H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals

[layzie 32,938]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

All fair points. And yes, I probably should've clarified that were parts of the second half where they didn't give us a sniff rather than the entire half. Agreed we had our chances in the opening minutes of the 3rd quarter to possibly break their spirit but as usual our lack of efficiency and poise cost us.

However, I gave up trying write Collingwood off the day they couldn't have played any worse against North but yet still won. They may be on the same fairy tale path as we were last year.

Sometimes you just have to shrug your shoulders and acknowledge that a team that goes 11-0 are the real deal, no matter how they get the job done.

They may fail spectacularly come finals, however they play the G very well and have enough players who have been there and done it in September, particularly the 2018 campaign.

(Sincerely Hope I'm wrong)

And even if they do bomb, who on earth is going to criticise them after where they were 3 months ago?

It's a free hit.

Edited August 9, 2022 by layzie

[ElDiablo14 4,933]

5 minutes ago, layzie said:

And even if they do bomb, who on earth is going to criticise them after where they were 3 months ago?

It's a free hit.

Well I guess if they implode in finals and next year they are back to the wilderness, all of the current hype will be forgotten..

 

[layzie 32,938]

8 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Well I guess if they implode in finals and next year they are back to the wilderness, all of the current hype will be forgotten..

 

This is what I'm hoping for, and it's not that far wide of the mark. They still have an older list profile.

[cookieboc 740]

we got this

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,641]

10 hours ago, DubDee said:

as the great Meatloaf said - that ain't bad

Yep and didn't he put on a show for the ages on GF day!

[layzie 32,938]

2 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Yep and didn't he put on a show for the ages on GF day!

He took the words right out of our mouths 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,641]

1 hour ago, cookieboc said:

we got this

Conversely ... 2021?

I like that record 80% record the MFC has of converting minor premerships into flags.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,652]

19 hours ago, faultydet said:

People still looking for a reason to ignore the fact we are not a patch on last year's team will hold on for dear life to things like "percentage as a chance of winning the flag"

We need to reverse the 10 round long up-down cycle if we are to salute again. We just don't look all that capable of doing that right now. We've lost the killer instinct and league leading fitness that we enjoyed last year.

I'm hoping it's a mental thing and when it really matters - that is, in September - the team will get back to playing at its best.

It's not great, though, to be looking for "reasons" like this in an effort to justify our sub-standard performances. 

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

If the Pies lose this week they could be 5th after the weekend. A truer reflection of where they are at.

[ElDiablo14 4,933]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If the Pies lose this week they could be 5th after the weekend. A truer reflection of where they are at.

Definitely they are overachieving, but of course their supporter base is delusional and think they are a good chance to make it to the GF 🤣

[JJR 681]

They're on a miracle run atm,  we clearly gave them this game with our missed opportunities and some woeful inside 50 decisions, you'll see how they go against Sydney in a couple days. You can't just keep winning like this in footy. It'll catch up to them. Come finals time I only still think 3 teams can actually win it. Geelong, us and Sydney. Our best still tops Geelongs best imo. Will we find our best? I hope so. 

Edited August 10, 2022 by JJR

[layzie 32,938]

23 minutes ago, JJR said:

They're on a miracle run atm,  we clearly gave them this game with our missed opportunities and some woeful inside 50 decisions, you'll see how they go against Sydney in a couple days. You can't just keep winning like this in footy. It'll catch up to them. Come finals time I only still think 3 teams can actually win it. Geelong, us and Sydney. Our best still tops Geelongs best imo. Will we find our best? I hope so. 

I really hope when it comes, it comes with a bang. Not a gallant loss, a real thud. A team brings more pressure, more execution and shuts them down belting them back to the stone age. Heads drop and the wheels fall off. 

[ElDiablo14 4,933]

19 minutes ago, layzie said:

I really hope when it comes, it comes with a bang. Not a gallant loss, a real thud. A team brings more pressure, more execution and shuts them down belting them back to the stone age. Heads drop and the wheels fall off. I

I know we don't like to talk about it but... Something like our PF in 2018. No more MFCSS after we won our premiership there.

[layzie 32,938]

Just now, ElDiablo14 said:

I know we don't like to talk about it but... Something like our PF in 2018. No more MFCSS after we won our premiership there.

Thart's right, hopefully all signs are pointing to something like this after the ridiculous number of 'penalty shootout' wins they've had. 

[ElDiablo14 4,933]

8 minutes ago, layzie said:

Thart's right, hopefully all signs are pointing to something like this after the ridiculous number of 'penalty shootout' wins they've had. 

