The Dees are Doing it Again

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

16 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Take away the 3 easy beats and we’re 4-2 with a couple of nice wins and a couple of less impressive ones. 

2 ordinary losses where we looked slow in the midfield, shaky down back and iffy going forward (and as importantly keeping it there).

The next month will show a lot more if we are contenders or pretenders. 

Drawing conclusions about our ‘explosive’ style of play from smashing the Hawks or any other battling side isn’t wise.

I think we have probably revised down the meaning of the win against Swans (even though they had far fewer injuries back then) in the light of their recent performances. They have still historically been a bugbear team for us so I was happy to see our change in strategy being effective against them.

i suspect over the coming weeks we will likely revise up the meaning of the gold coast win, that contest was red hot and I suspect they are going to take some decent scalps this year.

 I’m happy to discount the games against the clubs competing for Harley Reid. I did really rate our pressure game in the first quarter against the hawks though. Mostly because I suspect that is going to be the key to dealing with Collingwood when the time comes.

Edited May 16, 2023 by FlashInThePan

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Wasn't sure where to put this. Firestarters and fast finishers from AFL site comparing us and the Pies. This might all change of course, here are some numbers after 9 rounds.

COLLINGWOOD has developed a reputation as the best finishers in the AFL, but it's Narrm who has proven to be unbeatable in fourth quarters so far this season.

Through nine rounds in 2023, the Demons are yet to lose a final quarter and have kicked 43 goals after three-quarter time, four more than any other team.

4th Quarters.

The following is a good little bit of insight into Pies' 4th quarters.

Numbers indicate Collingwood's reputation for winning from anywhere may well have opponents spooked; the Pies have conceded 14.27 in last quarters this year, an inaccurate return that indicates the heightened pressure teams feel late in games against Craig McRae's side.

At the other end of the game, Brisbane has been the fastest starter of 2023, losing just two of its nine first quarters. Adelaide, Melbourne and Geelong have also won six of nine first terms.

1st Quarters

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

6 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Wasn't sure where to put this. Firestarters and fast finishers from AFL site comparing us and the Pies. This might all change of course, here are some numbers after 9 rounds.

COLLINGWOOD has developed a reputation as the best finishers in the AFL, but it's Narrm who has proven to be unbeatable in fourth quarters so far this season.

Through nine rounds in 2023, the Demons are yet to lose a final quarter and have kicked 43 goals after three-quarter time, four more than any other team.

4th Quarters.

The following is a good little bit of insight into Pies' 4th quarters.

Numbers indicate Collingwood's reputation for winning from anywhere may well have opponents spooked; the Pies have conceded 14.27 in last quarters this year, an inaccurate return that indicates the heightened pressure teams feel late in games against Craig McRae's side.

At the other end of the game, Brisbane has been the fastest starter of 2023, losing just two of its nine first quarters. Adelaide, Melbourne and Geelong have also won six of nine first terms.

1st Quarters

Great stuff! Well done on the research - maybe pop it into the Game Plan and Jazz thread? If you don’t feel it’s too Collingwood centric 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[leave it to deever 17,511]

14 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Whilst this isn’t an unreasonable analysis, it’s worth remembering IMO that:

1. We had no Hibberd or May against Brisbane and lost Gawn 15 minutes in

2. We had no Hibberd, Lever or Gawn against Essendon on a six day break after a warm game in Perth. 

Not excuses, just some thoughts. IMO our inability to intercept in both games crippled our scoring ability. This week v Port we should have all of Gawn, May, Hibberd and Lever. 

Good observations. Both our backlines and forward lines have never been settled. Alas though, the problem continues. On paper our injuries don't look that huge but every week from the start we have had our best players hit with something. 

[Adam The God 30,239]

Loving the increased focus on data and analysis on Demonland. ❤️

[Damo 3,356]

RC hates Melbourne. I was standing near him in 2012 when he was talking to my Bombers supporting mate at a kids Soccer game chortling at length about how we would remain [censored] for at least another generation. He went on to say things about what we stand for and how irrelevant we are. I remeber it well.RC left TV media because he found it too stressful and said it scared him.

