2025 Ladder Predictor

[Roost it far 8,766]

9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

My early prediction is predicated on the following:

• At least 3 teams must go and in and out of the 8 each year.
• I hate Collingwood as much as the next person but it would be unacceptable if they don't finish top 2 given their recruitment for the now.
• One of Carlton or Bulldogs must miss the 8 due to at least one elimination final loser dropping out the next year (since we became an 18 club league in 2012)
• People will blast me for this but I expect us to miss the 8. Far too many question marks heading into 2025 and so many things need to align for us to win 14 games or 13 with an excellent percentage.

 

1) Collingwood 

2) Brisbane

3) GWS

4) Fremantle

5) Adelaide

6) Hawthorn

7) Carlton

8) Sydney

---------------

9) Geelong

10) Port Adelaide

11) Western Bulldogs

12) Melbourne

13) Gold Coast

14) St Kilda

15) West Coast

16) Essendon

17) North Melbourne

18) Richmond

 

 

Collingwood on top……I’ve got money to say that doesn’t happen 

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,004]

18 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Collingwood on top……I’ve got money to say that doesn’t happen 

Hope you’re right and I’m wrong but I feel as though they had an off year by their standards (aside from taking care of business against us twice) and will be far more consistent next year.

If Brisbane are hungry for 24 rounds, then they could realistically finish 1st by 3 or so games but it’s hard for a reigning premier to be up for so long the following year.

[DubDee 26,189]

1. Brisbane 

2. Carlton

3. Fremantle

4. Collingwood

5. Melbourne

6. Sydney

7. GWS

8. Adelaide

[Roosiah 50]

1st - giants. At some point all that talent has to click. Prelim shows they’re ready 

2nd - DEES!! Trac fit, Oliver fit, Langford to play 60:40 forward:mid swapping with trac as the midfielder with both able to kick 30 goals each balances the loss of brayshaw in the mid rotation. Easier draw due to our [censored] ladder position despite winning 11 games. Even Goodie can’t stuff up such a golden hand!

3rd: Carlton: best individuals but not a team so won’t win a flag

4th: Freo - too good a list to not make it

5th - Brisbane - not serious enough to back up, can’t make top 4 without Daniher to fire when needed

6th - Suns: surely with their list it’s time 

7th - Port. Hate to say it as someone living in SA but with Dixon gone their forward line will be better balanced but they have no depth and therefore susceptible to injuries. Hate to say it but may finish higher if no injuries

8th - Geelong simply because they keep making it

9th - 13th:

any combination of:

Sydney - GF runner up crash drops them out. Few teams buck the trend but  Brisbane managed it?

Collingwood - getting too old through key positions 

Bulldogs - exceptional forward line and good starting midfield (depth non existent) beats lower sides but not good sides

North - starting to build a very good list. Expect improvement 

14th - 18th

Any combination of:

Hawthorn - Melbourne circa 2019 when we came from the clouds in 2018 and then teams put focus on us but we just expected it to happen the next year but we struggled 

Crows - ok midfield, ok forward line, ok back line, recruitment in last few years has not been good

St Kilda - other then Ross the boss who do they have?

Eagles - Have home team advantage but Harley can’t win them many games without it

Essendon - Rebuild No 4?

Richmond: in trouble for a few more years. Yze will could be a great coach but I don’t know if he can survive leading such a [censored] list 😕

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,435]

I also think we’ve got too much talent and a gift of a draw to miss the 8, but it will all be for nothing if we can’t beat Collingwood (mental)), Freo (gameplan),  Brisbane (gameplan) etc throughout the home and away season. I was thinking I’d hate to make by beating the weaker sides and losing to the top sides, but we always make what should be a regulation win over a bottom side hard work or even a loss re West Coast last year.

[Sir Why You Little 37,220]

23 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I also think we’ve got too much talent and a gift of a draw to miss the 8, but it will all be for nothing if we can’t beat Collingwood (mental)), Freo (gameplan),  Brisbane (gameplan) etc throughout the home and away season. I was thinking I’d hate to make by beating the weaker sides and losing to the top sides, but we always make what should be a regulation win over a bottom side hard work or even a loss re West Coast last year.

