GAMEDAY: Rd 09 vs Carlton

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,950]

2 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Ok game day check list.

Mates invited....check.

Dons franks... check.

Bread rolls... check.

Drinks menu....vb vb and vb check.

All ready.

Go Dees.

Are you saying Frank Dunnell and Aaron Francis are mates of yours?

[jnrmac 20,210]

47 minutes ago, binman said:

JNR, why do you think they have reverted to the territory front half, trap it inside 50 game (basically much the same as our 2021 to 2023 model)?

I mean, they used that model for the first half of last year and  were woeful.

They turned things around by implementing a turnover game, making a prelim after looking certain to miss the finals at the half way point of the season.

Not really sure. I don't watch them enough but I suspect a couple of things:

Firstly their defence is leaky. It needs all the help it can get and playing a fwd half game allows them to keep the ball away from their defence.

Second McKay is playing higher up the ground. He was woefully out of form last year and is a difficult match up further up the ground. The leaves from space for Curnow to operate in. Maybe thats the plan. Carlton have a mosquito fleet in their fwd line like Owies, Martin, Fantasia, Durden. etc So the more space the better

The other reason might Walsh is back and their clearance game they see as a strength. Win the clearance, jam the ball fwd. 

Maybe personnel meant they had to revert last year to a turnover game. It coincided with Voss being almost sacked so its difficult to separate some of the issues.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I’ve just got a feeling (completely illogical) that we’ll get rolled tonight in the second half or last quarter. Is Carlton really that bad to lose 3 in a row or potentially 4? Because I can’t see them beating Sydney at the SCG next week. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel we’ll start well but Carlton will get some momentum and will be hard to stop. Curnow is probably due to kick some on May, while McKay is in ripping form. Their midfield has had a better year so far than our’s and if they get some territory dominance we might struggle to transition out.

If we’re going to win, we’ll need to at least break even in clearance and contested possessions, while we’ll need Petty, JVR and Turner to mark well ahead of the ball. 

[Clintosaurus 7,913]

1 minute ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Because I can’t see them beating Sydney at the SCG next week. 

I actually think they are almost good things against Sydney. The ground will suit their clearance game more than the MCG does.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

59 minutes ago, binman said:

JNR, why do you think they have reverted to the territory front half, trap it inside 50 game (basically much the same as our 2021 to 2023 model)?

I mean, they used that model for the first half of last year and  were woeful.

They turned things around by implementing a turnover game, making a prelim after looking certain to miss the finals at the half way point of the season.

They turned things around mainly via their defence. In the last 6 weeks last year their defence was ranked in the top 3 and their ground ball game was off the charts. People bang on about Carlton’s offensive game but it’s actually when they focus on defence it’s where their game goes to the next level.

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

One thing I can say with certainty, a beer will still cost $11.50 tonight.

Go Demons!!!

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

1 hour ago, BLWNBA said:

I'd also add that Carlton coming off a loss makes me very nervous. I expect they'll come out firing and think that most of their errors and sloppiness which were seen last week won't be seen against us. 

Why would all of a sudden the errors and sloppiness dissipate?

They may be 'up'  for the first 10 minutes, but there is only so long that cortisol and adrenaline can be used before its performance impairing, and you become dysregulated and fatigued, and thus revert back to type, or even worse execution, because you've spent alot of your emotional and physiological tickets...

Actually, I hope they do 'come out firing' - they'll be [censored] by the middle of the second quarter... 😁

Our/Goodwin's methodical grind, has held us in very good stead for 4 years now... the odd 20+ point loss, the odd 35+ point win, it's why we are always, always in games..

Edited May 9, 2024 by Engorged Onion

[Heather 2]

Thanks Bintan for your comments. Last week against Geelong you gave me confidence we could win, along with all the reasons why. Hopefully your reasoning this week on Carlton will also prevail. I admit to being nervous due to the 5 day turnaround, but your comments on a potential plan of attack are giving me hope. Cheers and thanks

[FearTheBeard 1,223]

For those wanting to sit behind the Cheersquad, M33 has just gone on sale on ticketek.

[Skuit 10,031]

LinkedIn just sent me a reminder that today is the Carlton president's ten-year anniversary at the club. 

https://www.consultancy.com.au/news/8767/luke-sayers-faces-heat-over-pwc-whistleblower-complaint

 

[PaulRB 6,427]

I thought the Blues should have beaten the pies midfield and won comfortably given the outs of De Goey and Mitchell.

Given they lost, it raises a big question for me about where they’re at?
Are they too one dimensional?

Can we shift our gears away from drawing them into a dour defensive arm wrestle from the outset ( which everyone is expecting) and come out aggressive and switched on in our midfield and offensive phases? 
Try to replicate Ali’s tactics vs Joe Frazier in the “rumble in the jungle” where Ali tried to knock ck Frasier out in the first… which failed and had him then adopt the “rope a dope” till late in the fight when Frasier punch himself out and Ali struck..

