Chris Judd - betting thread

[beelzebub 23,198]

Eagles are scratching deperately for a plan Z..

There are two sides to the coin of Juddy coming home.

One is ..simply he wants to come home to family and friends

Second.. he's had a gut full of the Eagles [censored]

He's not playing in blue and yellow again.

[Diablo 1]

Eagles are scratching deperately for a plan Z..

There are two sides to the coin of Juddy coming home.

One is ..simply he wants to come home to family and friends

Second.. he's had a gut full of the Eagles [censored]

He's not playing in blue and yellow again.

Definitely Belzebub. What the hell are the Eagles doing? Do they want Judd to come out and say how disgusting the culture at the club is? If they're trying to somehow expose Judd, they can't seriously believe that when the smoke clears, he'll be the one who comes off worse.

[Deetastic 0]

Sports Bet as of 10am today.

Carlton 1.90

Collingwood 3.00

Melbourne 3.50

Essendon 7.00

Richmond 21.00

Hawthorn 34.00

St Kilda 101.00

Kangaroos 201.00

Geelong 251.00

Western Bulldogs 501.00

Seems we are still well in the race.

[Deeatribe 0]

There is one reason and one reason only why Judd to Melbourne has firmed so spectacularly - weight of (informed) money!!!

[Diablo 1]

There is one reason and one reason only why Judd to Melbourne has firmed so spectacularly - weight of (informed) money!!!

Based on what's been going around (that we blew him away with our presentation) we should be just about red hot favourites by the end of the day. If you're going to have a punt, do it now, because pretty soon we'll be unbackable...

Well, we can dream

[pantaloons 2,019]

Not that betting odds mena much in the scheme of things, but given that Darwin Sportsbet only took a portion of one Melbourne supporter's $26,000 according to the paper this morning, our odds would be shorter still had he taken the lot.

[Hannabal 4]

Based on what's been going around (that we blew him away with our presentation) we should be just about red hot favourites by the end of the day. If you're going to have a punt, do it now, because pretty soon we'll be unbackable...

Well, we can dream

Collingwood are still the worry. We're far from home and hosed.

[Diablo 1]

Collingwood are still the worry. We're far from home and hosed.

I don't think they're that much of a problem. West Coast certainly don't have as much say as they're making out, but they seem pretty adamant that Judd will not be going there. I almost think West Coast would rather end up with naught than let him go to Collingwood.

In any case, it sounds like we've pretty much taken the 2nd spot on Judd's 'Clubs I want to go to' list, if not the 1st. If Collingwood impress him more, then we will be there to pick up the pieces when WC refuse to deal with Collingwood.

Anyway, Hannabal, you sound like you're coming around mate

[Jaded No More 67,644]

Collingwood are still the worry. We're far from home and hosed.

Agreed.

But what happens with West Coast? They don't want to deal with the Pies, and Collingwood don't have anything decent to offer them.

Hopefully Judd nominates two clubs; Collingwood and Melbourne.

[mauriesy 7,160]

Sports Bet as of 10am today.

Carlton 1.90

Collingwood 3.00

Melbourne 3.50

Approaching midday:

Carlton 2.00

Collingwood 3.00

Melbourne 3.00

Essendon 7.00

There must be some weight of money for the Dees. Carlton drifting out noticeably.

[Hannabal 4]

Agreed.

But what happens with West Coast? They don't want to deal with the Pies, and Collingwood don't have anything decent to offer them.

Hopefully Judd nominates two clubs; Collingwood and Melbourne.

The biggest concern is if he ends up nominating them as the only club he's interested in. If he goes down this path he'll have to stick to his guns and usually some sort of trade is manufactured.

That said, I have a feeling he won't. First and foremost he wanted to come back to Melbourne for family reasons, and he knows the problems that will arise if he chooses Collingwood. He may want to go there, but if we've allayed some of the concerns he may have had about the MFC, and indeed was as impressed with our presentation and coach as we're led to believe then we remain right in the hunt.

In some ways Judd would look silly if he comes out and says it's only the Pies. Why waste everyone's time ? He's painted himself into a bit of a corner.

My take on this whole excersize is that Collingwood were his preferred destination but Carlton were the most likely. We were on his interview list mainly due to his managers relations with our club and in particular CAC, but we were considered an outside chance. Our best hope was always the presentation and time. Time to have him think about where he really wanted to be domiciled and where he wanted to play his footy, ie the G. We needed to be a credible alternative. As time has gone on we've firmed markedly. But things could still change.

