Again, 2021 vibes and I am SUPER glad that we are being underrated I think it sits with out group much better than being rated-highly -- PPL look at the ladder and start their analysis there its just lazy but true, opposed to looking at actual record, difficulty of draw, ease of new draw, injuries etc so as a Punter I plan to take full advantage wherever possible.

41 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

How about Geelong who dipped to 12th in 2023?

4 minutes ago, #11-TonyAnderson said:

How about Geelong who dipped to 12th in 2023?

Didn’t even make the GF, which all of us want the MFC to do.

They also have a few things in their favour over us: a salary cap that never seems to get close due to ‘outside’ sponsorships and land suddenly becoming available to potential players, a training ground that is perpetually redeveloped and funded by others (benefit to the community my 🫏).

Odds in AFL betting relates directly to each team's fanbase IMHO. GWS could have the best list in the league but low supporter numbers means fewer people backing them compared to the Filth or the other big fan bases

There is no doubt that the 2025 season is going to be the most even comp we have seen.  The last couple of years we have seen the gap get closer from top to bottom.

All about early wins, get the confidence, win the close games and finish strong.

It will be interesting to see the so called experts top 8, most will have us 10th or below and Collingwood top 6, I think it will be other way around.

3 hours ago, Earl Hood said:

We have the cattle to be top 4 but so much depends on the game plan. If we don’t adapt to the way the game is now being played we will have the likes of Fremantle, Collingwood and Brisbane running rings around us yet again. 

Spot on @Earl Hood the game has transformed since our premiership.

The cattle are good, how well they move together will be the big question.

And of course injuries. But I feel we've got better options now if we lose the likes of May, Lever or Gawn.

Who cares. Let's just wait and see.

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Because we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Some of them in quite frankly embarrassing and un Melbourne like and un Goodwin like (in terms of the majority of his coaching tenure) fashion.

This is it. It's not just that we finished fifth last, which is bad. It's how wildly unpredictable we became. 

A fantastic win against Geelong, followed by a now-familiar Carlton loss, followed by being pantsed by a West Coast side that won just 4 other games (and ended up with a percentage in the 60s), then cruising past St Kilda, then putting in easily one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a Melbourne team (pound for pound) against Fremantle, then completely failing to "bounce back" against Collingwood, then returning from a bye to barely scrape home against North... 

...all over the shop. 

And if the answer is "injuries", a pretty reasonable response would be "where was the depth to at least stem the bleeding"? We lost to Fremantle by 15 goals and I think most observers thought it could have been a LOT more. That was with Gawn, May, Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Pickett, Rivers and Fritsch. 

Why would you predict us to have a good season... unless you desperately wanted it? 

Because our best players will play unhindered? We all hope so. Is that enough a full three years after a flag? The '21 Premiership was unexpected because we'd had so little finals experience, but not from an age profile. 

Because our kids are particularly good? Fans of every club are excited about their under 23s - it's what fans do... and rightly so. (I'm genuinely delighted that the draft fell in such a way that we got Harvey Langford.) But this can become myopic. Is the evidence strong that our kids are WAY better than everyone else's? It's possible. Not sure if it's probable. 

Because the game plan will change? It HAS to, but it can take a long time to iron out wrinkles in a new way of playing. 

To be honest, I don't really care what supposed experts think our chances are. But I'm not shocked that very few think we'll make the eight. 

PS: On a completely unrelated note I was absolutely certain the player in the OP's profile pic was Andrew Obst until I saw the incongruous Zurich sponsor logo. 

Edited January 28Jan 28 by The Taciturn Demon

I think we are very capable of making it back into finals. we will miss ANB no doubt but Petracca and Oliver is where some real improvement will come from plus some elite youngsters coming through. I feel we now have genuine back up for Gawn. 

In terms of the midfield i think Pickett and Rivers will add a real point of difference, playing more minutes in there, not just cameos. 

We may lack some speed down back but Windsor and who knows, Lindsay may help with that a lot. I also think Melksham after a full pre-season my surprise up forward. 

I think finals is quite achievable. 

46 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

And if the answer is "injuries", a pretty reasonable response would be "where was the depth to at least stem the bleeding"? We lost to Fremantle by 15 goals and I think most observers thought it could have been a LOT more. That was with Gawn, May, Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Pickett, Rivers and Fritsch. 

