of the "brains" of the operation in Thompson.

Edited May 3, 2011 by hardtack

[Guest Artie Bucco]

Clarkson has absolutely elite midfielders that had been drafted in 2001 to work with - Hodge, Mitchell.

Moloney or Sylvia would be our heldover mids by comparison, and they're not in the same stratosphere.

Clarkson had a brownlow medallist in Crawford - we have Brad Green.

It's blatantly unfair to compare the 2 lists and their progress.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Getting back somewhat to the middle of the topic I can see only a limited number of scenarios avail.

1) In the belated spirit of Easter Dean pulls a rabbitt out of a hat that makes jc's comeback look 2nd rate . The players lift/return. Reasonable number of wins. Club considers him for renewal

2) Whatever the malaise that befalls our club continues to linger and the mud gets muddier. .

In terms of results ... i.e win/lose theres unlikely to be much in terms of outcomes. and this is where danger looms either way for Bailey. There are presently 17 games remaining.

Lets put up a case for a 50/50 return. Result at seasons end is we have effectively say 44 pts. Id suggest youd bve very lucky to sneak into the finals now with only 44. Meaning ....weve missed the finals in a year we were expected to step up. Grade = Failure

We fumble along for most of the rest of the season before landing a couple of decent wins here and there. Possible outcome 5-7 more wins. max pts 38. Grade >>>> Fail

Alternatively a fairytale revival occurs and we might say get a 66% return for rest of year >> 54 pts... this might land you around 5th spot. Result Finals.. Grade >>> Very Good

Who would like to come up and give me money on 11 wins from here on in ??...anyone ?? Its highly doubtful..And for mine this is why. We dont really have our A grade midfield on the paddock. Even when it gets there it will need a few game ( in battle conditions ) to gel and weld itself into a formidable force. ( and I beleive it will be one day ).

Given injuries and the need for various players to get match fit and then some, I cant see us forcingourselves on this competition for at least 5-6 weeks. That effectively leaves only 11-12 games to make a fist with. Your hard up agaisnt the wall then.. To temper this more we would have needed a game style that was potent and somewhat consistent. Im sure of neither.

There are in reality two time frames that come into play that will decide the fate of this club and staff. The short term and the rest-of-season.

Im going to suggest the short term in the next 4 weeks. If nothing seems to be changing then the die will be well and truly cast. What else can happen? Well we can start playing competitive football. But theres nothing to date ( this year ) to indicate to me that there is any real basis to get overly confident playing Adelaide, nth , St Kilda and Carlton. Roos and Saints are at etihad and we play SO well there . . Lets say we even manage two wins.. This puts us on course for a 50/50 outcome years end. No finals and Bailey's gone

I for one think we will know in a fortnight what we need to do in terms of courses of action . Many observers suggest 6-8 but as I consider Ive shown short of a miracle a trend will have been cemented for the year and this will force the hand of the club. I actually ,despite my concerns for his coaching/winning ability , quite like Bailey. I consider him an honorable man. Should the writing on the wall turn to Neon I think he himself would be wanting to effect his fate rather than the other way around .. Id suggest he would inform the club he seeks no extension/new contract..

This will allow all to save face, allow the club to start its search.

my thinking is only..ONLY a massive resurrection of this team, and quickly, will save Bailey. other sceanrios will have exhausted the clubs patience and belief

[Radar Detector 1,347]

Lets put up a case for a 50/50 return. Result at seasons end is we have effectively say 44 pts. Id suggest youd bve very lucky to sneak into the finals now with only 44. Meaning ....weve missed the finals in a year we were expected to step up. Grade = Failure

If you're judging an eleven win season as a fail this year then you can't see the wood for the trees. Despite the impatient urgings of vocal supporters, this year is about improvement in the players that will become the core of our side from 2013-2018.

Whether we win 8, 11 or 15 is hardly the point. This season will be a suceess if

- Jack Watts continues to improve

- Frawley, Morton and Grimes can regain some form

- We continue to get regular games into Tapscott, Gysberts

- We can get a decent contribution from Scully and McKenzie in the second half of the year

- We can get some more senior games into Strauss, Maric, Petterd, even Blease

It will be an easier season to watch if senior guys like Green, Davey and Sylvia pull the finger out and we start winning games, but to me that won't define a successful season.