I hate to be a stick in the mud, but the ghosts of 2004 linger for me. 

The last time we were on top of the ladder this deep into the season, we played and comfortably beat a weak Hawthorn side (the year before they hired Clarko) to go 14-4. We then went into a game against Port where we got smashed. We lost the next 3 (one inexplicably to a prosaic Carlton team made up of a Dad’s Army of rejects and second stringers), fell into 5th and got rolled by Essendon (on the tail end of their 2000 premiership team) in the elimination final. It took me time to come to grips with that loss as it seemed like in the month prior, we were well and truly on track to break our premiership drought.

This highlights how bloody important a top 4 finish is (and top 2 if possible). That ‘04 team had some silk, but it lacked key defenders, a true CHF and leadership in the guts. Robert Walls described us at the time as ‘nice men who play nice football with a couple of pop guns, not real enforcers, like Phil Read and Brad Miller to round things out.’ 

We now have the best chance of actually doing something in my 33 years supporting the club. We have blokes who can fly the flag (May, Viney), blokes who aren’t old school enforcers but can handle themselves, polish on the wings (Langdon has been a revelation), and three once in a generation players (Max, Tracc and Clarry). The ‘04 incarnation had one: Neita, and he was more a steady contributor and less a game breaker.

Thus, our time definitely is now, and we need to make the most of it over the next six weeks. The cup is won in September for sure, but ladder position is crucial right now.

 

Edited July 11, 20214 yr by Colin B. Flaubert

I'm just worried about essendon getting into the 8. They have a great % and if only gws won on the weekend at least they would have been a game and a half clear of them. They have a bit of an easy draw and play nth next week. 

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

At least its in our hands. They are very tough games on their home turf.

We win those and we cement top spot I reckon.

Hopefully Bb and Jack Viney are performing at their best soon.

Would love to see us just bury a team by ten goals. Hawks game is our best chance.

Mongrel time, moreso than ever. Go for the jugular, Dees. We need AVB to straighten up all opponents from now on and at the same time, establish and extend an attitudinal killer instinct across the whole team. We cannot lose one more match played in 2021; we all know what that includes. 

4 hours ago, Jaded said:

I agree. I don’t think they’ll actually play Cameron before finals, unless they start dropping games and a top 4 finish is in danger. If he does his hammy again and misses finals they won’t win a flag. They know it. 

With Scott whinging about 'long' games and wanting them shortened suggests he knows they won't win a flag with an ageing, slowing team.

He has also talked about resting players. 

Says it all about his concern of the chances of their best 22 list playing a long finals campaign. 

With games vs  Freo, Rich, Saints and GWS (contenders for the top 8) and Demons, he won't be able to so readily rest players like he did vs Carlton.

Edited July 12, 20214 yr by Lucifer's Hero

 

1 minute ago, Demonland said:

 

These probabilities are so stupid. As if Brisbane, PA or Sydney will not make the 8! 

What sort of world ending zombie apocalypse do they think will take place outside of Victoria for these teams to drop out?

Also strong LOL at 'mathematical' for Adelaide, Hawthorn and Norf. More mathematical they tank for draft picks! 

 

Like these stats, but expecting more twists and turns for all teams before the season is over.

 

5 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

WCE @ 21% is truly LOL!

They are on 8 wins so beat North tonight and they will be a game or two ahead of the other contenders.  Including tonight they have 4 more games at Optus and on paper an easier run home than other contenders for 7th and 8th.

I'd be putting their odds at 90+%

The Top 6 is set i reckon. 

Melbourne & Doggies will secure top 2. i think the other 2 top 4 positions are up for grabs. Geelong and Brisbane are most likely. Port & Sydney will finish 5,6. Outside of that you have Freo, WCE, Richmond, Saints, Essendon & GWS will be fighting for 5,6. I reckon the Tigers and WCE will find a way. 

Good game between Doggies G.C up coming this week. I can sniff another upset looming here. 

10 hours ago, Dr.D said:

Well I've got us dropping 3 games which according to my calculations puts us in 4th-5th spot and being tied with port on points so would need to beat them on % to get in.  Time to get ruthless in the next 2 weeks. None of this 2-4 goal win crap. Blow them out of the  water!

Despite your bravado and LNP type claims of the truth Dr you are not always right!!!

I would be surprised if we win all of our last 6 games but believe that 4 Wins should get us Top2 which is what we want.

I am supremely confident that In Finals at the G we will beat Power Cats and Lions but fear Dogs and Swans.

we may be lucky not to have to play Swans any way or at the SCG as my time due to Covid (Struggled with ground dimensions etc vs Pies IMO on QB) and Dogs are dangerous because of their game plan and all out attack which needs a healthy score yo best on occasions. Our pressure vs them is ( as against all teams) not negotiable.

Plenty of chances for upsets with the Saints Freo snd Bombers all capable of beating Dogs Lions Cats and Power but not Swans on their last 2 rounds form. 

7 minutes ago, CYB said:

The Top 6 is set i reckon. 

Melbourne & Doggies will secure top 2. i think the other 2 top 4 positions are up for grabs. Geelong and Brisbane are most likely. Port & Sydney will finish 5,6. Outside of that you have Freo, WCE, Richmond, Saints, Essendon & GWS will be fighting for 5,6. I reckon the Tigers and WCE will find a way. 

Good game between Doggies G.C up coming this week. I can sniff another upset looming here. 