 

Yeah I think the most disturbing thing about that game (and the WC loss) was that we had a bloody strong side. I think only Lever missed the Freo debacle.

The injuries came later in the season.

2 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

Collingwood '23
Richmond 17
Sydney 12
geelong 07 ............

 

We've all heard and read so many predictions and similar. For better or worse while it's lovely to hear how good our team or individual players or coach or culture or whatever is there is only one thing that matters....results! I don't care if some thought we were the 2nd best team in 2018 or tipped us for the flag in the subsequently horrible season after or said Melbourne was really only the 6th best team in 2021 (or the nonsense that it was a 'Covid Cup'). Let the media and general public or even Goody after each game say whatever; I just want to see us win as many games as possible and hopefully again surprise  the whole football world, just 4 years after the droughtbreaker. 

Who is Dee and why is she being seriously underrated? 

15 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

Collingwood '23
Richmond 17
Sydney 12
geelong 07 ............

 

All 4 were entering their window.

3 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

All 4 were entering their window.

And why have we left ours? We have most the GF side plus it looks like we've topped up well in the last couple of years plus some of young GF players can still improve.

Also Sydney went within a bee's whisker of back-to-back flags 6 years earlier while Collingwood went from a 4 or 5 goal-lead to a tiny loss in the GF then 5 years after they atoned. Were they both "entering"?

11 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

Who is Dee and why is she being seriously underrated? 

She did go into a lot of horror films after E.T., which critics tend to downplay. :)

21 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

And why have we left ours? We have most the GF side plus it looks like we've topped up well in the last couple of years plus some of young GF players can still improve.

Also Sydney went within a bee's whisker of back-to-back flags 6 years earlier while Collingwood went from a 4 or 5 goal-lead to a tiny loss in the GF then 5 years after they atoned. Were they both "entering"?

The 12 Swans were a vastly different one to the 05 team, as were the filth under McCrae.

We appear to be on a downward trajectory. You can get as defensive as you want, but that’s the way it appears. As for ‘most’ of the GF side, Gawn and May are the wrong side of 30 (2 massive factors). Brown, Jackson, Hibberd, ANB, Gus all missing who all played significant roles in the back end of 2021.

Like I said, I’d love for nothing more than for us to salute or make the GF, but we don’t appear to be trending that way and there will need to be a monumental shift for us to contend again so soon.

Forget about past patterns. We start 2025 with a clean slate and a line-up much improved already if Trac and Oliver fire up at their best.

As long as our injury toll is reasonable, we have enough elite talent and some improving young guns to take on anyone.

With some added depth at Casey, it should also be possible to give Max, May and possibly even Viney a break or two to prevent burnout, particularly in the second half of the season.

Of course any prediction made in January can look mind-blowingly stupid by September, but I genuinely think that at our best we are a top-four chance.

1 hour ago, Demon Disciple said:

The 12 Swans were a vastly different one to the 05 team, as were the filth under McCrae.

We appear to be on a downward trajectory. You can get as defensive as you want, but that’s the way it appears. As for ‘most’ of the GF side, Gawn and May are the wrong side of 30 (2 massive factors). Brown, Jackson, Hibberd, ANB, Gus all missing who all played significant roles in the back end of 2021.

Like I said, I’d love for nothing more than for us to salute or make the GF, but we don’t appear to be trending that way and there will need to be a monumental shift for us to contend again so soon.

I don't think you're being aggressive or I'm being defensive. It's just a slight difference of opinion. Except when injured Gawn keeps making the All-Australian team and while May probably won't be AA this year I bet a lot of teams would love him in their backline. Also he played the GF on one leg. Age stops every player eventually but no reason why both can't be major players at least for another year or two. And could not the likes of Windsor, Roo, Langford, an improving Rivers etc make up for those who left? You said Swans and Pies changed a lot (which I'd be happy for your to elaborate on... some reasons are obvious). Can't our changes also have us playing close to our 21 standard? Anyway our predictions will likely count for nothing and either of us  could be way off. I wouldn't have tipped Dog, Tiges (in 17), Eagles, Demons or Cats in recent flag years NOR the premiership hangovers plus myriad other team fortunes recently. The great thing about footy is that Lions, Dees and Roos supporters at this moment can all believe they will win the flag and they at least can't be proven wrong. Pre-season is all hope, hope, hope!

