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Stats Files - 2023

Demon Dynasty
Demon Dynasty
in Melbourne Demons

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8 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 16, 2023 TIO Traegar Park - Demons vs Giants

Much effort made by many only to result in a shocker forward of center (again).

At least 12 of the 22 a long way off their season averages and those averages include last week's poor outcome.  Some of them a mile off.  A few others holding up their end.  Viney, Bowey & Lever.  Petty a much better result vs his come back last week.

6.8% of inside 50s into goals has to be some sort of low record for us and the AFL surely.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  87.80
% In50s Goal 6.80
Conversion % 25.00

Giants

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  53.14
% In50s Goal 15.20
Conversion %

58.30

Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
J Viney 4.350 1 3.654 19.05
C Petracca 3.975 2 4.775 -16.75
H Petty 3.950 3 2.275 73.63
J Bowey 3.875 4 3.078 25.89
A Brayshaw 3.700 5 3.761 -1.62
Jake Lever 3.650 6 2.992 21.99
Max Gawn 3.325 7 3.168 4.96
Ed Langdon 3.025 7 2.983 1.41
S May 2.950 9 3.168 -6.88
B Grundy 2.850 10 3.182 -10.43
C Salem 2.725 11 3.495 -22.03
T Rivers 2.475 12 3.757 -34.12
T Sparrow 2.450 13 2.998 -18.28
L Hunter 2.325 14 2.975 -21.85
B Brown 2.325 15 2.033 14.36
J Harmes 2.325 16 2.938 -20.86
J McVee 1.875 17 2.230 -15.92
K Chandler 1.500 18 2.423 -38.09
K Pickett 1.450 19 2.379 -39.05
J Melksham > 69% 1.150 20 1.437 -19.97
Joel Smith 0.925 21 1.817 -49.09
A N-Bullen 0.850 22 2.695 -68.46
B Fritsch < 7% 0.100 23 2.235 -95.53
Team Rating 58.03   71.52 -18.87
Top 6 23.50   26.43 -11.09
Bottom 6 7.75   9.36 -17.20

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Thanks DD the weather conditions were atrocious but our forward 50’s were even worse than that we are plumbing the depths with our conversion down to a record low of 25%. I hate to say it but we are currently a Mess.

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    10 minutes ago, binman said:

    Expected score from Champion Data

    77 - 43

    Says it all. 

     

    So we were supposed to score 77 points from 73 entries into our forward line.

    BEEP BEEP BEEP.

    What’s that noise?

    It’s the forward line connection.

    Its dead.

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    Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 16, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

    Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
    C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
    C Petracca 4.722 2 4.456 5.97 2 0
    J Jordon > 3.986 3 3.164 25.98 9 6
    A Brayshaw 3.757 4 3.839 -2.14 5 1
    Jack Viney 3.704 5 3.971 -6.72 3 -2
    T Rivers < 3.670 6 2.423 51.47 18 12
    C Salem 3.367 7 3.363 0.12 7 0
    Max Gawn 3.182 8 3.643 -12.65 8 0
    B Grundy 3.160 9 - - - -
    Ed Langdon 3.157 10 3.109 1.54 11 1
    Steven May 3.152 11 3.971 -20.62 3 -8
    Jake Bowey < 3.144 12 2.856 10.08 13 1
    Jake Lever 3.039 13 2.703 12.43 14 1
    A Tomlinson 2.965 14 2.079 42.62 22 8
    T Sparrow 2.959 15 2.665 11.03 16 1
    L Hunter 2.929 16 - - - -
    J Harmes > 2.804 17 3.082 -9.02 12 -5
    M Hibberd < 2.589 18 2.613 -0.92 17 -1
    A N-Bullen 2.572 19 2.688 -4.32 15 -4
    H Petty < 2.454 20 2.392 2.59 19 -1
    K Chandler < 2.360 21 - - - -
    K Pickett 2.308 22 2.118 8.97 21 -1
    B Fritsch 2.230 23 1.936 15.19 27 4
    Judd McVee 2.207 24 - - - -
    J V Rooyen 2.183 25 - - - -
    Ben Brown < 2.106 26 1.762 19.52 29 3
    T McDonald 2.054 27 1.967 4.42 26 -1
    C Spargo < 1.891 28 1.981 -4.54 24 -4
    Joel Smith 1.594 29 2.239 -28.81 20 -9
    J Melksham > 1.509 30 1.947 -22.50 25 -5
    J Schache * 1.375 31 - - - -
    B Laurie < > * 1.300 32 - - - -
    D Turner < * 1.075 33 - - - -
    Team Rating 71.27   69.48 2.57    

    * Played less than two full matches (in total)

    < Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

    > Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

    Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

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    On 7/3/2023 at 7:11 AM, spirit of norm smith said:

    +70 possessions. 
    +42 contested possessions. 
    +27 inside 50’s. 
    + 8 scoring shots. 
    +15 free kicks. 
    +19 clearances
    lost by two points 

    Goodwin.  Time to fix it.  You’re the coach.  Our forward structure is horrible.  Entries into forward 50 are haphazard.  “We’ve been working on it”.  Wow. It doesn’t show. It’s got worse in fact.  

