Alwyn Davey

[Redleg 40,843]

Before that he was selfish, lazy and undisciplined. God knows we have that type of players in spades at MFC.

And who is responsible for that?

[Gouga 566]

If you look at the Premiership team over the last 15 years, each team has had one or two or more players who are stars.

We need to build a championship team. I have no doubt about it. Discovering the next Flower won't count for anything unless he has a championship team to play in.

There are plenty of star players who miss out on premierships despite their quality. You say they inspire their teamates to achieve ultimate success? [censored]. The team has to be capable of achieving it in the first place, a star is simply a contributor.

I'd much rather watch a team that is consistent accross the board and that plays for each other than one lone star battle on a wing in a pathetic team.

If you want inspiration look at Lyon, Neitz or even Troy Broadbridge! It counts for nothing without a team capable of achieving success.

[Hannabal 4]

Superstars are great and we all bemoan the lack thereof at the MFC. However, our challenge in the short term is to develop A graders.

Geelong have about a dozen A graders. How many genuine A graders do we have ? For me it's probably our greatest concern and what prevents me from having terribly much confidence in 2008. We really do need everything to go right to play finals footy. A separate thread accurately rating each club's A graders could be quite revealing.

There's no doubt that the draft penalties and the 2001 disaster are impacting now.

Also, maybe someone can find CAC's comments on other club's first round disasters. I'm not sure whether it was prior to the new forum. It's quite enlightening and may be of interest to Robbie.

PS Gouga - even CAC acknowledges that drafting Molan was a mistake. It's about time you do too.

[Gouga 566]

PS Gouga - even CAC acknowledges that drafting Molan was a mistake. It's about time you do too.

Considering he cost us a no. 9 pick and never played a game drafting Molan was a big mistake. When did I say it was it wasn't?

My quote above was people need to get over it. You don't agree?

[Hannabal 4]

Considering he cost us a no. 9 pick and never played a game drafting Molan was a big mistake. When did I say it was it wasn't?

My quote above was people need to get over it. You don't agree?

Injury didn't help, but his career was ruined by questionable commitment and questionable ability.

I'm certainly over it though.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

We need to build a championship team. I have no doubt about it. Discovering the next Flower won't count for anything unless he has a championship team to play in.

There are plenty of star players who miss out on premierships despite their quality. You say they inspire their teamates to achieve ultimate success? [censored]. The team has to be capable of achieving it in the first place, a star is simply a contributor.

I'd much rather watch a team that is consistent accross the board and that plays for each other than one lone star battle on a wing in a pathetic team.

If you want inspiration look at Lyon, Neitz or even Troy Broadbridge! It counts for nothing without a team capable of achieving success.

Again back to my question what makes a champion team a champion team? What sets them apart from the others?

Hannibal is right about developing A graders. We dont have them we need to develop them if we are going to be a champion team.

Its not about a star inspiring the team (though that helps!).....its the fact that they win more ball from contests than the average player and they use the ball better than the average player. They make other more players look productive because they win more contests (less turnovers) and they give other players maximum advantage in going for the ball. And they do it with a higher level of consistency than other players.

Richmond and Carlton are consistent across the Board. Terrible but consistent.

I agree that it is not a lone rider who is a star that will lift a team. Its a few supported by the A graders that have been developed through the ranks. I tell you what though producing another Flower wont be sole answer but it would certainly help.... a great deal.

[Guest MFC4Life]

The question that has to be asked is what Melbourne players would displace geelong players in their best 22?

That is the true indicator of where the club is at.

[deanox 9,898]

And who is responsible for that?

i would suggest it the coaching staff. when players are selected on ability not attitude, on reputation not form, and on overall capability not current (injured) capacity, over the course of a number of seasons, habbits and traits will develop that were not necessarily there to begin with.

[deanox 9,898]

ps robbief i found these links you might be interested in. i still cant find the main thread i was talking about where we did some very serious analysis but if i do i will post that here too.

