Draft night - How it may work out?

[KozzyCan 742]

24 minutes ago, FreedFromDesire said:

Jagga Smith is apparently our favourite, with Harry Armstrong being looked at with our 2nd pick. I know very little about the draft or the draftees, but going by media reports, and the above well researched post, it seems Smith will be gone by our first pick. I quite like what I've ready about Reid, sounds like exactly the sort of player that would compliment our existing midfield and help us change the style in there somewhat. Is he a 'ready made' type? Would he likely line up round 1?

Armstrong doesn't look like anything special tbh.

[FreedFromDesire 869]

14 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

Armstrong doesn't look like anything special tbh.

Honestly don't know anything about him outside of him being a key position player (I believe?).

[FreedFromDesire 869]

18 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

I realize that for a lot of MFC supporters that 'contest' and 'defense' are a bit triggering with how its talked about from the club, and players and combining that with our boring playing style. Which of course I don't care about if it means winning games and apart from this season those two pillars have had great success for us the last few years.

Anyway that's beside the point a bit. I'm just questioning this kids competitiveness and want to win the contest. I've watched a fair few Sandy games and he does tend to panic in contested situations. Maybe this is something he can build on I don't know. I feel he mostly just cruises around. His cute little handbells and floated kicks look great but I don't think it will translate as well at AFL level is just my opinion. Hope I'm proved wrong!

So much of AFL is the ability to win one-on-one contests and I think as an MFC player we've drafted so well the last few years finding players who really strive in these situations. (Kolt, Windsor, Rivers, Koz, Jackson). All of these players have skill and great physical attributes with their agility and pace, but they love the physical stuff too.

Makes sense. Very much appreciate the info.

[KozzyCan 742]

21 minutes ago, FreedFromDesire said:

Honestly don't know anything about him outside of him being a key position player (I believe?).

You can find his highlights on youtube. He looks like he kicks the ball straight but he seems to be operating with a lot of space, taking marks on a lead, not a lot of physicality as far as I've seen. I don't see anything that makes me really sit up. I don't think I could handle using yet another first rounder on an average key forward.

Edited Sunday at 04:43 by KozzyCan

[Ted Lasso 19,067]

My rough guess which will probably be different by tomorrow is. 

1. Sam Lalor (Richmond) 

2. Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane)

3. Alix Tauru (North Melbourne)

4. Finn O'Sullivan (Carlton)

5. Sid Draper (Adelaide)

6. Jagga Smith (Melbourne)

7. Leo Lombard (Gold Coast)

8. Harvey Langford (Richmond)

9. Josh Smillie (St Kilda)

10. Harry Armstrong (St Kilda)

11. Murphy Reid (Melbourne)

12. Issac Kako (Essendon)

13. Jobe Shanahan (Richmond)

14. Luke Trainor (Richmond)

15. Bo Allen (West Coast)

[Adam The God 29,833]

15 minutes ago, Ted Lasso said:

My rough guess which will probably be different by tomorrow is. 

1. Sam Lalor (Richmond) 

2. Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane)

3. Alix Tauru (North Melbourne)

4. Finn O'Sullivan (Carlton)

5. Sid Draper (Adelaide)

6. Jagga Smith (Melbourne)

7. Leo Lombard (Gold Coast)

8. Harvey Langford (Richmond)

9. Josh Smillie (St Kilda)

10. Harry Armstrong (St Kilda)

11. Murphy Reid (Melbourne)

12. Issac Kako (Essendon)

13. Jobe Shanahan (Richmond)

14. Luke Trainor (Richmond)

15. Bo Allen (West Coast)

If that's who is gone by pick 11, I'd be splitting it with GWS for their two firsts.

[Witches Hat 378]

I'm pretty sure Tim Lamb said we're not targeting any specific type with these picks but simply taking the best available talent. I'll be stunned if pick 5 isn't used on a midfielder.

[Demon Disciple 11,926]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We won't be using our first pick on a tall.

[Deespicable 2,712]

2 hours ago, Young Blood said:

I will be really disappointed if we draft Reid with either 5 or 9. I'd like to know where this info is coming from about Taylor liking this guy because he doesn't have the one trait both Taylor and Goodwin hold highest which is ability to compete in the contest.

Has nice skills and vision. Uses the ball well in space sure. But unlike the other top mids in this draft he doesn't like physicality and often gives quick rushed handbells as soon as someone lays a finger on him. I'm sure he might end up being a decent outside mid/half forward one day but he's got so much work to do on the defensive side of his game and competitiveness in the contest.

