The Run Home

[binman 42,468]

10 hours ago, DubDee said:

if we are 3rd before the last round. on track to play Port away in finals 

do we tank the last round?

No.

Never.

Under no circumstances.

[BDA 22,691]

I reckon we’ll run over the top of Carlton and win by 5-6 goals. Sydney at the SCG is the danger game. And I think buddy not playing is a help to the swans rather than a hindrance.

[Jaded No More 68,835]

15 minutes ago, BDA said:

I reckon we’ll run over the top of Carlton and win by 5-6 goals. Sydney at the SCG is the danger game. And I think buddy not playing is a help to the swans rather than a hindrance.

It’s less about Buddy hurting us and more about Sydney being really motivated to get him a win in his last game… not to mention the umpires 🙄

[leave it to deever 17,506]

On 7/31/2023 at 11:25 AM, Jaded No More said:

The thought of barracking for Geelong this week makes me physically ill.

What a conflict of interest this game has become! 

Me too but I've come to the point that I probably dislike Port just as much. At least their supporters 

[binman 42,468]

10 hours ago, rpfc said:

This is why it is legitimately such an open season; the Pies are a very good team but they have their flaws. Same with the others in the top 4. Our problems were fixable but not inevitably redeemed. The pies play an exciting brand of ‘contest swarm’ to pounce on turnover that when it doesn’t come off - they can get cut apart.

That is core gameplan; they can’t go toe to toe talent wise with us or the Lions. They know this. 

But it is all about putting it together across 3 weekends in September, 4 if your nasty.

It's not the swarm that makes them vulnerable.

We swarm too - it is at the heart of the method we adapted from the tigers (I dislike hardwick, but he deserves huge credit for changing how the game is played) - pressure and get numbers to the contest, win the ball and sweep forward in a rugby like line and have players run hard to get ahead of the ball to create options.

The pies perhaps commit more numbers in that swarm, but what makes the pies vulnerable is the risks they take and their defensive system.

They expose themselves to turnover because they flick it around trying to get the ball to the outside and when they get it outside take on high risk kicks - often into the corridor.

Looks great when it works, but place the kicker under enough pressure and/or get numbers into the corridor and they turn it over, and often in very dangerous spots (and their handballs to feed it out can be turned over too).

But it is the second vulnerability, very much interconnected with the first, that really hurts them.

Their defensive lines pushes so high on transition, and in one flat line (ie no goal keeper) that when they turn the ball over they are at massive risks of goals out the back on the counter.

That is all true of all teams using that swarm method, but our defensive sytem protects us on turnover.

We have been experimenting with a similar approach to thstvof the pies in the last 3 games, which is a big reason why we have scored so much - but also why we have leaked so many goals.

The dusty goal where he was left alone in the goal square was the perfect example. We rarely give up such goals.

I'm sure we will revert back to something more like our normal defensive system come finals, including greater use of tempo (we saw a bit of borh in the second half against the tigers) - but the new normal will retain elements of the method we are experimenting with atm.

We can play both styles. And a hybrid.

Hard to see how pies can adjust theirs so late in the season given they havent experimented in games with alternative methods.

Edited August 1, 2023 by binman

[layzie 33,724]

1 hour ago, binman said:

No.

Never.

Under no circumstances.

Losing mentality is losing mentality. Nothing else. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,674]

When does the round 24 fixture times finally get announced? The game is on this month and still no news...

I'm sure posters are planning their trips to Sydney and it would be handy to know when the game is on, and to organise tickets.

[layzie 33,724]

26 minutes ago, binman said:

It's not the swarm that makes them vulnerable.

We swarm too - it is at the heart of the method we adapted from the tigers (I dislike hardwick, but he deserves huge credit for changing how the game is played) - pressure and get numbers to the contest, win the ball and sweep forward in a rugby like line and have players run hard to get ahead of the ball to create options.

The pies perhaps commit more numbers in that swarm, but what makes the pies vulnerable is the risks they take and their defensive system.

