PREGAME: Rd 17 vs St. Kilda

[Adam The God 29,331]

Did people actually watch the Geelong game? Stewart was okay against us, but I keep reading how Stewart dominated us. He only had 8 intercept possessions for the entire night, Henry had 9, and IMV was more influential that Stewart.

But far and away the most influential interceptor and defensive player on the ground that night was Lever with a game high 14 intercepts and then Rivers with 12, yet it was apparently Geelong's interceptors that dominated us.

How about we didn't kick straight and that's where the game was lost? 23 scoring shots each.

Kick straight against the Saints and we win.

Edited July 7, 2023 by A F

[Damo 3,238]

15 minutes ago, A F said:

 

Kick straight against the Saints and we win.

Um.. kick straight against any of a few losses this year already and we win. Lets at least not try to kick from 50 unless your David Neitz. Pass to someone in the pocket and let them kick around the corner. Higher percentage of a good score. Forwards need to create space. Its not rocket surgery.

[beelzebub 23,197]

1 minute ago, Damo said:

Um.. kick straight against any of a few losses this year already and we win. Lets at least not try to kick from 50 unless your David Neitz. Pass to someone in the pocket and let them kick around the corner. Higher percentage of a good score. Forwards need to create space. Its not rocket surgery.

How about we dont look to pockets...  better places to prioritise I reckon.

[binman 41,945]

16 hours ago, markT said:

Binners  i have no issues with the in's, but if our last 6 games have given us any cause for reflection its that we desperately need to start stringing together some wins when we are holding onto 4th palce by our fingernails at 36 points, and a conga line of hopefuls queueing up behind us.  Leaving Melcham (6 disposals last week from 73 i50's) in at the expense of JVR (or even Smith) doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of a guaranteed dry surface and BBB our only selected tall marking forward.

Not sure I agree that Spargo is being "managed" either. Had a very  ordinary last month although at his best I agree he is in our best 22.  Chandler dropped is long overdue. Hasnt kicked a goal since Rnd 10. Pretty sure he is not being managed either. 

Some additional context for my post about the ins MT:

