THE OPTIMIST - Preview of the Lions game

[Demonland 73,140]

THE OPTIMIST by Demon Head

It wasn't fun growing up as a Melbourne supporter in the early 1980's. Wins were few and far between and when the team tasted victory, you savoured it. Winning matches was a matter of pride for the embattled Demon supporter and even when the season was virtually done and dusted and your team was sitting in tenth place (they had a final five in those days) all you hoped for if you were an optimist like me was that the Dees would string together a couple of late wins and finish eighth so that you might salvage some honour out of a season.

Things have changed these days as I discovered during my recent holiday out west where both of the local sides are struggling this year and a heated controversy rages about whether the Eagles, in particular, are trying to win or whether they are (ahem) "tanking" in order to take advantage of an early draft pick at the end of the year.

As a Demon fan, I must confess that I don't feel as bad as I should when I watch my team struggling for wins, as it has in the past months, because I am also aware of the potential pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in the form of an early national draft selection.

On that note, I was surprised and amused to read the headline on an article this week - "Bailey plans changes for consistency."

What does that mean?

We've been losing games consistently this year, so do we really need to make changes to maintain our consistent losing record?

That's obviously not the tack that Dean Bailey is taking but my immediate reaction was indicative of the effect of all this talk about teams losing to get a better position in the draft.

It's wrong and it's about time the AFL pulled its head out of the sand and did something to change the system. It’s all about perception and as long as the perception is that some clubs are producing mediocre performances and being rewarded for it, then the AFL must act to produce a better draft system. Getting rid of the two year priority system is one way of reducing the effects of the problem. A lottery system would also help.

The irony is that the pot of draft gold may not be all that significant in the real world anyway. In the case of the Melbourne Football Club, an early draft pick would be handy but there are a lot of other things that need to happen, apart from picking up one player among the best of the young kids in the land, in order for a team to improve beyond its current levels.

There have been some recent signs that Dean Bailey has the club on the right track and, though the results might not show it yet, I'm confident we are about to start winning games soon - and it might even be sooner than we think. That's the optimist in me talking but I just have this feeling...

THE GAME

Brisbane v. Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 29 June 2008 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 17 wins Brisbane 14 wins

At the MCG Melbourne wins Brisbane wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 3 wins Brisbane 6 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 wins Matthews 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports 1 live at 1.00pm

RADIO - 774ABC K-Rock SEN Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING Brisbane to win $1.20 Melbourne to win $4.20

LAST TIME THEY MET Brisbane 19.23.137 defeated Melbourne 13.7.85, Round 6, 2008, at the Gabba

History tells that this was the first game of the post David Neitz era. During the preceding week, the skipper was placed on the long-term injury list and a few weeks later, he announced his retirement.

Without their long term leader, the team performed as you would expect a young side to do in the absence of strong leadership - it floundered and without any tall targets, it was left to small men, Nathan Jones (4) and Austin Wonaeamirri (3) to score the goals.

The inevitable losing margin was 52 points but it could easily have been double that but for the home side's inaccuracy in front of goal. Former Demon Travis Johnstone rubbed it in by kicking the first and last goals for the game.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Colin Garland Matthew Warnock

Half backs Brad Green Paul Wheatley Cameron Bruce

Centreline Colin Sylvia Brock McLean Lynden Dunn

Half forwards Chris Johnson Matthew Bate Aaron Davey

Forwards Stefan Martin Brad Miller Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Paul Johnson Clint Bartram Nathan Jones

Interchange Jace Bode Simon Buckley Mark Jamar Shane Valenti

Emergencies Nathan Carroll Cale Morton Jeff White

In Simon Buckley Stefan Martin Shane Valenti

Out James Frawley (omitted) James McDonald (groin) Jeff White (omitted)

New Stefan Martin (21, Sandringham)

BRISBANE LIONS

Backs Josh Drummond Daniel Merrett Joel Patfull

Half Backs Joel Macdonald Mitch Clark Justin Sherman

Centreline Anthony Corrie Simon Black Tim Notting

Half Forwards Michael Rischitelli Jonathan Brown Ashley McGrath

Forwards Robert Copeland Daniel Bradshaw Jared Brennan

Followers Jamie Charman Luke Power Jed Adcock

Interchange (from) Tom Collier Scott Clouston Rhan Hooper James Polkinghorne Cheynee Stiller Travis Johnstone Troy Selwood

In Daniel Bradshaw Scott Clouston Travis Johnstone Justin Sherman

Out Lachlan Henderson (omitted)

AFTER ALL THESE YEARS

Q: When was the last time Brisbane played Melbourne on the MCG?