They expose themselves to turnover because they flick it around trying to get the ball to the outside and when they get it outside take on high risk kicks - often into the corridor.

Looks great when it works, but place the kicker under enough pressure and/or get numbers into the corridor and they turn it over, and often in very dangerous spots (and their handballs to feed it out can be turned over too).

But it is the second vulnerability, very much interconnected with the first, that really hurts them.

Their defensive lines pushes so high on transition, and in one flat line (ie no goal keeper) that when they turn the ball over they are at massive risks of goals out the back on the counter.

That is all true of all teams using that swarm method, but our defensive sytem protects us on turnover.

We have been experimenting with a similar approach to thstvof the pies in the last 3 games, which is a big reason why we have scored so much - but also why we have leaked so many goals.

The dusty goal where he was left alone in the goal square was the perfect example. We rarely give up such goals.

I'm sure we will revert back to something more like our normal defensive system come finals, including greater use of tempo (we saw a bit of borh in the second half against the tigers) - but the new normal will retain elements of the method we are experimenting with atm.

We can play both styles. And a hybrid.

Hard to see how pies can adjust theirs so late in the season given they havent experimented in games with alternative methods.

I'd go as far as saying that the Dusty goal was the only one we've given up like that this year, 2 or 3 at most.

I like your Rugby analogy, the flat line is typically used in defence when you don't have the ball in Rugby so it is high risk to be streaming forward in unison. The thing I can't figure out is why it has taken so long for a team to exploit it. Could it simply be a case of teams missing their chances early?

I won't be surprised if a team got a run-on early against the Pies in a final and blew them out. Despite last week's loss they haven't really had that smack in the mouth wake up call yet. Are they going to be good enough or flexible enough when the chips are down and playing a composed team?

[titan_uranus 24,963]

9 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Appreciate the time put in to this post. I get that you rate us but everything  you've written is just what any optimistic supporter would write about their own side. I'll play the opposing side. 

AF posts similarly. Things like noting that Collingwood's home and away record and ability to win games even when behind is something to be concerned about rather than celebrated? And the fact that they choose to play a more aggressive, offensively minded game plan is a negative rather than a positive. And you say they have achieved nothing. But they made a Grand Final in 2018, lost by a kick had a couple of down years and missed out on a Grand Final birth last year away against an unbelievable Sydney by under a kick. Why do you ignore things like this? It works against you because it proves that their game does stack up in finals. They were a kick away from a grand final?

You know, I wonder if it were Melbourne with that kind of win/loss in close games, would you be saying that it's a negative? Or would it be something like, "we have an incredible will to win and this will give us an edge in any game no matter how far behind we are"... 

I think the latter. 

And as far as the last three seasons have gone from round 17 onwards. I'd say that our record suggests to me that it's likely we will lose one and even two games. 

In 2021 we went 5-1-1 from round 17-23. 5 wins with one 9 point win over West Coast and a kick after the siren goal against Geelong which completely changed the fate of our finals series by gifting us a qualifyer against Brisbane instead of Port at the Adelaide oval. We drew to Hawthorn over that period and lost to the dogs. 

In 2022 we went 4-3 in the last seven rounds. 

There are 24 rounds this season so let's go from round 18.

We're 3-0 so far with a one point win against Brisbane and a 4 point win over an decimated Adelaide at our home ground. I think it'd be wise to acknowledge some luck falling our way in those games if you're going to allow luck for Collingwood's close games. We have games against Carlton and Sydney still to come who can both play finals. 

So, with all this in mind, it's clear as to why I think it'd be likely that we lose two from here. I don't think we're playing our most consistent football. I think we're still patchy and having quarters or patches of brilliance as well as periods of really poor football. 

I think we've been lucky against Brisbane and Adelaide in those wins. 

So is it any wonder why one would think two losses from here onwards would be likely? I mean with Cerra now added to Carlton's enormous injury list and Buddy no longer playing his fairwell game against us, it might mean it's likely we lose 1 rather than 2.