There isn’t much between the Comp now 

I consider every game hard to win now 

[58er 6,642]

37 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

There isn’t much between the Comp now 

I consider every game hard to win now 

Agree SWYL no game is given. 

We were 2 wins off 9th and 2% with all that happened.

Quick rebound is quite possible like in 2020/21 after 2019. 

Always need to look at circumstances reasons and ability to react. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,220]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

Agree SWYL no game is given. 

We were 2 wins off 9th and 2% with all that happened.

Quick rebound is quite possible like in 2020/21 after 2019. 

Always need to look at circumstances reasons and ability to react. 

The bottom sides have talent now, North may win 6-8 games next season, but there could easily be 5 close losses

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,435]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

Agree SWYL no game is given. 

We were 2 wins off 9th and 2% with all that happened.

Quick rebound is quite possible like in 2020/21 after 2019. 

Always need to look at circumstances reasons and ability to react. 

I hate this stat, we were absolutely dismantled by Freo, was an embarrassment. Are still mentally beaten by Collingwood before the first bounce. Does nearly beating the Lions at the Gabba change that? 

[Sir Why You Little 37,220]

22 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I hate this stat, we were absolutely dismantled by Freo, was an embarrassment. Are still mentally beaten by Collingwood before the first bounce. Does nearly beating the Lions at the Gabba change that? 

We deserved to be 14th last year 

It was needed. The serious review was needed…

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,004]

27 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I hate this stat, we were absolutely dismantled by Freo, was an embarrassment. Are still mentally beaten by Collingwood before the first bounce. Does nearly beating the Lions at the Gabba change that? 

Agreed. We get beaten over and over again by the same sides in the same fashion (ie - Freo and Collingwood running us off the park)

The ladder said we were 2 wins and a chunk of percentage off 8th, but in reality we were miles off the pace in terms of being a finals contender. And we won over half our games before round 9 which tells a sorry story for the second half of the year.

Some of our football in the final 3 months was unwatchable, uncompetitive and un Goodwin like with respect to never waving the white flag and respectability on the scoreboard. In 2023 we lost by 20+ points just once. In 2024 we lost by 20+ points a whopping 8 times.

Edited Sunday at 09:11 by Bring-Back-Powell

[redandbluemakepurple 368]

We were third with a 127% earlier in the year. The opposite of a brave, fighting finish.

[Where Demons Dare 255]

1. Sydney - (Best team of 2024, but failed at last hurdle, contender)
2. Carlton - (A strong team with many elite players, contender)
3. GWS - (Experienced team with good players on all lines, top 4)
4. Fremantle - (Added good players, a very well rounded team, top 4)
5. Melbourne - (Last chance saloon, still has many elite players, a good balance of young and old)
6. Brisbane - (A drop off after the GF heroics, Daniher a big loss)
7. Port Adelaide - (Ken’s last chance, has to make finals, and win a final)
8. Gold Coast - (Surely their time to make finals with it’s strong list)
9. Western Bulldogs - (Another side with a great list, should be in the mix for top 8)
10. Adelaide - (Rising steadily, added good players, finals should be the goal this year)
11. Hawthorn - (A good side, Barrass and Battle makes them a stronger team)
12. Collingwood - (An ageing list but plays a good system, expect a drop off this year)
13. Geelong - (Ageing list, a bit of an unknown, Smith a good addition)
14. St. Kilda - (Some good players, but lacks talent across all lines)
15. Essendon - (Worst list in the comp for many years now)
16. North Melbourne - (Lot’s of young guns, but can’t see them rising)
17. West Coast - (Rebuild mode, has some good players developing nicely)
18. Richmond - (Starting from ground zero)

[seventyfour 1,189]

I think 2025 will be even more competitive than 2024. West Coast and North will both get better through youth experience and recruitment of senior players. Could imagine then getting 5-6 wins each. Adelaide, Essendon and St Kilda will remain competitive (but not that good). I can't see any other teams sliding significantly, other than Richmond, who could go winless.

