GWS’s experience won them the crucial moments at the end. If AJ had slotted his last shot we would have won. That’s footy.  
 

You can overanalyse everything to death. We had an opportunity to beat a premiership fancy and fluffed it. Still so much to be positive about. 

1 hour ago, TheWiz said:

The wind was really peculiar. Very strong and random gusts.

The flags above the ground were clearly all blowing punt road end ferocously but the rain was falling towards the city road end and the ball was travelling much further towards the city road end. 

13 minutes ago, deegirl said:

In AJ’s defence it was a strong wind at ground level & it made that shot much harder than it looked 

Yes the wind was diabolical down that end. In retrospect I wondered if  a set play would have been to keep posession, kick backwards and chip it around to get a better angle. GWS wouldn't have expected that. I always thought a point was a bad option at that stage given their ability to transition from kickout to the other end without us touching it.. I would love to hear the coaches thoughts on our inability to lock the ball in with under a minute to go.

28 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I cannot stand the people messaging me saying ‘oh you guys tried so hard’ or ‘such a great effort’. No one sends that to Cats or Pies fans when they lose. We expect to win every game, that’s a poor loss in my mind. Only way to become a strong club.

Need to look at it objectively of were our list is vs GWS … we are regenerating , both Trac missed so much , Oliver wasn’t fit, loss of Brayshaw,  re inventing the midfield poor loss is the Blues, Port Adelaide, Saints

Edited March 16Mar 16 by Demonsone

35 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

 

I know I'll get shot down for this but gawn again couldn't kick the goals when we needed him. That final shot I wasn't sure if he just fell short or he tried to set it up.

 

I was a bit surprised by gawns run up on that kick he normally runs out on an arc and kicks it through above post height from there but he just ran straight at it. He might have been worried about the swirly wind and trying to keep it low

Loss sucks but still very happy with the kids..especially XL and Jeffo very exciting signs 

Fritsch had a mare. If he was a bit more composed in the last and hit up JVR we win.

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Could not have scripted it worse.

 

Greatest hollywood movie of all time?

28 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

But I thought Jeffo’s defensive pressure was really solid for a young tall and has come along way. I think we’ll persist with him and 2 others but I think Turner will come back for AJ sooner than later. Contest wise I thought Jeffo exceeded expectations. The big challenge for him (and all our forwards) is to draw the footy in good spots by upping his work rate to lead and present. 

I love the way Jeffo jogs at the player with the ball then when they think he's not coming for them he puts on the burners and has really quick closing speed

2 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

Need to look at it objectively of were our list is vs GWS … we are regenerating , both Trac missed so much , Oliver wasn’t fit, loss of Brayshaw, a poor loss is the Blues, Port Adelaide, Saints

Yep, as much as losses, especially closes ones or after being in front for so long, are infuriating sometimes they will just happen. I doubt our players tonight are casually shrugging off the loss. Honestly, after nearly every type of result a club will try and reset in a couple of day's time and get back to aiming at winning next week (and winning as many games as possible for the rest of the year.)

2 minutes ago, Older demon said:

Yes the wind was diabolical down that end. In retrospect I wondered if  a set play would have been to keep posession, kick backwards and chip it around to get a better angle. GWS wouldn't have expected that. I always thought a point was a bad option at that stage given their ability to transition from kickout to the other end without us touching it.. I would love to hear the coaches thoughts on our inability to lock the ball in with under a minute to go.

Yes my thoughts exactly as the game ended. AJ should not have taken that low percentage kick at goal with minutes to go. I don’t blame him I blame our senior players and particularly our coaches. He was shooting from near the interchange bench so no issue with instructions. Players needed to set up behind AJ and chip it around soaking up precious time, looking for a better angle and importantly forcing giants to advance forward to force a disposal and hopefully opening up a few holes in a crowded F50. And if that doesn’t occur put the ball into the forward pocket and out of bounds for a throw in. In short DO NOT GIVE THE OPPOSITION A POINT KICK OUT with a 2 minutes to go!

End of frustrated rant! 

Gutted but happy with the effort.

Just watched the game winning goal for the first time since getting home, and as suspected, just a huge amount of luck in it.

The oval ball literally bounced perfectly for them as they rolled the dice.  One bounce either right or left(pretty common in this game), and we gain control and probably win.  Not to mention an absolute spud ending up with the ball to kick the winning goal.

Edited March 16Mar 16 by Jerry Lundergard

We did not loose the game because of fitness, one less game that GW$, the kids, the umpires, yadda, yadda, yadda . . .

We lost because:

• there was ZERO on-field leadership during the last 100 seconds of the game, and
• the off-field catastrophy of 2024 most definitely, probably, cost us Houston.

So utterly *&%#ing Melbourne.

Edited March 16Mar 16 by Queanbeyan Demon

1 hour ago, dees189227 said:

One another note, the scoreboards at the ground now have a giant windscreen wiper that wipes them when they get wet. It's the most amusing thing ever.

