PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Carlton

[leave it to deever 16,498]

1 hour ago, Roger Mellie said:

Bowey in and Billings or Woey to sub.

I can't entertain the thought of Hunter. While he has no trouble finding the pill, he doesn't do anything useful with it.

Hopefully not Woey out.

I'm not sure Goody will make any changes after a win like that.

[Willmoy1947 3,828]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Interesting footage on Sunday Footy Show showing the pies keeping the Carlton mids away from the centre bounce. 

Pendles physically kept cripps 5-7m away from the contest. Another pie kept Walsh away. 

It really disrupted the Carlton clearance machine

The commentators mentioned it a few times, and you could notice Pendlebury. 

Carlton get tackled, they throw the ball away quite deliberately as if its a signal to others.

Ad in the Brisbane free kick staging and you have a lot to beat around the ball.

[Ted Lasso 17,235]

Interesting game because they're so different to Geelong yet their weapons are similar, two big powerful forwards who could rip the game away from us in a 5 minute patch if we lapse defensively, strong intercepting defenders down back, so the forwards need to compete hard, and incredibly dangerous off turnover. 

the difference is probably Geelong are a lot more polished and refined where as Carlton are much stronger and more brutal in the contest and more likely to match us in there. 

We will need Gawn to dominate, our mids to play very well and May and McDonald with Lever to limit the damage from Curnow and McKay. 

in terms of changes i really like what Billings is doing so i'd keep him in, probably drop Taj for Bowey and keep Taj as the sub.

With Bowey back in the team it does give us another really sharp ball user from the back half which we've been missing.

[MrFreeze 1,573]

Massive midfield battle coming up. If we deny them the ball at stoppage and clearance i don't see them having any path to victory. 

Their game plan is just dump kicks to their twin towers. Weitering is a one man show at the moment and their ball use exiting d50 was abysmal v Collingwood. 

We have the chance to rip two contenders apart two weeks in a row. Keen to see it. 

[Sparrowsfart 19]

I suspect we will see a few changes based on Goody's post match comments. 

Likely Bowey, Hunter and one other in.

I think this will be a tough game - I went to Geelong Carlton and the Blues play a pretty brutal style while lacking a bit of polish.

As others have commented, their big boys can kill a game in about 10 minutes, so much will be down to our backs.

Our mids are still not quite there, a bit better against the Cats but as mentioned last week, out stars do some to leave a little in the tank for critical moments in the game. That was more evident that ever late in the Cats game. Gawn and Trac really lifted.

I think it's going to be closish, unless we have a good night in front of goal and in that case we win by about 3-4 goals.

[Fat Tony 4,560]

We definitely looked tired against the Crows off a 5-day break. I would make some changes, even if we look a worse team on paper. While no one deserves to be dropped, Hunter, Bowey and Laurie would all be options to inject some run. Woewodin played a decent game at half back but Bowey will give us a lot more rebound.

If we win this we go two games and percentage above Carlton, which is a big gap, so this is a massive game from a top 4 perspective.

[Gawndy the Great 7,871]

We win this and I think we consolidate  our premiership credentials. We lose and we go back to the pack. We have plenty of time off in the last month so should be right for Thu night despite 5 day break.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,534]

I was at the game on Saturday and have subsequently watched it on the TV on replay, too. I can't see why Billings is so unpopular here. Yes, some of his kicking was substandard - but he wasn't alone in that. I accept that he's in the bottom few and with players coming back his position isn't secure.

I thought all seven defenders played well with Woewodin now looking like he belongs at this level. Nevertheless, if Bowey is available, he should come in which means either Woewodin loses his spot as a defender (although not necessarily in the side) or we use this chance to move Rivers to the midfield. My preference would be to move Rivers midfield and wing (to take up the 30% DeeSpencer referred to earlier).

So, if Bowey comes in, unless someone needs a rest, I'd move Billings to sub and Laurie misses out. Which would be a shame.