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,638]

54 minutes ago, Chook said:

I reckon we'll be fine on the 5 day break. I think the real hard game is the one after the 5 day break. Ever pulled an all-nighter? It can be done and you often get into a zone. Then you're wrecked the next day. I'm more worried about next week after these two big games.

I agree and given the two extended breaks we got it will have helped get them cherry ripe for this game.

It is also perfect that we get a 10 day break after this game into a game v the Eagles.

We then have 7 day break, 7 day break, 8 day break and then the bye. That is absolutely perfect!

[leave it to deever 17,565]

34 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Not really sure. I don't watch them enough but I suspect a couple of things:

Firstly their defence is leaky. It needs all the help it can get and playing a fwd half game allows them to keep the ball away from their defence.

Second McKay is playing higher up the ground. He was woefully out of form last year and is a difficult match up further up the ground. The leaves from space for Curnow to operate in. Maybe thats the plan. Carlton have a mosquito fleet in their fwd line like Owies, Martin, Fantasia, Durden. etc So the more space the better

The other reason might Walsh is back and their clearance game they see as a strength. Win the clearance, jam the ball fwd. 

Maybe personnel meant they had to revert last year to a turnover game. It coincided with Voss being almost sacked so its difficult to separate some of the issues.

The big takeaway from the cats v blues game was how easy the cats hurt them from the rebound. The cats moved the ball from their backline at breakneck speed and the blues looked powerless to stop them at time. I hope we can do the same. Players like Windsor, Tracca Kozzie  and Langdon should have big nights. It would be wonderful to move the ball like that so Fritta and Co have some space.

I'm really bouyed by Petty's return to form who's was that marking connection we have really been missing. Hopefully Jvr can hold a few more of his and we should be able to dominate this mob.

[Engorged Onion 10,224]

7 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Can we shift our gears away from drawing them into a dour defensive arm wrestle from the outset ( which everyone is expecting) and come out aggressive and switched on in our midfield and offensive phases?

Hey Paul*, my thoughts on the language around an arm wrestle that's often used- is that in fact, it's not an arm wrestle - it's us constricting/restricting opportunities, managing fatigue, to open things up in the second half.

I also don't think that the 'arm-wrestle' style is indicative of us not being aggressive nor switched on, they're not mutually exclusive. Whilst we are defensive/contest team first - the preference philosophically to restrict - we have shown time and again that we can get on a roll with scoring shots..and, at times, they've just not converted.

Anyway, that's my pedantic take...

 

*not really a comment about you, just that language used ubiquitously about our style

[BLWNBA 1,171]

50 minutes ago, Skuit said:

In the 2000s, we played Carlton ten times between our epic win in the 2000 qualifying final and properly bottoming out in 2008

We went 7-3 over them during that period (including our ‘loss’ in the Kreuzer Cup’).

Until last year, they would have a lot more gripes about us annoying them in recent years than the reverse. 

Yeah that's interesting, in light of your comment I looked back at the results and they're vastly different from what I remember, weird how they've left that mark on me. 

Seems like my memory is relatively based on the 2006 results as opposed to the overall results writ large. Some of those larger wins by the Dees I actually struggle to recall. Although from memory the win against Carlton at their farewell to Princess Park was a lot closer than what the margin suggested. 

I have to say the 2000 Qualifying Final is etched into my memory, definitely good memories of that one!

[PaulRB 6,427]

18 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Hey Paul*, my thoughts on the language around an arm wrestle that's often used- is that in fact, it's not an arm wrestle - it's us constricting/restricting opportunities, managing fatigue, to open things up in the second half.

I also don't think that the 'arm-wrestle' style is indicative of us not being aggressive nor switched on, they're not mutually exclusive. Whilst we are defensive/contest team first - the preference philosophically to restrict - we have shown time and again that we can get on a roll with scoring shots..and, at times, they've just not converted.

Anyway, that's my pedantic take...

 

*not really a comment about you, just that language used ubiquitously about our style

I agree. Our defense/ contest game requires us switched on. 
Was more a point on what we lead with in terms of game strategy early. I think that for us to really complete our development of the offensive phase of our game we should be experimenting with starting with an offensive mindset early on, so as to stress test and develop that part of our game. We know we’ll defend well as it’s now in our DNA… but are we ready to see if our offensive overhaul is also ready to drive us to win games as well..?

Edited May 9, 2024 by PaulRB

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,551]

It WON'T make up for last year - but we owe these guys big time. A win tonight will be an appetiser for revenge. 

I think the Blues will be hurting, and need to make a statement to stay in touch with the 8 (and another danger game v the Swans next week), so it will be tough. 

But I'm not convinced by their defence. And while we need to win the midfield battles, I think Viney and Trac are well overdue for big games. Together with a resurgent Clarry, and some good midfield rotations, I reckon we will hold up well enough in the midfield to let our defence to its work. TMAC is in red hot form. Bowza is a big in, his calm precise will be handy, and Lever/May/Judd - not much needs to be said. 

