Stats Files - 2023

[DeeZone 10,086]

8 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 16, 2023 TIO Traegar Park - Demons vs Giants

Much effort made by many only to result in a shocker forward of center (again).

At least 12 of the 22 a long way off their season averages and those averages include last week's poor outcome.  Some of them a mile off.  A few others holding up their end.  Viney, Bowey & Lever.  Petty a much better result vs his come back last week.

6.8% of inside 50s into goals has to be some sort of low record for us and the AFL surely.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	87.80
% In50s Goal	6.80
Conversion %	25.00

Giants

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	53.14
% In50s Goal	15.20
Conversion %	58.30

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
J Viney	4.350	1	3.654	19.05
C Petracca	3.975	2	4.775	-16.75
H Petty	3.950	3	2.275	73.63
J Bowey	3.875	4	3.078	25.89
A Brayshaw	3.700	5	3.761	-1.62
Jake Lever	3.650	6	2.992	21.99
Max Gawn	3.325	7	3.168	4.96
Ed Langdon	3.025	7	2.983	1.41
S May	2.950	9	3.168	-6.88
B Grundy	2.850	10	3.182	-10.43
C Salem	2.725	11	3.495	-22.03
T Rivers	2.475	12	3.757	-34.12
T Sparrow	2.450	13	2.998	-18.28
L Hunter	2.325	14	2.975	-21.85
B Brown	2.325	15	2.033	14.36
J Harmes	2.325	16	2.938	-20.86
J McVee	1.875	17	2.230	-15.92
K Chandler	1.500	18	2.423	-38.09
K Pickett	1.450	19	2.379	-39.05
J Melksham > 69%	1.150	20	1.437	-19.97
Joel Smith	0.925	21	1.817	-49.09
A N-Bullen	0.850	22	2.695	-68.46
B Fritsch < 7%	0.100	23	2.235	-95.53
Team Rating	58.03		71.52	-18.87
Top 6	23.50		26.43	-11.09
Bottom 6	7.75		9.36	-17.20

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Thanks DD the weather conditions were atrocious but our forward 50’s were even worse than that we are plumbing the depths with our conversion down to a record low of 25%. I hate to say it but we are currently a Mess.

[binman 43,717]

Expected score from Champion Data

77 - 43

Says it all. 

 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

1 minute ago, binman said:

Expected score from Champion Data

77 - 43

Says it all. 

 

Yes but what does it realllllllly say. 

 

[rpfc 28,736]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

Expected score from Champion Data

77 - 43

Says it all. 

 

So we were supposed to score 77 points from 73 entries into our forward line.

BEEP BEEP BEEP.

What’s that noise?

It’s the forward line connection.

Its dead.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 16, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.722	2	4.456	5.97	2	0
J Jordon >	3.986	3	3.164	25.98	9	6
A Brayshaw	3.757	4	3.839	-2.14	5	1
Jack Viney	3.704	5	3.971	-6.72	3	-2
T Rivers <	3.670	6	2.423	51.47	18	12
C Salem	3.367	7	3.363	0.12	7	0
Max Gawn	3.182	8	3.643	-12.65	8	0
B Grundy	3.160	9	-	-	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.157	10	3.109	1.54	11	1
Steven May	3.152	11	3.971	-20.62	3	-8
Jake Bowey <	3.144	12	2.856	10.08	13	1
Jake Lever	3.039	13	2.703	12.43	14	1
A Tomlinson	2.965	14	2.079	42.62	22	8
T Sparrow	2.959	15	2.665	11.03	16	1
L Hunter	2.929	16	-	-	-	-
J Harmes >	2.804	17	3.082	-9.02	12	-5
M Hibberd <	2.589	18	2.613	-0.92	17	-1
A N-Bullen	2.572	19	2.688	-4.32	15	-4
H Petty <	2.454	20	2.392	2.59	19	-1
K Chandler <	2.360	21	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.308	22	2.118	8.97	21	-1
B Fritsch	2.230	23	1.936	15.19	27	4
Judd McVee	2.207	24	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen	2.183	25	-	-	-	-
Ben Brown <	2.106	26	1.762	19.52	29	3
T McDonald	2.054	27	1.967	4.42	26	-1
C Spargo <	1.891	28	1.981	-4.54	24	-4
Joel Smith	1.594	29	2.239	-28.81	20	-9
J Melksham >	1.509	30	1.947	-22.50	25	-5
J Schache *	1.375	31	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	32	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	33	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	71.27		69.48	2.57