• My perspective on selection is informed by a belief that we are coming to the end of s heavy block of training designed to maximize the likelihood we are cherry ripe come finals  
• This block of training exacerbates the accumulative fatigue of the season and individual matches (like last weeks game, which would have been super tiring given our contest numbers and the weather) 
• The form of the team suffers as result of this fatigue, as does the form of individual players - with some, particularly younger players, being impacted more than others
• [Note: even if you are of view that fatigue is only a minor consideration, or don't believe we do a mid season heavy block of training that impacts our performance, the fact remains the pattern is crystal clear. This is third season in a row where we have had a significant mid season slump characterized by losses in games when favorite, a drop off in skills, a drop off in performance by the team and individual players (particularly younger players) and chronic inaccuracy. So whatever someone's explanation is for that pattern, surely one of them can't be that it's just a weird coincidence] 
• The coaching panel are juggling multiple, often competing, imperatives in terms of selection for the games in this phase of the season - picking a team that can win the game, load management of the team, load management of individual players, development of individual players and most of all maximizing the chances of winning a flag 
• The campaign is not about winning the individual battles (but of course you have to win enough of those battles to be top 4), it is about winning the war - as much as the footy media would love fans to believe it, each game isn't a must win game, an isolated event or a litmus test on premiership chances
• So, just as i suggested prior to the Cats game when i predicted Spargo would be the sub for load management reasons, the selection would be different for the Saints' game if their sole imperative was to win the game - if it was, JVR probably gets selected
• As an example of how my perspective informs my thinking on selection, I agree Spargo has been down on form the last few weeks but i think fatigue is likely the main cause (same is true of Chandler, who needs a chop out and is getting one, and other players too) and as opposed to dropping him for form, they are managing his game time as part of his fitness program
• I always find the debate on selection a little hard to engage with because it's often not clear to me whether posters are expressing an opinion on who they think should be selected or who they think will be selected
• Normally, i am in the latter camp
• So when i predicted earlier in this thread the ins would be Woey (who had been announced at that point), Jordon and Spargo, it was based on my prediction of what would happen, not what i think should happen
• And that prediction was informed by all of the above dot points
• So, for example, i view JVR's non-selection through the lens of the club wanting to give a young player a break from the rigors of senior AFL football (he is only 19, and in his second season, which is crazy young for a key forward), to enhance his development as a player. work on deficits and maximize the likelihood he is fit, firing and in ripping form come finals
• I find some of the criticism of selection ironic, as sometimes it comes from posters who this time last year were vociferously bemoaning Goody's so called stubbornness, refusal to be more flexible with selection, not bringing in fresh players from Casey, not managing players, not rewarding form at Casey, and, horrors of horrors, not copying the Cats 'squad mentality'  
• There's a double irony, because before the season started, goody, almost as if answering his DL critics, said we would 100% be taking a different approach to selection this season and taking more of a squad mentality
• And Goody has been true to his word - and of course still gets slammed by some of the very same posters knocking him last year for his static selection policy
• I don't share the sky is falling, jumping at shadows vibe that permeates DL at this time of year (well, the last three years) - we are tracking fine and in my opinion will make top 4 and win the flag
• To be clear, i also accept there is a very good chance we won't win the flag. To demonstrate what i mean by this seeming contradiction, for the sake of argument, let's say the Pies' current odds with the bookies (aprox $3 - which translates to 2-1) are an accurate reflection of the 'true odds' of them winning the flag. At those odds, if the season is played out 100 times, even as 2-1 favorites they still lose lose 40 times.
• By the by, i don't care what team it is - $3 for any time of the year is ridiculously short odds (under the 'true' odds) given so many things could go wrong between now and the end of September that could negatively impact their chances of winning the flag - eg Nick Daicos tears his hammy badly in round 24. Taking $3 now for the Pies to win the flag is the equivalent of backing the favorite for the Melbourne Cup on the futures market 3 months out from the race - a bet the bookies salivate over as it is money for jam for them. Which is why they have a futures market.
• I had the same view in 2021 and again last season. I could care less if that view is again dismissed as being delusional.
• By the by, my perspective on the arc of the season has sometimes been dismissed on the grounds that i was somehow proven 'wrong' last year because we got knocked out of the finals in straight sets. That opinion is logically inconsistent if it is not also accepted i was right in 2021. 
• I'm batting .500 - not bad when talking predicting flags. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by binman

[Adam The God 29,331]

17 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

How about we dont look to pockets...  better places to prioritise I reckon.

This is overblown too.

Against Geelong, we went centrally extremely often and it didn't impact on our scoring accuracy...

[layzie 32,789]

Be better at contested footy in the 50. We rule it in midfield and defence. 

[Damo 3,238]

Ok keep kicking from 50 into the square with 10 players going up there. I dont know why I thought it wasnt working.

 

[Diamond Tim 291]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Thing is Luci, before his injury Petty was a forward. So was it really his spot in defence?

Last year I’d have fully agreed with you that Petty was an automatic lock for ohr backline. This year, I challenge that notion. In part because he spent most of his time pre-injury as a forward, in part because I just don’t think he’s been that good this year.

Fully onside with this - Petty was playing as a fwd prior to his injury and was absolutely on fire during  the game he injured himself. The D's need that sort of forward dominance as much or more than anything else. In his absence the shuffling of the deck saw Tommo playing 3rd tall back and starring in our best win of the year on KB.

So what do we do in the following game ? Drop Tommo and play Petty back - right in the midst of a building fwd line dysfunction crisis that has cost us points and see us on the verge of losing top 4 and being no certainty for the 8.

We had a superb backline with the 3 talls of Tommo, Lever and May - they performed cohesively to mop up the ladder leader. We have a fwd half that needs players producing as Petty did prior to his injury. I'm sorry but based upon the evidence I just do not get the selections being made in this respect.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,208]

So with a closed roof and being the main target is there any reason BBB won’t be dominating tonight?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,208]

I sat back two weeks ago doing my ladder predictor and had us beating both Geelong and the Giants now I think we could struggle tomorrow night.

[layzie 32,789]

29 minutes ago, Damo said:

Um.. kick straight against any of a few losses this year already and we win. Lets at least not try to kick from 50 unless your David Neitz. Pass to someone in the pocket and let them kick around the corner. Higher percentage of a good score. Forwards need to create space. Its not rocket surgery.