[Diamond_Jim 12,076]

1 hour ago, Willmoy1947 said:

Yep, i reckon Billings is close and would have snagged at least two of those goals had he kicked straight.

Agree... he is a valuable link player who has decent upside and seems to get around 14 possessions per game. I don't see that in Laurie and I'm not sold on Woewodin although he had a better game on Saturday night

[Sparrowsfart 19]

25 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

We definitely looked tired against the Crows off a 5-day break. I would make some changes, even if we look a worse team on paper. While no one deserves to be dropped, Hunter, Bowey and Laurie would all be options to inject some run. Woewodin played a decent game at half back but Bowey will give us a lot more rebound.

If we win this we go two games and percentage above Carlton, which is a big gap, so this is a massive game from a top 4 perspective.

Agreed - it's a massive game from that perspective.

This game and the two games to come against the Pies are the huge eight point games against 3rd and 4th ladder chances. 

I don't know what to expect from remaining fixtures against Swans and GWS.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,770]

Did McAdam get a concussion yesterday?

[Bonkers 918]

On 05/05/2024 at 07:34, BDA said:

We can win this game. Tough slog last night and playing off a 5 day break so won't be at all easy but Carlton have had a very difficult schedule. 3 games in 13 for them against quality opposition. they'll be tired as well.

No idea how the FD have planned around this but other than billings, who is in poor form, I'm not sure they'll rotate to manage fatigue

In: Laurie

Out: Billings

 

Laurie should be pretty fresh, apparently he has a pretty big tank? Top 3 in the time trials at the club? He could be a decent option for this game after the 5 day break and potential tired legs in the midfield. Whether he is able to get his hands on the ball enough is the unknown.
 

The other in is probably Bowey, I guess he comes in for Woey.

 

In: Bowey

Out: Billings

Sub: Woey

I wouldn’t be against Laurie as the sub and giving Woey some more minutes on the wing or through midfield. Laurie is more a like for like replacement for Billings however. The same applies for Bowey replacing Woey in the current lineup.

[Binmans PA 26,610]

 

24 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I was at the game on Saturday and have subsequently watched it on the TV on replay, too. I can't see why Billings is so unpopular here. Yes, some of his kicking was substandard - but he wasn't alone in that. I accept that he's in the bottom few and with players coming back his position isn't secure.

I thought all seven defenders played well with Woewodin now looking like he belongs at this level. Nevertheless, if Bowey is available, he should come in which means either Woewodin loses his spot as a defender (although not necessarily in the side) or we use this chance to move Rivers to the midfield. My preference would be to move Rivers midfield and wing (to take up the 30% DeeSpencer referred to earlier).

So, if Bowey comes in, unless someone needs a rest, I'd move Billings to sub and Laurie misses out. Which would be a shame.

I don't disagree, good thoughts, but it would be one out of the box for us to take Rivers out of that +1 role at half back and put him in the midfield.

We don't often make big structural changes in season unless there is injury. Who would you play as the quarterback that has licence to +1 and start our corridor offence, which is usually where Rivers goes?

[poita 3,729]

I'm a Billings fan, but he has been disappointing in the past couple of weeks. His spot is definitely in jeopardy, although I would still prefer him to Hunter.

Don't get carried away with Laurie's junk time goals against Richmond. He was terrible against Geelong and was dragged for the last ten minutes, despite being only brought into the game in the last quarter. He offers nothing against quality sides.

Chandler is definitely struggling with his knee and is the most likely to need a rest. If Bowey is ready to go, he moves back into defence and Woewodin can take Chandler's role forward. Hunter as sub and Laurie out of the 23. Otherwise Woewodin to sub if Chandler is okay.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,534]

38 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

 

I don't disagree, good thoughts, but it would be one out of the box for us to take Rivers out of that +1 role at half back and put him in the midfield.

We don't often make big structural changes in season unless there is injury. Who would you play as the quarterback that has licence to +1 and start our corridor offence, which is usually where Rivers goes?

We're in the fortunate position of having all of Bowey, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Salem and May as excellent distributors out of the backline. (Lever and McDonald, not so much). Take your pick from those, apart from May.