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[old55 23,687]

On 7/3/2023 at 7:11 AM, spirit of norm smith said:

+70 possessions. 
+42 contested possessions. 
+27 inside 50’s. 
+ 8 scoring shots. 
+15 free kicks. 
+19 clearances
lost by two points 

Goodwin.  Time to fix it.  You’re the coach.  Our forward structure is horrible.  Entries into forward 50 are haphazard.  “We’ve been working on it”.  Wow. It doesn’t show. It’s got worse in fact.  

Yeah, I notice you left out 26 to 12 shots. 36% shots per i50 vs 26% shots per i50.  Conversion was the problem.

[old55 23,687]

@WheeloRatings have you got goals, behinds and misses from set shots and general play for each team, please?

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

20 hours ago, old55 said:

@WheeloRatings have you got goals, behinds and misses from set shots and general play for each team, please?

Is this what you had in mind?

Set Shots

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Fremantle	194	114	48	32	58.8
Geelong	244	142	66	36	58.2
Essendon	191	109	60	22	57.1
Melbourne	219	124	68	27	56.6
Brisbane	229	129	74	26	56.3
North Melbourne	169	95	50	24	56.2
Greater Western Sydney	200	111	63	26	55.5
West Coast	155	86	45	24	55.5
Western Bulldogs	219	120	73	26	54.8
St Kilda	184	100	53	31	54.3
Richmond	192	104	52	36	54.2
Collingwood	214	115	67	32	53.7
Adelaide	221	118	68	35	53.4
Sydney	217	113	72	32	52.1
Carlton	228	118	70	40	51.8
Gold Coast	197	99	76	22	50.3
Port Adelaide	240	118	87	35	49.2
Hawthorn	183	89	57	37	48.6

General Play

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Collingwood	186	90	54	42	48.4
North Melbourne	140	62	50	28	44.3
Adelaide	219	96	75	48	43.8
Port Adelaide	204	88	73	43	43.1
Sydney	193	82	76	35	42.5
Brisbane	202	85	71	46	42.1
Geelong	152	63	58	31	41.4
Essendon	196	81	75	40	41.3
St Kilda	183	73	55	55	39.9
Fremantle	166	66	55	45	39.8
Gold Coast	179	71	66	42	39.7
Greater Western Sydney	177	69	66	42	39.0
Melbourne	185	72	68	45	38.9
Hawthorn	162	61	63	38	37.7
Richmond	178	66	72	40	37.1
Western Bulldogs	152	55	68	29	36.2
West Coast	133	44	48	41	33.1
Carlton	152	46	64	42	30.3

 

[old55 23,687]

4 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Is this what you had in mind?

Set Shots

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Fremantle	194	114	48	32	58.8
Geelong	244	142	66	36	58.2
Essendon	191	109	60	22	57.1
Melbourne	219	124	68	27	56.6
Brisbane	229	129	74	26	56.3
North Melbourne	169	95	50	24	56.2
Greater Western Sydney	200	111	63	26	55.5
West Coast	155	86	45	24	55.5
Western Bulldogs	219	120	73	26	54.8
St Kilda	184	100	53	31	54.3
Richmond	192	104	52	36	54.2
Collingwood	214	115	67	32	53.7
Adelaide	221	118	68	35	53.4
Sydney	217	113	72	32	52.1
Carlton	228	118	70	40	51.8
Gold Coast	197	99	76	22	50.3
Port Adelaide	240	118	87	35	49.2
Hawthorn	183	89	57	37	48.6