No disrespect to Neale Daniher, but I've no doubt that had he still been coach we wouldn't be in with any hope of getting him.

Bailey is the key.

[deanox 9,662]

Agreed.

But what happens with West Coast? They don't want to deal with the Pies, and Collingwood don't have anything decent to offer them.

Hopefully Judd nominates two clubs; Collingwood and Melbourne.

no way. hopefully he nominates one club. otherwise it will be a bidding war. collingwood can bid all they want to get the price up, but the bids are not binding...

i dont want that scenario at all. it will not be worth getting him.

[deanox 9,662]

No disrespect to Neale Daniher, but I've no doubt that had he still been coach we wouldn't be in with any hope of getting him.

Bailey is the key.

great post. bailey is shaping as a real goer isnt he? i wonder if he can coach...

[Damo 3,244]

Bailey is the key.

I believe he will ask WC to deal with either 2 or 3 clubs.

I think that "lifestyle" will carry a larger weight than most other aspects.

I think his overall choice will be based on theses factors.

(1)He wants a club with no issues, whether it be nightlife or stabilty.

(2)He wants a club that will have a crack at finals

(3)He doesnt want to play Docklands too much.

If lifestyle is his most important factor, i think essendon will shine out from the rest and will be nominated

If finals are important he will nominate the woods, or possibly carlton! I hope we would count as well.

MFC and Collingwood both play the G.

If Bailey has intimated that any lifestyle issues will be traded out (which I reckon is the case), we will be included.

I think the choices will include in order: Essendon, Collingwood and Melbourne.

It then gets to the deal.

I dont think WC will deal with Collingwood. I also think there maybe some big "Lifestyle' issues to come to light from Pieland.

So it will be the Dons or us.

If I was going to bet now, which I wont because Ive invested on us already, I would load up on Essendon.

Mainly because the main reason he left West Coast was to go to a "clean" club.

But if his groin stops him from playing telstra (and does that spell trouble?)

or he doesnt want to drive across town to training(who knows?)

we are home. Sheesh!

[Jaded No More 67,644]

If I was going to bet now, which I wont because Ive invested on us already, I would load up on Essendon.

Mainly because the main reason he left West Coast was to go to a "clean" club.

Essendon is not a clean club.

There is no such thing as a 'clean' club.

[beelzebub 23,198]

If lifestyle is his most important factor, i think essendon will shine out from the rest and will be nominated

Ok ...I'll bite.. this has me curious . Can you expand ? please

[WonnaJurah 5]

collingwood 2.00

carlton 3.00

melbourne 3.00

[CURTIS 0]

collingwood 2.00

carlton 3.00

melbourne 3.00

is this true?

[Coxy 0]

is this true?

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/event/S.../EventID/755407

[Deetastic 0]

So Melbourne continues to firm. We started at $8 last Monday (after announcement) moved to $9 and have continued to firm since. On Wednesday last week I put $500 on at $7.5, because from what I knew at that stage our fair odds were more like $2 -$3. From what I know now our fair odds should be tighter than this today. I would be expecting our odds to continue to firm.

This is an extremely good sign.

[Demon15 0]

So Melbourne continues to firm. We started at $8 last Monday (after announcement) moved to $9 and have continued to firm since. On Wednesday last week I put $500 on at $7.5, because from what I knew at that stage our fair odds were more like $2 -$3. From what I know now our fair odds should be tighter than this today. I would be expecting our odds to continue to firm.

This is an extremely good sign.

IMO - start planning the spend.

[Damo 3,244]

Ok ...I'll bite.. this has me curious . Can you expand ? please

There is plenty of whispers about a couple of MFC, carlton and Collingwood players.

I havent heard anything about essendon.

Maybe others have.

I dont see why there wouldnt be a clean club.

Just because our own backyard may be a bit whiffy doesnt mean all clubs have issues.

[deanox 9,662]

wasnt mcphee out with sylvia and didak? that implicates three clubs at once...

[Jaded No More 67,644]

There is plenty of whispers about a couple of MFC, carlton and Collingwood players.

... and Essendon.

There are whispers surrounding every club, because to put simply, there are young, impressionable players at every club who are overawed by their new paycheck and lifestyle.

No club is immune from drug use, and I can't see how Judd would be able to judge whether a club is, or isn't involved with drugs.

[Brocky For President 0]

Only 4 hours left in the Sportsbet.

Does this mean he could be making his decision at 7:30 2nite????