Below is a particularly average game in Sandy's GF win a few weeks ago. But it highlights just how poorly I think this guy will go with serious AFL pressure in the big leagues.

Huge no for me. With out picks. I think he will slide to the 15-20 range.

 

 

Thanks for this and yes I agree it's not a great advertisement for him - but it's worth looking at other videos of him as well as my understanding is that he got injured early in the GF and that may have affected his poise under pressure and increased his quick panic releases. As I said in my opener, if Smith fell to pick 5, then it would be hard not to go him, unless we really loved the counter offer from the Tigers. Smith and Tauru would be the dream draft, but I can't see it happening.

Edited Sunday at 06:30 by Deespicable

[Mickey 4,590]

We'll get good offers for 5, and don't expect us to take it.

But if there is a real slider available at 9, I'd expect some clubs to out up truly crazy offers. And if it's something like mid-teens and a first rounder next year, or slide a couple picks for a early second rounder, I think we'll have a long hard think about it.

[Diamond_Jim 12,441]

One outside mid and one inside mid please. (not necessarily in that order)

Best available but with good foot skills and speed. Must be 6ft. (We have drafted too many mid size flankers IMO).

(Where people see Thornton Sparrow and Rivers is a big influence. If we regard the three of them as key midfielders you might be tempted to go for a half back)

In all honesty I have no idea !!

[demon3165 2,639]

Midfield players with speed and skill full stop for me.

[Adam The God 29,833]

22 minutes ago, Mickey said:

We'll get good offers for 5, and don't expect us to take it.

But if there is a real slider available at 9, I'd expect some clubs to out up truly crazy offers. And if it's something like mid-teens and a first rounder next year, or slide a couple picks for a early second rounder, I think we'll have a long hard think about it.

That makes next to no sense to me. We want picks this year, not next year. That's why we traded out of next year.

[Mickey 4,590]

38 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

That makes next to no sense to me. We want picks this year, not next year. That's why we traded out of next year.

So, you wouldn't do a first rounder this year and next year? Especially if it's not that much of a slide? Fair enough. If it's still pretty close to 9 and we think the player we want will still be available, they might. They did when we picked up Kozzie in 2019

[The Jackson FIX 2,966]

6 hours ago, demoncat said:

but I think you can argue that his impact in the 3rd qtr has been overstated somewhat 

I have watched that game 8 trillion times and he was the catalyst to the momentum in the centre square. Politely (AND MASSIVELY) disagree

[Demon Disciple 11,926]

I know exactly how draft night will play out. It will set a new record for longest first round selection duration………………thank god our picks end at 9, otherwise we would be up until midnight knowing how the AFL like to drag things out.

Edited Sunday at 09:29 by Demon Disciple

[Redleg 40,695]

7 hours ago, adonski said:

That's a very romantic view

Who doesn’t love romance?

[DubDee 25,218]

5 hours ago, FreedFromDesire said:

Jagga Smith is apparently our favourite, with Harry Armstrong being looked at with our 2nd pick. I know very little about the draft or the draftees, but going by media reports, and the above well researched post, it seems Smith will be gone by our first pick. I quite like what I've ready about Reid, sounds like exactly the sort of player that would compliment our existing midfield and help us change the style in there somewhat. Is he a 'ready made' type? Would he likely line up round 1?

Politely asking if your source has a good track record and what confidence you have in him?

I would not be picking Jagga with either pick. can see him sliding and for good reason 

[Red and Blue Flame 161]

9 hours ago, Deespicable said:

How it may work out – the top 15 picks and the potential phone call that will rock Tim Lamb

Dees stance on draft night

Having agreed to give up next year’s top pick, there’s no doubt in my mind (and I’d say any sane person’s mind) that the directive from Tim Lamb to JT will be to draft both the best tall and the best mid/small fwd with picks 5 and 9. I mean last year we chose a pacey mid (Caleb Windsor) at the expense of the best mobile forward (Nate Caddy) and we backed that up with another promising mid/small forward in Koltyn Tholstrop. We’ve also already given priority to a every-ready back-up mid (Harry Sharp) over a classy but untried back-up tall (Wade Derksen). And we’ve offloaded talls Adam Tomlinson and Josh Schache, so there’s clearly room on the list now for another tall. 

Based on videos I’ve seen, it’s hard not to be excited by the exploits of the Striking Viking Alix Tauru – who has an incredible leap and is only just getting used to playing as a forward after spending his early days as an intercept defender. And dare I say it, but his Nic Nat leaping style is something we need more than anything to spark the lads up at training. There’s nothing quite like an exciting teenager to take your mind off the club’s problems.