Take the short option if it's on, keep the ball in motion and the opposition guessing. No need to bomb as first option within 2 seconds every time. 

[beelzebub 23,197]

14 minutes ago, A F said:

This is overblown too.

Against Geelong, we went centrally extremely often and it didn't impact on our scoring accuracy...

Where are the pockets at Kardinia ?? Asking for a friend 

[Adam The God 29,331]

Just now, beelzebub said:

Where are the pockets at Kardinia ?? Asking for a friend 

Well, we went to the pockets against Geelong too, but more often than not, we seemed to go to the 25m hot spot.

I'd love it if someone was actually able to back that up statistically. Is this data something you have access to @WheeloRatings?

[beelzebub 23,197]

10 minutes ago, Damo said:

Ok keep kicking from 50 into the square with 10 players going up there. I dont know why I thought it wasnt working.

 

Me thinks you're missing the actual point.

Thats the last thing we ever ought to do.

 

[binman 41,945]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Some random thoughts:

1. I suspect Smith was dropped because his defensive work on Tom Stewart and Nick Haynes was not good enough. Perhaps Melksham has been given that role this week. 

3. I wish people would stop judging players on their disposal numbers. Players are given different roles and responsibilities. Some have the job of accumulating the ball (Oliver, Petracca, the wingers). Others appear to be there to play defensive roles and/or create space for the ball accumulators (Neal-Bullen, especially). If someone is playing a defensive forward role (see Point 1), please don't judge him on how many times he gets the ball or how many goals he scores. Instead, judge his value on whether he stops his opponent. 

1. i agree. I am big Smithy fan, but i i agree his defensive work on Tom Stewart and Nick Haynes was not good enough. he was given a chance to establish himself in the team, but unfortunately i don't think he took it. It will be interesting to see if he is sub. 

2. Could not agree more - does my head in. I mean it is 6 years since the tigers won the their first flag and changed football. One such change was bringing the concept of players given a specific role with KPIs specific to that role (never number the number of possessions - and to explode the head of many, not necessarily even goals for forwards, like the high half forward role Nibbler and Spargo play)

[IRW 1,377]

28 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

So with a closed roof and being the main target is there any reason BBB won’t be dominating tonight?

Playing with  bone on bone makes dominating difficult

[Demon Dynasty 17,091]

4 hours ago, BigFez said:

.  I don't think the team or either player is best served by having two specialist rucks in the team.  Doubt Grundy will ever be dropped, but I'd love to see JVR pinch hitting and having Max playing the same ruck minutes as he always has.  Feel like he's a wasted resource at the moment.  Just my opinion.

We can play Grundy as sub.  Solves many of these problems and Grundy is still there for if / when Max hits the wall in a match or the FD see he has reached his loads limits etc.

Gawn can also start as Sub in matches where his loads might need to be managed and / or the match ups / weather suggest 2 ruckman may not be needed for the entire match.

That way you are also conserving Max for the big games / match ups where his influence / output is more critical vs Grundy's.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

3 hours ago, layzie said:

In my opinion it's these smaller details in a footy club that build culture and morale. May not seem like a big deal without something here or there but it all contributes to a big fat sterile AFL club and why would people want to go there if no-one cares? 

I know banners aren't easy to make and it takes many hands to make light work (As we've seen on here this year) but when everyone talks about how clubs like this need culture, this stuff is it. 

This is so true, Layz.

 I know there’s some who think pfft it’s only a banner, it’s not so important etc. but it does make a difference, even if it’s a small difference.

Interestingly, earlier in the season, Brodie told us that he always makes a point of reading the banner as they run out. Collingwood make banners every week too so we wondered why he’d make a point of telling us that. He’s such a diplomatic (and very nice) person so he didn’t bag the Magpie Army. But he said a lot of thought clearly goes into our banners and they’re different from week to week. He said the boys love coming up and out of the race to the sight of our “magnificent” banners. That’s enough for us! ♥️💙

 

[Fritta and Turner 4,181]

47 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

So with a closed roof and being the main target is there any reason BBB won’t be dominating tonight?