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...topic=2239&

paarticularly a good analysis by melon22 (post 18) RE drafting rucks

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...topic=8641&

[deanox 9,898]

ok i found the thread i was looking for. no wonder i couldnt find it, it is a 128 post long thread about rhys palmer which diverged into a discussion on drafting.

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...c=8164&st=0

from flicking through a couple of posts worth reading include number 38 (warren dean), 44 (hannabal), combine 56 and 57 and check those out, post 82 (distance demon), post 86 (jarka) is excellent research), post 90 (by me, even if i did start by giving jarka a spray lol)

have a read of those posts in particular. i think they analyse who we have missed over the past 10 years, perhaps you will come back with a slightly different thinking, but i think it is more of a case of which ever way you believe is the way you will see these stats to support, not just you robbief, everyone. and that is a good indication that we are overall line ball, it isnt clear cut which way we are truly leaning. like someone mentioned above, if we win a flag this year suddenly all doubts will be gone. the proof will always be in the pudding.

[mo64 5,853]

The question that has to be asked is what Melbourne players would displace geelong players in their best 22?

That is the true indicator of where the club is at.

Sorry MFC4Life, but this old chestnut of "how many players from team A would get a game with team B?" is a bugbear of mine, because you're purely basing your assumptions on 2007 form, and not on actual talent. For example, put an underachieving Richard Tambling into the 2007 Geelong team, and I'm sure his output would equal, if not surpass that of Shannon Byrnes. Conversely, how would Shannon Byrnes go in a struggling Richmond team?

If you did this exercise after 2006, when Melbourne finished 5th and Geelong missed the finals, what would your answer be?

12 months down the track and the lists have hardly changed. Melbourne has a year which is decimated by injury, has coaching issues, and the players confidence is low. Geelong goes through the year almost injury free, and the players are full of confidence.

If you asked the question, how does Geelong's top 6 players compare to ours, it's a no-brainer. Geelong's top 6 are far superior to ours. But if you compared players 11-22 from the respective best 22's, from a pure talent perspective, any Melbourne player could displace a Geelong counterpart.

[Guest MFC4Life]

Of course, but an any player could play in their 22, even Mark Jamar. So how about I break it down:

Do we have a ruckman BETTER than Brad Ottens?

Do we have backman BETTER than Matthew Scarlett, Matthew Egan, Tom Harley, Andrew Mackie, Darren Milburn (who I reckon is the best of the lot)?

Do we have wingman/midfielders BETTER than Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, Joel Selwood (will be the best player in the comp in 3 years time), Gary Ablett Jr, David Wojcinski, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling?

Do we have BETTER forwards than Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman?

BETTER stands for both form and natural ability.

In both these respects we don't come anywhere near it, not even close.

[mo64 5,853]

Of course, but an any player could play in their 22, even Mark Jamar. So how about I break it down:

Do we have a ruckman BETTER than Brad Ottens?

Do we have backman BETTER than Matthew Scarlett, Matthew Egan, Tom Harley, Andrew Mackie, Darren Milburn (who I reckon is the best of the lot)?

Do we have wingman/midfielders BETTER than Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey, Joel Selwood (will be the best player in the comp in 3 years time), Gary Ablett Jr, David Wojcinski, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling?

Do we have BETTER forwards than Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman?

BETTER stands for both form and natural ability.

In both these respects we don't come anywhere near it, not even close.

Selwood excluded, this is the same group of players that didn't make the finals in 2006. Did they underperform in 2006, or did their natural ability improve overnight?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Both methods have merit. I'd lean towards the Hawthorn approach but will not agrue with DB's approach. After all he is the one that is ultimately responsible, and I know I wouldn't want to have blokes like RobbieF analysing all of my decisions!

Yeah... I think that's where I'm drifting towards... The Hawks approach of getting the spine right FIRST, and having them peak at around the same 5-10 years period. Then the recruiters can take the second step of getting the inside mids like Jones and McLean which, it seems, are easier to recruit accurately from the draft... They don't seem to need a crystal ball to get them right. After that you can think about trading for a talented outside midfielder, a la Trapper.... If being on 'land has taught me anything it's that these players are a dime-a-dozen, whereas the hard ones are like hens' teeth.