General Play

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Collingwood	186	90	54	42	48.4
North Melbourne	140	62	50	28	44.3
Adelaide	219	96	75	48	43.8
Port Adelaide	204	88	73	43	43.1
Sydney	193	82	76	35	42.5
Brisbane	202	85	71	46	42.1
Geelong	152	63	58	31	41.4
Essendon	196	81	75	40	41.3
St Kilda	183	73	55	55	39.9
Fremantle	166	66	55	45	39.8
Gold Coast	179	71	66	42	39.7
Greater Western Sydney	177	69	66	42	39.0
Melbourne	185	72	68	45	38.9
Hawthorn	162	61	63	38	37.7
Richmond	178	66	72	40	37.1
Western Bulldogs	152	55	68	29	36.2
West Coast	133	44	48	41	33.1
Carlton	152	46	64	42	30.3

 

That's great thanks. I was actually thinking of the GWS match specifically- can you please just give me that for comparison.

[The heart beats true 18,144]

***Trigger Warning. Potentially optimistic information ahead.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/963110/sharpshooters-to-shankers-can-history-repeat-for-misfiring-dees-

This quote stood out….

’Melbourne suffered a similar slump at a similar stage of the year in 2021, when Simon Goodwin's men went at an AFL-worst 37.5 per cent goalkicking accuracy from rounds 13-19.’

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

10 hours ago, old55 said:

That's great thanks. I was actually thinking of the GWS match specifically- can you please just give me that for comparison.

Oh sorry, that was buried in my original post. Here it is again below - Melbourne had 5 'no scores' from general play, GWS 0; Melbourne 2 'no scores' from set shots, GWS 1. Melbourne went at 12% accuracy from general play (2 goals from 17 shots, GWS 3 goals from 6 shots)!

Team	Shots	G	B	T	Acc.
General Play
Melbourne	17	2	10	22	11.8
Greater Western Sydney	6	3	3	21	50.0
Set Position
Melbourne	9	3	4	22	33.3
Greater Western Sydney	6	4	1	25	66.7

 

The circles in the left half of the following field map are Melbourne's shots from general play. Melbourne's only set shot within 30 metres was Melksham's on the tight angle.

 

 

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 17, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231708

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	75.4	75.7	-0.3
Kicking Efficiency	70.4	68.9	+1.5
Metres Gained	5409	5364	+45
Inside 50s	46	52	-6
Shots At Goal	18	21	-3
Shots Per Inside 50	39.1	40.4	-1.3
Contested Possessions	130	138	-8
Ground Ball Gets	93	101	-8
Intercepts	76	76	+0
Intercept Marks	23	20	+3
Centre Clearances	9	11	-2
Stoppage Clearances	23	21	+2
Contested Marks	9	11	-2
Marks Inside 50	11	13	-2
Hitouts	39	18	+21
Hitouts To Advantage	6	5	+1
Tackles	57	65	-8
Tackles Inside 50	7	14	-7
Def One On One Loss %	12.5	15.4	-2.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	176	173
2	174	169
3	178	186
4	158	172
Match	172	175

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average*
Angus Brayshaw	27	65	30.6
Jack Viney	23	59	54.1
Kysaiah Pickett	26	56	43.1
Charlie Spargo	24	49	26.0
James Jordon	20	36	20.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	19	34	49.0
Christian Petracca	15	34	48.9
Tom Sparrow	15	33	43.3
Jake Lever	15	32	14.5
Jake Bowey	13	29	21.1
Christian Salem	8	24	30.6
Taj Woewodin	12	23	23.0
Ed Langdon	11	21	27.7
Lachie Hunter	13	20	23.7
Max Gawn	11	20	21.9
Brodie Grundy	7	19	26.5
Judd McVee	9	18	18.8
Trent Rivers	8	15	23.4
Harrison Petty	7	15	20.4
Steven May	6	15	14.2
Ben Brown	9	15	11.6
Jake Melksham	7	13	14.7
Joel Smith	3	8	23.8

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	31%	69%
2	42%	58%
3	64%	36%
4	39%	61%
Match	46%	54%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category	For			Against			Diff
	G	B	T	G	B	T
Kick-in	0	0	0	0	0	0	+0
Centre Bounce	2	1	13	1	1	7	+6
Stoppage (Other)	3	2	20	1	1	7	+13
Turnover	7	4	46	6	8	44	+2