    Yeah, I notice you left out 26 to 12 shots. 36% shots per i50 vs 26% shots per i50.  Conversion was the problem.

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    @WheeloRatings have you got goals, behinds and misses from set shots and general play for each team, please?

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    20 hours ago, old55 said:

    @WheeloRatings have you got goals, behinds and misses from set shots and general play for each team, please?

    Is this what you had in mind?

    Set Shots

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Fremantle 194 114 48 32 58.8
    Geelong 244 142 66 36 58.2
    Essendon 191 109 60 22 57.1
    Melbourne 219 124 68 27 56.6
    Brisbane 229 129 74 26 56.3
    North Melbourne 169 95 50 24 56.2
    Greater Western Sydney 200 111 63 26 55.5
    West Coast 155 86 45 24 55.5
    Western Bulldogs 219 120 73 26 54.8
    St Kilda 184 100 53 31 54.3
    Richmond 192 104 52 36 54.2
    Collingwood 214 115 67 32 53.7
    Adelaide 221 118 68 35 53.4
    Sydney 217 113 72 32 52.1
    Carlton 228 118 70 40 51.8
    Gold Coast 197 99 76 22 50.3
    Port Adelaide 240 118 87 35 49.2
    Hawthorn 183 89 57 37 48.6

    General Play

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Collingwood 186 90 54 42 48.4
    North Melbourne 140 62 50 28 44.3
    Adelaide 219 96 75 48 43.8
    Port Adelaide 204 88 73 43 43.1
    Sydney 193 82 76 35 42.5
    Brisbane 202 85 71 46 42.1
    Geelong 152 63 58 31 41.4
    Essendon 196 81 75 40 41.3
    St Kilda 183 73 55 55 39.9
    Fremantle 166 66 55 45 39.8
    Gold Coast 179 71 66 42 39.7
    Greater Western Sydney 177 69 66 42 39.0
    Melbourne 185 72 68 45 38.9
    Hawthorn 162 61 63 38 37.7
    Richmond 178 66 72 40 37.1
    Western Bulldogs 152 55 68 29 36.2
    West Coast 133 44 48 41 33.1
    Carlton 152 46 64 42 30.3

     

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    4 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

    Is this what you had in mind?

    Set Shots

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Fremantle 194 114 48 32 58.8
    Geelong 244 142 66 36 58.2
    Essendon 191 109 60 22 57.1
    Melbourne 219 124 68 27 56.6
    Brisbane 229 129 74 26 56.3
    North Melbourne 169 95 50 24 56.2
    Greater Western Sydney 200 111 63 26 55.5
    West Coast 155 86 45 24 55.5
    Western Bulldogs 219 120 73 26 54.8
    St Kilda 184 100 53 31 54.3
    Richmond 192 104 52 36 54.2
    Collingwood 214 115 67 32 53.7
    Adelaide 221 118 68 35 53.4
    Sydney 217 113 72 32 52.1
    Carlton 228 118 70 40 51.8
    Gold Coast 197 99 76 22 50.3
    Port Adelaide 240 118 87 35 49.2
    Hawthorn 183 89 57 37 48.6

    General Play

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Collingwood 186 90 54 42 48.4
    North Melbourne 140 62 50 28 44.3
    Adelaide 219 96 75 48 43.8
    Port Adelaide 204 88 73 43 43.1
    Sydney 193 82 76 35 42.5
    Brisbane 202 85 71 46 42.1
    Geelong 152 63 58 31 41.4
    Essendon 196 81 75 40 41.3
    St Kilda 183 73 55 55 39.9
    Fremantle 166 66 55 45 39.8
    Gold Coast 179 71 66 42 39.7
    Greater Western Sydney 177 69 66 42 39.0
    Melbourne 185 72 68 45 38.9
    Hawthorn 162 61 63 38 37.7
    Richmond 178 66 72 40 37.1
    Western Bulldogs 152 55 68 29 36.2
    West Coast 133 44 48 41 33.1
    Carlton 152 46 64 42 30.3

     

    That's great thanks. I was actually thinking of the GWS match specifically- can you please just give me that for comparison.