All in all, I just think you have a lot more faith in us right now than I do. I think the opportunity is there for us and I think we're capable of winning all our remaining games from here.

But I think our history and formline suggest we won't. 

And I'm not sure how that can be debated? 

IMO, 3-1 is the "likely" outcome. 4-0 is optimistic, 2-2 is pessimistic.

I think @binman's take on our form is almost as good as it could possibly get, whilst some of what you've said here is unnecessarily negative. "Decimated" Adelaide? We played that game without the game's best midfielder and our best forward. I know Adelaide was missing Rachele, Laird and Doedee but with our outs as well, the gap wasn't really enough to make them "decimated" (they also proceeded to belt Port by 10 goals one week later so it's hardly like other clubs are finding it easy to beat that side).

And focusing on "luck" against Brisbane and Adelaide is fair, because as I've argued all through Collingwood's 2022-23, you need luck to win close games (as well as skill). But it obviously also applies to Collingwood, and other sides who squeak through close games, such as GWS against us.

[binman 42,468]

38 minutes ago, layzie said:

I'd go as far as saying that the Dusty goal was the only one we've given up like that this year, 2 or 3 at most.

I like your Rugby analogy, the flat line is typically used in defence when you don't have the ball in Rugby so it is high risk to be streaming forward in unison. The thing I can't figure out is why it has taken so long for a team to exploit it. Could it simply be a case of teams missing their chances early?

I won't be surprised if a team got a run-on early against the Pies in a final and blew them out. Despite last week's loss they haven't really had that smack in the mouth wake up call yet. Are they going to be good enough or flexible enough when the chips are down and playing a composed team?

Teams have been exploiting it against the Pies.

It's why, for such a good team - and very much unlike us - they so infrequently blow other teams away. And also why they have been behind at 3 quarter time in 17 of their last 32 games.

My take is the vulnerability has not been exploited (or discussed much - until now) more often for three main, interrelated, reasons.

The first is they have been winning - an incredible record in home and away games in the in the last season and a half. Winning papers over a lot of cracks - as many DL posters noted about the dees in the first half of 2022 .

Second, their last quarter record has been phenomenal. But again that ability to come from behind papers over a lot of cracks.

On that point, a factor in their last quarter record is their deserved psychological edge they have in such situations - they expect to run over teams, and the oppo (and fans and their fan boys in the commentary box) do too. But if that bubble is burst they will lose that edge.

They couldn't run us down and they couldn't run the blues down. They ran Port down, but maybe the comp is now looking at Port and wondering if they are that good after all.

And third, their style of play, and ability to run over teams in the last, is built on phenomenal fitness and running power relative to the opposition. We saw on Sunday the advantage such relative fitness has when we completely ran the tigers into the ground - they just could not go with us. 

On SEN, Sanderson has been talking about the Pies fitness advantage all season (and the Crows too for that matter) and has all but said it makes them unbeatable. I have heard him 2-3 times compare their relative fitness and running power advantage to ours in 2021 (which he rightly says is why we dominated the finals series that year).

But what's weird about that analysis is the implication the Pies will maintain that relative advantage to the end of the season - particularly the implication we won't close the gap. As we are starting to see, it's a complete nonsense.

I think they have more elite aerobic runners. And across the board they are so quick over the ground. It's def their point of difference. And drives a really exciting brand of footy that everyone loves.

We have fewer such aerobic runners (Nibbler, Spargo, Hunter and langers) but more elite power athletes (Tracc, Oliver, Viney, Salem, Sparrow). 

I would argue we have a better balance of athlete types for finals, but leaving that discussion aside, there is no way (assuming we have got our program right and don't have injuries) that come finals, the Pies will have a fitness edge over us - and increasingly perhaps not such an edge over other teams either (and it remains to be see if the Pies have got their fitness program right).

Take that advantage away and the Pies come back to the pack.      