I agree that we don't usually make structural changes when things are going well. However, moving Rivers to the midfield is just going back to what seemed to be intended before both Bowey and Salem were injured.

[leave it to deever 16,498]

1 hour ago, poita said:

a Billings fan, but he has been disappointing in the past couple of weeks. His spot is definitely in jeopardy, although I would still prefer him to Hunter.

Isn't he touted as being an elite user of the ball. I thought the Saints were silly in letting him go and was pleased he came to us. Other than his third quarter, I really thought his decision making was below average and his last few games were just the same. 

He's probably the only one that may  get cut. But I doubt Goody will make any changes after a big win like that. He's not one for changing a winning combination.Maybe the sub gets changed.

I sure hope Woey doesn't get dropped. I would like to see him play further up the ground. Possibly Bowey as sub to get him some game time. I would like to see Hunter back but not sure how he's tracking.

It's great to see a team that beat the cats have players knocking on the door.

And if Chin is injured then he's worth resting. Maybe Woey to play his role but who replaces Woeys role in the backline? Wouldn't Bowey struggle after a long break?

Edited May 6 by leave it to deever

[Demonland 66,740]

 

[greenwaves 356]

People suggesting we should rest players because of the five day break...forget it.  Goodwin doesn't do that.  If you're fit, you play.

[Red But Mostly Blue 4,065]

What's going on with McAdam? Some suggestion he went off with concussion? He clearly had an issue, but it's strange there hasn't been anything official? I know he was not going to play v the Blues (as much as that would an interesting x factor addition), but the injury/issue will likely further push out his return date. 

[DubDee 21,725]

5 day break is tough but we are coming off the bye and the Blues only have 24 hours extra to recover on us after their huge game. Significant but we can still get up and win this

[DeeSpencer 23,595]

12 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

What's going on with McAdam? Some suggestion he went off with concussion? He clearly had an issue, but it's strange there hasn't been anything official? I know he was not going to play v the Blues (as much as that would an interesting x factor addition), but the injury/issue will likely further push out his return date. 

Illness is the report 

[Binmans PA 26,610]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

We're in the fortunate position of having all of Bowey, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Salem and May as excellent distributors out of the backline. (Lever and McDonald, not so much). Take your pick from those, apart from May.

I agree that we don't usually make structural changes when things are going well. However, moving Rivers to the midfield is just going back to what seemed to be intended before both Bowey and Salem were injured.

I think without Salem in the team, we won't pull the trigger on a move like this, but I've been wrong before.

The player needs to be good above their head and being able to float across in front of packs and intercept. Ideally they're explosive like Rivers, he's really a great player for that spot, but someone like Gus played it, and he wasn't explosive, neither is Salem.

What's interesting is we did push Rivers into the midfield in the final quarter against Brisbane after losing Salem (and already being down Bowey), so it's possible, it'd definitely be a very bold move.

Edited May 6 by Binmans PA

[Diamond_Jim 12,076]

1 hour ago, poita said:

Don't get carried away with Laurie's junk time goals against Richmond. He was terrible against Geelong and was dragged for the last ten minutes, despite being only brought into the game in the last quarter.

Definitely interesting that he spent so much time on the bench after being inserted into the game at the 3 minute mark of the last quarter.

While I don't necessarily agree perhaps they will prefer a more mature player like Hunter as the sub this week.

Carlton, Sydney, GWS and the Pies plus the Eagles in Perth (no pushover on recent form) what a hard run !!

[Roost it far 6,322]

I reckon the Blues might fall apart in the second half, I’m expecting a 5-6 goal win

[leave it to deever 16,498]

Just now, Roost it far said:

I reckon the Blues might fall apart in the second half, I’m expecting a 5-6 goal win

Our three horsemen should be able to shut down their tall and pretty potent forward line. 

If Petty and Oliver and Max play like that again and Jvr lifts a little then yea we should be quite confident.

The five day break has me a little concerned given how hard we played.