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    ***Trigger Warning. Potentially optimistic information ahead.

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/963110/sharpshooters-to-shankers-can-history-repeat-for-misfiring-dees-

    This quote stood out….

    ’Melbourne suffered a similar slump at a similar stage of the year in 2021, when Simon Goodwin's men went at an AFL-worst 37.5 per cent goalkicking accuracy from rounds 13-19.’

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    10 hours ago, old55 said:

    That's great thanks. I was actually thinking of the GWS match specifically- can you please just give me that for comparison.

    Oh sorry, that was buried in my original post. Here it is again below - Melbourne had 5 'no scores' from general play, GWS 0; Melbourne 2 'no scores' from set shots, GWS 1. Melbourne went at 12% accuracy from general play (2 goals from 17 shots, GWS 3 goals from 6 shots)!

    Team Shots G B T Acc.
    General Play
    Melbourne 17 2 10 22 11.8
    Greater Western Sydney 6 3 3 21 50.0
    Set Position
    Melbourne 9 3 4 22 33.3
    Greater Western Sydney 6 4 1 25 66.7

     

    The circles in the left half of the following field map are Melbourne's shots from general play. Melbourne's only set shot within 30 metres was Melksham's on the tight angle.

     

     

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    Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 17, 2023)

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231708

    Key Team Stats

    Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

    Stat For Against Diff
    Disposal Efficiency 75.4 75.7 -0.3
    Kicking Efficiency 70.4 68.9 +1.5
    Metres Gained 5409 5364 +45
    Inside 50s 46 52 -6
    Shots At Goal 18 21 -3
    Shots Per Inside 50 39.1 40.4 -1.3
    Contested Possessions 130 138 -8
    Ground Ball Gets 93 101 -8
    Intercepts 76 76 +0
    Intercept Marks 23 20 +3
    Centre Clearances 9 11 -2
    Stoppage Clearances 23 21 +2
    Contested Marks 9 11 -2
    Marks Inside 50 11 13 -2
    Hitouts 39 18 +21
    Hitouts To Advantage 6 5 +1
    Tackles 57 65 -8
    Tackles Inside 50 7 14 -7
    Def One On One Loss % 12.5 15.4 -2.9

    Pressure

    Team pressure

    Quarter For Against
    1 176 173
    2 174 169
    3 178 186
    4 158 172
    Match 172 175

    Source: Herald Sun

    Most Pressure Points

    Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

    Player Pressure
    Acts     		Pressure
    Points     		Season
    Average*
    Angus Brayshaw 27 65 30.6
    Jack Viney 23 59 54.1
    Kysaiah Pickett 26 56 43.1
    Charlie Spargo 24 49 26.0
    James Jordon 20 36 20.0
    Alex Neal-Bullen 19 34 49.0
    Christian Petracca 15 34 48.9
    Tom Sparrow 15 33 43.3
    Jake Lever 15 32 14.5
    Jake Bowey 13 29 21.1
    Christian Salem 8 24 30.6
    Taj Woewodin 12 23 23.0
    Ed Langdon 11 21 27.7
    Lachie Hunter 13 20 23.7
    Max Gawn 11 20 21.9
    Brodie Grundy 7 19 26.5
    Judd McVee 9 18 18.8
    Trent Rivers 8 15 23.4
    Harrison Petty 7 15 20.4
    Steven May 6 15 14.2
    Ben Brown 9 15 11.6
    Jake Melksham 7 13 14.7
    Joel Smith 3 8 23.8

    * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

    Source: Herald Sun

    Time in Forward Half

    Quarter For Against
    1 31% 69%
    2 42% 58%
    3 64% 36%
    4 39% 61%
    Match 46% 54%

    Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations.