Edited August 1, 2023 by binman

[Wodjathefirst 2,632]

7 hours ago, monoccular said:

Thanks binman - fabulous analysis once again.

Wodja - who is happier? The pessimist who is always right, or the optimist who is sometimes wrong?

Good question! From a footy perspective I reckon an optimist lives in hope week in week out.  If we win, very happy, if we lose,  not happy but we continue to live in hope. Get to the pointy end of the season we most likely will be feeling miserable (trust me, been there done that for most of my life)….. but then there is always next year.

The good old pessimist (particularly if they follow the Dees) must I guess have a perverse sort of pleasure when we lose…. for being proven right.  I do wonder if they enjoy the victories as much as the optimists….because they know they got it wrong.  Particularly so if and when we win the big one.  Can they truly feel as happy as an optimist in this situation? (I can imagine a pure pessimist wanting us to lose a close one just so they can say they were correct). But then again, there is always next year.

(All tongue in cheek….ironically, we have one thing in common, we both follow the Mighty Dees).

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,777]

If we win all our games and get some percentage v. North,, and Collingwood lose all theirs.....we're minor premiers again!

[rpfc 28,220]

3 hours ago, binman said:

It's not the swarm that makes them vulnerable.

We swarm too - it is at the heart of the method we adapted from the tigers (I dislike hardwick, but he deserves huge credit for changing how the game is played) - pressure and get numbers to the contest, win the ball and sweep forward in a rugby like line and have players run hard to get ahead of the ball to create options.

The pies perhaps commit more numbers in that swarm, but what makes the pies vulnerable is the risks they take and their defensive system.

They expose themselves to turnover because they flick it around trying to get the ball to the outside and when they get it outside take on high risk kicks - often into the corridor.

Looks great when it works, but place the kicker under enough pressure and/or get numbers into the corridor and they turn it over, and often in very dangerous spots (and their handballs to feed it out can be turned over too).

But it is the second vulnerability, very much interconnected with the first, that really hurts them.

Their defensive lines pushes so high on transition, and in one flat line (ie no goal keeper) that when they turn the ball over they are at massive risks of goals out the back on the counter.

That is all true of all teams using that swarm method, but our defensive sytem protects us on turnover.

We have been experimenting with a similar approach to thstvof the pies in the last 3 games, which is a big reason why we have scored so much - but also why we have leaked so many goals.

The dusty goal where he was left alone in the goal square was the perfect example. We rarely give up such goals.

I'm sure we will revert back to something more like our normal defensive system come finals, including greater use of tempo (we saw a bit of borh in the second half against the tigers) - but the new normal will retain elements of the method we are experimenting with atm.

We can play both styles. And a hybrid.

Hard to see how pies can adjust theirs so late in the season given they havent experimented in games with alternative methods.

The Pies literally leave their line at the smell of a turnover to crowd the footy and win it. That’s what I mean as the swarm - you can it’s a ‘high HB’ but it’s a massive gamble at the point of the possible turnover to win it. We, and other teams, wait for the turnover and then commit numbers to the counter. I see it as very different. And my read is it is a real tactic to avoid 1-1 contests where possible because they don’t have there cattle to win them.

With us - I see the last few weeks with just a loosening of the shackles on turnover and commitment to forward movement and the corridor on turnover and stoppage play. It’s hurt us defensively but who cares because it has got us going and given some confidence that we can score to a new forming forward line.

I agree we are more balanced (hard not to be), and that we can fall back on our defensive press and front half pressure should our minds be right.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

When does the round 24 fixture times finally get announced? The game is on this month and still no news...

I'm sure posters are planning their trips to Sydney and it would be handy to know when the game is on, and to organise tickets.

I would like to think Sunday night the AFL will have it out

Edited August 2, 2023 by david_neitz_is_my_dad

[Roost it far 8,104]

Chat GPT has its own view of our season

 

The Demons' 2023 AFL season was an excruciating rollercoaster of emotions, plunging their loyal supporter, Roost it Far, and the entire fanbase into a state of despair. Despite their unwavering faith, the team's performances were nothing short of dismal, as they struggled to secure only a paltry 65% win rate. Roost It Far, a passionate advocate for the club, felt the weight of every loss, with hopes for a triumphant season quickly fading away.