I think Port will get worse too and Hinkley will resign mid year.

Will split the ladder into thirds rather than exact finishing positions:

• Top six: Sydney, Carlton, Freo, GWS, Brisbane, Collingwood
• Mid six: Melbourne, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn
• Bottom six: Port, Essendon, St Kilda, North, West Coast, Richmond

[biggestred 5,152]

Cats play finals. They're easily good enough to win 6/14 away games and 8/10 of games in Geelong. 

[GS_1905 18]

Dees could place anywhere between 1-16.

Even comp, question marks on unity of group and game plan.

I think we’ll know more about the Dees after the first 6 rounds of not before then. If game plan is largely unchanged then It’s probably in the 7-16 range. 
 

If we do play more direct I lt can still go horribly wrong but I think opens the door to the top 4. Think 2018 ball movement with 2021 defence.

Edited Tuesday at 02:50 by GS_1905

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,451]

4 minutes ago, biggestred said:

Cats play finals. They're easily good enough to win 6/14 away games and 8/10 of games in Geelong. 

They went 6/9 last year, so it wasn't as strong a fortress as previous years.

Agree they will play finals, just hoping it's more in the 6, 7 or 8 positions!

 

[Trisul 666]

Regular season with the whole injuries, fixture, MRP etc caveats (us and them):

Wide Range: 2nd-12th

1/3 Range: 5th-10th

Hopeful: 5th

Predicted: 7th

[jnrmac 20,203]

2 hours ago, seventyfour said:

I think 2025 will be even more competitive than 2024. West Coast and North will both get better through youth experience and recruitment of senior players. Could imagine then getting 5-6 wins each. Adelaide, Essendon and St Kilda will remain competitive (but not that good). I can't see any other teams sliding significantly, other than Richmond, who could go winless.

I think Port will get worse too and Hinkley will resign mid year.

Will split the ladder into thirds rather than exact finishing positions:

• Top six: Sydney, Carlton, Freo, GWS, Brisbane, Collingwood
• Mid six: Melbourne, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn
• Bottom six: Port, Essendon, St Kilda, North, West Coast, Richmond

Port has lost Todd Marshall for the year with an achilles. No Marshall, Dixon retiring and Houston leaving looks like they could easily succumb to pressure after the first 6 or 7 games.

They're my tip to slide the most this year. 

[binman 44,036]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Port has lost Todd Marshall for the year with an achilles. No Marshall, Dixon retiring and Houston leaving looks like they could easily succumb to pressure after the first 6 or 7 games.

They're my tip to slide the most this year. 

And the annual sack Hinkley noise from Port fans will start up.

[Whispering_Jack 30,798]

Article in today’s Herald Sun where a journo has a stab at the first six rounds.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,004]

9 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Article in today’s Herald Sun where a journo has a stab at the first six rounds.

Mostly agree with that aside from the Freo game.

If we beat Fremantle, we’re making finals IMO.

[Roost it far 8,766]

We’ll beat a half strength GWS at the G and roll Geelong, Freo match the kicker, 6-0 for mine or 5-1 if Geelong or Freo get us. At that point the media will be talking about Langford as the rightful pick 1, Johnson being a master stroke and Oliver as equal Brownlow favourite with Petracca. Side articles will include Gawn and Mays durability, Windsor’s total lack of second year blues and Lindsay’s 32 possession 3 goal debut in Round 3 as the best played by a first year player. Even Salem will get an article about his lack of thyroid issues, his beautiful kicking and living with his partner and 2 dogs. Demonland will contain more superlatives than Rojets Theasaurus. It’ll be party time from there onwards. 

[binman 44,036]

51 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Article in today’s Herald Sun where a journo has a stab at the first six rounds.

We open with a bye. 

[seventyfour 1,189]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Mostly agree with that aside from the Freo game.

If we beat Fremantle, we’re making finals IMO.

Our Round 7 game is against Richmond, so we'd be 5-2 if results went the way of the above. Would be a brilliant start to the year.

I'd take 4-3.