I have no love at all for the person. If he has changed, I guess I wont know as I avoid his content. 

Ok I feel better now :)

[titan_uranus 25,016]

2 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Good observations. Both our backlines and forward lines have never been settled. Alas though, the problem continues. On paper our injuries don't look that huge but every week from the start we have had our best players hit with something. 

I agree, our backline in particular has seen rotation weekly. This week might be the first time we aren’t making a change to personnel down there. 

The forward line rotation is more of our own experimentation though. 

[binman 42,920]

2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Great stuff! Well done on the research - maybe pop it into the Game Plan and Jazz thread? If you don’t feel it’s too Collingwood centric 

There's heaps of really great posts by any number of posters across multiple threads of late, exploring stuff relevant to the Game plan thread.

I've been meaning to go thru the threads and cut as paste relevant ones and pop in the Game plan thread so it is in the one spot and there as a reference - i'll do so when i get some time

 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

26 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I agree, our backline in particular has seen rotation weekly. This week might be the first time we aren’t making a change to personnel down there. 

The forward line rotation is more of our own experimentation though. 

Thanks for this but I really think our forward line has also been hampered by factors other than our own making. Bbb's back injury. Frittas injury that kept him out for the first 2 games I think, may still be problematic. Tmac's ankle/ foot and Kozzie getting himself suspended ( well I guess that was our own making). Also Max and Grundy were planned to go fwd and this was shot down by Max's knee injury. I dare say if we were injury free or Bbb and or Tmac were playing like they did in 21 ( well the first half for Tmac and the second for Bbb), we would be sitting in top spot. Seeing Petty play on Saturday really showed what a difference a dynamic forward makes to our results . In one half he had 6 mark and 2 goals. Extrapolate this to a forward with 12 marks and four goals is something that has really been missing for us this year barring Bbb who kicked 8 in his first two.

I'm excited about the progress of Jvr but he's still developing.  Schache didn't really show anything imho to feel the same about. Smith has been around for a while now and the club doesn't seem to have shown much faith in him. I know he's bee plagued by injuries. Without Petty being a successful option our season will be influenced significantly by what goes on with Bbb/ Tmac.

I guess I'm just venting that we really do miss an established tall fwd who can crash packs and significantly increase our contested marking. The Gcs game marking differential really stood out. This was something Tmac was really good at playing chf. I remember how excited were all were when Bbb was recruitied and we were ruminating on the delightful dilemma of Weid, Tmac and Bbb. I just hope Bbb comes in and takes his chances. Have always been a huge fan of Tmac but it seems as if his body is really letting him down.

Edited May 17, 2023 by leave it to deever

[Adam The God 30,239]

1 hour ago, Damo said:

RC hates Melbourne. I was standing near him in 2012 when he was talking to my Bombers supporting mate at a kids Soccer game chortling at length about how we would remain [censored] for at least another generation. He went on to say things about what we stand for and how irrelevant we are. I remeber it well.RC left TV media because he found it too stressful and said it scared him.

I have no love at all for the person. If he has changed, I guess I wont know as I avoid his content. 

Ok I feel better now :)

Sounds like a typical Essendon supporter to me. Speaking of irrelevant. Long may it continue.

[Stu 919]

On 5/16/2023 at 10:01 AM, A F said:

As @Jaded No More has pointed out, we have a very similar formline to Collingwood. Except Collingwood has had to come back from deficits in most of their games, while we've controlled our games. 

It's interesting that you seem to think Collingwood are the yardstick, and to an extent I agree given their recent record over us, however we're in the top 4 for all major scoring routes and Collingwood are top 4 for scores from stoppages (as are we) and that's it.

Collingwood are far more like us in 2018, but aren't scoring as heavily as us. They play the aggressive, all or nothing press and send extra players to the stoppages, exactly what we were doing in 2018, except we used an anchor/goalkeeper out the back. Collingwood do not, which as @binman highlighted on the podcast last night, leaves them very vulnerable out the back - see last year's final against Geelong.

Begrudgingly admire what Collingwood has been able to achieve in the space of 12 months, but I reckon Collingwood should be using us as the yardstick, not the other way around.