Let me start by saying that I don't read this board very often so the proof that you have given over and over again has slipped by me.

That's what I suspected.

Secondly I have read the bold section above but quite frankly I have no idea what you are saying or what point you are trying to make.

It's simple... I've been through this debate over and over with what must be dozens of supporters who have the same opinion as you, and no matter how many stats I and others quote, the people with the opposing view cling to it no matter what you say. You've seen the average length of my posts, if I started quoting stats we'd be here all week... Ultimately it's pointless...

Having said that, you can make all the assertions you like however I prefer facts.

You do? You've only had a couple there, which have been rebutted quite convincingly by others...

The young players we have may or may not be very good or even champions but at the moment they are not, they are yet to prove anything in the football world.

Just as I had guessed, you have refused to address my point AGAIN. These players COULD NEVER be champions at this age. How many players are "champions" within their first 2-4 seasons? How many KP players? Even Judd needed a year or two to start dominating, and he's the best there is. In fact most, if not ALL champion players played their best footy in their mid-to-late twenties. Give them a break for god's sake. The point is NOT that they haven't made it yet, but that they are young and must be given time, as well as help, coaching, leadership, money, confidence, facilities etc etc... You are marking them too harshly, too early...

And how can you say they yet to prove ANYTHING in the football world? Bate was in our top 4 for the B&F and dominated some games last year. Dunn has shown he has pace, the physical attributes, a sensational kick: He'd get picked up if we dropped him, and Juice won MOTY as well as showing some SENSATIONAL form as a future gun CHF or FF. I'll agree that none of them have made it yet, but they have showed more tan "nothing." Maybe you're right, maybe they are not our messiah, but if that's true we need them to prove something so they're worth being trade bait...

Bate, Dunne and Newton IMO are reasonable players but not champions and they have a long way to go to prove they are even 150 game players, you may think otherwise.

I do. None of them have matured to become the players they will be remembered as. Not even physically. Bate is well ahead of the curve, Dunn and Juice are behind, BUT THIS IS NORMAL!!!! You said above these guys are "yet to prove anything" in the football world, and now you say "they are reasonable players." What gives? Do you rate them or don't you? You should decide.

The young players we played last year are mainly untested and time will tell whether they are any good, the same with our recruits from last year.

EXACTLY! So why the pessimism?

So I will close on that note as it seems to me that if you don't agree with the mainstream your opinion is neither valued or required.

Now why would you say a thing like that? I've written what must be thousands of words discussing this with you. Is that not proof enough your opinion is valued? There are posters that come on here and make silly sweeping statements like "Neitz is crap, delist him." They are ignored... you have resurrected a topic that has been done to death since the rumours about CAC's departure started months ago. And you (well... WE) have turned it into a three pager....

P.S you certainly read a lot of things in to my posts most of which I never said.

It's called reading between the lines... I read into your posts that you are almost zealous in your pessimism. Being well structired, thoughful and clearly educated I would hope you could have the forsight NOT to string the club up by the short-and-curlies... Just over a year ago we'd won a final and were very happy with our position... I'm not happy with where we are either, but I look upon it as an exciting time where for the first time in nigh-on ten years we will have the picks in the draft to really set ourselves up in the future... (with the exception of that year we had the priority pick)

We as supporters have a DUTY to stay positive in the critical time... While I applaud your thoughtfulness, I will fight pure pessimism at every turn, unless it is COMPLETELY justified. We'll get called "strawberry fields" by the geriatrics over at 'ology, but at least we can say 'land is gaining momentum...

[Dee Fan 3,247]

You do? You've only had a couple there, which have been rebutted quite convincingly by others...

The facts that I have quoted are irrefutable, they relate to the players we have recruited and the benefit we as a club have received from them. They also showed who we could have recruited in their place.

Just as I had guessed, you have refused to address my point AGAIN. These players COULD NEVER be champions at this age. How many players are "champions" within their first 2-4 seasons? How many KP players?The point is NOT that they haven't made it yet, but that they are young and must be given time, as well as help, coaching, leadership, money, confidence, facilities etc etc... You are marking them too harshly, too early...