    Score Sources

    Summary

    Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

    Category For Against Diff
    G B T G B T
    Kick-in 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0
    Centre Bounce 2 1 13 1 1 7 +6
    Stoppage (Other) 3 2 20 1 1 7 +13
    Turnover 7 4 46 6 8 44 +2
    Category For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    Kick-in 0 2.8 0 2.5
    Centre Bounce 13 10.9 7 7.1
    Stoppage (Other) 20 21.8 7 20.8
    Turnover 46 53.6 44 39.6

    Chain start region

    Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

    Category Region For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    Kick-in D50 0 2.8 0 2.5
    Centre Bounce Centre 13 10.9 7 7.1
    Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.4 0 2.0
    Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 3.0 6 1.2
    Stoppage (Other) Wing 13 10.9 0 6.2
    Stoppage (Other) F50 1 7.5 1 11.3
    Turnover D50 14 10.5 1 5.2
    Turnover Centre 12 8.4 13 5.9
    Turnover Wing 20 28.4 23 20.4
    Turnover F50 0 6.2 7 8.0
    Region For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    D50 14 13.6 1 9.8
    Centre 31 22.3 26 14.2
    Wing 33 39.3 23 26.6
    F50 1 13.8 8 19.3

    Points from defensive half

    For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    51 34.6 8 22.6

    Shots at goal

    Team Shots G B T Acc.
    General Play
    Melbourne 7 4 3 27 57.1
    St Kilda 8 2 5 17 25.0
    Set Position
    Melbourne 11 8 2 50 72.7
    St Kilda 13 6 4 40 46.2

    Centre Bounce Attendances

      CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
    James Jordon 17 71 22.8 0.2
    Jack Viney 16 67 68.4 74.6
    Angus Brayshaw 15 62 21.1 16.0
    Max Gawn 14 58 48.3 65.5
    Christian Petracca 12 50 65.3 74.6
    Tom Sparrow 12 50 48.0 32.2
    Brodie Grundy 10 42 55.7 83.7
    Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 11.4 1.3
    Trent Rivers 0 0 4.5 0.0
    Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 3.3 3.5
    Harrison Petty 0 0 1.0 0.0
    Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
    James Harmes     27.8 14.6
    Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
    Jacob van Rooyen     5.3  
    Josh Schache     0.0 13.8

    Ruck Contests and Hitouts

    Ruck Contests

      Ruck
    Contests     		RC % 2023 % 2022 %
    Max Gawn 44 54 44.8 57.8
    Brodie Grundy 36 44 49.5 77.4
    Alex Neal-Bullen 1 1 0.1 0.0
    Ben Brown 0 0 3.0 3.6
    Harrison Petty 0 0 2.3 0.0
    Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0
    Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1
    Jacob van Rooyen     9.6  
    Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
    Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
    Clayton Oliver     0.0 0.0

    Hitouts

      Ruck
    Contests     		Hitouts To
    Adv.     		To Adv. %
    (2023)     		To Adv. %
    (2022)
    Max Gawn 44 21 4 30.6 33.6
    Brodie Grundy 36 17 2 30.8 30.2
    Alex Neal-Bullen 1 1 0 0.0  
    Harrison Petty 0 0 0 22.2  
    Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0 14.3
    Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
    Jacob van Rooyen       16.7  
    Josh Schache         33.3

    Opposition hitouts

      Ruck
    Contests     		Hitouts To
    Adv.
    Rowan Marshall 65 15 4
    Mitch Owens 5 2 1
    Anthony Caminiti 9 1 0

    Expected scores (Champion Data)

    61 - 68

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    On 7/5/2023 at 11:33 PM, The heart beats true said:

    ***Trigger Warning. Potentially optimistic information ahead.

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/963110/sharpshooters-to-shankers-can-history-repeat-for-misfiring-dees-

    This quote stood out….

    ’Melbourne suffered a similar slump at a similar stage of the year in 2021, when Simon Goodwin's men went at an AFL-worst 37.5 per cent goalkicking accuracy from rounds 13-19.’

    Oh my God- a pattern!

    I don't know for a fact, but I'm pretty sure the exact same thing happened kadtbyear too in that same period (woeful accuracy rounds 13-19, not the flag bit).

    So, three years in a row in EXACTLY the same phase of the season our accuracy is under water. 

    That is not a coincidence.

     

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    35 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

    Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 17, 2023)

    https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231708

    Key Team Stats

    Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

    Stat For Against Diff
    Disposal Efficiency 75.4 75.7 -0.3
    Kicking Efficiency 70.4 68.9 +1.5
    Metres Gained 5409 5364 +45
    Inside 50s 46 52 -6
    Shots At Goal 18 21 -3
    Shots Per Inside 50 39.1 40.4 -1.3
    Contested Possessions 130 138 -8
    Ground Ball Gets 93 101 -8
    Intercepts 76 76 +0
    Intercept Marks 23 20 +3
    Centre Clearances 9 11 -2
    Stoppage Clearances 23 21 +2
    Contested Marks 9 11 -2
    Marks Inside 50 11 13 -2
    Hitouts 39 18 +21
    Hitouts To Advantage 6 5 +1
    Tackles 57 65 -8
    Tackles Inside 50 7 14 -7
    Def One On One Loss % 12.5 15.4 -2.9