Category	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	0	2.8	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	13	10.9	7	7.1
Stoppage (Other)	20	21.8	7	20.8
Turnover	46	53.6	44	39.6

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	D50	0	2.8	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	Centre	13	10.9	7	7.1
Stoppage (Other)	D50	0	0.4	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	6	3.0	6	1.2
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	13	10.9	0	6.2
Stoppage (Other)	F50	1	7.5	1	11.3
Turnover	D50	14	10.5	1	5.2
Turnover	Centre	12	8.4	13	5.9
Turnover	Wing	20	28.4	23	20.4
Turnover	F50	0	6.2	7	8.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
D50	14	13.6	1	9.8
Centre	31	22.3	26	14.2
Wing	33	39.3	23	26.6
F50	1	13.8	8	19.3

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season
51	34.6	8	22.6

Shots at goal

Team	Shots	G	B	T	Acc.
General Play
Melbourne	7	4	3	27	57.1
St Kilda	8	2	5	17	25.0
Set Position
Melbourne	11	8	2	50	72.7
St Kilda	13	6	4	40	46.2

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2023 %	2022 %
James Jordon	17	71	22.8	0.2
Jack Viney	16	67	68.4	74.6
Angus Brayshaw	15	62	21.1	16.0
Max Gawn	14	58	48.3	65.5
Christian Petracca	12	50	65.3	74.6
Tom Sparrow	12	50	48.0	32.2
Brodie Grundy	10	42	55.7	83.7
Kysaiah Pickett	0	0	11.4	1.3
Trent Rivers	0	0	4.5	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	3.3	3.5
Harrison Petty	0	0	1.0	0.0
Clayton Oliver			82.8	86.5
James Harmes			27.8	14.6
Tom McDonald			5.4	0.0
Jacob van Rooyen			5.3
Josh Schache			0.0	13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2023 %	2022 %
Max Gawn	44	54	44.8	57.8
Brodie Grundy	36	44	49.5	77.4
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	1	0.1	0.0
Ben Brown	0	0	3.0	3.6
Harrison Petty	0	0	2.3	0.0
Steven May	0	0	0.1	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.1	0.1
Jacob van Rooyen			9.6
Tom McDonald			8.9	7.0
Josh Schache			6.7	13.4
Clayton Oliver			0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2023)	To Adv. % (2022)
Max Gawn	44	21	4	30.6	33.6
Brodie Grundy	36	17	2	30.8	30.2
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	1	0	0.0
Harrison Petty	0	0	0	22.2
Ben Brown	0	0	0	0.0	14.3
Tom McDonald				25.0	33.3
Jacob van Rooyen				16.7
Josh Schache					33.3

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Rowan Marshall	65	15	4
Mitch Owens	5	2	1
Anthony Caminiti	9	1	0

Expected scores (Champion Data)

61 - 68

[binman 43,717]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:33 PM, The heart beats true said:

***Trigger Warning. Potentially optimistic information ahead.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/963110/sharpshooters-to-shankers-can-history-repeat-for-misfiring-dees-

This quote stood out….

’Melbourne suffered a similar slump at a similar stage of the year in 2021, when Simon Goodwin's men went at an AFL-worst 37.5 per cent goalkicking accuracy from rounds 13-19.’

Oh my God- a pattern!

I don't know for a fact, but I'm pretty sure the exact same thing happened kadtbyear too in that same period (woeful accuracy rounds 13-19, not the flag bit).

So, three years in a row in EXACTLY the same phase of the season our accuracy is under water. 

That is not a coincidence.