Great post! Collingwood are a great team, and McRae seems to have created a positive culture very quickly. 
 

I think their game plan relies on constant and immense pressure on the opposition. Because they attack so aggressively through the corridor, they really rely on each player rolling off their direct opponent to pressure any player that gets goal side of someone further up the ground. 
 

Brisbane showed how much it can hurt them when you don’t allow implied pressure to cause panic. The lions could have won by more if they weren’t so fumbly (like us). 
 

There’s two parts to whether Collingwood win it all this year - can they play at that intensity all year, and have they shown their hand too early that teams will have time to work out how to beat them.

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Stu

[binman 42,920]

5 minutes ago, Stu said:

Great post! Collingwood are a great team, and McRae seems to have created a positive culture very quickly. 
 

I think their game plan relies on constant and immense pressure on the opposition. Because they attack so aggressively through the corridor, they really rely on each player rolling off their direct opponent to pressure any player that gets goal side of someone further up the ground. 
 

Brisbane showed how much it can hurt them when you don’t allow imply pressure to cause panic. The lions could have won by more if they weren’t so fumbly (like us). 
 

There’s two parts to whether Collingwood win it all this year - can they play at that intensity all year, and have they shown their hand too early and teams will work out how to beat them.

 

And a third (or perhaps part of maintaining their intensity) - can they remain as fit.

We face the same question.

[Stu 919]

Just now, binman said:

And a third (or perhaps part of maintaining their intensity) - can they remain as fit.

We face the same question.

I watch how aggressively they dive into each contest and I can foresee a few injuries coming along. The last quarter comebacks must also be taxing. 

[binman 42,920]

1 hour ago, Stu said:

I watch how aggressively they dive into each contest and I can foresee a few injuries coming along. The last quarter comebacks must also be taxing. 

Mentally and physically 

[rpfc 28,408]

9 hours ago, Damo said:

RC hates Melbourne. I was standing near him in 2012 when he was talking to my Bombers supporting mate at a kids Soccer game chortling at length about how we would remain [censored] for at least another generation. He went on to say things about what we stand for and how irrelevant we are. I remeber it well.RC left TV media because he found it too stressful and said it scared him.

I have no love at all for the person. If he has changed, I guess I wont know as I avoid his content. 

Ok I feel better now :)

If we avoided the content of everyone who said we were irrelevant and stood for nothing - we would be ignoring all in the media and half of Demonland…

You’d be ignoring me… me?!

AND YOU WOULDNT WANT THAT

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

King on 360 tonight came up with some more numbers in our favour. Scores conceded from kick ins that end up 70-80m out from their own goal whether it’s the first or second kick. He thinks it will cost someone a final if they don’t get this right.

These are the bottom 4 for scores against when that team is kicking in from a behind. Hawks being the worst with 19 goals coming back the other way. 

Differential
#15 GWS -46

#16 Blues -51

#17 Richmond -67

#18 Hawthorn -87

We have only conceded 3 goals from our kick ins. King says May just doesn’t make mistakes when he kicks in, he has one club in the bag and that’s the 1 Wood. So our madness of going left all the time is simply good coaching. Go long to your tall targets where the numbers are and get a stoppage. If it comes back the other way we are already set up behind the ball ready for an intercept.

Top 4
#1 Melbourne +21

#2 Bulldogs +1 

# 3 Adelaide -1

# 4 Essendon -2

Edited May 17, 2023 by Dee Zephyr

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

On 5/16/2023 at 8:15 AM, Maldonboy38 said:

A real measure for me has three components:

• Keeping opposition to around 60 points per game
• Dees kicking 90+ points per game.
• We win the contested ball differential

It can never be this precise game by game, but when results start to resemble this measure, we are unstoppable. 

A real bummer is Petty going down - he was taking marks inside 50 which is possibly our F50 weakness.

 

Looking at that game only, it seemed to me that we were made to hold the mark longer, otherwise the signal was not in control, play on. The same went for opposition holding ball decisions not paid, and pushing in back, which in my opinion is going to get someone killed very soon.      ALL DISCRETIONARY.