    Pressure

    Team pressure

    Quarter For Against
    1 176 173
    2 174 169
    3 178 186
    4 158 172
    Match 172 175

    Source: Herald Sun

    Most Pressure Points

    Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

    Player Pressure
    Acts     		Pressure
    Points     		Season
    Average*
    Angus Brayshaw 27 65 30.6
    Jack Viney 23 59 54.1
    Kysaiah Pickett 26 56 43.1
    Charlie Spargo 24 49 26.0
    James Jordon 20 36 20.0
    Alex Neal-Bullen 19 34 49.0
    Christian Petracca 15 34 48.9
    Tom Sparrow 15 33 43.3
    Jake Lever 15 32 14.5
    Jake Bowey 13 29 21.1
    Christian Salem 8 24 30.6
    Taj Woewodin 12 23 23.0
    Ed Langdon 11 21 27.7
    Lachie Hunter 13 20 23.7
    Max Gawn 11 20 21.9
    Brodie Grundy 7 19 26.5
    Judd McVee 9 18 18.8
    Trent Rivers 8 15 23.4
    Harrison Petty 7 15 20.4
    Steven May 6 15 14.2
    Ben Brown 9 15 11.6
    Jake Melksham 7 13 14.7
    Joel Smith 3 8 23.8

    * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

    Source: Herald Sun

    Time in Forward Half

    Quarter For Against
    1 31% 69%
    2 42% 58%
    3 64% 36%
    4 39% 61%
    Match 46% 54%

    Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations.

    Score Sources

    Summary

    Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

    Category For Against Diff
    G B T G B T
    Kick-in 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0
    Centre Bounce 2 1 13 1 1 7 +6
    Stoppage (Other) 3 2 20 1 1 7 +13
    Turnover 7 4 46 6 8 44 +2
    Category For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    Kick-in 0 2.8 0 2.5
    Centre Bounce 13 10.9 7 7.1
    Stoppage (Other) 20 21.8 7 20.8
    Turnover 46 53.6 44 39.6

    Chain start region

    Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

    Category Region For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    Kick-in D50 0 2.8 0 2.5
    Centre Bounce Centre 13 10.9 7 7.1
    Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.4 0 2.0
    Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 3.0 6 1.2
    Stoppage (Other) Wing 13 10.9 0 6.2
    Stoppage (Other) F50 1 7.5 1 11.3
    Turnover D50 14 10.5 1 5.2
    Turnover Centre 12 8.4 13 5.9
    Turnover Wing 20 28.4 23 20.4
    Turnover F50 0 6.2 7 8.0
    Region For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    D50 14 13.6 1 9.8
    Centre 31 22.3 26 14.2
    Wing 33 39.3 23 26.6
    F50 1 13.8 8 19.3

    Points from defensive half

    For Against
    Match Season Match Season
    51 34.6 8 22.6

    Shots at goal

    Team Shots G B T Acc.
    General Play
    Melbourne 7 4 3 27 57.1
    St Kilda 8 2 5 17 25.0
    Set Position
    Melbourne 11 8 2 50 72.7
    St Kilda 13 6 4 40 46.2

    Centre Bounce Attendances

      CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
    James Jordon 17 71 22.8 0.2
    Jack Viney 16 67 68.4 74.6
    Angus Brayshaw 15 62 21.1 16.0
    Max Gawn 14 58 48.3 65.5
    Christian Petracca 12 50 65.3 74.6
    Tom Sparrow 12 50 48.0 32.2
    Brodie Grundy 10 42 55.7 83.7
    Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 11.4 1.3
    Trent Rivers 0 0 4.5 0.0
    Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 3.3 3.5
    Harrison Petty 0 0 1.0 0.0
    Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
    James Harmes     27.8 14.6
    Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
    Jacob van Rooyen     5.3  
    Josh Schache     0.0 13.8

    Ruck Contests and Hitouts

    Ruck Contests

      Ruck
    Contests     		RC % 2023 % 2022 %
    Max Gawn 44 54 44.8 57.8
    Brodie Grundy 36 44 49.5 77.4
    Alex Neal-Bullen 1 1 0.1 0.0
    Ben Brown 0 0 3.0 3.6
    Harrison Petty 0 0 2.3 0.0
    Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0
    Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1
    Jacob van Rooyen     9.6  
    Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
    Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
    Clayton Oliver     0.0 0.0