 

[binman 43,717]

35 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 17, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231708

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	75.4	75.7	-0.3
Kicking Efficiency	70.4	68.9	+1.5
Metres Gained	5409	5364	+45
Inside 50s	46	52	-6
Shots At Goal	18	21	-3
Shots Per Inside 50	39.1	40.4	-1.3
Contested Possessions	130	138	-8
Ground Ball Gets	93	101	-8
Intercepts	76	76	+0
Intercept Marks	23	20	+3
Centre Clearances	9	11	-2
Stoppage Clearances	23	21	+2
Contested Marks	9	11	-2
Marks Inside 50	11	13	-2
Hitouts	39	18	+21
Hitouts To Advantage	6	5	+1
Tackles	57	65	-8
Tackles Inside 50	7	14	-7
Def One On One Loss %	12.5	15.4	-2.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	176	173
2	174	169
3	178	186
4	158	172
Match	172	175

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average*
Angus Brayshaw	27	65	30.6
Jack Viney	23	59	54.1
Kysaiah Pickett	26	56	43.1
Charlie Spargo	24	49	26.0
James Jordon	20	36	20.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	19	34	49.0
Christian Petracca	15	34	48.9
Tom Sparrow	15	33	43.3
Jake Lever	15	32	14.5
Jake Bowey	13	29	21.1
Christian Salem	8	24	30.6
Taj Woewodin	12	23	23.0
Ed Langdon	11	21	27.7
Lachie Hunter	13	20	23.7
Max Gawn	11	20	21.9
Brodie Grundy	7	19	26.5
Judd McVee	9	18	18.8
Trent Rivers	8	15	23.4
Harrison Petty	7	15	20.4
Steven May	6	15	14.2
Ben Brown	9	15	11.6
Jake Melksham	7	13	14.7
Joel Smith	3	8	23.8

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	31%	69%
2	42%	58%
3	64%	36%
4	39%	61%
Match	46%	54%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category	For			Against			Diff
	G	B	T	G	B	T
Kick-in	0	0	0	0	0	0	+0
Centre Bounce	2	1	13	1	1	7	+6
Stoppage (Other)	3	2	20	1	1	7	+13
Turnover	7	4	46	6	8	44	+2

Category	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	0	2.8	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	13	10.9	7	7.1
Stoppage (Other)	20	21.8	7	20.8
Turnover	46	53.6	44	39.6

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	D50	0	2.8	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	Centre	13	10.9	7	7.1
Stoppage (Other)	D50	0	0.4	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	6	3.0	6	1.2
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	13	10.9	0	6.2
Stoppage (Other)	F50	1	7.5	1	11.3
Turnover	D50	14	10.5	1	5.2
Turnover	Centre	12	8.4	13	5.9
Turnover	Wing	20	28.4	23	20.4
Turnover	F50	0	6.2	7	8.0

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
D50	14	13.6	1	9.8
Centre	31	22.3	26	14.2
Wing	33	39.3	23	26.6
F50	1	13.8	8	19.3

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season
51	34.6	8	22.6

Shots at goal

Team	Shots	G	B	T	Acc.
General Play
Melbourne	7	4	3	27	57.1
St Kilda	8	2	5	17	25.0
Set Position
Melbourne	11	8	2	50	72.7
St Kilda	13	6	4	40	46.2

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2023 %	2022 %
James Jordon	17	71	22.8	0.2
Jack Viney	16	67	68.4	74.6
Angus Brayshaw	15	62	21.1	16.0
Max Gawn	14	58	48.3	65.5
Christian Petracca	12	50	65.3	74.6
Tom Sparrow	12	50	48.0	32.2
Brodie Grundy	10	42	55.7	83.7
Kysaiah Pickett	0	0	11.4	1.3
Trent Rivers	0	0	4.5	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	3.3	3.5
Harrison Petty	0	0	1.0	0.0
Clayton Oliver			82.8	86.5
James Harmes			27.8	14.6
Tom McDonald			5.4	0.0
Jacob van Rooyen			5.3
Josh Schache			0.0	13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2023 %	2022 %
Max Gawn	44	54	44.8	57.8
Brodie Grundy	36	44	49.5	77.4
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	1	0.1	0.0
Ben Brown	0	0	3.0	3.6
Harrison Petty	0	0	2.3	0.0
Steven May	0	0	0.1	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.1	0.1
Jacob van Rooyen			9.6
Tom McDonald			8.9	7.0
Josh Schache			6.7	13.4
Clayton Oliver			0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2023)	To Adv. % (2022)
Max Gawn	44	21	4	30.6	33.6
Brodie Grundy	36	17	2	30.8	30.2
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	1	0	0.0
Harrison Petty	0	0	0	22.2
Ben Brown	0	0	0	0.0	14.3
Tom McDonald				25.0	33.3
Jacob van Rooyen				16.7
Josh Schache					33.3

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Rowan Marshall	65	15	4
Mitch Owens	5	2	1
Anthony Caminiti	9	1	0

Expected scores (Champion Data)

61 - 68

Thanks so much wheelo.