I am sure if we had been as ruthless as Geelong is atm, we would've crushed those Pies. Just look at what Geelong did to St Kilda, we should've done the same!!

[Fanatique Demon 2,624]

19 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Get on this...

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2014/2/16/pythagorean-expectation-for-vflafl-and-the-nrl

and pre-season 2022 interpretation

Thanks Onion. Is there an up-to-date Pythagorean ladder?

[Engorged Onion 10,137]

18 minutes ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Thanks Onion. Is there an up-to-date Pythagorean ladder?

I’ve tried doing one myself. I know nothing about maths at this level, but I can’t work out what the ‘exponent’ should be for AFL specifically. There are calculators online for baseball and basketball. If someone could work out/find  the ‘exponent’ I can plug it all in.

 

[monoccular 17,328]

19 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Conversely ... 2021?

I like that record 80% record the MFC has of converting minor premerships into flags.

MFC have 100% conversion, in the past 58 years, of minor premiers to winning the big one!!

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

5 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

I’ve tried doing one myself. I know nothing about maths at this level, but I can’t work out what the ‘exponent’ should be for AFL specifically. There are calculators online for baseball and basketball. If someone could work out/find  the ‘exponent’ I can plug it all in.

 

6 hours ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Thanks Onion. Is there an up-to-date Pythagorean ladder?

Matter of Stats posts an AFL Team Dashboard after each round which includes their "WPF Expected Wins" (last column in first image below) rank and the "Expected Win %" (far right of middle table of second graphic below). Melbourne 3rd, Collingwood 9th.

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-team-dashboards/matterofstats-2022-team-dashboard-for-round-21

Matter of Stats formula:

X = 0.164 x (SS For - SS Against) + 6.18 x (Own Conversion - Opponent Conversion)
Expected(Wins) = exp(X)/(1+exp(X))

While this isn't the Pythagorean expectation formula, in Matter of Stats' Pythagorean expectation post he indicated that "we find that the optimal value of k oscillates around 2 from about the late 1930s onwards". I haven't tried applying the Pythagorean expectation model myself.

[Engorged Onion 10,137]

Brilliant stuff @WheeloRatings ❤️💙 - can you confirm what WPF is an acronym for...

For those correlating % to Collingwoods finals aspirations  here is a nice little image.

Expected wins 55% of 20 matches - currently on 75% of matches won, thus a +4.1 games won differential.

 

With the notion that the team will regress back to the mean/average - somewhere somehow, their winning run should come to a dead stop. 😎

Edited August 10, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[Demon Dynasty 17,094]

43 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Matter of Stats posts an AFL Team Dashboard after each round which includes their "WPF Expected Wins" (last column in first image below) rank and the "Expected Win %" (far right of middle table of second graphic below). Melbourne 3rd, Collingwood 9th.

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-team-dashboards/matterofstats-2022-team-dashboard-for-round-21

Matter of Stats formula:

X = 0.164 x (SS For - SS Against) + 6.18 x (Own Conversion - Opponent Conversion)
Expected(Wins) = exp(X)/(1+exp(X))

While this isn't the Pythagorean expectation formula, in Matter of Stats' Pythagorean expectation post he indicated that "we find that the optimal value of k oscillates around 2 from about the late 1930s onwards". I haven't tried applying the Pythagorean expectation model myself.

Thanks for this.  Looking at the last set of Quarter by Quarter performace tables, it's clearly our last quarter performances (or lack thereof) that stand out for mine.

I could be wrong but from a very simplistic view it would appear we just arent able to maintain the output needed to hold teams off that can go longer into a match than we can.

So it is appearing that if we haven't put a team away by 3/4 time (say 6/7 goals up)  we are more than likely going to drop games against the high ranked clubs.

Assuming it is too late into the season to improve our fitness levels, goal kicking accuracy (for us) then becomes super critical to our success from here.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Demon Dynasty

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

30 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Brilliant stuff @WheeloRatings ❤️💙 - can you confirm what WPF is an acronym for...

For those correlating % to Collingwoods finals aspirations  here is a nice little image.

Expected wins 55% of 20 matches - currently on 75% of matches won, thus a +4.1 games won differential.

 

With the notion that the team will regress back to the mean/average - somewhere somehow, their winning run should come to a dead stop. 😎

Win Production Function:

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2011/5/22/win-production-functions-for-afl-teams-1897-to-2010.html

[In Harmes Way 7,712]

On 8/9/2022 at 10:16 PM, layzie said:

He took the words right out of our mouths 

[ElDiablo14 4,933]

Could someone check what was the average/mean H&A % of this millenia dynasties? Bears, Hawks and Richmond...during their dominance years only of course