    Hitouts

      Ruck
    Contests     		Hitouts To
    Adv.     		To Adv. %
    (2023)     		To Adv. %
    (2022)
    Max Gawn 44 21 4 30.6 33.6
    Brodie Grundy 36 17 2 30.8 30.2
    Alex Neal-Bullen 1 1 0 0.0  
    Harrison Petty 0 0 0 22.2  
    Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0 14.3
    Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
    Jacob van Rooyen       16.7  
    Josh Schache         33.3

    Opposition hitouts

      Ruck
    Contests     		Hitouts To
    Adv.
    Rowan Marshall 65 15 4
    Mitch Owens 5 2 1
    Anthony Caminiti 9 1 0

    Expected scores (Champion Data)

    61 - 68

    Thanks so much wheelo.

    Your key team stats has become a key part of my post match rituals - like buying the Sunday newspapers used to be back in the day - and a key element in gettimg my head  around the game 

     

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    Melbourne Match Statistics (Sorted by Disposals) Coach: Simon Goodwin  
     
    Player K HB D M G B T HO GA I50 CL CG R50 FF FA AF SC
    Steven May 23 6 29 12 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 5 1 1 123 147
    Jack Viney 11 14 25 3 0 0 6 0 0 3 2 5 0 2 1 93 86
    Angus Brayshaw 11 14 25 5 0 0 7 0 1 6 3 1 2 1 0 105 91
    Christian Salem 17 7 24 8 0 0 3 0 0 2 1 3 6 1 1 99 86
    James Jordon 10 13 23 4 0 0 4 0 0 6 2 4 0 1 2 79 80
    Tom Sparrow 7 15 22 3 2 0 3 0 0 2 6 4 1 0 2 78 94
    Lachlan Hunter 11 10 21 6 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 2 1 0 78 80
    Ed Langdon 12 9 21 4 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 0 80 76
    Trent Rivers 11 10 21 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 79 74
    Christian Petracca 8 12 20 5 4 0 5 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 104 120
    Jake Lever 12 7 19 9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 1 82 90
    Jake Bowey 11 8 19 5 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 0 0 76 69
    Max Gawn 11 5 16 6 0 0 2 21 1 5 4 3 1 0 1 87 84
    Judd McVee 9 6 15 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 53 66
    Brodie Grundy 6 7 13 3 0 0 4 17 1 1 7 5 2 2 4 64 64
    Harrison Petty 7 6 13 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 62 74
    Alex N-Bullen 9 3 12 4 1 0 2 1 1 5 0 4 1 1 1 58 49
    Taj Woewodin 5 7 12 0 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 2 0 2 1 37 43
    Ben Brown 6 5 11 4 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 46 52
    Charlie Spargo 7 4 11 6 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 1 52 48
    Jake Melksham 10 0 10 6 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 62 50
    Kysaiah Pickett 2 2 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 26 23
    Joel Smith 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
    		 
     
    		 
    Kozzy other than pressure acts did not have a good night
  • Quote
    • Thanks 1

    Loss on expected scores - ironic.

    But also an accurate reflection of the game - the saints played well.

    I assume expected score is what lyon was referring to as score equity in his presser when he noted they won on score equity - and derided the media for not analysing with 'all your resources'

     

  • Quote
    • Like 4
    42 minutes ago, binman said:

    Oh my God- a pattern!

    I don't know for a fact, but I'm pretty sure the exact same thing happened kadtbyear too in that same period (woeful accuracy rounds 13-19, not the flag bit).

    So, three years in a row in EXACTLY the same phase of the season our accuracy is under water. 

    That is not a coincidence.

     

    But it’s not some unique Melbourne problem that will suddenly come good for us and not anyone else.  It’s every team and relative and we are a relatively poor team when conditions don’t suit.

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/963488/data-reveals-startling-goalkicking-trend-as-winter-takes-hold

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

    But it’s not some unique Melbourne problem that will suddenly come good for us and not anyone else.  It’s every team and relative and we are a relatively poor team when conditions don’t suit.

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/963488/data-reveals-startling-goalkicking-trend-as-winter-takes-hold

    Indeed, that is exactly right.

    Which is why it is important when the media parrot some supposedly revelatory single data point to consider context and apply some critical thought - a point I made previously in tgis thread.

    For example, our accuracy falls off a cliff. The key questions might be how badly and why? 

    To answer the first question, helpful data is afl wide accuracy in this same period to get a sense of how bug an issue it is. Instead the media just compare our, say rounds 13-19 accuracy with our own figures from rounds one 1-12. Which of course is useful data - but in isolation, only to a point, pardon the pun. 