Your key team stats has become a key part of my post match rituals - like buying the Sunday newspapers used to be back in the day - and a key element in gettimg my head  around the game 

 

[Kent 2,913]

Melbourne Match Statistics (Sorted by Disposals) Coach: Simon Goodwin     Player K HB D M G B T HO GA I50 CL CG R50 FF FA AF SC Steven May 23 6 29 12 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 5 1 1 123 147 Jack Viney 11 14 25 3 0 0 6 0 0 3 2 5 0 2 1 93 86 Angus Brayshaw 11 14 25 5 0 0 7 0 1 6 3 1 2 1 0 105 91 Christian Salem 17 7 24 8 0 0 3 0 0 2 1 3 6 1 1 99 86 James Jordon 10 13 23 4 0 0 4 0 0 6 2 4 0 1 2 79 80 Tom Sparrow 7 15 22 3 2 0 3 0 0 2 6 4 1 0 2 78 94 Lachlan Hunter 11 10 21 6 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 2 1 0 78 80 Ed Langdon 12 9 21 4 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 0 80 76 Trent Rivers 11 10 21 6 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 79 74 Christian Petracca 8 12 20 5 4 0 5 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 104 120 Jake Lever 12 7 19 9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 1 82 90 Jake Bowey 11 8 19 5 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 0 0 76 69 Max Gawn 11 5 16 6 0 0 2 21 1 5 4 3 1 0 1 87 84 Judd McVee 9 6 15 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 53 66 Brodie Grundy 6 7 13 3 0 0 4 17 1 1 7 5 2 2 4 64 64 Harrison Petty 7 6 13 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 62 74 Alex N-Bullen 9 3 12 4 1 0 2 1 1 5 0 4 1 1 1 58 49 Taj Woewodin 5 7 12 0 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 2 0 2 1 37 43 Ben Brown 6 5 11 4 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 46 52 Charlie Spargo 7 4 11 6 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 1 52 48 Jake Melksham 10 0 10 6 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 62 50 Kysaiah Pickett 2 2 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 26 23 Joel Smith 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Kozzy other than pressure acts did not have a good night

[binman 43,717]

Loss on expected scores - ironic.

But also an accurate reflection of the game - the saints played well.

I assume expected score is what lyon was referring to as score equity in his presser when he noted they won on score equity - and derided the media for not analysing with 'all your resources'

 

[Watson11 2,241]

42 minutes ago, binman said:

Oh my God- a pattern!

I don't know for a fact, but I'm pretty sure the exact same thing happened kadtbyear too in that same period (woeful accuracy rounds 13-19, not the flag bit).

So, three years in a row in EXACTLY the same phase of the season our accuracy is under water. 

That is not a coincidence.

 

But it’s not some unique Melbourne problem that will suddenly come good for us and not anyone else.  It’s every team and relative and we are a relatively poor team when conditions don’t suit.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/963488/data-reveals-startling-goalkicking-trend-as-winter-takes-hold

[binman 43,717]

1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

But it’s not some unique Melbourne problem that will suddenly come good for us and not anyone else.  It’s every team and relative and we are a relatively poor team when conditions don’t suit.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/963488/data-reveals-startling-goalkicking-trend-as-winter-takes-hold

Indeed, that is exactly right.

Which is why it is important when the media parrot some supposedly revelatory single data point to consider context and apply some critical thought - a point I made previously in tgis thread.

For example, our accuracy falls off a cliff. The key questions might be how badly and why? 

To answer the first question, helpful data is afl wide accuracy in this same period to get a sense of how bug an issue it is. Instead the media just compare our, say rounds 13-19 accuracy with our own figures from rounds one 1-12. Which of course is useful data - but in isolation, only to a point, pardon the pun. 