 

Yep noticed that!

8 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

I love the way Jeffo jogs at the player with the ball then when they think he's not coming for them he puts on the burners and has really quick closing speed

Maybe he should use the "closing speed" a bit sooner? Just sayin

 

4 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

We did not loose the game because of fitness, one less game that GW$, the kids, the umpires, yadda, yadda, yadda . . .

We lost because there was ZERO on-field leadership during the last 100 seconds of the game. So *&%#ing Melbourne.

Absolutely spot on

Here is my Stats Files post:

 

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 1, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250108

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Efficiency	69.7	70.0	-0.2
Kicking Efficiency	59.9	59.6	+0.3
Territory/Attack
Inside 50s	56	52	+4
Shots At Goal	29	24	+5
Shots Per Inside 50	51.8	46.2	+5.6
Marks Inside 50	5	7	-2
Contest
Contested Possessions	149	133	+16
Ground Ball Gets	96	97	-1
Post Clearance Contested Possessions	59	55	+4
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	37	45	-8
Centre Clearances	12	12	+0
Stoppage Clearances	24	36	-12
Contested Marks	7	5	+2
Defense
Intercepts	77	72	+5
Intercept Marks	17	10	+7
Tackles	60	71	-11
Tackles Inside 50	9	8	+1
Def One On One Loss %	22.2	16.7	+5.6
Ruck
Hitouts	51	26	+25
Hitouts To Advantage	16	7	+9

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match
Max Gawn	4.7	6.2	6.9	1.4	19.2
Christian Petracca	3.3	9.8	2.1	1.5	16.8
Tom McDonald	5.6	2.4	3.7	4.7	16.4
Tom Sparrow	0.3	1.9	9.0	3.1	14.3
Jake Lever	3.6	2.5	5.6	1.5	13.1
Harrison Petty	3.1	6.1	2.0	1.7	12.9
Kade Chandler	0.5	6.7	2.5	2.5	12.2
Jake Bowey	2.3	2.7	4.3	2.5	11.8
Xavier Lindsay	1.9	3.4	1.5	4.2	11.0
Caleb Windsor	0.9	1.9	5.6	1.8	10.2
Jack Henderson	3.9	3.1	1.6	1.4	10.1
Ed Langdon	5.5	0.3	1.5	2.4	9.7
Christian Salem	4.9	−0.1	2.4	2.2	9.4
Clayton Oliver	2.2	0.8	4.4	1.4	8.9
Aidan Johnson	1.0	−0.5	8.6	−0.5	8.6
Jacob van Rooyen	0.8	1.1	3.4	2.8	8.1
Matthew Jefferson	2.6	0.0	0.4	3.3	6.4
Jack Viney	5.5	3.1	0.5	−2.8	6.2
Trent Rivers	2.5	1.1	0.8	1.1	5.5
Bayley Fritsch	0.8	−1.8	3.5	1.9	4.4
Harry Sharp	0.7	2.5	−0.4	1.6	4.4
Blake Howes	2.6	−1.1	2.1	0.0	3.6
Harvey Langford	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2	3.2

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	6	4	+2
Loose Ball Get	11	16	-5
Contested Mark	1	2	-1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	3	2	+1
Contested Knock On	4	0	+4
Free For	3	1	+2
Total	28	26	+2
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	4	4	0
Loose Ball Get	18	19	-1
Contested Mark	2	0	+2
Contested Knock On	1	4	-3
Free For	2	1	+1
Total	27	28	-1
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	8	5	+3
Loose Ball Get	29	40	-11
Contested Mark	3	2	+1
Contested Knock On	4	3	+1
Free For	15	5	+10
Total	59	55	+4
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	14	10	+4
Loose Ball Get	45	42	+3
Contested Mark	4	3	+1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	3	1	+2
Gather From Hitout	12	7	+5
Contested Knock On	7	5	+2
Free For	5	10	-5
Total	90	78	+12

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.
• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	81.8	74	67%	+7.9
Greater Western Sydney	73.9	77	33%		+3	+10.9

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	29	11.6 72	37.9%	81.8	−9.8	2.82	−0.34
Greater Western Sydney	24	11.8 74	45.8%	72.9	+1.1	3.04	+0.04
General Play
Melbourne	18	10.2 62	55.6%	54.1	+7.9	3.00	+0.44
Greater Western Sydney	15	6.5 41	40.0%	40.4	+0.6	2.70	+0.04
Set Position
Melbourne	11	1.4 10	9.1%	27.8	−17.8	2.52	−1.61
Greater Western Sydney	9	5.3 33	55.6%	32.5	+0.5	3.61	+0.06

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	53%	48%	61%	42%	51%	51%
Defensive	47%	52%	39%	58%	49%	49%
Region
Forward 50	22%	18%	32%	22%	23%	23%
Attacking Midfield	31%	30%	30%	21%	28%	28%
Defensive Midfield	25%	24%	19%	28%	24%	24%
Defensive 50	22%	28%	19%	30%	25%	25%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.0 0	1.0 6	-6
Centre Bounce	4.2 26	1.1 7	+19
Stoppage (Other)	3.1 19	3.2 20	-1
Turnover	4.5 29	6.8 44	-15