I disagree about Champions not being evident from the beginning, I have seen many great players in my time and in almost all cases you can tell if a player is going to be a champion right from the start. Carey, Hird, Flower, Neitz, Lyon, J Brown, Kernahan and others were champions that the football world acknowledged from the time they stepped on to the field.

I am happy to give them time but I have my doubts about the capacity of some of the ones I have seen, I think we throw the term Gun around too often.

I do. None of them have matured to become the players they will be remembered as. Not even physically. Bate is well ahead of the curve, Dunn and Juice are behind, BUT THIS IS NORMAL!!!! You said above these guys are "yet to prove anything" in the football world, and now you say "they are reasonable players." What gives? Do you rate them or don't you? You should decide.

Exactly what I said they are reasonable players and that’s all they are, nothing special and will play a few games but will not IMO be champions. Let’s get this clear you can be a reasonable player and get quite a few games in a relatively weak side and sometimes in a strong side if you happen to fit the bill in terms of a spot that can’t be filled by another player. Have you heard the term the weakest player in the strongest side?

EXACTLY! So why the pessimism?

I have followed this club for 55 years; I have the right top be pessimistic. Over the last 20 years we have had some good sides and some good players but we have never cracked the big one for a number of reasons, recruiting is just one of them. Each year I go in with renewed optimism and after a few rounds I settle in to the realization that this is just going to be another year like the last. However each week I go to the football I expect to win, I have never gone to a game without thinking we are in with a chance.

We both have our opinions on this matter and it would appear that you view it from one angle and I another I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

On another matter I post on Demonology and whilst I agree that the posters are older there they are just as passionate as those on here, perhaps they have just suffered more.

[Diablo 1]

I know I'm not adding anything constructive, but;

I really hate these debates about recruiting. Everybody takes a very subjective view and we ALWAYS end up with no tangible resolution.

[H.B.K 0]

The debates on recruiting are so open ended. There will never be a winner or loser and all we get out of it is frustration. When a player is drafted do we really know he will recover fully from debilitating injuries: Judd and J.Selwood are good examples of players who recovered, whereas others like Sylvia are examples of those who haven't.

The only thing is the outcome will always be the same, we get a squad of 44 players who take us on a ride, be it good, bad or ugly and we as supporters should support them regardless of whether Dal Santo or S Johnson could've been part of it.

[Jarka 767]

ps robbief i found these links you might be interested in. i still cant find the main thread i was talking about where we did some very serious analysis but if i do i will post that here too.

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...topic=2239&

paarticularly a good analysis by melon22 (post 18) RE drafting rucks

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...topic=8641&

Here ia another one:

http://demonland.ugbox.net/forum/index.php...mp;#entry116283

Edit - argh, just saw your next post, sorry to double up

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

The facts that I have quoted are irrefutable,

Your conclusions are not, however.

I disagree about Champions not being evident from the beginning, I have seen many great players in my time and in almost all cases you can tell if a player is going to be a champion right from the start. Carey, Hird, Flower, Neitz, Lyon, J Brown, Kernahan

This is always going to be a matter of opinion again, but none of those players played like champions in their forst 3 years, or under 21... Sticks, if I remember correctly, played a lot of senior footy before even joining Carlton at a relatively late age. These guys were recruited for their class, size etc etc and were regarded much like a pick 1-3 in todays drafts... but again, all took a few years to own the comp... You could argue that people are saying Morton is going to be a champion, but he won't play like one for years... Do you see my point?

I am happy to give them time

I hope you do. In the end you'd be a fool not to. Just because they're not the next Carey doesn;t mean they're not vitally important. There's no reason to throw out the baby with the bathwater... And I realise that wasn't what you were suggesting.

but I have my doubts about the capacity of some of the ones I have seen, I think we throw the term Gun around too often.