The second question is also interesting.

My take is the two key factors why there is a league wide drop off are likely to be weather and fatigue (both accumulative and loading realated).

To test that hypothesis there are other data points that could be looked at to support, or contradict it - kms run at speed for instance.

[binman 43,717]

By the by, last night's game, and the data from our previous campaigns and the afl wide data, make a mockery of the rubbish the media has been spouting about our supposed connection, forward issues etc etc.

I mean, for petes sake, the issue is accuracy (actually, i would contend accuracy us a symptom, not the issue per se).

We had one less scoring shots last night, in perfect condition, than we did last week. 

We lost last week and everyone goes into hysterical abour some concocted scoring and connection drama.

Our much maligned 'efficiency' was 36% last week - as defined by the afl as the percentage of shots on goal per inside 50 (the losing side in that match went at 26% efficiency).

Last night our efficiency was 39%.

We had less shots for goal this week, but win by four goals, and there us not a peep about  connection and scoring issues - despite our efficiency barely improving.

Did the saints have a connection issue last night (by the by their efficiency was almost rhe dame as ours - 40%)?

Or an accuracy issue?

Rhetorical question.

Edited July 9, 2023 by binman

[Adam The God 30,403]

On 7/5/2023 at 5:34 PM, WheeloRatings said:

Is this what you had in mind?

Set Shots

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Fremantle	194	114	48	32	58.8
Geelong	244	142	66	36	58.2
Essendon	191	109	60	22	57.1
Melbourne	219	124	68	27	56.6
Brisbane	229	129	74	26	56.3
North Melbourne	169	95	50	24	56.2
Greater Western Sydney	200	111	63	26	55.5
West Coast	155	86	45	24	55.5
Western Bulldogs	219	120	73	26	54.8
St Kilda	184	100	53	31	54.3
Richmond	192	104	52	36	54.2
Collingwood	214	115	67	32	53.7
Adelaide	221	118	68	35	53.4
Sydney	217	113	72	32	52.1
Carlton	228	118	70	40	51.8
Gold Coast	197	99	76	22	50.3
Port Adelaide	240	118	87	35	49.2
Hawthorn	183	89	57	37	48.6

General Play

Team	Shots	Goals	Behinds	No score	Accuracy
Collingwood	186	90	54	42	48.4
North Melbourne	140	62	50	28	44.3
Adelaide	219	96	75	48	43.8
Port Adelaide	204	88	73	43	43.1
Sydney	193	82	76	35	42.5
Brisbane	202	85	71	46	42.1
Geelong	152	63	58	31	41.4
Essendon	196	81	75	40	41.3
St Kilda	183	73	55	55	39.9
Fremantle	166	66	55	45	39.8
Gold Coast	179	71	66	42	39.7
Greater Western Sydney	177	69	66	42	39.0
Melbourne	185	72	68	45	38.9
Hawthorn	162	61	63	38	37.7
Richmond	178	66	72	40	37.1
Western Bulldogs	152	55	68	29	36.2
West Coast	133	44	48	41	33.1
Carlton	152	46	64	42	30.3

 

Wow, this is telling.

Collingwood's accuracy from general play is deadly.

Very interesting.

[RyanD 290]

Does anyone know the last time we won a game when the expected score wasn't in our favour? 

The irony in losing the majority of key indicators and not playing our brand compared to the last 3 weeks.....and yet we win the game. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Round 17, 2023 Marvel Stadium - Saints vs Demons

A significant lift on the team rating but still 7% off this season's average.  A fair part of that no doubt the Clarry effect.

May winding back the clock to eclipse his 4.300 rating in Rnd 10 vs the Power with his best result for the season.

Maxy a bit of a concern, 26% off his season average.

Kozzy falling off a cliff.... down a massive 72%!

McVee well up on his usual output.  A bit strange as i didn't notice him as much as i usually do.  Would be interested to know what others thought of his game?