Amidst the team's turmoil, star player Clayton Oliver's personal demons surfaced as he battled addiction problems off the field. His struggles took a toll on his game, leaving a noticeable void in the team's midfield and impacting their overall performance. The Demons' lack of support and intervention for Oliver further exacerbated the situation, raising questions about the club's duty of care towards its players.

To make matters worse, the Demons' drafting of Grundy proved to be a glaring misstep. The highly-touted recruit failed to live up to expectations, and his underwhelming performances only added to the team's mounting woes. The lack of depth and a solid draft strategy left the Demons reeling and unable to compete at the highest level.

As the season wore on, Roost it Far and devoted supporters clung to hope, desperately wishing for a turnaround. However, the Demons' 2023 campaign will forever be etched as a season marked by personal struggles, recruitment misfires, and unfulfilled promises, leaving the club at a crossroads with an uncertain future.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,674]

4 hours ago, binman said:

Teams have been exploiting it against the Pies.

It's why, for such a good team - and very much unlike us - they so infrequently blow other teams away. And also why they have been behind at 3 quarter time in 17 of their last 32 games.

My take is the vulnerability has not been exploited (or discussed much - until now) more often for three main, interrelated, reasons.

The first is they have been winning - an incredible record in home and away games in the in the last season and a half. Winning papers over a lot of cracks - as many DL posters noted about the dees in the first half of 2022 .

Second, their last quarter record has been phenomenal. But again that ability to come from behind papers over a lot of cracks.

On that point, a factor in their last quarter record is their deserved psychological edge they have in such situations - they expect to run over teams, and the oppo (and fans and their fan boys in the commentary box) do too. But if that bubble is burst they will lose that edge.

They couldn't run us down and they couldn't run the blues down. They ran Port down, but maybe the comp is now looking at Port and wondering if they are that good after all.

And third, their style of play, and ability to run over teams in the last, is built on phenomenal fitness and running power relative to the opposition. We saw on Sunday the advantage such relative fitness has when we completely ran the tigers into the ground - they just could not go with us. 

On SEN, Sanderson has been talking about the Pies fitness advantage all season (and the Crows too for that matter) and has all but said it makes them unbeatable. I have heard him 2-3 times compare their relative fitness and running power advantage to ours in 2021 (which he rightly says is why we dominated the finals series that year).

But what's weird about that analysis is the implication the Pies will maintain that relative advantage to the end of the season - particularly the implication we won't close the gap. As we are starting to see, it's a complete nonsense.

I think they have more elite aerobic runners. And across the board they are so quick over the ground. It's def their point of difference. And drives a really exciting brand of footy that everyone loves.

We have fewer such aerobic runners (Nibbler, Spargo, Hunter and langers) but more elite power athletes (Tracc, Oliver, Viney, Salem, Sparrow). 

I would argue we have a better balance of athlete types for finals, but leaving that discussion aside, there is no way (assuming we have got our program right and don't have injuries) that come finals, the Pies will have a fitness edge over us - and increasingly perhaps not such an edge over other teams either (and it remains to be see if the Pies have got their fitness program right).

Take that advantage away and the Pies come back to the pack.      

Port are no good @binman that bubble has well and truely burst.

[Vitamin Dee 863]

No one will want to play us, I think we’re coming into ‘flick the switch’ footy. Fingers crossed. 

[jnrmac 20,040]

The Pies play on fumes. They have been doing it for a year or so. Its incredibly taxing. As is having to come from behind all the time.

They're good but their game style is absolutely beatable as we showed.

I maintain we changed our game plan against Carlton as a training run for the collingwood game. We kicked something like 16g 40b in those two games but kept them both to small scores. We have since changed the way we play considerably. BUt we know what to do to beat those sides. 