As to our other get, it will be interesting to see whether the rise of HokBall means we will want the quickest livewire mid/small to go with the big. I have no doubt JT was planning to take Murphy Reid, although his fear at missing out on Tauru probably means we will most likely miss out on Reid and have to look for the next best player left – and from what I’ve seen so far, on video, I’m actually tipping that JT’s love of the west means he will take Bo Allan with that pick. Here’s how I see it unfolding and some of the big dilemmas facing clubs, primarily Richmond.  

1 Jagga Smith (Rich)

There’s been a lot of talk lately that the Tigers are more interested in Sam Lalor with pick 1, but that option defies belief. Smith is a livewire, small clever mid – an even better version of the clever Murphy Reid you might say – and he starred in the Tigers VFL side in two of his three games that he played this year.  He’s trained with them and they love him. To risk losing him would be a big, big call, but it’s possible given North, Carlton and Adelaide won’t take him (they have other priorities), leaving us as the only potential spoilers at pick 5 before the Tigers pick 6. 

If North don’t take Tauru at 2, then JT would face a tricky decision on whether to pass on Smith as well if he fell that far and get Tauru at 5, but if they do take Tauru, then my tip is that we will go with Smith and add Armstrong, Shanahan or Jonty Faull. 

Whilst in a more logical world, I have Tigers taking Smith at 1 and North taking Lalor at pick 2, if the Tigers decide they want to be risktakers and try and get both Lalor and Smith and go Lalor with pick 1, then I reckon North then goes Tauru and we will have to decide if we take Smith or Reid at five, which we should until … the phone rings on draft night. 

Tim Lamb then advises his team that the Tigers are willing to offer us picks 10 and 11 for pick 5. They may also offer up pick 11 and their first rounder for 2025 – which is a likely top three pick, which would be even more tempting. Lamb would have an interesting call to make in that eventuality. But I’m tipping the Tiges will go the more orthodox route and make Jagga their No.1. And if they do, then the phone call remains a figment of my imagination.

2 Sam Lalor (NM)

Unlike Smith, Lalor has a bit of size about him at 188cm (6ft1in) and he’s shown he can be both the tough mid and the clever leading forward (that crunching pack mark for Vic Country that is on almost every video of him was a super highlight). He also has more goal sense than most of the other mids – he kicked seven on return from injury at APS level. He’s been compared to Dusty (hence why Tiger fans rate him) but I reckon he’s more in the Matthew Larkin in his prime mould – similar vision and awareness, although he’s a better mark than Larkin ever was. Being a bigger mid/fwd, it means the Roos will like him because Wardlaw, McKercher and Sheezel aren’t big-bodied like him. 

The Roos should also be considering Harvey Langford, for exactly the same reason – he has size (190cm) and a thumping left foot kick which is a point of difference for their mids, but his lack of raw pace may see him slide a bit. 

As stated earlier, if the Tigers take Lalor then the Roos may decide to take the big gamble and go with Tauru at pick 2 – a player they apparently like the look of as well, but two months ago he was rated a likely second-rounder at best, so the risk factor is there. 

The other possibility is that the Tigers offer up picks 10 and 11 for pick 2 – meaning they are guaranteed Lalor and Smith. Would the Roos take it, given they could then go two quality talls or a mid/tall combo. I reckon they should, but most clubs don’t as they are inherently conservative for fear of ramifications. 

3 Levi Ashcroft (Bris)

The Tigers won’t bid on him at No.1 because they need the marketing power of keeping the No.1 label, so it’s then up to North or the Blues to hold the premiers accountable. The Roos did bid on Will Ashcroft back in 2022 and Jed Walter in 2023, so I reckon the Kangas might pass on him this time as he isn’t what they require position wise. And if that’s the case, the Blues will definitely bid on him to keep the Lions honest – especially given they are also in the same window.   

4 Finn O’Sullivan (Carl)

The Blues have already given up picks 12 and 14 to get this pick and it’s no secret they want him – Carlton always goes with the footy bloodlines and being Sam Walsh’s cousin will have Lygon St salivating. They will be a little scared that the Tigers will snare him at pick 1, but his VFL form for them, aside from two neat goals, wasn’t exactly exceptional. He did however stand out at testing, so everyone is aware he has upside and he will start as a classy, quick half forward for them, which is what they crave right now.