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	32.17
% In50s Goal	26.10
Conversion %	63.20

Saints Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	51.50
% In50s Goal	15.40
Conversion %	44.40

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
S May	5.000	1	3.152	58.63
Jake Lever	4.100	2	3.039	34.91
C Petracca	4.075	3	4.722	-13.70
J Jordon	4.050	4	3.986	1.61
T Sparrow	3.950	5	2.959	33.49
A Brayshaw	3.850	6	3.757	2.48
L Hunter	3.800	7	2.929	29.74
C Salem	3.500	8	3.367	3.95
T Rivers	3.325	9	3.670	-9.40
Ed Langdon	3.325	9	3.157	5.32
H Petty < 77%	3.300	11	2.454	34.47
B Grundy	3.150	12	3.160	-0.32
J Viney	3.100	13	3.704	-16.31
J McVee	2.875	14	2.207	30.27
Max Gawn	2.350	15	3.182	-26.15
A N-Bullen	2.325	16	2.572	-9.60
J Bowey	2.175	17	3.144	-30.82
Ben Brown	2.050	18	2.106	-2.66
C Spargo	2.025	19	1.891	7.09
T Woewodin	1.750	20	-	-
J Melksham	1.200	21	1.509	-20.48
K Pickett	0.650	22	2.308	-71.84
J Smith > 17%	0.050	23	1.594	-96.86
Team Rating	65.93		71.27	-7.50
Top 6	25.03		26.23	-4.59
Bottom 6	9.85		9.25	6.49

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited July 9, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 17, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.681	2	4.456	5.05	2	0
J Jordon >	3.995	3	3.164	26.26	9	6
A Brayshaw	3.763	4	3.839	-1.98	5	1
Jack Viney	3.663	5	3.971	-7.76	3	-2
T Rivers <	3.648	6	2.423	50.56	18	12
C Salem	3.386	7	3.363	0.68	7	0
Steven May	3.284	8	3.971	-17.30	3	-5
Ed Langdon	3.168	9	3.109	1.90	11	2
B Grundy	3.159	10	-	-	-	-
Max Gawn	3.113	11	3.643	-14.55	8	-3
Jake Lever	3.110	12	2.703	15.06	14	2
Jake Bowey <	3.070	13	2.856	7.49	13	0
T Sparrow	3.025	14	2.665	13.51	16	2
L Hunter	2.987	15	-	-	-	-
A Tomlinson	2.965	16	2.079	42.62	22	6
J Harmes >	2.804	17	3.082	-9.02	12	-5
H Petty <	2.594	18	2.392	8.44	19	1
M Hibberd <	2.589	19	2.613	-0.92	17	-2
A N-Bullen	2.556	20	2.688	-4.91	15	-5
K Chandler <	2.360	21	-	-	-	-
Judd McVee	2.248	22	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch	2.230	23	1.936	15.19	27	4
K Pickett	2.189	24	2.118	3.35	21	-3
J V Rooyen	2.183	25	-	-	-	-
Ben Brown <	2.095	26	1.762	18.90	29	3
T McDonald	2.054	27	1.967	4.42	26	-1
C Spargo <	1.904	28	1.981	-3.89	24	-4
T Woewodin *	1.750	29	-	-	-	-
Joel Smith	1.541	30	2.239	-31.17	20	-10
J Melksham >	1.429	31	1.947	-26.61	25	-6
J Schache *	1.375	32	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	33	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	71.45		69.48	2.84
Top 6	26.15
Bottom 6	9.29

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[Adam The God 30,403]

Everything McVee does is so good. He so very rarely turns it over and he doesn't just win 1v1s or intercept well, or show extreme composure under pressure, but he also does those clever little tap ons to team mates and away from opponents.

He's having the sort of impact that Bowser had at the back end of 2021, but apart from a lull in form for 3 or 4 games from approximately R8-11, he's been great all year.

I thought McVee's game was near flawless last night. The one turnover he had, I'm pretty sure he cleaned up straight away by winning it back.

He's a ripper.

Edited July 9, 2023 by A F

[BangBnagBang 703]

On 7/9/2023 at 11:40 AM, RyanD said:

Does anyone know the last time we won a game when the expected score wasn't in our favour? 

The irony in losing the majority of key indicators and not playing our brand compared to the last 3 weeks.....and yet we win the game. 

Richmond I think