Gawn and May, as great as they have been, can’t continually be relied upon to remain as key pillars, players need to come through (our backline which was our rock in 2021 and for much of 2022&3 are aging, with few quality players coming through imo).

The game now necessitates at least 2 half decent KPF’s, we had TMAC who played out of his skin in 2021 & Brown towards the finals. We only have JVR atm as being half decent (Fritsch would be so much more damaging as the third forward). Gus is irreplaceable as both a player and leader at the club, with his absence exposing a lack of uncompromising players willing to give 100% for little personal reward. Gawn needs decent back-up support which Grundy failed to be, Jackson was forward/ruck…….not sure how Campbell will go as a resting forward. As for Pig, he played a more pivotal role in our backline than even we realised, as he could both defend his man, yet be a rebounding weapon. First year player’s shouldn’t be asked to replace such quality.

Swans midfield in 2012 had completely regenerated, and the Pies under McRae adopted a much different game plan than Buckley.

you are obviously are an optimist @Go Ds, I’d consider myself more a realist, which most would classify as pessimistic (but 30+ years of being a Dees supporter would do that to any relatively sane person).

As good a place as any:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-good-home-truths-the-pre-season-trip-that-could-turn-things-around-for-melbourne-20250128-p5l7nx.html

44 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

Gawn and May, as great as they have been, can’t continually be relied upon to remain as key pillars, players need to come through (our backline which was our rock in 2021 and for much of 2022&3 are aging, with few quality players coming through imo).

The game now necessitates at least 2 half decent KPF’s, we had TMAC who played out of his skin in 2021 & Brown towards the finals. We only have JVR atm as being half decent (Fritsch would be so much more damaging as the third forward). Gus is irreplaceable as both a player and leader at the club, with his absence exposing a lack of uncompromising players willing to give 100% for little personal reward. Gawn needs decent back-up support which Grundy failed to be, Jackson was forward/ruck…….not sure how Campbell will go as a resting forward. As for Pig, he played a more pivotal role in our backline than even we realised, as he could both defend his man, yet be a rebounding weapon. First year player’s shouldn’t be asked to replace such quality.

Swans midfield in 2012 had completely regenerated, and the Pies under McRae adopted a much different game plan than Buckley.

you are obviously are an optimist @Go Ds, I’d consider myself more a realist, which most would classify as pessimistic (but 30+ years of being a Dees supporter would do that to any relatively sane person).

I have to work at being optimistic. I'm not even sure I really am. I'd just rather savour the good Dees moments and try as much as possible to shrug off the bad. Sport should provide joy more than misery. (BTW I've had over 40 years - 45 - of following our ups and downs. Admittedly there were a lot of ups from '87 to '94 along the way. But anyway I know I'm not the only optimistic supporter of 30+ years.)

Anyway, peace -we're on the same side.

7 hours ago, drdrake said:

There is no doubt that the 2025 season is going to be the most even comp we have seen.  The last couple of years we have seen the gap get closer from top to bottom.

All about early wins, get the confidence, win the close games and finish strong.

It will be interesting to see the so called experts top 8, most will have us 10th or below and Collingwood top 6, I think it will be other way around.

Sorry, but I can see Richmond getting belted in quite a few games and generally uncompetitive for the next year or two.  I know they've drafted a bunch of talent, but I think history has shown that putting a bunch of talented kids up against men week in, week out that they can't bridge the gap between youth and experience, developing and age hardened mature bodies.  Thinking of examples like North in recent times, but even Gold Coast and GWS, who had ridiculous draft riches and priority talent at their disposal.  Then, there's always one or two sides that either fall away and/or have a horid season with injuries and drop way down in competitiveness.

As much as the draft, salary cap etc even things up, I think having only 40 odd players per team on a list means that beyond best 22, there can be a relative shallowness of ready to play talent on most lists which will provide a spectrum of competitiveness across the league given age profiles and injuries etc.

Edited January 28Jan 28 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

15 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Yeah I think the most disturbing thing about that game (and the WC loss) was that we had a bloody strong side. I think only Lever missed the Freo debacle.

Yep. My memory is that the West Coast lost felt as if it came completely out of the blue. In hindsight it was probably the moment most of us began to realise Oliver was a shadow of his former self - the good early games were an aberration. 

For me I think it was also the time when I went from having nagging doubts about the big-name midfield to realising whatever it's doing, and however it's coached, it longer works consistently. 

WHO

 

 

 

 

CARES?