We are tracking nicely and no one wants to play us in finals.

[binman 42,468]

3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I maintain we changed our game plan against Carlton as a training run for the collingwood game. 

My take too. 

[Roost it far 8,104]

Of course no one wants to play us in finals, we’ve just put this puppy into gear.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Roost it far

[biggestred 4,975]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

The Pies play on fumes. They have been doing it for a year or so. Its incredibly taxing. As is having to come from behind all the time.

They're good but their game style is absolutely beatable as we showed.

I maintain we changed our game plan against Carlton as a training run for the collingwood game. We kicked something like 16g 40b in those two games but kept them both to small scores. We have since changed the way we play considerably. BUt we know what to do to beat those sides. 

We are tracking nicely and no one wants to play us in finals.

I think we went back to that mode on Sunday in the 2nd half. Rich had 17 inside 50s for 6.1 in the 2nd half. 

[binman 42,468]

11 hours ago, BDA said:

And I think buddy not playing is a help to the swans rather than a hindrance.

So do I.

I would prefer he was playing.

For one thing is he is past it, his recent slight up tick in form notwithstanding.

For another, carrying a player who can't cover territory or is as slow as buddy now is, puts them behind the 8 ball because the clicks have to covered by the rest of the team. 

And May matches up perfectly on buddy as evidenced by the fact he has given him a complete bath every time he has played on him since may came to the dees.

I'd have to look it up, but I doubt buddy has kicked mutiple goals against the dees more than two or three times in the last seven years.

[Adam The God 30,026]

Old mate has absolutely [censored] the bed in this thread. The odds don't reflect a true formline? I mean, possibly the nuffiest thing I've seen posted in a long time.

11 hours ago, binman said:

...there is no way (assuming we have got our program right and don't have injuries) that come finals, the Pies will have a fitness edge over us - and increasingly perhaps not such an edge over other teams either (and it remains to be see if the Pies have got their fitness program right).

Take that advantage away and the Pies come back to the pack.      

If Collingwood don't have the ability to come back after their usual three quarter time deficit, they become easily a bottom 10 team.

If they lose 17 of those 32 they trailed at 3/4 time, no one is even talking about them now.

That's the key here. They save themselves and (as you say) paper over the cracks, namely their inability to defend big scores with their aggressive game style, with these come from behind wins that must reflect a brilliant fitness base.

Their last month will be a fascinating watch, because did we see the first sign of trouble against the Blues? They're lucky they've got Hawthorn post that Blues loss and not someone who will really test them. But Hawthorn did beat Brisbane on the G, so who knows.

4 hours ago, jnrmac said:

The Pies play on fumes. They have been doing it for a year or so. Its incredibly taxing. As is having to come from behind all the time.

They're good but their game style is absolutely beatable as we showed.

I maintain we changed our game plan against Carlton as a training run for the collingwood game. We kicked something like 16g 40b in those two games but kept them both to small scores. We have since changed the way we play considerably. BUt we know what to do to beat those sides. 

We are tracking nicely and no one wants to play us in finals.

Good calls. It'll be interesting to see if we play the Blues the same way again, or continue with the more offensive style.

My read is we'll adjust our game again to sit somewhere between both approaches, which is actually the sweet spot we should be looking for. Relax the press back to the middle of the ground, push teams wide, create turnovers and punish on slingshot.

[redandbluemakepurple 358]

On 8/1/2023 at 9:09 PM, DubDee said:

if we are 3rd before the last round. on track to play Port away in finals 

do we tank the last round?

I spent many minutes wrestling with the finals format.  I concluded that if we play Port in the first round, we get the interstate final out of the way.  We would play Collingwood in a PF or another team that finished lower than us.  I would be content.

[redandbluemakepurple 358]

The Petty shall bear us up to Glory!

I am most impressed that the FD wanted Petty forward and trained him up to do so as opposed some hare-brained scheme to recruit a fading star.