With the forward line, we have all the threats we need - Kozzie does Kozzie things (although hopefully not all the Kozzie things haha), Fritter, Chin and JVR. If we can get some good contributions from JVR, Disco and Petty again (goals, and those big marks up the ground), it will make all the difference. 

TL;DR - Our defence will hold (especially with Bowza back, and TMAC in red hot form alongside our pillars), and our midfield will at least match them - we just need solid contributions from forwards - and to take our chances.

Dees by 18

[leave it to deever 17,565]

6 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Yeah that's interesting, in light of your comment I looked back at the results and they're vastly different from what I remember, weird how they've left that mark on me. 

Seems like my memory is relatively based on the 2006 results as opposed to the overall results writ large. Some of those larger wins by the Dees I actually struggle to recall. Although from memory the win against Carlton at their farewell to Princess Park was a lot closer than what the margin suggested. 

I have to say the 2000 Qualifying Final is etched into my memory, definitely good memories of that one!

 

I won't forget this one.

This bloke could kick a goal inside a matchbook.

Quite a similar goal to his last against cats.

Edited May 9, 2024 by leave it to deever

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,551]

Also, if we win tonight - we have the Eagles (over there, so we still need to be switched on) and the Saints. 

If we can go 9-2 after those games, we will have a vice-like grip on the top 4 - before facing Freo (at home) then the Pies. We can win both, but if we are 10-3 at the bye, that's massive. We have north and eagles again after the bye, Bombers (do not rate them) and the Doggies again. We have a good chance to lock top 4 and launch for top 2. 

They're all big games. But this is a BIG game. 

[leave it to deever 17,565]

48 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

One thing I can say with certainty, a beer will still cost $11.50 tonight.

Go Demons!!!

Afl doing sfa to curb pressure on inflation and interest rates. Play on.

One beer a quarter and you've spent enough to buy a slab. Sheesh.

[Lucifers Hero 40,489]

Not sure of the mood in this thread but if anyone needs convincing that we will win and win well lets compare the teams from the 2023 Semi and this week:

The major reasons we will win:

• Our fwd line of Turner, Petty, van Rooyen is far superior to 2023: Smith, McDonald, Schache (who was the unused sub).
• Our overall line up is far better than theirs. 
• Their best defender Weitering suffered a corked thigh then played the next week on a 6 day break and he could barely run ... very slow.  This week he is on a 5 day break.  McGovern is a lazy footballer.
• There defence struggled to contain our depleted line in 2023, they will do no better this year.
• Superior tactics and what was learnt from the Geelong game.
• Their field defence is poor.
• TMc to follow McKay up field as he did Cameron, May to take Curnow as he did Hawkins, leaving Lever to do his thing.

I could go on but you get my drift.

 

Dees by 3 goals, 5-6 if we decide to inflict some pain rather than close the game down. 

Edited May 9, 2024 by Lucifers Hero

[Lucifers Hero 40,489]

Re umpires:  Not a lot of change (see post above for the changes).   Stevic is a very good umpire.

Had a quick look at Bigfooty and they share our feelings about Williamson: 

• Who are we going to tag #22 Williamson with, he is brutal in our games
• #22. Gives us grief every game.

They made me chuckle!!

 

Edited May 9, 2024 by Lucifers Hero

[leave it to deever 17,565]

I feel more confident having Woey as the sub. Ironically was one his best games last week. But now we have the sort of sub that really can come on for the final 30 and actually have a solid impact. If Bowey manages to play well and run out the whole game, l would not be surprised to see SoSW play up forward with one or two sausage rolls.

[spirit of norm smith 16,596]

Dees v Blues.   It’s another huge test.

Blues lost last 2 and face Dees and Swans.

 My 50 cents.  If we butcher the ball like v cats and v tigers, we are truly “fire-trucked”.

Can’t rely on defence EVERY WEEK. You have to score.
 

One score over 100 in 8 games is poor.  

We need goalkicking accuracy and better connection forward of centre. 

Go Dees 

[Demonland 73,272]

11 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not sure of the mood in this thread but if anyone needs convincing that we will win and win well lets compare the teams from the 2023 Semi and this week:

The major reasons we will win:

• Our fwd line of Turner, Petty, van Rooyen is far superior to 2023: Smith, McDonald, Schache (who was the unused sub).
• Our overall line up is far better than theirs.
• Their best defender Weitering suffered a corked thigh then played the next week on a 6 day break and he could barely run ... very slow.  This week he is on a 5 day break.  McGovern is a lazy footballer.
• There defence struggled to contain our depleted line in 2023, they will do no better this year.
• Superior tactics and what was learnt from the Geelong game.
• Their field defence is poor.

I could go on but you get my drift.

 

Dees by 3 goals, 5-6 if we decide to inflict some pain rather than close the game down. 

You can take Schache off the list. May as well have written Grundy. 😜

Too soon?