    The second question is also interesting.

    My take is the two key factors why there is a league wide drop off are likely to be weather and fatigue (both accumulative and loading realated).

    To test that hypothesis there are other data points that could be looked at to support, or contradict it - kms run at speed for instance.

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    • Like 3

    By the by, last night's game, and the data from our previous campaigns and the afl wide data, make a mockery of the rubbish the media has been spouting about our supposed connection, forward issues etc etc.

    I mean, for petes sake, the issue is accuracy (actually, i would contend accuracy us a symptom, not the issue per se).

    We had one less scoring shots last night, in perfect condition, than we did last week. 

    We lost last week and everyone goes into hysterical abour some concocted scoring and connection drama.

    Our much maligned 'efficiency' was 36% last week - as defined by the afl as the percentage of shots on goal per inside 50 (the losing side in that match went at 26% efficiency).

    Last night our efficiency was 39%.

    We had less shots for goal this week, but win by four goals, and there us not a peep about  connection and scoring issues - despite our efficiency barely improving.

    Did the saints have a connection issue last night (by the by their efficiency was almost rhe dame as ours - 40%)?

    Or an accuracy issue?

    Rhetorical question.

    Edited by binman

  • Quote
    • Like 4
    On 7/5/2023 at 5:34 PM, WheeloRatings said:

    Is this what you had in mind?

    Set Shots

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Fremantle 194 114 48 32 58.8
    Geelong 244 142 66 36 58.2
    Essendon 191 109 60 22 57.1
    Melbourne 219 124 68 27 56.6
    Brisbane 229 129 74 26 56.3
    North Melbourne 169 95 50 24 56.2
    Greater Western Sydney 200 111 63 26 55.5
    West Coast 155 86 45 24 55.5
    Western Bulldogs 219 120 73 26 54.8
    St Kilda 184 100 53 31 54.3
    Richmond 192 104 52 36 54.2
    Collingwood 214 115 67 32 53.7
    Adelaide 221 118 68 35 53.4
    Sydney 217 113 72 32 52.1
    Carlton 228 118 70 40 51.8
    Gold Coast 197 99 76 22 50.3
    Port Adelaide 240 118 87 35 49.2
    Hawthorn 183 89 57 37 48.6

    General Play

    Team Shots Goals Behinds No score Accuracy
    Collingwood 186 90 54 42 48.4
    North Melbourne 140 62 50 28 44.3
    Adelaide 219 96 75 48 43.8
    Port Adelaide 204 88 73 43 43.1
    Sydney 193 82 76 35 42.5
    Brisbane 202 85 71 46 42.1
    Geelong 152 63 58 31 41.4
    Essendon 196 81 75 40 41.3
    St Kilda 183 73 55 55 39.9
    Fremantle 166 66 55 45 39.8
    Gold Coast 179 71 66 42 39.7
    Greater Western Sydney 177 69 66 42 39.0
    Melbourne 185 72 68 45 38.9
    Hawthorn 162 61 63 38 37.7
    Richmond 178 66 72 40 37.1
    Western Bulldogs 152 55 68 29 36.2
    West Coast 133 44 48 41 33.1
    Carlton 152 46 64 42 30.3

     

    Wow, this is telling.

    Collingwood's accuracy from general play is deadly.

    Very interesting.

  • Quote
    • Like 3

    Does anyone know the last time we won a game when the expected score wasn't in our favour? 

    The irony in losing the majority of key indicators and not playing our brand compared to the last 3 weeks.....and yet we win the game. 

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Author

    Round 17, 2023 Marvel Stadium - Saints vs Demons

    A significant lift on the team rating but still 7% off this season's average.  A fair part of that no doubt the Clarry effect.

    May winding back the clock to eclipse his 4.300 rating in Rnd 10 vs the Power with his best result for the season.

    Maxy a bit of a concern, 26% off his season average.

    Kozzy falling off a cliff.... down a massive 72%!

    McVee well up on his usual output.  A bit strange as i didn't notice him as much as i usually do.  Would be interested to know what others thought of his game?