Agreed. Champion is a term that only half-a-dozen players should deserve. For example Neitz is not an AFL champion. And chances are none of the players we've spoken about will be. I also have doubts over some things... eg Bate has some great strengths but some crippling weaknesses too... The same goes for a lot of our young guys... It would be nice to recruit a player that has all the pieces in place a la Carey... I think Juice is the closest thing we have, on paper...

nothing special and will play a few games but will not IMO be champions. Let’s get this clear you can be a reasonable player and get quite a few games in a relatively weak side and sometimes in a strong side if you happen to fit the bill in terms of a spot that can’t be filled by another player. Have you heard the term the weakest player in the strongest side?

Fair go... Some of those guys would be excellent players in the future of ANY team. Petterd, Bate, Davey and many others would walk into any side in the coming years.

I have followed this club for 55 years; I have the right top be pessimistic.

Fair enough.

Over the last 20 years we have had some good sides and some good players but we have never cracked the big one for a number of reasons, recruiting is just one of them.

In your opinion. As the two posts following yours suggest, it's entirely subjective. The stats you point out are GROSSLY one-sided and fail to highlight the successes we have had, as well as compare to other clubs... which you refuse to do. Hence my vehement disagreements. But we're going around in circles...

Each year I go in with renewed optimism and after a few rounds I settle in to the realization that this is just going to be another year like the last.

Interestingly, I share your pessimism for this season, but I wrote off the demons for seasons '08-'10 afer about round 6 last year. Given the ages of our players, the state of our list, our place in the premiership clock, I'm resigned to missing the finals ina ll those years, and being under threat of the spoon in maybe one or two of those years... The difference between us is that I'ma ll too conscious of the silver lining on that cloud...

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

agreed. :D

On another matter I post on Demonology and whilst I agree that the posters are older there they are just as passionate as those on here, perhaps they have just suffered more.

That's true. They seem to be a little bit longer in the tooth, and hark back to the old days a lot... but the REGULAR posters on 'land are for the most part of the same age and have the same experience. And I certainly didn't mean to imply they are less passionate... That's certainly not the case...

[Guest MFC4Life]

Selwood excluded, this is the same group of players that didn't make the finals in 2006. Did they underperform in 2006, or did their natural ability improve overnight?

They always had the natural ability. Its just that thier heads in 2006 were at the bottom of a bar room floor.

Needless to say my point is that at the moment we are so far behind them its ludicrous.

Maybe we do have the natural ability to do what they did in 2009 or 10. Who knows? Do you think we do?

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Can I conclude by saying this.

Recruiting is just one area where we have failed; we have not provided the right environment or the right coaching over the last, how many years and that is also part of our problem. Some of this is our own doing and some is out of our control in that we are constrained by finances and other issues.

We don’t have a profile and are considered as just another piece of the furniture by the AFL, other supporters and the Press; we need to change this so high profile players want to come to our club. We have had a decade of Daniher and it has been semi successful, we have played in finals and had some success on the field and in the financial area, but to all intents and purposes we are no better off because we are now down the bottom and even our finances are starting to slip. We held on to too many players that were past it and we are now paying the penalty we should have cut some of the fringe players much earlier, whether that was the fault of the coach or the recruitment department I don’t know.

However, what this club needed more than anything else was a coach that was high profile and capable of succeeding where others have failed. We needed a Matthews or Malthouse, or at the very least a Voss but we got Bailey, don’t get me wrong I think he will be a good coach but he wasn’t what we NEEDED.

The players that we have recruited may turn out to be very good players but they fit in to our profile and are to the rest of the Football World just like us, invisible. I think it was you who said early that if McLean was at Collingwood he would be labeled a star but with us he is just a good footballer.

Anyway I will saddle up for another year and will be there every week as I always am so let’s hope there is some joy for us if not in games won at least in player improvement.

BTW I still think we made a blue in not recruiting Alwyn.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Ok. Now that's the first post where we agree on NEARLY everything...

Much of the problem with MFC at this stage seems to be things that can't be fixed over the period of the pre-season. ie, finances, infrastructure and culture... we were the strongest and most dominant force in football 50 years ago, and now are resigned to being a perennial basket-case, mostly due to 40-50 years of neglect.

