On 28/03/2024 at 07:35, Diamond_Jim said:

No Tomlinson.... very surprising

Makes it more likely that Petty will play back

Hore v Woewodin is probably decided by where Salem is played

My guess is that Woewodin will be the sub and Hore Lever and Tmac will start down back. Petty will only swing back if it’s all going to hell without May. 

• Finlayson 197cm
• Marshall 198cm
• Dixon 200cm

 

• McDonald 195cm
• Lever 194cm
• Hore 190cm

 

Significant height issues down back if Petty is forward. Add in a sore Lever, who is better as an intercept than man defender... not hugely confidence.

I don't like Tomlinson but at least you can give him a job and it gives Lever more freedom and/or allows Petty to play forward.

Hmmm, maybe a late change is on the cards……

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:43, Newport34 said:

Hmmm, maybe a late change is on the cards……

We don't normally play games with late changes, so unless someone (Lever or Oliver) needs more time to prove their fitness then I would think that we will go in as named. 

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:41, seventyfour said:

• Finlayson 197cm
• Marshall 198cm
• Dixon 200cm

 

• McDonald 195cm
• Lever 194cm
• Hore 190cm

 

Significant height issues down back if Petty is forward. Add in a sore Lever, who is better as an intercept than man defender... not hugely confidence.

I don't like Tomlinson but at least you can give him a job and it gives Lever more freedom and/or allows Petty to play forward.

Petty has trained with the backs this week. he will 100% be playing back

Woe in .... is that a precaution in case Chin or Claz doesn't get up?

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:46, DubDee said:

Petty has trained with the backs this week. he will 100% be playing back

At one point in the Demonland podcast they mentioned a track watcher said he was training with the forwards earlier in the week. He then trained with the backs as the week went on.

But with Tomlinson not selected yes you would think it will be Petty back for most of the match.

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:48, Demon Dynasty said:

Woe in .... is that a precaution in case Chin or Claz doesn't get up?

Chin? Is that because he had a bit of strapping on the knee at training? 

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:56, Dee Zephyr said:

Chin? Is that because he had a bit of strapping on the knee at training? 

You would assume so.

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:37, Jaded No More said:

My guess is that Woewodin will be the sub and Hore Lever and Tmac will start down back. Petty will only swing back if it’s all going to hell without May. 

I think that's the likely scenario 

Woey gives us fresh legs, Petty is backline insurance.

Aren't we fortunate to have such depth down back?

Edited March 28, 20241 yr by Moonshadow

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:56, Dee Zephyr said:

Chin? Is that because he had a bit of strapping on the knee at training? 

He was in the light duties / rehab group on Monday.  Not sure about the rest of the week's training

I think Petty will start back and Hore will be the sub.

This will be a tough one to win. A lot of pressure on the midfield to keep the pressure up the whole game and to lighten the load on our defence.

Dees by 20 points in a tight last quarter.

Play Petty forward/

I would have included Tommo. At least as a sub.

  On 28/03/2024 at 07:41, seventyfour said:

• Finlayson 197cm
• Marshall 198cm
• Dixon 200cm

 

• McDonald 195cm
• Lever 194cm
• Hore 190cm

 

Significant height issues down back if Petty is forward. Add in a sore Lever, who is better as an intercept than man defender... not hugely confidence.

I don't like Tomlinson but at least you can give him a job and it gives Lever more freedom and/or allows Petty to play forward.

Works both ways though.

* Jvr 193cm

*Harrison Petty 197 cm

* Bbb 200 cm.

I'm hoping our mids who have been in cracking form will dominate the clearances and starve ports fwd line of supply.

The big positive is finally our small brigade our impacting the scoreboard in aanb....kozzy and chin.

I personally would have Tommo as a sub in case Hore can't do the job or we lose a tall in Bbb or Petty. 

I think #Jadednomore was correct and we will see Petty up fwd again.

I hope so. Last week after a long absence from competition footy he took two great marks in the first ) sadly he didn't convert) and helped get our first goal through Kozzy.

Worse case without Tommo is Petty swings back. 

 

Edited March 28, 20241 yr by leave it to deever

Looking at the Sportsbet odds, Port at $1.46 and Demons $2.66 indicates punters see us as a significant underdog. I don’t recall odds like this since 2020.