A: Certainly not at any time during this century.

Melbourne has only played one game against the Lions in its home state since the turn of the century and that was in Round 10 of 2000 in a game played at Telstra Dome. The last eight meetings have been at the Gabba and Brisbane has won six of those games. Now, for the first time since Round 21, 1999 the Demons finally have a true home ground advantage over Lethal's mob. So, after all these years, they have a real chance of beating Brisbane in front of a true home crowd and let's hope that Melbourne fans turn up in their numbers so that Paul McNamee doesn't have to write out a cheque for the privilege of playing on our home soil!

The sceptics will argue that home ground advantage means very little against a side that clearly has the edge in terms of personnel, strength and experience. They will point to the Lions’ on ball brigade headed by the in form Simon Black and Luke Power and the dangerous forward combination of Brown and Bradshaw (the latter has averaged 8 goals at the last three meetings of these clubs). They will also point to the fact that the MCG doesn’t engender fear in the hearts of the boys from Brisbane who completed an 83 point thrashing of Collingwood at that venue late last year just before the Pies started their run that ended with the falling just short of a grand final appearance. And the Lions also gave Melbourne a towelling not all that long ago when the teams met in late April when their midfield completely dominated over the young Demons that day and set up a 52 point win that could easily have been a far greater but for their shocking inaccuracy.

All that aside, and I'm acting more than on just a hunch, I believe that there has been a fair amount of improvement in this young Demon team over the past couple of months despite the injury woes that have seen important players in David Neitz, Russell Robertson, Brent Moloney and now Jared Rivers outed for the season. The introduction of new blood has helped to stiffen the team’s back line and is beginning to fill the enormous holes caused to its attack by the loss of its backbone of many years.

The team's performances remain inconsistent both between and during games but it's their last three games on the home turf of the MCG that has me more than a little impressed. The games were the stirring come from behind victory against the Fremantle Dockers and the two defeats at the hands of Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Against the Hawks Melbourne held a 14 point lead with 5 minutes left in the third term. A lucky break set up a Hawthorn goal and three more followed before the final change. Those 5 minutes cost Melbourne the game. Despite that, they came back to regain the lead twice and give the Hawks an almighty fright before they got home by 19 points. It was much the same against the Magpies with the result in doubt until the last five or so minutes. The Demons are losing but they are doing so because of lapses in parts of games and not for the whole of games as they were in the opening rounds of the season.

The time will come soon when Melbourne puts a full game together or one that's close enough to 100% of match time. When this happens, many will be surprised but not I won’t be because these things go with the territory of being a young developing side.

Why should the victim be Brisbane?

I saw the Lions when they played their last game down here in Melbourne a fortnight ago (and their only game at the G so far this year), and while their opposition that day was all class and a top four combination in the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane was troubled all day. The Lions looked uncomfortable on the G in much the same way as they looked uncomfortable when a young, developing Hawthorn surprised them to win by 8 goals on this very same ground a few years ago.

Therefore, I’m tipping history to repeat itself and that Melbourne will cause a major upset and win this game. The margin will be by a lucky 13 points.

After all, I'm an optimist!

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

THE OPTIMIST... Melbourne will cause a major upset and win this game. The margin will be by a lucky 13 points.

After all, I'm an optimist!

You and Kiss of Death in the HUN.

Hope you're right against all the odds!

[Apocalypse XXXI 243]

You and Kiss of Death in the HUN.

Hope you're right against all the odds!

Jeff White omitted, Carroll not selected and Junior injured. It certainly marks a changing of the guard.

Is this one of our youngest teams ever?

[H_T 3,049]

Jeff White omitted, Carroll not selected and Junior injured. It certainly marks a changing of the guard.

Is this one of our youngest teams ever?

I reckon it could be. Don't bank on Carroll returning this year either........

[deanox 9,989]

Jeff White omitted, Carroll not selected and Junior injured. It certainly marks a changing of the guard.