5 Sid Draper (Adel)

Have a look at his highlights video and you know the guy is quick, smart and strong, although he still needs to work on his kicking prowess – he has a bit of the Clayton Oliver’s about him with his preference to handball. But as SA skipper, he seemed more aware of the importance of using his line-breaking ability at the carnival and his pace is top tier. The Crows will consider the best midfield bull in Harvey Langford, but I’m tipping they go local – big ramifications if they don’t and he turns out a gun.   

6 Alix Tauru (Melb)

As stated above, JT will be told to take a big as a priority and if Tauru is still around because North overlook him, then I reckon we have to take him here. The Saints will surely take him as one of their two picks if we don’t. He still looks a bit like a dear in headlights with his goalkicking routine, but I’m sure with good training from Chocco and our new forwards coach, he will get into good habits. And if he can’t find the goals, he’s a walkup start as an intercept defender in the James Sicily mould down the track (May and T-mac are not exactly young). And the best thing, for those of you fearful of another Jack Watts or even Matt Jefferson is that he loves tackling.

I suspect JT had been thinking of using this pick for Murphy Reid, but solving our tall problem should be the priority. The proviso on this is what happens if Jagga Smith is still on the table or North gambles on the striking viking at pick 2. If North does go Tauru, one of Lalor or Smith will also still be around, and if it’s Smith I reckon that phone call from the Tigers may be made to us. And Tim Lamb better be ready.

7 Harvey Langford (Rich)

With Lalor and O’Sullivan gone, the Tigers will turn to their attention to a player who they have trialled in the VFL and one who finished the season for Dandenong Stingrays like he was Marcus Bontempelli. He’s a powerful extractor with a booming left-foot and being bid-bodied will compliment Jagga Smith, who is the exact opposite. He’s also got a huge tank, but the only doubt about him in this modern HokBall world is that he lacks pace. But Patty Cripps doesn’t have pace either and he’s the best in the game.

8 Isaac Kako (Ess)

You have to assume Essendon had inside word that the Saints would bid on him, otherwise their decision to give up pick 9 to us is bizarre. I doubt he is better than Murphy Reid, but he certainly has pace and leads up well. He also has that dynamic Kozzie-type aggressive style, so he should make an impact in a couple of seasons.

9 Murphy Reid (StK)

I reckon the Saints will be jumping to get their local Sandy lad who has that touch of Gryan Miers about him. That’s a shame because we would definitely take him if he fell to our pick 9 (which will most likely slide to pick 11 or even 12). If JT’s intel is that the Saints aren’t into Tauru then I reckon we will flip and take Reid at pick 6. 

10 Harry Armstrong (StK)

With Jack Steele 29 next month and more of a lockdown player, the Saints will consider Josh Smylie, but I suspect a few clubs are wary of his low-tackle count and Ross and Smylie would clash big time I reckon. And Matteas Phillipou showed good signs late in the year and is a player earmarked for the guts, so another tall option up forward for the Saints would be smart. Armstrong’s high agility rating also would help their confidence as that was Nate Caddy’s strength as well last season. Armstrong looks a classy kick, but I didn’t see too many hangers in his highlights. But he’s quick on the lead, so that’s not crucial anyway.

Being another Sandy kid helps the Sainters community appeal as well!

11 Leo Lombardo (GC)

This guy is freakishly quick and agile and has high skills, but he’s a tad small – a bit like Caleb Daniel in his heyday. He looks to me like a cash cow for your SuperCoach teams next year and will play round 1 for the Suns barring injury. The Saints should have bidded on him to ensure the Suns lose their two second rounders before their third rounder. But I suspect if they bid on Kako they may not want to go again for a player they don’t get, so I reckon it will be left up to bid on him with our next pick. JT loves smalls like him anyway, although the Suns will match our bid in a flash.

12 Bo Allan (Melb)

One of Reid, Smith or Lombard would have been the perfect player to combine with Tauru and solve most of our shortages and help counter Hokball. But alas, I doubt that will happen. Allan is the last of the players who I reckon are certainties to be high-quality impact players and being from WA, it’s a happy recruiting ground for JT. He’s a tall left-foot mid who moves really well and is a decent kick and he’s tough enough to play in the middle as well as off half-back where he will play for us for at least a couple of seasons until he’s ready to go inside. He reminds me a lot of Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson. He’s already had a taste of big games having been handy in the WAFL grand final and as captain of WA ticks all the boxes. In fact he’s so good a prospect, that if the Tigers did come knocking for our pick 5 in exchange for picks 10 and 11, I think I’d have to say yes because we still would get him.

13 Luke Trainor (Rich)

Having set up their midfield with Smith and Langford, the Tigers surely will look at long-term bigs and Trainor is regarded as the best tall defender. You’d have to think West Coast at pick 15 would want a replacement for Barrass at their pick if the Tigers don’t pounce here. 

