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Match Scores Differential - 2021

Engorged Onion
Engorged Onion
in Melbourne Demons

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So this thread is a work in progress, is it meaningful data? I'm not so sure... as one could argue the scoring shots are an output of everything else. Anyway, I'll keep pumping it out weekly

Is anyone still using the AFLpro link on the website? @binman? Does that have a heat map of scores?

I thought I'd start a thread looking at

  • the amount we are scoring
  • the differential
  • anyone else's input into patterns, methodology, tactics, location

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-04-12 at 11.26.04 am.png

Edited by Engorged Onion
error riddled data :)

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      On 12/04/2021 at 01:19, Engorged Onion said:

    So this thread is a work in progress, is it meaningful data? I'm not so sure... as one could argue the scoring shots are an output of everything else.

    Is anyone still using the AFLpro link on the website? @binman? Does that have a heat map of scores?

    I thought I'd start a thread looking at

    • the amount we are scoring
    • the differential
    • anyone else's input into patterns, methodology, tactics, location

     

     

    Screen Shot 2021-04-12 at 11.16.21 am.png

    Our cumulative for is wrong.

    No way we have kicked more goals than behinds.

     

    Edit -  yup 50.58 is more like it unfortunately!

    Edited by Pickett2Jackson

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    Onion it tells me we are easily getting into 50, by skill and hard work, for a shot and we are not hitting the scoreboard

    When we start to do that we will smash some teams. Also shows the quality of our defensive set up

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    And as per 2019, club are kicking amazingly accurate scores against us.

    I mean who kicks just 2 behinds in a game!

    And Geelong didn't score a behind in the middle 2 quarters.

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      On 12/04/2021 at 01:21, Pickett2Jackson said:

    Our cumulative for is wrong.

    No way we have kicked more goals than behinds.

    Cumualtive total is 50/58

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    Nice work Engorge

    Scoring shots differential is the key. 
    this is just waiting for a Key Forward to step in. 
    Bayley has kicked 10 so far

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    We also have not been swamped in the first q other than vs gws , we have been able to finish the longer quarters  too , kicking goals. Our defence has been pretty tight may ( until yesterday ) lever , tomlimson  and salem have been good and Max going back has made it easier for us to repel attacks. Alot of kicking at goals have been from angles rather that at front . Brown and weed coming back should make more leads  out of the goal square   

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    Just digging through related stats of curiosity;

    We've been fairly inaccurate and collectively 'they' have been unusually accurate. The 39.25 against us is only less accurate than Collingwood's opponents who have scored 48.29.

    That combination has created the odd looking stat of having 11 goals and 33 behinds more than our opponents, from just 35 additional inside 50s!

    We actually lead the competition for inside 50s and with a total of 50.58 we are behind only the Crows (56.59), Bulldogs (59.55) and Swans (65.56!) for total scoring shots and two of those teams have played North, who average 17.15 against them.

    In other news, Ben Brown has kicked 287.148 (66%) in his career.  Just say'n, could be helpful.

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    I was thinking of something similar the other day.

    If Melbourne’s goals were behinds, and their behind goals, and the same for their opponents, it would be:

    Melbourne For :  58.50.398. Against : 25.39.189

    A percentage of 210!

    It’s a pretty unsophisticated analysis though. I think the opposition’s accuracy is more because when Melbourne’s defensive structure gets cracked, it fails bad and gives up relatively easy shots, but it doesn’t crack that often.

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      On 12/04/2021 at 05:49, Little Goffy said:

    Just digging through related stats of curiosity;

    We've been fairly inaccurate and collectively 'they' have been unusually accurate. The 39.25 against us is only less accurate than Collingwood's opponents who have scored 48.29.

    That combination has created the odd looking stat of having 11 goals and 33 behinds more than our opponents, from just 35 additional inside 50s!

    We actually lead the competition for inside 50s and with a total of 50.58 we are behind only the Crows (56.59), Bulldogs (59.55) and Swans (65.56!) for total scoring shots and two of those teams have played North, who average 17.15 against them.

