2021 Herald Sun Predictions

[Tarax Club 4,183]

According to these soothsayers is 8thbourne (at best) enough or is Goody already Gawn?

[Supermercado 2,806]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

Bold prediction: Mark Williams to become interim coach of Melbourne after the Dees part ways with Simon Goodwin late in the season.

I just assumed Yze would take over straight away, but for sickos like me who've wanted Choco for the best part of a decade this would be wild. 

[Little Goffy 14,873]

Some curiousities there.

Three tip Petracca for the Brownlow while also tipping no Melbourne in finals.  How often does the brownlow go to a player not in a top-8 team?

Also interesting to see two tips of Goodwin out but even they can't agree on who replaces him. Oh, I know just the guy!

[In Harmes Way 7,866]

31 minutes ago, 58er said:

RU counting 2017 ? Not below average What is below our average?

And each year deserves to be assessed on its own.

Blind Harry the Miner can see our list and depth is 25% better and coaching at least that again. Also our game plan looked credible and much faster on Friday.

Oh sorry you can't See this development  Bandi let's just wait and see then. 

But 58, average should be measured with respect to the rest of the competition. We've finished 9th, 5th, 17th and 9th. The average of those is 10th, which is in the lower half of the table and therefore less than average.

With respect to other coaches, Goodwin has a 33-36 win loss record (47.8%). For comparison, Beveridge is 55.2%, Chris Scott 68%, Brad Scott 50.2%, Brett Ratten 51.4%, Hardwick 58.2%, Ross Lyon 56.4%. On this metric, he is also below average. 

Whilst I'm glass half full and think we'll have a good year (7-10), two journos have written off Goody before years end so it's not a totally outlandish opinion that we will continue to struggle under Goody at the helm.

Edited March 2, 2021 by In Harmes Way

[DubDee 26,538]

No one tipped us for the spoon.  this is above average for the Demons

[rufus 1,162]

Sadly the Saints and now Carlton have gone past us...players look hungrier for success than ours. Pies always hungrier than us so expect them to finish above us. That leaves limited room for us in the 8 without a change to how our guys compete.

For those who think Petracca and Oliver want success or will likely look elsewhere, what would define success? Only 8 out of 19 'experts' believe this team, including players like Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney, Gawn, May, Lever, Brown all in and around their prime years, are good enough for much more than 8th. So would making the 8 be enough for a successful season for this group? I think yes.

[58er 6,870]

48 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

But 58, average should be measured with respect to the rest of the competition. We've finished 9th, 5th, 17th and 9th. The average of those is 10th, which is in the lower half of the table and therefore less than average.

With respect to other coaches, Goodwin has a 33-36 win loss record (47.8%). For comparison, Beveridge is 55.2%, Chris Scott 68%, Brad Scott 50.2%, Brett Ratten 51.4%, Hardwick 58.2%, Ross Lyon 56.4%. On this metric, he is also below average. 

Whilst I'm glass half full and think we'll have a good year (7-10), two journos have written off Goody before years end so it's not a totally outlandish opinion that we will continue to struggle under Goody at the helm.

Thanks IHW 

But my opinion is that there are a lot of positive changes with recruiting development andCoaching positions.

There is no doubt that Goody will not survive with all this happening if we only end up 8-10th. Also Bartlett has him in his sights with the 4 year plan.

Not to make the Finals this  year with the improvements I have outlined will lead to Ooze  replacing him. I am wondering even now how he is tracking or is he just wAiting for selection and game day for nothing to change except our game plan which isn't a bad start really.

I am confident this won't happen By the way.

[58er 6,870]

6 minutes ago, rufus said:

Sadly the Saints and now Carlton have gone past us...players look hungrier for success than ours. Pies always hungrier than us so expect them to finish above us. That leaves limited room for us in the 8 without a change to how our guys compete.

For those who think Petracca and Oliver want success or will likely look elsewhere, what would define success? Only 8 out of 19 'experts' believe this team, including players like Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney, Gawn, May, Lever, Brown all in and around their prime years, are good enough for much more than 8th. So would making the 8 be enough for a successful season for this group? I think yes.

Not really Would need to win a Final or two I would think.

[58er 6,870]

7 minutes ago, rufus said:

Sadly the Saints and now Carlton have gone past us...players look hungrier for success than ours. Pies always hungrier than us so expect them to finish above us. That leaves limited room for us in the 8 without a change to how our guys compete.

For those who think Petracca and Oliver want success or will likely look elsewhere, what would define success? Only 8 out of 19 'experts' believe this team, including players like Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney, Gawn, May, Lever, Brown all in and around their prime years, are good enough for much more than 8th. So would making the 8 be enough for a successful season for this group? I think yes.