    Demons

    Scoring Efficiency  
    Disposals Per Goal  32.17
    % In50s Goal 26.10
    Conversion %

    63.20

    Saints

    Scoring Efficiency

    		 
    Disposals Per Goal  51.50
    % In50s Goal 15.40
    Conversion %

    44.40

    Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
    S May 5.000 1 3.152 58.63
    Jake Lever 4.100 2 3.039 34.91
    C Petracca 4.075 3 4.722 -13.70
    J Jordon 4.050 4 3.986 1.61
    T Sparrow 3.950 5 2.959 33.49
    A Brayshaw 3.850 6 3.757 2.48
    L Hunter 3.800 7 2.929 29.74
    C Salem 3.500 8 3.367 3.95
    T Rivers 3.325 9 3.670 -9.40
    Ed Langdon 3.325 9 3.157 5.32
    H Petty < 77% 3.300 11 2.454 34.47
    B Grundy 3.150 12 3.160 -0.32
    J Viney 3.100 13 3.704 -16.31
    J McVee 2.875 14 2.207 30.27
    Max Gawn 2.350 15 3.182 -26.15
    A N-Bullen 2.325 16 2.572 -9.60
    J Bowey 2.175 17 3.144 -30.82
    Ben Brown 2.050 18 2.106 -2.66
    C Spargo 2.025 19 1.891 7.09
    T Woewodin 1.750 20 - -
    J Melksham 1.200 21 1.509 -20.48
    K Pickett 0.650 22 2.308 -71.84
    J Smith > 17% 0.050 23 1.594 -96.86
    Team Rating 65.93   71.27 -7.50
    Top 6 25.03   26.23 -4.59
    Bottom 6 9.85   9.25 6.49

    < Subbed out / TOG %

    > Subbed in / TOG %

    Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

    Edited by Demon Dynasty

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    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    • Author

    Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 17, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

    Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
    C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
    C Petracca 4.681 2 4.456 5.05 2 0
    J Jordon > 3.995 3 3.164 26.26 9 6
    A Brayshaw 3.763 4 3.839 -1.98 5 1
    Jack Viney 3.663 5 3.971 -7.76 3 -2
    T Rivers < 3.648 6 2.423 50.56 18 12
    C Salem 3.386 7 3.363 0.68 7 0
    Steven May 3.284 8 3.971 -17.30 3 -5
    Ed Langdon 3.168 9 3.109 1.90 11 2
    B Grundy 3.159 10 - - - -
    Max Gawn 3.113 11 3.643 -14.55 8 -3
    Jake Lever 3.110 12 2.703 15.06 14 2
    Jake Bowey < 3.070 13 2.856 7.49 13 0
    T Sparrow 3.025 14 2.665 13.51 16 2
    L Hunter 2.987 15 - - - -
    A Tomlinson 2.965 16 2.079 42.62 22 6
    J Harmes > 2.804 17 3.082 -9.02 12 -5
    H Petty < 2.594 18 2.392 8.44 19 1
    M Hibberd < 2.589 19 2.613 -0.92 17 -2
    A N-Bullen 2.556 20 2.688 -4.91 15 -5
    K Chandler < 2.360 21 - - - -
    Judd McVee 2.248 22 - - - -
    B Fritsch 2.230 23 1.936 15.19 27 4
    K Pickett 2.189 24 2.118 3.35 21 -3
    J V Rooyen 2.183 25 - - - -
    Ben Brown < 2.095 26 1.762 18.90 29 3
    T McDonald 2.054 27 1.967 4.42 26 -1
    C Spargo < 1.904 28 1.981 -3.89 24 -4
    T Woewodin * 1.750 29 - - - -
    Joel Smith 1.541 30 2.239 -31.17 20 -10
    J Melksham > 1.429 31 1.947 -26.61 25 -6
    J Schache * 1.375 32 - - - -
    B Laurie < > * 1.300 33 - - - -
    D Turner < * 1.075 34 - - - -
    Team Rating 71.45   69.48 2.84    
    Top 6 26.15          
    Bottom 6 9.29          

    * Played less than two full matches (in total)

    < Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

    > Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

    Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

  • Quote
    • Thanks 2
     

    Everything McVee does is so good. He so very rarely turns it over and he doesn't just win 1v1s or intercept well, or show extreme composure under pressure, but he also does those clever little tap ons to team mates and away from opponents.

    He's having the sort of impact that Bowser had at the back end of 2021, but apart from a lull in form for 3 or 4 games from approximately R8-11, he's been great all year.

    I thought McVee's game was near flawless last night. The one turnover he had, I'm pretty sure he cleaned up straight away by winning it back.

    He's a ripper.

    Edited by A F

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    • Thanks 1
    On 7/9/2023 at 11:40 AM, RyanD said:

    Does anyone know the last time we won a game when the expected score wasn't in our favour? 

    The irony in losing the majority of key indicators and not playing our brand compared to the last 3 weeks.....and yet we win the game. 

    Richmond I think

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