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	0	0.0	6	6.0
Centre Bounce	26	26.0	7	7.0
Stoppage (Other)	19	19.0	20	20.0
Turnover	29	29.0	44	44.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Score Source	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	26	26.0	7	7.0
Kick-in	D50	0	0.0	6	6.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	18	18.0	13	13.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	1	1.0	7	7.0
Turnover	D50	1	1.0	7	7.0
Turnover	Centre	0	0.0	7	7.0
Turnover	Wing	21	21.0	22	22.0
Turnover	F50	7	7.0	8	8.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	1	1.0	13	13.0
Centre	26	26.0	14	14.0
Wing	39	39.0	35	35.0
F50	8	8.0	15	15.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	1	1.0	13	13.0
Defensive midfield	6	6.0	13	13.0
Centre bounce	26	26.0	7	7.0
Attacking midfield	33	33.0	29	29.0
Forward 50	8	8.0	15	15.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
7	7.0	26	26.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	24	92%	92.3%	85.0%
Christian Petracca	21	81%	80.8%	55.8%
Clayton Oliver	19	73%	73.1%	70.7%
Jack Viney	18	69%	69.2%	69.1%
Tom Sparrow	9	35%	34.6%	37.7%
Trent Rivers	8	31%	30.8%	29.9%
Aidan Johnson	2	8%	7.7%
Harvey Langford	2	8%	7.7%
Ed Langdon	1	4%	3.8%	0.7%
Christian Salem	0	0%	0.0%	12.3%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.5%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	0.0%	17.8%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	77	75%	75.5%	81.1%
Aidan Johnson	25	25%	24.5%
Harrison Petty	0	0%	0.0%	7.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0%	0.0%	17.6%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2025)	To Adv. % (2024)
Max Gawn	77	46	15	32.6%	27.9%
Aidan Johnson	25	5	1	20.0%
Harrison Petty	0	0	0		24.4%
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0	0		24.7%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Lachlan Keeffe	75	14	4
Callum M. Brown	27	12	3

We looked completely gassed in the last quarter. Combination of new faces and the extra week up the sleeve for GWS was a deciding factor IMV.

AJ competed manfully in the last but was struggling to get to contests. Those he did attend, I loved his aggression.

Was super impressed by Lindsay too, and all our debutants gave good accounts of themselves. 

Too many regulation set shots missed though. Gawn (20m out) and Sparrow (40m out) early on and Fritta's snap early second, we really should be nailing those. Even one of them goes through and we win.

Was really happy with our centre clearance work, particularly early on. We really went for those pure, out the front clearances, and for the most part we converted them into scores.

Play like we did today and we'll win more than we lose this year. 

4 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

We did not loose the game because of fitness, one less game that GW$, the kids, the umpires, yadda, yadda, yadda . . .

We lost because there was ZERO on-field leadership during the last 100 seconds of the game. So *&%#ing Melbourne.

Watch the last play again. There was a lot of luck in that, that was no set play and we were literally a roll of the ball from regaining possession twice if not 3 times.

I know I am in the minority around here with how we will go this season but despite a lot of positives today we still lost. If we are to make finals this year we can’t afford to lose the close ones. 
 

XL with an amazing debut looked like a seasoned pro. 
 

Kozzy and McVee could well be two of our three most important players, we lack X factor and a gun lock defender without them. 
 

Looking forward to watching the development of our youngsters this year. 

6 minutes ago, Jerry Lundergard said:

Just watched the game winning goal for the first time since getting home, and as suspected, just a huge amount of luck in it.

The oval ball literally bounced perfectly for them as they rolled the dice.  One bounce either right or left(pretty common in this game), and we gain control and probably win.  Not to mention an absolute spud ending up with the ball to kick the winning goal.

But we had a guy down our end who couldn't!!!!

13 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Fritsch had a mare. If he was a bit more composed in the last and hit up JVR we win.

He should have gone for goal. He had to pick out roo with a tricky kick - open goal square 40 metres our have a ping and let it slide thru.

50 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

The thing that annoys me is when we kick it down the line to max either van rooyen or Johnson were right there to & they need to take there opponent away so they can't get up and compete against max in the marking contest 

They do their job. its the way we setup for the ground ball and are unable to create a stoppage or win a ground ball. infuriating. 

2 minutes ago, ANG13 said:

I know I am in the minority around here with how we will go this season but despite a lot of positives today we still lost. If we are to make finals this year we can’t afford to lose the close ones. 
 

XL with an amazing debut looked like a seasoned pro. 
 

Kozzy and McVee could well be two of our three most important players, we lack X factor and a gun lock defender without them. 
 

Looking forward to watching the development of our youngsters this year. 

And most likely off to WA next year