Is this one of our youngest teams ever?

Apocalypse, I figured these out for you, but was reading multiple threads at once and posted it in the wrong thread...

with white and mcdonald gone, our average games played by this weeks team drops to 57.5 while the average age is 23 and 2 months. with wheelan, miller, wheatly, green and bruce being our only 100+ gamers. and only 3 (mclean, davey and jamar) who have played more than 50 games. that means 14 of our players have played under 50 games. i wonder when the last time we fielded a side without a 200 gamer was?

also i noticed its a bit scary that jamar is the 8th most experienced player (in games) in the mfc line up tomorrow. and that 14 of our players will be 23 or under.

[MO FINE 171]

Apocalypse, I figured these out for you, but was reading multiple threads at once and posted it in the wrong thread...

with white and mcdonald gone, our average games played by this weeks team drops to 57.5 while the average age is 23 and 2 months. with wheelan, miller, wheatly, green and bruce being our only 100+ gamers. and only 3 (mclean, davey and jamar) who have played more than 50 games. that means 14 of our players have played under 50 games. i wonder when the last time we fielded a side without a 200 gamer was?

also i noticed its a bit scary that jamar is the 8th most experienced player (in games) in the mfc line up tomorrow. and that 14 of our players will be 23 or under.

Carlton keeps on claiming it has the youngset team but nobody ever questions their claims. They have this old fogey called Judd who's 25

[Jack7 528]

Does anyone remember Paul Gardner in an interview about 2 years ago saying that Sunday will be our matchday,"we want to make Sunday our family day"

He put in this request to the AFL to play as many Sunday games as possible to claim Sunday as "ours",which the AFL granted.

I remember TJ saying he'd rather not play Sundays as the boys couldn't go out Saturday night and it was a big issue on SEN bagging the players for not putting footy first.

I'm really sick of all these Sunday games and i hope Stynesy requests we play more Friday night,Saturday/night games.

I also think it's time the AFL should fixture Friday night double headers.Channel 7 don't like showing Footy live on Friday nights so they can broadcast the 2nd game and Channel 10 can broadcast the first game.

I could certainly handle coming home from work on Fridays,grabbing a few pizzas and beers with the boys and kicking back with 2 games back to back.

Bring back the Dees at the G on Saturdays

[Guest fatty]

Does anyone remember Paul Gardner in an interview about 2 years ago saying that Sunday will be our matchday,"we want to make Sunday our family day"

He put in this request to the AFL to play as many Sunday games as possible to claim Sunday as "ours",which the AFL granted.

My understanding was a little bit different, Jack.

Gardner said that if the AFL is going to give us all these Sunday games then the club will just have to try and make it their own.

Its a subtle difference but important. Regardless, I believe it was the wrong approach at the time and this is proven in your misunderstanding. I don't believe any club would actively seek to play footy on Sunday afternoons on a regular basis.

But I have often thought, that "blockbuster" games could be played on a Sunday (Coll vs Carl, WA/SA derbys etc.) because they would attract a large crowd and television audience regardless. But this would not fit in with the AFL's policy of maintaining a rigged, unfair, inequitable fixture in the pursuit of $$$$$$$$.

Don't blame Gardner for this.

Agree 45HotGood - threads should be merged

[Jack7 528]

My understanding was a little bit different, Jack.

Gardner said that if the AFL is going to give us all these Sunday games then the club will just have to try and make it their own.

Its a subtle difference but important. Regardless, I believe it was the wrong approach at the time and this is proven in your misunderstanding. I don't believe any club would actively seek to play footy on Sunday afternoons on a regular basis.

But I have often thought, that "blockbuster" games could be played on a Sunday (Coll vs Carl, WA/SA derbys etc.) because they would attract a large crowd and television audience regardless. But this would not fit in with the AFL's policy of maintaining a rigged, unfair, inequitable fixture in the pursuit of $$$$$$$$.

Don't blame Gardner for this.

Agree 45HotGood - threads should be merged

The AFL didn't just GIVE us 15 Sunday games this year,it was requested by Paul Gardner and it was granted by the AFL.

All clubs put in their requests for fixturing and most of the requests are worked into the draw.