Edited March 28, 20241 yr by John Crow Batty

  On 28/03/2024 at 23:13, John Crow Batty said:

Looking at the Sportsbet odds, Port at $1.46 and Demons $2.66 indicates punters see us as a significant underdog. I don’t recall odds like this since 2020.

They deserve to be favourites. 

Which, if we lose, is worth remembering.

But as I posted earlier, 1.46 is, in punting speak, unders (under the true odds).

Forget battle of the midfield, it will be a battle of defences.

They will look to go fast from the back half, and push up aggressively.

Tough to stop, but we are best placed in the AFL to do so. Particularly if we can minimise Alirs intecept impact (i reckon fritter might get the job, after doing such a great job on Sicily)

But if we can move the ball quickly and spread hard, their defence will struggle big time to stop us kicking a winning score.

Hell, they couldn't stop the tigers, who butchered the ball all game, scoring almost 100 points.

If I was pricing it, port would be 1.70 favourite. 

 

They've obviously seen enough in Port's hard fought victories over an experienced Eagles side and a premiership contending Tigers outfit.

But in saying that the bookies obviously think May is a massive out to our system and going to be hard to replace, they might also think Lever might be a bit ginger and propy.

That price will balance up significantly come the first bounce i would say, money will come in late for us.

 

 

Edited March 29, 20241 yr by YesitwasaWin4theAges

  On 28/03/2024 at 23:13, John Crow Batty said:

Looking at the Sportsbet odds, Port at $1.46 and Demons $2.66 indicates punters see us as a significant underdog. I don’t recall odds like this since 2020.

It's hard for betting agencies to tune odds early in the season.

A lot of it is gleamed from last year's performances.

That's why I believe these are odds are good for us. I believe we are more of a chance than they imply.

Of course there is the home ground advantage ( but we do ok in Adelaide) and May out but we do have significant defence depth.

I believe like the Hawks game our mids will dominate and we get the chocolates.

Port should be worried about all our smalls firing too . Anb, Kozzy and Chandler look to be very dangerous.

And even if you tag Oliver than Tracca or JV will just pull you apart.

Bbb seems to moving quite well and Tmac has shown some of his old defending form.

We have looked more like our 21 team of late.

Edited March 29, 20241 yr by leave it to deever

  On 29/03/2024 at 00:20, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

They've obviously seen enough in Port's hard fought victories over an experienced Eagles side and a premiership contending Tigers outfit.

But in saying that the bookies obviously think May is a massive out to our system and going to be hard to replace, they might also think Lever might be a bit ginger and propy.

That price will balance up significantly come the first bounce i would say, money will come in late for us.

 

 

We haven’t beaten better opponents though. Hawks are a bottom 4 side, and Dogs will be lucky to make finals. 
This game will be a better indicator of where both sides are placed for the season. 

  On 29/03/2024 at 00:20, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

They've obviously seen enough in Port's hard fought victories over an experienced Eagles side and a premiership contending Tigers outfit.

But in saying that the bookies obviously think May is a massive out to our system and going to be hard to replace, they might also think Lever might be a bit ginger and propy.

That price will balance up significantly come the first bounce i would say, money will come in late for us.

 

Already come in to $2.46 but some real value at 40+, paying $13

Hard to rate Port, only played WC and RICH, but I reckon we are a shot at a big win, more than a 8% chance for sure

Edited March 29, 20241 yr by Bring Back Barassi

Maybe start Petty forward and if things look chancy swap ends with McDonald and Petty.

Can we pretty please have someone pay close attention to Butters this time?

He destroyed us last year in a close battle, he was clearly the difference and I struggled to identify who his opponent was. 41 touches, 2 goals.

I suggest Sparrow goes with him. Not necessarily a hard tag but certainly tracking him and not letting him run free, he is far too dangerous! 

Allir and Butters take them out the game get them defending rather than play making, make them accountable especially Allir closer to goal.

Always interests me when the squad is announced who will eventually be named the sub come game day.

A suggestion. How hard would it be to create a weekly poll (similar to the one in the thread that asks ‘who is your least favourite team’).

This would give an opportunity for all us armchair experts to pick (or in my case guess) who will be the sub.

If all too difficult, all good, it was just a thought 

In the meantime….GO DEES!