No way will he dominate tonight, coz we are playing tomorrow night.  (Sorry in advance)

[Nicko 1,377]

54 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

So with a closed roof and being the main target is there any reason BBB won’t be dominating tonight?

Yes because we are playing tomorrow night…

[Pennant St Dee 12,657]

2 hours ago, NeveroddoreveN said:

Tomlinson was actually dropped after Collingwood game.

You are saying i am off the mark and lack footy knowledge is simply not true,

Last 2 weeks we been dominated by the best intercepting defender...Stewart then Haynes.

Earlier in the year it was no accident that Petty was playing lock down roles on these type guys, and although we were not getting high value goal output. It was stopping the intercept mark and rebounds being allowed to start freely.

Not at all what i was suggesting.  Petty forward/Tomlinson back.  

I know Tomlinson was dropped after the Collingwood game but he was also dropped earlier in the season when he was poor against Brisbane and whilst we won the following 2 weeks against those sides (Swans and Eagles) it was nothing to do with Tomo being dropped.

Smith was poor with his positioning against Stewart 4th quarter and last week, whilst Smith was poor, the method of entry was the major factor which enabled Haynes to intercept.

We need a total reset with regard to our forward entries and structure. Tomlinson won’t change that, and I prefer our defence to remain strong with Petty back.  We need to pause our entries or at least our mids need to drive out of the clearances with their legs and hit a lead or space for our forwards to lead into not just bomb it. Our forwards need some separation or else there is no point playing Ben Brown. Melksham for all his faults is smart enough to play the negating forward and Spargo is very good with his decision making and poise in and around the F50

Edited July 7, 2023 by Pennant St Dee

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

3 hours ago, binman said:

I don't know what your deal is, but I'm heartily sick of sick of the complete lack of respect you, and some others, show the coach of the football team i love and support.

I'm putting you on ignore because I have no respect for anyone who could write the above and I'm sick of my team being attacked on a forum I post on because supposedly it is dees 'fan' forum.

How about you pick another team to 'support'.

The dees don't need 'supporters' like you.

THANK YOU

I’ve screenshot this post and I’m gonna read it each and every time I get to wondering why on earth I am voluntarily leaving myself open to reading such vicious, disrespectful insults aimed at our own players and coach FROM OUR OWN FANS FFS.

[Demon17 5,047]

2 hours ago, A F said:

Did people actually watch the Geelong game? Stewart was okay against us, but I keep reading how Stewart dominated us. He only had 8 intercept possessions for the entire night, Henry had 9, and IMV was more influential that Stewart.

But far and away the most influential interceptor and defensive player on the ground that night was Lever with a game high 14 intercepts and then Rivers with 12, yet it was apparently Geelong's interceptors that dominated us.

How about we didn't kick straight and that's where the game was lost? 23 scoring shots each.

Kick straight against the Saints and we win.

Spot in. And I know bbb is queried on here for the saints game. But he is a Straight kick. Worth the gamble big time. 

[kev martin 9,469]

5 hours ago, NeveroddoreveN said:

Yeah, what do you think he has said to Tomlinson for last 3 weeks

What a difficult talk that would've been.

My guess, he set it up at the start of the year, or at the end of the last.

Give Tomlinson some goals, state clearly that the coaches don't see him as our best 22.

Just a shame, sham that when he came in to cover injuries, first time under stress to perform he did mediocre. Then the second recall, he must have already had an honest conversation, because on form could have stayed in.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by kev martin

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

10 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

THANK YOU

I’ve screenshot this post and I’m gonna read it each and every time I get to wondering why on earth I am voluntarily leaving myself open to reading such vicious, disrespectful insults aimed at our own players and coach FROM OUR OWN FANS FFS.

Read your inbox.  I know you don't like to hear ANYTHING negative about our players or coaches or anything MFC.  I will not be posting on this forum for some time so that is one less person you going to have to ignore.  

Believe it or not... was just posting what i thought even though it might have been horribly slanted towards the negative.   It was not written to hurt yours or other peoples feelings, and for others to jump down my throat because they simply disagree or don't like the manner in which i attacked a coach of the precious MFC we all love.

I get it, i defend our players and coaches too when i feel they are getting attacked, especially if it is not warranted or ignorant. 

ANyway, not sure why i even bothered to respond...i am out.