Really now that's about 0.009%!!

You are the same person that says Dogs will finish TOP2  You can't have them Losing to Suns snd making Top2 really???

3 minutes ago, 58er said:

Really now that's about 0.009%!!

You are the same person that says Dogs will finish TOP2  You can't have them Losing to Suns snd making Top2 really???

Who says its 0.009%?  The odds are often misleading. We all expect the Doggies to win this week. But away to an inform GCS is definitely a danger game and you'd be mad to say that the Suns are not a decent chance. 

 

As we have witnessed from results in the past couple of weeks crystal ball gazing is a waste of time. 

I fined this more fun than most of the games. I particularly like watching the Tigers and Hawks slide towards the bottom. 

34 minutes ago, 58er said:

Despite your bravado and LNP type claims of the truth Dr you are not always right!!!

I would be surprised if we win all of our last 6 games but believe that 4 Wins should get us Top2 which is what we want.

I am supremely confident that In Finals at the G we will beat Power Cats and Lions but fear Dogs and Swans.

we may be lucky not to have to play Swans any way or at the SCG as my time due to Covid (Struggled with ground dimensions etc vs Pies IMO on QB) and Dogs are dangerous because of their game plan and all out attack which needs a healthy score yo best on occasions. Our pressure vs them is ( as against all teams) not negotiable.

Plenty of chances for upsets with the Saints Freo snd Bombers all capable of beating Dogs Lions Cats and Power but not Swans on their last 2 rounds form. 

Of course 4 wins gets us top 2. 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We haven't beaten Hawks or GC yet. 

23 minutes ago, CYB said:

Who says its 0.009%?  The odds are often misleading. We all expect the Doggies to win this week. But away to an inform GCS is definitely a danger game and you'd be mad to say that the Suns are not a decent chance. 

 

I made up those odds because of the other ones bring both true and also unrealistic.

Of course  it's about 5% chance that Dogs  could lose to Suns. Where is it going to be played ? But beating Tigers and GWS is different yo beating Dogs.
 

Suns will have to kick 13/17 goals IMO.to win.

You didn't answer my question about us Top2 ? Ignored as Dogsare our most likely team to stop us I reckon. And they won't be in the Top2 if they lose to the Suns!!!

10 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Of course 4 wins gets us top 2. 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We haven't beaten Hawks or GC yet. 

That's why I didn't nominate the teams we would beat Dr. But I believe we will win 4 games minimum to finish inTop2.

56 minutes ago, 58er said:

I made up those odds because of the other ones bring both true and also unrealistic.

Of course  it's about 5% chance that Dogs  could lose to Suns. Where is it going to be played ? But beating Tigers and GWS is different yo beating Dogs.
 

Suns will have to kick 13/17 goals IMO.to win.

You didn't answer my question about us Top2 ? Ignored as Dogsare our most likely team to stop us I reckon. And they won't be in the Top2 if they lose to the Suns!!!

Where was the question? You seem to make up the odds to suit your hypothesis which i find amusing.

I think i am 100% right that you dont know whats going to happen. Who would have thought that the Doggies wouldnt give up a yelp in being dismantled by a young and hungrier Swans. [censored] happens in this business and the Suns are much more than a 5% chance against a mediocre Dogs backline. 

Now we're a lock for finals, I feel like we should recognise that, esp after the last 2 years.

Having said that, the fact it's a non-event shows how high expectations are which is really good too.

Congrats to the entire club to get us so quickly to the position where we're unhappy with anyone outside the top 4.

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

WCE @ 21% is truly LOL!

They are on 8 wins so beat North tonight and they will be a game or two ahead of the other contenders.  Including tonight they have 4 more games at Optus and on paper an easier run home than other contenders for 7th and 8th.

I'd be putting their odds at 90+%

The way they're playing at the moment they're no guarantee to beat North, or anyone else for that matter. even if they did sneak into the 8 the team that plays them should feel like it's Christmas 

4 hours ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

I hate to be a stick in the mud, but the ghosts of 2004 linger for me. 

The last time we were on top of the ladder this deep into the season, we played and comfortably beat a weak Hawthorn side (the year before they hired Clarko) to go 14-4. We then went into a game against Port where we got smashed. We lost the next 3 (one inexplicably to a prosaic Carlton team made up of a Dad’s Army of rejects and second stringers), fell into 5th and got rolled by Essendon (on the tail end of their 2000 premiership team) in the elimination final. It took me time to come to grips with that loss as it seemed like in the month prior, we were well and truly on track to break our premiership drought.

This feels very different to 2004 to me.

T

Edited July 12, 20214 yr by xarronn
Error

1 hour ago, Dwight Schrute said:

The way they're playing at the moment they're no guarantee to beat North, or anyone else for that matter. even if they did sneak into the 8 the team that plays them should feel like it's Christmas 

Very true.  But giving Eagles a 21% chance of making finals was pretty silly by whoever in the AFL did the ratings.

1 hour ago, Pollyanna said:

This feels very different to 2004 to me.

On the face of things, I fully agree. As outlined in the post, I feel we have the areas covered that we didn’t in 2004.
 

We’ll find out more in 6 weeks time.

4 hours ago, 58er said:

That's why I didn't nominate the teams we would beat Dr. But I believe we will win 4 games minimum to finish inTop2.

That's fine. I agree that 4 games will do that.  I, for one, see 3 wins 3 losses which puts us potentially 5th if we don't get our % up.