The key point here is... are we working to alleviate this? I think we are doing all we can. The MAIN thing we need is to grow lasting success in a list that can play finals, win finals and win flags... Or at least A flag... recruiting short-term solutions like a 21-22 year old Alwyn Davey is not the way, I believe... particularly when we have one already.

The point you make regarding Davey is simple mate....

He tried out with the club, was given an opportunity, and was found wanting. The recruiters aren't magicians... they looked at him, pushed him, and came to the conclusion he had talent but wasn't as good, or as driven as his brother, who ONLY JUST made it into the AFL ranks himself... after all he would have been overlooked had it not been for those last two picks in Harvey and Aaron... Alwyn, at a similar age, looked NOWHERE NEAR like the player Aaron is...

And keep in mind, just 'cos he's kicked a couple of goals and layed a few tackles DOESN'T mean he's ANYWHERE NEAR the player Aaron is. Aaron is now a leader at MFC, and is expected to be in the top 5 players every week.... Alwyn is a LONG way off this just yet. Aaron is verging on being a star, Alwyn has YEARS to go before he gets there... I'll wait 'til he's strung together 3 GREAT years like Aaron has before I start rating him....

Now in the end, you're right... Alwyn looks like a player... And at the price of a rookie selection, he would have been a bargain.... but it's fair to assume the recruiting department looked at Aaron... then looked at our midfield... and thought:

"do we need another Aaron Davey?"

"Maybe that second pocket really needs to be a marking-type Sylvia/Maric"

"Maybe there's not enough room for a slightly built, crumbing-yet-brilliant forward?"

"Maybe we are in more dire need of a gut-running, hard-wroking, in-and-under mid than another flashy front-running forward?"

The difference beween us is that you hold them accountable for missing out on Aaron YEARS before he had proven himself worthy... I think they made the balanced and correct decision AT THE TIME... And I think had we had the selection the dons had we would have snaffled him... As fate would have it they had the opportunity to get him THAT YEAR and we didn't...

It sucks, and it's a shame... but if we picked up EVERY player who came to the demons and trained... looking like a basket-case with talent... we'd be in a far worse position than we are now. That's the upshot of this...

Recruit someone who looks slack... like Sampi and Alwyn who were both overweight but freakishly talented types... or recruit the less talented hard-working types like Martin, Valenti, McNamara and Cheney...

In the end, I applaud MFC for going with the guys with work-ethic over the guys with talent ALONE. The dons used a second round pick for Alwyn, and at the time that's what he deserved. When he trained with us he wasn't worth the rookie pick we would have used... When it came to the superdraft he was...

Like I said... if you look at the stats ONLY on the surface, you are proven right, Robbie F... but Recruiting is just not that simple... And I am "satisfied" if MFC overlooks players like Alwyn Davey if it gets players like Valenti, Jones, McLean, Bate etc etc who I believe will make up the core of a successful team...

So in the end, we agree to diagree...

Good discussion. I look forward to the next one, and I look forward to seeing how THIS one pans out...

We agree on one thing that I reckon could see us ejoying a beer together at the footy... I'm not expecting more wins than losses... I'm expecting to see slow but substantial progress from young players. I went to the Roos/Demons game last year where Juice took MOTY. It was worth the price of admission... Watching Sylvia cut a swathe through the dogs midfield against the likes of Acker was another delight... I'll turn up for that alone...

[Redleg 40,843]

I would be interested to know who Demonlanders think is the best player we have drafted in the last 10 years.

[jacey 333]

I would be interested to know who Demonlanders think is the best player we have drafted in the last 10 years.

Scott Thompson.

[sylvinator 96]

I would be interested to know who Demonlanders think is the best player we have drafted in the last 10 years.

it may not necessarily answer the question exacting as it was asked...

but the best used draft pick if the last 10 years is without a doubt Brock Mclean. He was pick 5, when most predicted pre-draft for him to be pick 12-20 (i followed that draft very closely). Critisized at the time, yet 3-4 yrs later he is the best player drafted that year imo. sure he had a mediocre season last year with injuries, but at 21 he is a genuine star and with his leadership and workethic will no doubt captain the club within 2 years