    In other news, Ben Brown has kicked 287.148 (66%) in his career.  Just say'n, could be helpful.

    Yep, we're generating plenty of scoring opportunities, but the difference between us and two of those other sides is that we don't concede huge scoring shots against.

    The 39.25 (64 shots) against us is significantly less than Adelaide's 53.47 (i.e. 100 shots) or Sydney's 47.52 (99).

    Even the Dogs have conceded 34.35 (i.e. 69 shots).

    I haven't been through the rest of the comp but I'm guessing our 64 shots against is going to be close to the best.

    We've had some bad luck with opposition accuracy and we're missing too many shots ourselves. If those regress back to the mean...jeepers...

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    Yea the accuracy one has been on my Mind, as others have pointed out we’re kicking for goal at 46% and our opps are 61%. We’ve had less shots on goals against us but we need to convert at a higher rate to really push us over the top for mine.

    Would love to see a “shot difficulty chart” that shows us where our shots are from vs the league and our efficiency va the league average.

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    Noticed Max yesterday seemed to be noticeably moving the ball, one way or the other, from the centre bounce more further forwards. With Kozzie and others there, this is causing beautiful headaches, and you miss your dead.

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      On 12/04/2021 at 12:51, willmoy said:

    Noticed Max yesterday seemed to be noticeably moving the ball, one way or the other, from the centre bounce more further forwards. With Kozzie and others there, this is causing beautiful headaches, and you miss your dead.

    I suspect you meant "you miss, you're dead", but your wording is also true. Just not on topic.

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    • Author

    Thank goodness for the fourth...1050589296_ScreenShot2021-04-18at6_47_03pm.png.1238f05d68c01baa73917d7814f7f6b1.png

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      On 18/04/2021 at 08:50, Engorged Onion said:

    Thank goodness for the fourth...1050589296_ScreenShot2021-04-18at6_47_03pm.png.1238f05d68c01baa73917d7814f7f6b1.png

    There’s an error in your “cumulative for” cell from today. Should be 65.72 I think

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    We have conceded 47.31, so that's 78 scoring shots against.

    For comparison with the rest of the top 10:

    • Bulldogs - 42.43 (85)
    • Brisbane - 58.48 (106)
    • Richmond - 53.55 (108)
    • Geelong - 54.55 (109)
    • West Coast - 59.53 (112)
    • Fremantle - 57.56 (113)
    • Port Adelaide - 54.59 (113)
    • Adelaide - 65.59 (124)
    • Sydney - 56.69 (125)
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    • Author
      On 19/04/2021 at 03:52, Cards13 said:

    If you're bored, maybe you could do it by qrt as well? 

    Ah mate, I keep getting typos and people keep correcting me - I wonder if I’m even cut out for data entry ??‍♂️

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    • Author
      On 19/04/2021 at 02:56, titan_uranus said:

    We have conceded 47.31, so that's 78 scoring shots against.

    For comparison with the rest of the top 10:

    • Bulldogs - 42.43 (85)
    • Brisbane - 58.48 (106)
    • Richmond - 53.55 (108)
    • Geelong - 54.55 (109)
    • West Coast - 59.53 (112)
    • Fremantle - 57.56 (113)
    • Port Adelaide - 54.59 (113)
    • Adelaide - 65.59 (124)
    • Sydney - 56.69 (125)

    Are we the ‘stingiest’ team (tm)?
    How good a word is ‘stingy’, it always reads as stingy even though you mean stingy. 

    Edited by Engorged Onion

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    • 5 months later...
    • Author

    Thought I'd bring up my own thread - just to be a smug bastard - around the meaningfulness of how we were tracking and the little observations that were there, even in the early round,  were actually a portent of what was to come.

    1121053941_ScreenShot2021-09-27at8_50_16pm.thumb.png.5a456d8b4964acc84fac15a14c5e2f1c.png

    Edited by Engorged Onion

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