The Pick 1 Thread

[Mach5 4,768]

5 hours ago, bing181 said:

I just don't think our picks are high enough for them, especially that pick 6 ... no matter what we pair it with.

It will be if they want Curtin & the dominoes fall in a way that he’s available at 6. And I think they will.

[Mach5 4,768]

4 hours ago, Garbo said:

Fact wc knocked back pick 4 from hawks and there first next year likely to be in the same range. I can’t see how our pick 6 and 11 this year plus our first next year would be enough.

 
2 picks vs 3? Hawks also expected to improve exponentially next year.

I think our F1 has value as teams would be waiting for us to fall off the precipice. Sydney’s F2 which we hold has value for that reason I think.

[Demonland 73,266]

 

[old55 23,801]

7 hours ago, Garbo said:

Fact wc knocked back pick 4 from hawks and there first next year likely to be in the same range. I can’t see how our pick 6 and 11 this year plus our first next year would be enough.

Do you have a link to evidence that is the Hawthorn offer?  They said they were in the market with pick 3 (as it was then before the McKay compo) and commentators said they'd need to add their F1st too,  but I can't find any evidence where they actually offered pick 3 + F1st.

Edited October 15, 2023 by old55

[Demonland 73,266]

 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,464]

Petty must be kept.

[ChaserJ 5,169]

18 minutes ago, old55 said:

Do you have a link to evidence that is the Hawthorn offer?  They said they were in the market with pick 3 (as it was then before the McKay compo) and commentators said they'd need to add their F1st too,  but I can't find any evidence where they actually offered pick 3 + F1st.

Reported in the Age over the weekend @old55:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/hawk-brockman-flying-west-to-the-eagles-20231014-p5ec87.html

[Deemist 57]

16 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14).

No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality.

Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return.

North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3.

Box seat.

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

What happened to this year supposedly being a "super draft"?  It's all everyone banged on about last year at this time.

[3183 Dee 2,909]

3 minutes ago, Deemist said:

What happened to this year supposedly being a "super draft"?  It's all everyone banged on about last year at this time.

That's now next year, apparently 😝

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,464]

3 minutes ago, Deemist said:

What happened to this year supposedly being a "super draft"?  It's all everyone banged on about last year at this time.

Now we’re reading it drops off after pick 8.

[Deemist 57]

I spent all year in a rosy glow thinking not only would we would win the flag; we have all these great picks to use with a draft so deep.  lol 

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

24 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Petty must be kept.

I said this in the Petty thread and i'll repeat it here.

Petty is a keeper, he's contracted until the end of 2025. If he wants out before then the crows will need to pay up and pay up big, if they don't then don't worry about it.

We want Petty and anything less than 2 top 10 picks won't be enough.

[Demonland 73,266]

 

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,619]

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

[dazzledavey36 55,458]

6 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

I like it...

[Neitz the Great 555]

6 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

If WCE received all our picks then why wouldn’t we take pick 1?

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,619]

1 minute ago, Neitz the Great said:

If WCE received all our picks then why wouldn’t we take pick 1?

Because we are essentially sliding pick 11 back to 15 but receiving pick 3.

I guess it depends if we want to go all in on 1 or have two picks within 20, one of them essentially being pick 4.

[Demons11 7,061]

9 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

If WC are just getting our picks, why wouldn’t we get pick 1.  Nth are irrelevant in this trade

[mo64 5,881]

15 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I could see a 3 way trade with North & WCE happening.

Melb Give: pick 6, pick 11 and future first.

Melb Receive: Pick 3, pick 15 & future 2nd (WCE)

North Give: pick 3 & pick 15

North Receive: Pick 1

WCE Give: Pick 1 & future 2nd round

WCE Receive: Pick 6, pick 11 & future first (Melb)

Maybe North give their future second to Eagles also, but that seems a pretty fair deal to me.

Great deal for North, but can't see other clubs agreeing to it. WCE aren't guaranteed getting Curtin and we don't get Reid.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

You have to ask yourself if WCE won't trade with North or Hawks because they are direct rivals in terms of rising up the ladder. However trading with Melbourne is a minimal risk as we are not on the same timeline. 

[BangBnagBang 721]

 

On 14/10/2023 at 12:39, ChaserJ said:

There is a developing theory amongst recruiters that North, Hawks & Dogs all have put more time into other players, hence a strong chance that Curtin gets through.

North now strongly linked to Duursma & McKercher.

One reason that we are still well in the game.

What's your sight on next years crop? @ChaserJ  If Curtain is there at Melbourne's pick and WCE offered up there F1 would Melbourne do the deal or take Curtain???

[bandicoot 1,395]

8 hours ago, Garbo said:

Fact wc knocked back pick 4 from hawks and there first next year likely to be in the same range. I can’t see how our pick 6 and 11 this year plus our first next year would be enough.

Are you comparing pick 4, and hawthorns FF to 6,11, and dees FF? 
dees are giving an extra top 20 pick. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,619]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

Great deal for North, but can't see other clubs agreeing to it. WCE aren't guaranteed getting Curtin and we don't get Reid.

North probably have to give up more and it was just a quick thought.

I think the Eagles will want multiple first round picks if they are giving up pick 1, which is why I think it will take a multi club deal.

[DeeSpencer 26,091]

2 hours ago, Deemist said:

What happened to this year supposedly being a "super draft"?  It's all everyone banged on about last year at this time.

I was always suspicious on it. Apart from the grass is greener effect that happens every year the so called ‘super’ draft was a lot of mid sized or super skinny talls and light on for bonafide mids.

Caddy hasn’t fully come on. Archie Reid not at all. Moir fallen in a heap. Mitch Edwards meh. Will Lorenz unremarkable.

 

[Mach5 4,768]

2 hours ago, Deemist said:

What happened to this year supposedly being a "super draft"?  It's all everyone banged on about last year at this time.

We hear some variation of this every year. This year was supposed to be a super draft for WA based prospects. 
Sanchez, Thorstrupp, Curtin, Edwards, Hardeman... just hasn’t translated. Too hard to gauge these things 12 months out. Which is partly why Reid is a unicorn 🦄