The AFL didn't just say "Melbourne,you are playing 15 Sunday games this year",bad luck if you don't like it!!!!

We requested it to make Sunday our matchday.

[Guest fatty]

All clubs put in their requests for fixturing and most of the requests are worked into the draw.

I just had a ripper idea, Jack.

How about Stynesy requests that all MFC games next year are played on Friday night at the MCG?

Surely, the AFL could accommodate that!!!

See ya.

[Seinfeld 40]

Super Mac did mention about 2 weeks ago when Jimmy came onboard that they will be requesting a lot more Friday night, Saturday day and /night games.

The only reason we currently have so many Sunday games is that the board requested them.

I can't wait to go back to the footy on a Saturday Arvo and/or night.

[beelzebub 23,383]

I dont mind 3 or 4 Sunday games. ( I'll still not get to them all but thats another thing ) Its all about some sort of balance in all this rather than what seems our permanent booking as the 7th day eventists !!

I dont recall Gardner or anyone going out of their way to request Sundays, more that as a populace we would have adopt it and make of it what we can if that was to be our lot for the year.

There are what 5 effective game times , with the Mondays being less opportune, but we have one We ought to play a few late Sat games when interstate and then really it ought to be a balance of whats left. That of course will not happen for some time., not until our stocks as a team and preople magnet rise along with our "broadcastability"

We have a disproportionate amount of Sunday games. The only real chance is for more of the good ol' Sat ones. One caveat about al this is.. I personally dont mind if most of the Sunday Games are the interstate ones, that doesnt penalise us in Vic.

[Jack7 528]

Super Mac did mention about 2 weeks ago when Jimmy came onboard that they will be requesting a lot more Friday night, Saturday day and /night games.

The only reason we currently have so many Sunday games is that the board requested them.

I can't wait to go back to the footy on a Saturday Arvo and/or night.

Exactly right Kojak,thank you!!!

Paul Gardner & the former board requested Sunday "be our family matchday,we want to make Sunday ours"

Pmac and the current board are submitting to the AFL that we relinquish our hold on Sunday games.

BRING BACK THE DEES AT THE G ON SATURDAYS

[Jack7 528]

Stynesy will request the right mix.

BRING BACK THE DEES AT THE G ON SATURDAYS

[Hulett Packard III 166]

Carlton keeps on claiming it has the youngset team but nobody ever questions their claims. They have this old fogey called Judd who's 25

Today's Herald Sun has some statistics on the ages and experience of the various AFL teams and Melbourne ranks around the middle of the table. I suspect however, that this is based on the clubs' full lists and in Melbourne's case includes players like Neita, Robbo, Junior, Carroll and White who aren't playing tomorrow. If you remove them from the picture, we do indeed have one of the youngest teams going around ATM.

Although we lose Jeff White today it must be remembered that last time he missed a game was against Hawthorn the second time around when he pulled out because of an injury. Our rucks did well that day and I believe that the game against the Hawks which Demon Head mentions in his article was our best for the year to date. So I agree with DH that if we can reproduce the form and the commitment of that day, we are definitely in with a chance of winning.

[MO FINE 171]

Here are the game stats for tomorrow's team - games played to Round 14 assuming the named 22 play:

180 GREEN, Brad

176 BRUCE, Cameron

132 WHELAN, Matthew

125 WHEATLEY, Paul

104 MILLER, Brad

94 DAVEY, Aaron

75 MCLEAN, Brock

62 SYLVIA, Colin

60 JAMAR, Mark

43 JONES, Nathan

41 BATE, Matthew

37 JOHNSON, Paul

36 BARTRAM, Clint

33 DUNN, Lynden

26 JOHNSON, Chris

13 GARLAND, Colin

13 WARNOCK, Matthew

12 BUCKLEY, Simon

12 WONAEAMIRRI, Austin

9 BODE, Jace

3 VALENTI, Shane

1 MARTIN, Stefan

[alpha33 325]

THE OPTIMIST by Demon Head

Therefore, I’m tipping history to repeat itself and that Melbourne will cause a major upset and win this game. The margin will be by a lucky 13 points.

After all, I'm an optimist!

Take a bow Demon Head.

Very few people gave you any credibility and fewer still tipped us to win.

TIPSTER OF THE YEAR!!!