How have Carlton gone past us on the field Rufus.

Last time I looked we finished 9 th and they were 11 th and we won 2 more games and beat them in2020.

Anyong that says we didn't look aggressive and determined on Friday hasn't played sport at any level!!! Let alone top level.

Saints are ahead as last year made finals and got a Win! Who knows this year Wrll see soon at Marvel I  Round2 !

[DeeZone 10,530]

We burnt a lot of Journo's in the last two years so they have gone off us just when they should have got on us, in my humble opinion, if this doesn't rankle our players I will be surprised lots for the coaches to use. Still tipping top 4 finish.

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

21 minutes ago, rufus said:

 

Sadly the Saints and now Carlton have gone past us...players look hungrier for success than ours. Pies always hungrier than us so expect them to finish above us. That leaves limited room for us in the 8 without a change to how our guys compete

 

Was there some kind of hotdog eating contest to measure this hunger? Or is it a special sense that you have?

How would you have measured Port’s hunger before last season? 

[rufus 1,162]

1 minute ago, DeeSpencer said:

Was there some kind of hotdog eating contest to measure this hunger? Or is it a special sense that you have?

How would you have measured Port’s hunger before last season? 

Not sure about Port before this year. But I will give you a few predictions based my sense of the kind of culture MFC have vs. some other clubs. We'll see in a few years how close my sense is:

- Carlton will do better than us this year.

- Hawthorn (who right now I reckon have one of the worst lists for talent I have seen in a long time) will be competitive in the top 4 before we are.

- Essendon same as Hawthorn.

- North Melbourne will win games against us over the next few seasons because they'll go at us physically. 

Hope I'm wrong about all of these and our guys are now committed to a 'compete at all costs' culture but who knows.

[DubDee 26,538]

38 minutes ago, rufus said:

Sadly the Saints and now Carlton have gone past us...players look hungrier for success than ours. Pies always hungrier than us so expect them to finish above us. That leaves limited room for us in the 8 without a change to how our guys compete.

For those who think Petracca and Oliver want success or will likely look elsewhere, what would define success? Only 8 out of 19 'experts' believe this team, including players like Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney, Gawn, May, Lever, Brown all in and around their prime years, are good enough for much more than 8th. So would making the 8 be enough for a successful season for this group? I think yes.

Relax Rufus, these are the same 'experts' that said we had the best list and are favourites for the flag in 2019. not much thought goes into it for these blokes

Carlton haven't looked close at making finals the last few years. No way they have gone past us. The Demons will prove a few wrong this year

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

1 hour ago, In Harmes Way said:

But 58, average should be measured with respect to the rest of the competition. We've finished 9th, 5th, 17th and 9th. The average of those is 10th, which is in the lower half of the table and therefore less than average.

With respect to other coaches, Goodwin has a 33-36 win loss record (47.8%). For comparison, Beveridge is 55.2%, Chris Scott 68%, Brad Scott 50.2%, Brett Ratten 51.4%, Hardwick 58.2%, Ross Lyon 56.4%. On this metric, he is also below average. 

I’d give Goody an allowance for 2019, we shouldn’t have finished 17th nor won so few games. He contributed to mistakes that made us fall back to earth after 2018 - lack of run and skills - but the size of that drop isn’t really a fair indication of his coaching. 

The way I see it is he took over a rebuilding below 50% team, got them up the ladder and is now rejigging that side for another climb. His win percentage is lower than other coaches because we didn’t stay up for long because the list was really flawed. If he gets back in to the top 8 this year then he’s back on track

[DubDee 26,538]

These predictions are so dull. Most basically picking the same top 4-5 teams as 2020. The crazy Covid short quarters, 17 rounds, dont know where you are playing the next week - is hardly the prefect form line.

Port came 10th in 2019, they have been shown to be very inconsistent season to season. If Dixon goes down they could miss finals.  The Tiges I believe will start to dip from their amazing 4 years of form. Cotchin 31, Reiwolt almost past it, etc.

Freo, Carlton, GC could easily go on a run and make finals.

I believe the Demons will make finals and quite easily. The maturity and quality of Oliver, Trac, May etc will turn the wheel

[whatwhat say what 23,747]

21 minutes ago, rufus said:

Not sure about Port before this year. But I will give you a few predictions based my sense of the kind of culture MFC have vs. some other clubs. We'll see in a few years how close my sense is:

- Carlton will do better than us this year.

- Hawthorn (who right now I reckon have one of the worst lists for talent I have seen in a long time) will be competitive in the top 4 before we are.

- Essendon same as Hawthorn.

- North Melbourne will win games against us over the next few seasons because they'll go at us physically. 