14 Jobe Shanahan (Rich) 

He’s got a bit of the Michael Roach’s about him and is a very accurate kick. Given his size, I reckon the Dees would also be considering him, but Tauru is more exciting. I really like the look of Jonty Faull as well, but Shanahan’s games at VFL for Essendon won me over. As a footnote, if we did accept Richmond’s pick 5 trade offer in my imaginary world, then we’d take Allan, Shanahan and have a decision to make on Travaglia or Hannaford.

15 Xavier Lindsay (WC)

I reckon West Coast would be a little [censored] that we took Bo Allan and Trainor would have been the right fix for their post-Barrass defence. I can’t see them going Faull or Hannaford, and McQualter will want clever ball movers and Lindsay is a bit of a Christian Salem freak with his precise kicking and will most likely start on the wing or half-back for them.  

Love the work you've done here, but when you have two top 10 picks, you go best player in the draft. So if there are players better than Tauru, he won't be picked then.

[Adam The God 29,833]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

So, you wouldn't do a first rounder this year and next year? Especially if it's not that much of a slide? Fair enough. If it's still pretty close to 9 and we think the player we want will still be available, they might. They did when we picked up Kozzie in 2019

No, we want players this year and next year we'll be banking on White falling in the first round. 

We want to fly up next year and if we don't we let Clarry and Trac go for first round picks anyway.

[Ted Lasso 19,067]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

One outside mid and one inside mid please. (not necessarily in that order)

Best available but with good foot skills and speed. Must be 6ft. (We have drafted too many mid size flankers IMO).

(Where people see Thornton Sparrow and Rivers is a big influence. If we regard the three of them as key midfielders you might be tempted to go for a half back)

In all honesty I have no idea !!

Langford and Lindsay fill these requests and SHOULD be available at both our picks. both beautiful left foot kicks. 

I love the fact Langford can contribute goals and be a good target forward with bursts through the middle early in his career, it just adds to the appeal given we also need help forward. 

I really like Lindsay, he just oozes class and it's something we just haven't really had 

[FreedFromDesire 869]

56 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Politely asking if your source has a good track record and what confidence you have in him?

I would not be picking Jagga with either pick. can see him sliding and for good reason 

Can understand and appreciate the question. It can be difficult to gauge sometimes, especially with draft picks, trades and the like where situations are so flexible, but I would say majority of the time things have come to pass. I have absolutely no inside knowledge myself so I can't judge from the outside in fairness. For example - I was told the Sharp trade was not going to happen as things changed on the weekend where we did the main pick swap, and I posted that here, but then it did in fact happen. So that one counts as a miss, but given it ended up being a protracted deal maybe there was something to it? That information was told to me by the same person who passed on the draft target information, so I guess my best advice would be take it as 'educated gossip' I suppose? If one of the excellent posters like goodwindees or DannyZ posts otherwise I would definitely listen to them instead. Those two are the reason I've read the site for so long for the most part.

[DEE fence 4,989]

Mids, elite disposal please, preferably robust, failing that a key defender if available that can take a year or two to fill out (May replacement).

I am not worried about tall forwards I think JVR/Petty/Melks/Kozzie/Turner and of course Fritsch can get it done. Is more about game plan and connection for my money.

I think this will be our last good run at high end selections at mids for a few years. They are there to be had. Replacing Gus, and to a lesser extent ANB and making up for the fact that Sparrow seems to have hit a ceiling are all factors. Viney, Clarrie are there to do the tough stuff well, and Trac / Kozzie will both be rotating in and out of the fwd line means we still have plenty of spots to fill. 

and when I say elite disposal I mean by foot and by hand, I still think our handball is a issue too, not just kicking. 

 

[Dee Boys 538]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Politely asking if your source has a good track record and what confidence you have in him?

I would not be picking Jagga with either pick. can see him sliding and for good reason 

Well this is just idiotic I’m afraid - “sliding for good reason”. Smith might not have the ceiling of some but his floor is higher than anyone else’s - at worst he’ll be a 200 game A grade midfielder. And his character is absolutely flawless. He’s the “can’t lose” pick of all of them.

[DubDee 25,218]

4 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

Well this is just idiotic I’m afraid - “sliding for good reason”. Smith might not have the ceiling of some but his floor is higher than anyone else’s - at worst he’ll be a 200 game A grade midfielder. And his character is absolutely flawless. He’s the “can’t lose” pick of all of them.

Cheers for the insult

If he is so great, I assume he’ll be gone by our pick