[binman 42,920]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

King on 360 tonight came up with some more numbers in our favour. Scores conceded from kick ins that end up 70-80m out from their own goal whether it’s the first or second kick. He thinks it will cost someone a final if they don’t get this right.

These are the bottom 4 for scores against when that team is kicking in from a behind. Hawks being the worst with 19 goals coming back the other way. 

Differential
#15 GWS -46

#16 Blues -51

#17 Richmond -67

#18 Hawthorn -87

We have only conceded 3 goals from our kick ins. King says May just doesn’t make mistakes when he kicks in, he has one club in the bag and that’s the 1 Wood. So our madness of going left all the time is simply good coaching. Go long to your tall targets where the numbers are and get a stoppage. If it comes back the other way we are already set up behind the ball ready for an intercept.

Top 4
#1 Melbourne +21

#2 Bulldogs +1 

# 3 Adelaide -1

# 4 Essendon -2

What he King didn't point out though is that, yes may often boots it long to a contest 80 odd metres - but nowhere as often as the ladt 2 seasons.

For one thing, he's no longer taking almost all the kick outs. 

But may and others who take the kick out are going short to the both pockets more often to set up a transition play (ie not a short 20 metre kick and then a 50 metre kick to a contest)

[Willmoy1947 4,085]

14 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

I think we have probably revised down the meaning of the win against Swans (even though they had far fewer injuries back then) in the light of their recent performances. They have still historically been a bugbear team for us so I was happy to see our change in strategy being effective against them.

i suspect over the coming weeks we will likely revise up the meaning of the gold coast win, that contest was red hot and I suspect they are going to take some decent scalps this year.

 I’m happy to discount the games against the clubs competing for Harley Reid. I did really rate our pressure game in the first quarter against the hawks though. Mostly because I suspect that is going to be the key to dealing with Collingwood when the time comes.

Queens Birthday Game

May v Mihocek, play him from behind, whatever, punch, don't bother mark. He just bleeds to the umpire, every game, every chance. The classic winger....

 MacDonald v Maynard, he can only swing one way, and needs to be played Ess close after every contest, will be tiring but it might work.

[Adam The God 30,239]

1 hour ago, Willmoy1947 said:

Queens Birthday Game

May v Mihocek, play him from behind, whatever, punch, don't bother mark. He just bleeds to the umpire, every game, every chance. The classic winger....

 MacDonald v Maynard, he can only swing one way, and needs to be played Ess close after every contest, will be tiring but it might work.

Maynard is decent on his right foot...

[praha 11,240]

On 5/16/2023 at 10:03 AM, A F said:

RC is a republican and a lefty? 

And I'm a Republican and a lefty, and still refer to Queen's Birthday or King's Birthday as such. What else do you want to call it for ease of clarification? 😄

Non-Specific Royal Monarch Obligatory Celebration of Birth Day.

[layzie 33,796]

22 hours ago, Damo said:

RC hates Melbourne. I was standing near him in 2012 when he was talking to my Bombers supporting mate at a kids Soccer game chortling at length about how we would remain [censored] for at least another generation. He went on to say things about what we stand for and how irrelevant we are. I remeber it well.RC left TV media because he found it too stressful and said it scared him.

I have no love at all for the person. If he has changed, I guess I wont know as I avoid his content. 

Ok I feel better now :)

The thing is, was he wrong at the time?

Every man and his dog were piling on us back then.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,214]

On 5/17/2023 at 10:45 AM, Damo said:

RC hates Melbourne. I was standing near him in 2012 when he was talking to my Bombers supporting mate at a kids Soccer game chortling at length about how we would remain [censored] for at least another generation. He went on to say things about what we stand for and how irrelevant we are.

In 2012 this was a unanimous position on Demonland.

I like RC, can tell he genuinely loves his footy. He reminds me of Robbo but with half a brain. Decent taste in music too.

[DemonWA 3,934]

On 5/17/2023 at 8:37 AM, A F said:

Loving the increased focus on data and analysis on Demonland. ❤️

I prefer the usual emotional reactions, especially those that just regurgitate whatever the commentary team or pundits say haba