Hope I'm wrong about all of these and our guys are now committed to a 'compete at all costs' culture but who knows.

the mfcss is strong in you, young padawan

Edited March 2, 2021 by whatwhatsaywhat

[defuture15 902]

If petracca wins the brownlow then Clarry must have missed most of the year!

[binman 44,776]

I think a huge factor this season will be aerobic fitness.

And it is a factor that works in our favor.

We were super fit coming into last season. Unfortunately the 20 min quarters took away our comparative advantage. 

I think it is a reasonable assumption that we have at least maintained, and hopefully improved our fitness. If this is the case we will be well prepared for the change back to 30 minute quarters.

20% more game time, 10 minutes a quarter of 'red time' and a reduction in interchange rotations will make a huge impact. You could see it in the tigers practice game how the game opened up at the end of each quarter. And just as was often the case last year, even with the shorter quarters, we were at our best late. 

I thought the Cats would do ok last year, in large part because the shorter quarters would mitigate against having such an old team. I predict the converse will be true this year and they will be found out big time. I don't think they will make the eight. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by binman

[rufus 1,162]

2 minutes ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

the mfcss is strong in you, young padawan

Like all of us, been burnt many times!

I do admire those with eternal optimism though. If/when the wheel does eventually turn they will have the most satisying celebrations.

[rjay 25,408]

1 minute ago, binman said:

I thought the Cats would do ok last year, in large part because the shorter quarter would mitigate against having such an old teram. I predict the converse will be true this year and they will be found out big time. I don't think they will make the eight. 

Beat me to it 'bin'...

My bold prediction is the Cats won't make the 8.

[58er 6,870]

46 minutes ago, rufus said:

Not sure about Port before this year. But I will give you a few predictions based my sense of the kind of culture MFC have vs. some other clubs. We'll see in a few years how close my sense is:

- Carlton will do better than us this year.

- Hawthorn (who right now I reckon have one of the worst lists for talent I have seen in a long time) will be competitive in the top 4 before we are.

- Essendon same as Hawthorn.

- North Melbourne will win games against us over the next few seasons because they'll go at us physically. 

Hope I'm wrong about all of these and our guys are now committed to a 'compete at all costs' culture but who knows.

Boy Rufus  you haven't even started Pouring into the glass yet. 
mite no good we are-a basket case 

IMO we will be ahead of all those Clubs you mentioned  this year and will  a flag before them!  Oh and win the hot dog eating contest that another poster referred to!!!

[DubDee 26,538]

32 minutes ago, binman said:

I think a huge factor this season will be aerobic fitness.

And it is a factor that works in our favor.

We were super fit coming into last season. Unfortunately the 20 min quarters took away our comparative advantage. 

I think it is a reasonable assumption that we have at least maintained, and hopefully improved our fitness. If this is the case we will be well prepared for the change back to 30 minute quarters.

20% more game time, 10 minutes a quarter of 'red time' and a reduction in interchange rotations will make a huge impact. You could see it in the tigers practice game how the game opened up at the end of each quarter. And just as was often the case last year, even with the shorter quarters, we were at our best late. 

I thought the Cats would do ok last year, in large part because the shorter quarters would mitigate against having such an old team. I predict the converse will be true this year and they will be found out big time. I don't think they will make the eight. 

very good point. Our best 25, age-wise are at a perfect stage to out-run teams this year and over the next couple.  Add in Bowey and the likes and we should actually be quick.

Landgon will dominate and be top 3 in the BnF.  he will love out running teams.

I have predicted the Cats will fall for years so I am gun shy, but surely Ducker Selwood and his grandpa mates must be worried 

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

37 minutes ago, binman said:

thought the Cats would do ok last year, in large part because the shorter quarters would mitigate against having such an old team. I predict the converse will be true this year and they will be found out big time. I don't think they will make the eight. 

I expect the inclusions of Higgins and Smith who have more to give, plus Cameron who is best running to space will take the load off Selwood, Hawkins and missing Ablett. Combine that with home ground average and it’s a finals team. But their game plan is very labour intensive. 
 

Id have West Coast as the old team most likely to struggle. They weren’t anything like a finals side when not at home last year. The key forwards are ageing and the backline is too. Yeo still out. One or two key injuries (Nic Nat, McGovern, Shuey) and Freo can flip the power balance in the west. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by DeeSpencer

[binman 44,776]

Higgins and Smith bring their average age up!

Both are 32, and surely are past peak fitness.

Cameron will help a bit I guess, but given he is a key forward he's not going to be giving their dad's army midfield mids a chop out.

Edited March 2, 2021 by binman

[dee-tox 4,835]

Think we'll finish top six if we can plug the gaps.

We still need to find two tall forwards, a wingman, a small defender, two consistent small forwards, and a couple of flanker types rotating through the midfield. 

That's quite a few ifs!